After riding the Ole Miss train for two consecutive weeks, we cashed our bet on the Rebels in Week 10 against Arkansas.
The Hogs allowed over 60 points, but the real beef in the box score came from the defense. Ole Miss retained its top overall Defensive Havoc mark thanks to 13 tackles for loss that contributed to an average third-down distance of 9.8 yards.
Our Havoc column has moved to 5-3 for the season. Now, the Rebels still lead on defense, while Army retains the top position offensively in Havoc Allowed.
Havoc is defined by several plays that can change the momentum for both teams, including tackles for loss, pass breakups and forced fumbles on defense. Havoc Allowed, meanwhile, encompasses the ability of a team to prevent tackles for loss, throw interceptions or fumble the ball.
Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 11, including each individual head-to-head game.
Duke vs. NC State
Duke: 3rd in Havoc · NC State: 130th in Havoc Allowed
Do not let the 53-31 final score of Miami’s victory mislead you into how Duke played on the road. The Blue Devils led in this game until late in the third quarter, generating nearly six overall yards per play on defense.
The Duke defense limited Miami in short-yardage situations, stuffing 38% of its opponent's 29 rushing attempts. The Blue Devils also harassed Cam Ward into an interception while recording six tackles for loss.
Defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke’s 3-3-5 has generated the third-best Defensive Havoc rank in FBS.
The Blue Devils will take a short trip to NC State, looking to take advantage of an offense that has struggled to protect three different quarterbacks.
The Wolfpack enter the week 130th in Havoc Allowed, a number heavily influenced by the presence of defenders in the backfield. NC State ranks 129th in tackles for loss allowed, also allowing 21 pressures in the last two games against Stanford and Cal.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings suggest Duke should be an underdog by three points, but the Havoc advantage all resides with the Blue Devils.
Outside of tackles for loss, NC State is at a supreme disadvantage in the passing game. Duke ranks fifth nationally in creating contested catches, so Havoc should ultimately be the difference in this rivalry.
Pick: Duke +3 or Better
