Cincinnati vs Oklahoma State Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -300 |
The first chapter of a new Big 12 rivalry will be written when the Oklahoma State Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bearcats. These teams are on opposite ends of the Big 12 standings, as OSU is tied for second with a 3-1 conference record, while Cincinnati occupies the cellar at 0-4.
But that doesn't mean there isn't any intrigue in this matchup.
These teams have mostly played tight games this season, and we should expect another competitive outing.
Oklahoma State comes into the game as a -7.5 favorite, while the over/under is at 53.5. Let's dive into the matchup and see where the betting value lies in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 28.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is learning the hard way what life is like in a Power Five league. The 2-5 Bearcats have lost five straight and a trip to one of the toughest environments in the conference is no easy task.
A lot of Cincinnati's issues can be traced back to an inconsistent passing game. It ranks 72nd in Passing Success Rate and quarterback Emory Jones has been just okay, completing 61.8% of his passes for 1,484 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
To his credit, Jones has added to the Bearcats' run game by rushing for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Cincinnati has been able to run the ball for five yards per carry, with running back Corey Kiner (563 rushing yards) leading the charge.
However, the defense has really limited the Bearcats this season. The unit has allowed at least 30 points in its past three games and even gave up 31 points to Miami (OH) in Week 3.
Interestingly, Cincinnati's rush defense has been pretty good and is 22nd overall in Rush Success rate Allowed.
Conversely, the passing defense has been a problem. Despite the fact that the Bearcats have 17 sacks, Cincinnati is 105th in Passing Success Allowed and 126th in defensive EPA per dropback. The run defense may be effective, but it hardly matters if the opposing quarterback can rack up yards through the air.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oh, how things have changed in Stillwater. Oklahoma State looked like a bad football team in the first month of the season. The Cowboys won ugly against FCS Arkansas State, pulled away late against an injury-riddled ASU team, got destroyed at home against South Alabama and then lost at Iowa State.
It was an ugly way to get to 2-2, but Oklahoma State's 3-0 record since has been very pretty. Consecutive wins over the Kansas schools righted the ship, and a 48-34 road win over West Virginia cemented the Cowboys as a top-end Big 12 team.
Learn the name Ollie Gordon II because he's the key to Oklahoma State's offense. His 816 rushing yards are eighth in the country and he's run for at least 120 yards in all four of the Cowboys' conference games. That includes a 282-yard, four-touchdown performance against the Mountaineers last week.
It also helps that OSU has finally stabilized the quarterback position with Alan Bowman. He won't be mistaken for a Heisman contender, but he can guide the offense and hit his receivers on the outside when called upon.
Defensively, the Cowboys have been solid. They are 47th in Rush Success Allowed and have 17 sacks, while also ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate.
Even though OSU's defense can't be fully trusted, it's still a competent unit.
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 55 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 94 | |
| Finishing Drives | 74 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 59 | 62 |  |
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 81 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 60 | |
| Quality Drives | 42 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 39 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 126 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 69 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 92 | 83 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.5 (46) | 24.5 (21) |
| Rush Rate | 57.2% (29) | 45.0% (114) |
Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State
Betting Pick & Prediction
The betting markets are favoring Oklahoma State by 7.5 points, and that seems reasonable. These teams haven't been on the same level in Big 12 play, and that should be pretty evident in this one.
The Cowboys have figured some things out on offense, and it looks like Cincinnati is still searching for answers. There should be some opportunities for the Bearcats' offense, but it's hard to trust Jones to take full advantage.
Expect another great game from Gordon and bet Oklahoma State to win and cover.
