Firday College Football Odds, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about college football games being played under the lights, and tonight is no different. We have two college football games on the docket this evening: UNLV vs. Kansas at 7 p.m. ET, followed by Arizona vs. Kansas State at 8 p.m. ET.
Our college football writers — Collin Wilson and Brett Pund — came through with a pick for each game. Coincidentally, they're both expecting plenty of points on Friday night.
So, let's enjoy what should be a wildly entertaining Friday night college football slate — because there's plenty more to come.
Continue reading for updated college football odds and predictions for Friday night's Week 3 NCAAF games.
College Football Pick for UNLV vs. Kansas
By Brett Pund
In a rematch of last season’s Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Kansas and UNLV meet on Friday night at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City.
The Jayhawks fell out of the Top 25 on Monday after getting upset on the road at Illinois in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Rebels have had an impressive start to the campaign, securing blowout wins over Houston and Utah Tech.
This was an entertaining bowl game with plenty of points, and I think we'll get that again here in Kansas City. My UNLV vs Kansas prediction is below.
UNLV Rebels Preview
Not many coaches have a debut season with their new program quite like Barry Odom did with UNLV last year. He guided the school to its first bowl game since 2013 and to nine wins for the first time since 1984.
The 2023 Mountain West Conference Coach of the Year matched his defensive expertise with a young, up-and-coming offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, to bring an exciting style to Las Vegas.
However, there was a big question coming into this season. How were the Rebels going to replace quarterback Jayden Maiava?
Odom hit the transfer portal to bring in two quality signal callers from the FCS level — Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell). Sluka earned the start in both victories and showed his ability both as a passer and with his legs.
If his fine play continues, this could be another special season at UNLV.
Kansas Jayhawks Preview
When coach Lance Leipold was hired, he knew it was going to take time to build Kansas into a respectable football program. However, he has everyone believing the Jayhawks can be more than a basketball school.
KU is fresh off its first winning season since 2007, and Leipold has led the program to its first back-to-back bowl trips since the 2006-07 teams.
The key to the success has been the offense, which has been led by great quarterback play. Whether that has been Jalon Daniels or Jason Bean, both have had success under Leipold.
The pressure is now all on Daniels after Bean departed in the offseason. He hasn't had great injury luck over the past two seasons, but there is no doubting his talent in Leipold’s offense.
Friday NCAAF Pick: UNLV vs Kansas
In the bowl game, the total closed at 65 points. I don’t see what has changed enough to cause this total to be over a full touchdown lower.
So, my best bet is for the game to fly over 57.5 points at FanDuel, which I would bet up to 59. I also don’t hate a look at the prop offered for both teams to score 20 or 25 points.
If we start with the Jayhawks, they bring back a veteran roster, but their main losses are along the defensive line. Five players who started last year departed, leaving a big hole for a team that already struggled to stop the run.
Kansas ranked last among Power 4 programs in defensive stuff rate. This is the same squad that ranked in the bottom 20 of P4 teams in line yards, rush success and rush explosiveness on defense.
This will be an area UNLV looks to attack, especially as the Rebels rank 20th in the country in yards per carry (6.29).
I’m also not buying the Mountain West squad’s improvement on defense after playing Houston and Utah Tech. Against the better teams in the MWC in 2023, UNLV allowed 31 points at Fresno State, 37 to San Jose State and 44 to Boise State.
Away from home last season, the Rebels’ games would have gone over this same total in five of seven. Meanwhile, only two Kansas home games finished with fewer than 57.5 points in 2023.
You do want to ensure you catch this before the key number of 59, which had the fourth-highest hit rate from Collin Wilson’s research last summer.
This was a shootout in the bowl game and I expect that to happen again.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 59)
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College Football Pick for Arizona vs. Kansas State
There may be no better measurement of a team's ability to compete in a new conference than taking on one of the best programs in the Midwest during a nonconference affair.
Arizona will officially begin Big 12 play in Week 5 against Utah, but first up is a nonconference showdown with fellow Big 12 member Kansas State in Manhattan.
Equipped with the new "Red Cats" uniform combination, Arizona will look to remain undefeated after a troubling offensive performance against Northern Arizona. The Wildcats did not convert a single third down in 10 attempts against the Lumberjacks.
Now, they'll look to bring a highly explosive passing attack to Bill Snyder Family Stadium.
Kansas State returns to Manhattan after surviving a nonconference trip to New Orleans. Tulane took a 20-10 lead into halftime against the Wildcats, and Kansas State needed 24 points in the second half with a few explosive drives to survive the Green Wave.
Tulane torched the secondary in the first half before K-State made adjustments on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Chris Klieman remarked that the Arizona defense could present issues to a Kansas State rushing attack that has been a staple ever since Klieman took over in 2019.
With the spread favoring the home team by a possession — Kansas State enters as a 7-point favorite with a total of 59.5 — where does the value lie in Friday Night Lights? Read on for my Arizona vs. Kansas State prediction.
Arizona Wildcats Preview
The offensive box scores from Arizona's victories over New Mexico and Northern Arizona could not be more different.
Offensive coordinator Dino Babers' offense hummed in the season opener to the tune of 61 points while gaining 77% of available yards by creating an explosive drive on half of its possessions.
Quarterback Noah Fifita didn't follow former coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, opening with a 422-yard, four-touchdown passing performance under new head coach Brent Brennan.
Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan took the early lead in the Biletnikoff Award race with all four touchdowns and 304 receiving yards spread out over 10 catches.
#CFB's Fastest Five Players of Week 1:
T-5. @ArizonaFBall's Tetairoa McMillan (@TMAC96795)@Big12Conference's Player of the Week 🌟 20 MPH 💨 #BearDown#Big12FB@ZonaZooOfficial@NFLDraftpic.twitter.com/0B22NFi6ka
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) September 3, 2024
The feelings were not so warm in a 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona, where the offensive line allowed 10 pressures in 29 dropbacks.
A number of starters missed the Northern Arizona game due to injury, including team captain and center Josh Baker. Jonah Savaiinaea made his first career start at left tackle, while right guard Ryan Stewart moved to right tackle.
Baker was the biggest piece missing on the line from a continuity standpoint, starting 28 straight games and serving as the primary snapper for Fifita.
The good news for the Wildcats was a stout defensive performance after allowing New Mexico to post 39 points in the season opener.
The nickel package defense that rotates from a 2-4-5 to a 3-3-5 lands in the top 50 of Action Network's Havoc Rankings, creating a respectable pass rush while ranking 11th in passes defensed through two games.
The bad news is that the Wildcats have consistently given up scores when opponents cross their 40-yard line. In two games against New Mexico and Northern Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed nine drives beyond the 40 with an average of 5.3 points per trip.
Kansas State Wildcats Preview
Kansas State continues to be a heavy rush advocate, executing ground attempts at a 57% rate.
Zone read and power run concepts continue to dominate the box score, as quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens average more than 6.3 yards per carry.
The Wildcats continue to meet the program standard with a top-30 rank in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. Where Kansas State struggles on offense is third down, converting just 6-of-20 attempts through Week 2.
GOODNESS GIDDENS ‼️
Avery Johnson's lob to DJ Giddens ties things right up as @KStateFB battles in New Orleans.#Big12FB | 📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/phkOEQ01Wf
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) September 7, 2024
Passing numbers have remained steady for Johnson through 48 dropbacks, recording the same rate of turnover-worthy plays and big-time throws as in 2023.
Early returns in passing categories, such as catchable ball, rate leave more to be desired. The 'Cats rank 91st of all FBS passing offenses in that area.
However, the good news comes with a crowded pocket, as Johnson has avoided getting sacked despite facing 12 pressures this season.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has several positive takeaways for his 3-3-5 personnel.
Kansas State ranks top-20 in defending the rush and Havoc. The Wildcats sit fourth nationally in creating tackles for loss, as offensive lines have had to contend with linebackers Austin Romaine and Desmond Purnell, who lead the team in tackles.
Havoc can be attributed to the edge positions, as Tobi Osunsanmi and Brendan Mott have combined for 14 pressures and five sacks.
The area of concern for Kansas State comes against the pass, ranking 128th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
A trio of starting safeties have provided the lowest coverage grades in the conference. Jordan Riley, Marques Sigle and VJ Payne have allowed 14-of-21 targets to be caught while failing to record a pass breakup.
Friday NCAAF Pick: Arizona vs Kansas State
Kansas State has been excellent at creating Havoc through two weeks of play, nearly leading the country in tackles for loss.
The Wildcats have also forced four fumbles and broken up three passes, indicating that Arizona's offense must improve on a bad offensive line performance against Northern Arizona.
There's good news for the offensive line, as Baker, the center, is practicing in preparation for Kansas State. The fifth-year senior was held out against Northern Arizona, a contributing factor to a number of offensive linemen playing new positions.
With improvement expected in pass protection for Arizona, the bigger question is if Fifita can take advantage of lackluster play by Kansas State's safeties.
Based on a limited sample from this season and all of 2023, Klanderman runs quarters and Cover 1 on 60% of coverage snaps using zone. Fifita has shredded quarters and Cover 1 at a high rate of success and EPA, similar to the man coverage seen on 25% of snaps last season.
Like last season, most of Fifita's success comes when attacking safeties between the hashes.
Kansas State's ground game is expected to have plenty of success on Friday night. Arizona's defense falls to 69th in Stuff Rate and 77th in Line Yards.
Kansas State ranks fourth in offensive momentum killer early this season, indicating the Wildcats do not stop themselves from getting into scoring position.
There are offensive advantages on both sides, particularly with an Arizona offensive line that may play with full health.
While Fifita and McMillan will create explosives in the pass game, Kansas State will look to Giddens and Johnson to extend drives and capitalize on scoring attempts.
Both teams rank top-20 in rush explosives, while Arizona has the advantage of ranking 18th in pass EPA.
With moderate wind not expected to limit kicking or passing, look for plenty of points between two offenses that have key advantages.
Pick: Over 59 (-120 or Better)
