College football bowl season — it's the most wonderful time of the year.
Instead of having a two-game appetizer on Friday like last year, we'll just dive right into a six-game slate on Saturday.
So, I thought I'd celebrate the beginning of bowl season by sharing my thoughts on all six games to either help you decide what to wager on or which teams to pick in the first handful of games for any pools.
Handicapping bowl games isn't easy. It all starts with the projections and value in the number, but understanding who is playing (check out our bowl opt-out, injury and transfer portal tracker), the matchup and each team's motivation are just as critical.
It's just as much art as it is science. Let's kick off the 2023 college football postseason and dive into Saturday's six-game bowl slate.
| Game | Time (ET) | Bet to Watch |
|---|---|---|
  | 11 a.m. | Georgia Southern -3 · Under 48.5 |
  | 2:15 p.m. | Jacksonville State -2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Miami (OH) +6.5 |
  | 5:45 p.m. | Over 51 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | 1H Under 24 |
  | 9:15 p.m. | Texas Tech Live |
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
11 a.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
From a motivational standpoint, I give the edge to Georgia Southern, which has no material opt-outs at the moment.
After finishing the season with four straight losses, the Eagles now have a chance to reset and finish their 2023 campaign off with a victory.
For what it's worth, it's historically been very profitable to back teams in bowls after stumbling down the stretch.
Meanwhile, I'm not sure how excited Ohio will be to head to Myrtle Beach to take on a 6-6 Georgia Southern squad. Not only did the Bobcats have lofty expectations coming into the season as the MAC favorites that they didn't meet, but they've also now dealt with as many critical opt-outs and injuries as any Group of Five team playing in a bowl.
That'll impact their on-field performance, but perhaps it also signals a lack of care for this game.
Over the past few weeks, Ohio has seen star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, its top two backs, top linebacker and one of its top two receivers all hit the portal. Keep in mind it already lost explosive wideout Jacoby Jones to an injury earlier this season.
Additionally, with backup quarterback CJ Harris — who led Ohio to a bowl victory last season — also out for the year, the Bobs will turn to Parker Navarro, who will be the team's leading rusher (107) and passer (65) left on the roster.
That's less than ideal, to say the least — even against a very bad Georgia Southern defense.
It's hard to project what we'll get from the Ohio offense with so much uncertainty, but I can't imagine the Bobs can do much, especially considering this offense was already completely void of any explosiveness even with Rourke at the helm with some of the starting skill-position players that won't be suiting up on Saturday.
The Ohio defense is solid, but Georgia Southern's offense has a pretty high floor that I just don't see Ohio's offense being able to match with all of its backups — unless Georgia Southern just completely no-shows, which is always a possibility early on during bowl season.
From a total perspective, Georgia Southern unders are always scary, but that's the only way I'd look in that department.
I imagine Ohio goes with a heavy rushing attack and leans on its stingy defense. I also just don't see either of these teams hitting many explosive plays, which is paramount when needing to get a bowl under to the window.
And while Georgia Southern's pass-heavy offense should put some drives together, the Eagles do struggle to finish off drives with touchdowns once the field shrinks due to how their offense is schemed. That could be even more problematic against an Ohio defense that excels once opponents get into scoring range, which could lead to more field goal attempts than touchdowns.
Those scenarios are an under bettor's best friend.
Bet to Watch: Georgia Southern -3 · Under 48.5
Notable Nugget
MAC teams are just 38-49-5 (43.7%) in bowls since 2005, failing to cover by -3.27 points per game — although they have been better of late, going 13-8-2 ATS over the past four seasons.
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Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
2:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Before the bowl matchups got released, I had Jacksonville State circled as one of the teams I really wanted to back from a motivational perspective.
In their first year at the FBS level, the Gamecocks didn't even know if they'd make a bowl despite winning eight games due to an archaic NCAA rule. However, with a few spots still open, they and JMU were able to lock one up.
This is a huge game for the program, and I'm sure all of the players will be excited to play in a bowl on national television.
Now, the Ragin' Cajuns did win their regular-season finale to get to 6-6 and this game will take place in New Orleans, so motivation might not be an issue. That said, I'm much more confident Jacksonville State will be enthusiastic about this game than a Louisiana team that had a disappointing season relative to recent standards in Lafayette.
Louisiana won't have key linebacker Kendré Gant (portal) and starting left tackle Nathan Thomas (surgery), while Jacksonville State will likely have to make do without injured EDGE Jaylen Swain.
However, other than those three, both teams look like they'll field close to full rosters, which is now becoming the exception, not the rule.
From a matchup perspective, Jacksonville State features one of the most run-heavy offenses in the country. That approach should pay dividends against a Louisiana defense that ranks 120th in the country in Rush Success Rate Allowed.
The Gamecocks also play super fast with the fewest seconds per play, as you might expect under head coach Rich Rodriguez. For what it's worth, nine straight overs have hit in games involving teams coached by Rodriguez.
Both offenses should move the ball consistently, but I'll side with the short running favorite with the superior defense. I'm confident they'll have full motivation to end the season with a win.
Bet to Watch:Jacksonville State -2.5
Notable Nugget
Underdogs with six or fewer wins against teams with seven-plus wins have gone 57-39-2 ATS (59.4%) since 2005.
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Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Miami (OH) finished off a dream season with a MAC Championship despite losing star quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season-ending injury midway through the season.
The RedHawks still found a way to get to Detroit and upset Toledo by leaning on one of the best defenses at the Group of Five level in addition to one of the nation's most elite special teams units.
Miami can use that same formula here, but there's certainly more uncertainty without quarterback Aveon Smith, who entered the transfer portal. As a result, the RedHawks will turn to third-string signal caller Henry Hesson, who has attempted only five career collegiate passes.
It's hard to know what to expect from Hesson, who's more of a pocket passer. But it's not like Smith was playing at an elite level under center. For example, he completed just six of his 16 pass attempts for 109 yards in the MAC Championship.
The RedHawks will miss Smith's mobility and will have to go back to more of a traditional rushing attack with Hesson under center.
While not ideal, they've had a few weeks to prepare for this game, and that approach should work against a horrendous Appalachian State rush defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Rush Success Rate and bottom-10 nationally in EPA per Rush Allowed.
I'm not saying this Miami (OH) offense will have an outburst, but it can hit some long runs and control the clock for stretches while taking a few deep shots sporadically throughout the game.
Head coach Chuck Martin, who boasts a 4-0 ATS mark in bowl games, will in all likelihood employ an extremely conservative game plan, playing the field-position game and relying on one of the best special teams groups in the country.
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have a very poor rushing offense, which is where you want to attack Miami's smaller defensive front. Plus, that task will be even tougher without leading rusher Nate Noel, who hit the portal.
That will, in turn, put a lot on the plate of quarterback Joey Aguilar, who will have to get the job done through the air with a very talented group of wideouts — a group that has some skills even without a few key depth pieces who also hit the portal.
However, that will play right into the teeth of an outstanding Miami (OH) secondary that just doesn't allow any explosive plays.
Aguilar is a bit of a gunslinger, so I expect him to make a few key mistakes against a very disciplined and experienced RedHawk back end that's seemingly never out of position and swarms to the ball as well as any Group of Five defense in the country.
Miami (OH) has been an against-the-spread darling all year due to all of the little things it does well. The RedHawks simply don't beat themselves and are basically a guarantee to win the special teams battle.
I once again think they're not getting enough respect in the market. While it's always a dicey proposition backing a third-string MAC quarterback, it's not like they were super reliant on production from the position.
Plus, judging by the comments and lack of other transfers, I think they'll be highly motivated to finish the season with 12 wins for the first time in 20 years when Big Ben Roethlisberger was at quarterback.
Meanwhile, App State may not be as excited after getting crushed in its conference title game.
I'd wait to see if a 7 pops in the market, but I'd still play the "running dog" RedHawks with the better defense, special teams and coach even at +6 or +6.5.
I'd also lean under, but I just hate going under lower totals in bowl games for the most part.
Bet to Watch:Miami (OH) +6.5
Notable Nugget
Bowl overs of 45 or less have hit at a 57% clip historically, as teams tend to play much looser in what are essentially exhibition games.
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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
5:45 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
When it comes to all of the intangibles surrounding this bowl, New Mexico State has a clear edge in my eyes.
Not only will the Aztecs be playing in their home state in a bowl head coach Jerry Kill has stated numerous times they wanted to play in last year, but they also should just be much more highly motivated after a surprise 10-win season. They'll also hold the coaching edge with Fresno State's Jeff Tedford missing the bowl game due to health concerns.
On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, I'm not sure how excited Fresno State will be to head to New Mexico to take on a CUSA team, especially after ending the season with a couple of lifeless efforts.
This has to be a pretty disappointing result for Fresno State, which controlled its own destiny for a Mountain West championship before a late-season collapse.
I actually was not a fan of either one of these teams this season and actually had desires of fading both with the right matchup. That's obviously not possible now, so I'd generally lean toward the team with all of the motivational edge, but this number is simply too far away from my projection to lay over a field goal with New Mexico State.
It's worth noting that quarterback Diego Pavia, who suffered an injury in the CUSA title game, will reportedly be fine for the bowl. For the most part, both teams should have close to full rosters.
However, as mentioned, Fresno State will be without Tedford. He's notorious for being very conservative, so you may see Fresno get a bit more aggressive when it comes to things like fourth-down decisions, which could certainly help the over.
In fact, that's where I'd look in this game.
While they do play at a very slow pace, the Aggies' well-schooled offense should move the ball at will against a very pedestrian Fresno State defense.
Meanwhile, the more pass-heavy and faster-tempo Fresno State offense, led by quarterback Mikey Keene, should have no issues carving up a weak New Mexico State stop unit that benefited from facing an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses.
Bet to Watch: Over 51
Notable Nugget
Bowl teams that finished with a losing ATS record have gone 32-15 ATS (68.1%) against teams that finished with a cover rate of 66.7% or greater since 2005, covering by just under four points per game. This trend applies to both Fresno State and Louisiana on Saturday.
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Boise State vs. UCLA
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Boise State had a remarkable in-season turnaround, going from firing its head coach to winning the Mountain West Championship.
Ever since Andy Avalos was fired, every report out of the Gem State has been about how the team rallied around interim (and now permanent) head coach Spencer Danielson. That certainly has continued to play out on the field.
As a result, I'm very confident the Broncos are excited to play in this bowl against a Power 5 team, and notching a victory over UCLA to cap off the season is extremely important to the program.
That said, the quarterback situation certainly gives me pause.
During the season, the Broncos rotated Maddux Madsen and Taylen Green at quarterback. Well, neither will be under center in the LA Bowl, as Green transferred to Arkansas and Madsen is out for the year with an injury.
Consequently, they'll turn to true freshman QB CJ Tiller with the potential of also going to walk-on Colt Fulton at some point, especially if Tiller looks awful. Regardless, it's not an ideal situation.
As a result, I expect Boise State to go with an extremely heavy rushing attack, leaning on one of the better running back duos in the country in Ashton Jeanty and George Holani, while shielding their inexperienced signal-caller from making mistakes — as long as the Broncos are in the game.
However, I'm not sure that recipe will lead to much success against a very stout UCLA run defense that ranks No. 1 in FBS in EPA per Rush Allowed.
It's going to be tough sledding for Boise even without having to face UCLA star defensive lineman Laiatu Latu, who declared for the NFL Draft after winning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.
The Bruins also had a couple of very key defensive backs hit the portal. However, Boise's third-string (or fourth-string) quarterback and a very underwhelming group of wide receivers aren't the group that can take advantage.
On the other side of the ball, Boise experienced a steep decline in defensive efficiency from a season ago after losing a plethora of standouts that either are currently on NFL rosters or at least got a shot.
The secondary is especially vulnerable, but it at least won't be going up against an explosive UCLA aerial attack. Chip Kelly just couldn't crack the code with this offense in 2023 with a constant rotation at quarterback, underwhelming offensive line play and a lack of playmakers on the outside.
As a result, despite its faster pace, UCLA has been an under machine all season with the highest average under margin in the country at 11 points.
I think that'll continue on Saturday, but I may opt for the 1H under instead in case things get a little crazy in the second half and the inexperienced Boise State quarterback is forced to throw from behind.
Ultimately, I just envision Boise playing very slow and leaning on its backfield, which will lead to plenty of punts, where stud Aussie punter James Ferguson-Reynolds will come into play to help with field position.
Bet to Watch: 1H Under 24
Notable Nugget
Mountain West teams have gone 11-4 SU and ATS in the Las Vegas Bowl.
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Texas Tech vs. California
9:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
From a motivational standpoint between these two 6-6 clubs, I'd give the edge to California, which did not have expectations as high as Texas Tech coming into the season.
With the Golden Bears upsetting UCLA in the regular-season finale to reach bowl eligibility, I'd assume they'd be excited for this game. Conversely, Texas Tech had much bigger goals with many picking the Red Raiders as a legitimate sleeper to win the Big 12.
While Texas Tech boasts superior talent, it also has more impactful opt-outs and injuries.
It's tough for me to project how this one plays out. Neither defense gives up many explosive plays, but they're also not particularly stout against the run.
With each offense able to lean on very good backs in Jaydn Ott for Cal and Tajh Brooks for Texas Tech, that could lead to many sustained, methodical drives even though both teams play with pace.
My numbers say Texas Tech is the play under a field goal, but the other factors I consider during bowl season fancy Cal.
As a result, I'm going to look for a spot to back the Red Raiders live if they get behind early.
It's worth noting that head coach Joey McGuire goes for it on fourth down as much as any coach in the country. I'd expect that frequency to only increase in a bowl game like last year when Tech converted five of its six fourth-down attempts against Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl.
That certainly adds variance to the outcome, but I'm hoping for a key failed conversion or two early in the game to hop in on Texas Tech live — especially considering Cal's offensive staff is a major unknown right now, which may make in-game and halftime adjustments tougher on that side of the ball.
Bet to Watch: Texas Tech Live
Notable Nugget
This bowl matchup pits two teams from the least profitable bowl conferences since 2005, with the Pac-12 going 54-66 ATS and the Big 12 61-72 ATS. So, what has happened when they play each other?
The Big 12 has held a clear advantage, going 20-14 ATS, covering by nearly five points per game. Against all other leagues, the Big 12 has gone just 41-58 (41.4%).
