Week 7 is one of the biggest weekends of the college football season, headlined by a top-five clash between Ohio State and Oregon.
Welcome to our Week 7 Pace Report, where we'll focus on the big game between Ohio State and Oregon, along with UNLV vs. Utah State and Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 6.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 7 off with three totals to target.
UNLV vs Utah State Prediction
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19 -110 | 64.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
Defense is going to be optional in this game.
Ever since Matthew Sluka left UNLV, Hajj-Malik Williams has put up better numbers and shown why he probably should have been the starting quarterback to begin the season.
In his two games, Williams is averaging well over 10 yards per attempt, but he's at his best when he uses his legs. He's averaging 8.0 yards per carry, has already forced 12 missed tackles, and 11 of his 65 rushing attempts have gone over 10 yards.
I'm not sure how Utah State is going to stop him or UNLV's trio of running backs, who are all averaging over five yards per carry.
The Aggies rank 128th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 125th in Defensive Line Yards, so the Rebels should be able to run the ball at will.
Boise State's Ashton Jeanty put up 186 yards rushing and three touchdowns against Utah State last weekend and could have gone for over 300 yards if the Broncos didn't rest him in the second half.
One thing is true about Utah State: if it falls behind, it's going to go down swinging. The Aggies are playing at the eighth-fastest tempo in the country, averaging 22.2 seconds per play. Even though their defense gave up over 60 points to Boise State last weekend, the offense put up 30 points and gained 507 yards.
Former Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras started the last game against Boise State and has been the more efficient quarterback this season, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.
UNLV's defensive numbers have actually been pretty impressive thus far, but it can't stop anybody once they cross the 40-yard line. The Rebels rank 103rd in Finishing Drives Allowed, which ended up costing them in their loss to Syracuse last week.
Utah State will try to pick up the pace of this game, but its defense won't be able to stop anything UNLV throws at it. In fact, the Aggies have now given up over 35 points in all four of their games against FBS opponents.
I have 68.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 64.5 points.
Pick: Over 64.5 (bet365)
Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 53 -112o / -108u | -155 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 53 -112o / -108u | +130 |
Ohio State finally got tested against an elite defensive front when it played Iowa on Saturday, and it answered the bell. The Buckeyes averaged 5.1 yards per carry and put up a positive EPA for the game.
They boast the most talented backfield in college football, and the advantage they have over Oregon in this game is on the ground, which means that the clock will continue to move all game.
Additionally, Chip Kelly's offense isn't playing at a lightning pace right now. The Buckeyes are averaging 27.6 seconds per play to rank 86th in the country in pace.
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard made a couple of big throws against Iowa in the second half, but he wasn't very efficient throwing the ball down the field as a whole.
That's been the story of his season. Even though he has two of the most talented receivers in college football, he still owns a PFF passing grade of just 75.2 with five big-time throws compared to five turnover-worthy plays.
Well, Oregon's secondary is just as good as Iowa's, if not better. The Ducks have the third-best coverage grade by PFF and rank 10th in EPA/Pass Allowed.
On the other side, the Buckeyes will be the best defense Dillon Gabriel has faced thus far, and I'm not sure if he's ready for the challenge. He played pretty poorly in the Ducks' last game against Michigan State, throwing two interceptions in the red zone.
Truth be told, he just hasn't been consistent enough this season.
Gabriel is someone who will destroy opposing secondaries if he has a clean pocket, but his PFF passing grade drops from 89.7 to 61.1 when he's under pressure.
Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country. The Buckeyes lead the country in sack percentage and rank second in PFF pass-rushing grade, which is bad news for Gabriel.
The thing that makes this Ohio State defense so good is that it limits opponents when they cross the 40-yard line. The Buckeyes rank No. 1 nationally in Finishing Drives Allowed, and that was on full display against Iowa last weekend. The Hawkeyes crossed OSU's 40-yard line seven times and came away with just seven points.
Both of these offenses are below average in terms of pace and have elite defenses to boot. I think the total is a little too high here, so I like the value on under 53 points.
Pick: Under 53 (DraftKings)
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -108 | 46 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -112 | 46 -110o / -110u | -535 |
Even though it seems like this game screams "under," I think the total is too low.
Despite focusing on the ground game, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has been incredible as a passer this season.
He posted his best game of the season against Alabama last Saturday and now owns a 91.5 PFF passing grade with eight touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.
The threat of Pavia as a runner has really opened up the passing game because he has carried it at least 10 times in every game this season.
Well, Vanderbilt hasn't really run the ball very effectively this season, and the way to beat Kentucky's defense is through the air. The Wildcats rank 68th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 63rd in terms of PFF coverage grade.
Kentucky is playing at a really slow pace right now, but it has run the ball very efficiently. The Wildcats sit 21st in Rushing Success Rate with their main back, Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, posting a PFF rushing grade of 79.3.
Vanderbilt comes in outside the top 100 in explosive rushing plays allowed, so Kentucky may break off a few big plays on the ground.
The biggest advantage Kentucky will have in this game is Brock Vandagriff throwing the ball deep. The Wildcats rank fifth in explosive passing, and Vandagriff grades out very highly on throws over 10 yards in the air.
Vanderbilt ranks 101st in explosive passing allowed, so even if the Commodores can stop the run, the Cats can still throw the ball deep with success.
I have 51.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 45.5 points.
Pick: Over 45.5 (DraftKings)
