Texas failed to cover the spread in Week 12 thanks to a 14-play drive that lasted nearly seven minutes to end the game. Head coach Steve Sarkisian got into scoring position before the two-minute timeout, ultimately electing to take three consecutive kneel-downs for the 10-point victory.
Havoc was the driver for a play on the Longhorns, and the defense did not disappoint. Arkansas gave up nine tackles for loss while averaging 8.5 yards on 12 third-down attempts.
The Longhorns forced two turnovers and kept the Razorbacks' big-play offense from creating an explosive drive, but Sarkisian's decision to kneel cost those with Texas tickets.
Texas remains in the top 10 defensively in regard to havoc, causing chaos on 20% of defensive snaps.
Ole Miss remains the top defense in the nation in terms of tackles for loss, pass breakups and takeaways, while Army continues to rank as the most disciplined offense in the nation, taking home the top overall ranking in Havoc Allowed and offensive momentum killer rate.
Havoc is defined by several plays that can change the momentum for both teams, including tackles for loss, pass breakups and forced fumbles on defense. Havoc Allowed encompasses a team's ability to prevent tackles for loss, throw interceptions or fumble the ball. Those variables are combined and weighted with the total number of snaps to create our Havoc Rankings.
Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 13, including each individual head-to-head game.
Stanford vs. Cal
Stanford: 133rd in Havoc Allowed · Cal: 32nd in Havoc
The results from Week 12 are a bit misleading for both Cal and Stanford, who are scheduled to meet in Berkeley in Week 13.
Stanford beat Louisville with a 9% post-game win expectancy, losing the net yards per play battle.
Although the Cardinals dominated the box score, Stanford was granted generous field position for two field goals while connecting on a one-play drive that resulted in a 62-yard touchdown pass.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels was under constant duress, seeing seven quarterback hurries on top of eight tackles for loss by Louisville. Stanford now stares down its next opponent — a California defense that ranks top-35 in Defensive Havoc.
The Bears lost in blowout fashion to Syracuse despite a 50% post-game win expectancy. Cal won the net yards per play by +1.2, tripling the national average for methodical drives.
The Bears averaged a monster 9.7 yards per play on 19 rushing attempts but were forced to abandon the run with a 20-point deficit at halftime. The Bears did win the second half, 18-6, but it was not enough to overcome crucial mistakes made in the second quarter.
Cal will look for an important sixth win over Stanford, guaranteeing a bowl bid with a victory.
The Bears have the advantage in Havoc, ranking 32nd nationally thanks to a defense that's 19th nationally in creating contested catches.
Stanford is next to last in Havoc Allowed, allowing too many opponents to cash in with tackles for loss and sacks.
There are plenty of advantages for Cal outside of Havoc, including a rank of seventh in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Bears also don't allow methodical drives with a top-five rank in Defensive Quality Drives.
The advantages also extend to the offensive side of the ball.
Cal's skill-position players have been excellent in space, ranking 17th in missed tackles created. Stanford's defense has been dreadful with tackling fundamentals, ranking 129th in broken tackles allowed.
Pick: Cal -14 or Better
