It's a big Week 9 in college football with the biggest game once agains taking place in prime time, as LSU battles Texas A&M in a top-15 showdown.
For the rest of the college football landscape, it's an interesting week from a betting perspective, especially in the totals market.
Welcome to our Week 8 Pace Report, where we'll focus on Nebraska vs. Ohio State, Oregon State vs. Cal and Penn State vs. Wisconsin.
Here are the pace numbers for each team through Week 8.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick Week 9 off with three totals to target.
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Prediction
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -4500 |
After the performance against Indiana on Saturday, how does Nebraska improve offensively?
Not only did Nebraska turn the ball over five times, but it averaged a only little over four yards per play.
Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has been flat-out terrible in the Huskers' previous two games. Against Rutgers and Indiana, he's barely averaged over five yards per attempt and has thrown four interceptions.
His biggest problem in those two games was his ability to throw the ball under pressure. Raiola has been under pressure on almost 33% of his dropbacks this season with his yards per attempt dropping from 7.8 to 6.4 and his completion percentage dropping from 72.8% to 46% in a crowded pocket.
Indiana was in his face all afternoon, and things aren't going to get any easier against an Ohio State team that sits top-20 in Havoc and has the third-best PFF Pass Rushing grade in the country.
Additionally, this will be Raiola's third-ever true road start, and given how his previous two have gone this season, I think this will be a pretty ugly afternoon for Raiola.
Nebraska's rushing attack hasn't really helped Raiola this season, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry as a team while ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Explosiveness.
Despite what it showed last week against Indiana, Nebraska's defense is pretty decent. The Cornhuskers rank inside the top 45 in both EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass allowed this season and are 27th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
The pace of this one should be really slow, as Chip Kelly isn't playing his usual blazing-fast offense. Instead, the Buckeyes rank 102nd in seconds per play.
I only have 42.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 48.5 points.
Pick: Under 48.5 (BetRivers)
Oregon State vs. California Prediction
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 49 -110o / -110u | +285 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 49 -110o / -110u | -360 |
Oregon State's offense can move the ball on the ground, which will be a good matchup against Cal on Saturday.
For years, OSU's offensive identity has been its ground game, and that hasn't changed with Jonathan Smith moving on to Michigan State.
The Beavers are running the ball on 57.3% of their offensive plays, and they're doing it very effectively behind Anthony Hankerson and Jam Griffin.
Hankerson has a whopping 13 touchdowns on the season already as the team's bruiser, while Jam Griffin is the big-play guy, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Griffin missed their previous game against UNLV and is questionable to play in this game.
Either way, Oregon State ranks top-15 in both Rushing Success Rate and EPA/Rush.
Cal's defensive front has been getting beat repeatedly this season, ranking 79th in Defensive Line Yards and 90th in Stuff Rate. It also can't get teams off the field in third-and-short situations, ranking 130th in Power Success Rate allowed.
The Cal rushing attack has been hit or miss this season. Jaydn Ott was its star back coming into the season, but he's been battling injuries and hasn't been very effective for that reason.
Jaivian Thomas now leads the Bears in carries and has by far been the more productive runner, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. He will be a big key in this game because Oregon State hasn't been able to stop anyone on the ground.
Two weeks ago, Nevada ran for 353 yards and 8.6 yards per carry, and Oregon State followed up the next game by giving up almost five yards per carry to UNLV. For the season, the Beavers are 125th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, so expect Cal to have a big day on the ground.
Not only can't Oregon State stop anybody from running the ball, but it's allowing 4.8 points per scoring opportunity, which puts it at 128th in Finishing Drives allowed.
I have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 49 points.
Pick: Over 49 (DraftKings)
Penn State vs. Wisconsin Prediction
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +195 |
This total is a little too high for me.
Penn State isn't playing at a very fast pace, and ots offense isn't very that explosive. Even though Andy Kotelnicki has breathed new life into the Penn State offense, it still ranks outside the top 100 in explosiveness. The reason for that is it hasn't broken off many big plays on the ground.
Penn State ranks 117th in explosive rushing with its top two backs, Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, combining for only 25 rushes of 10 yards or more, which is kind of concerning when they've combined for over 150 carries this season.
That means Penn State is likely going to control this game on the ground and keep the clock moving. It won't be playing at a fast pace either, ranking 109th in seconds per play.
Meanwhile, quarterback Drew Allar has been incredibly efficient this season, propelling the Nittany Lions inside the top five in both Passing Success Rate and EPA/Pass.
However, this will be one of the better secondaries he's seen this season. Wisconsin ranks 29th in EPA/Pass allowed and is allowing just 5.9 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season.
On the other side, I really don't know how Wisconsin moves the ball effectively in this game. Penn State has one of the best defensive lines in the country that has been stopping every team from running the ball effectively. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry while ranking first nationally in Stuff Rate and third in Defensive Line Yards.
The Badgers' rushing attack has been pretty good when they give the ball to Tawee Walker, but the one time they faced an elite front seven, Alabama held him to 24 yards on only 11 carries.
Additionally, Wisconsin ranks 97th in explosive rushing plays, so it's really going to have to try and beat Penn State three-to-four yards at a time.
To beat the Nittany Lions, a team needs an elite downfield passer, and Wisconsin doesn't have that with Tyler Van Dyke sidelined for the season.
Backup Braedyn Locke owns a PFF Passing grade of just 65.3 with eight turnover-worthy plays compared to only five big-time throws. He was completely ineffective when the pressure was on him to beat Alabama, and I think we may see a similar performance on Saturday night.
I only have 43.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 48 points.
Pick: Under 48 (bet365)
