College Football Pick & Havoc Rankings for Week 10: Why Ole Miss vs. Arkansas is Havoc Bet of the Week

College Football Pick & Havoc Rankings for Week 10: Why Ole Miss vs. Arkansas is Havoc Bet of the Week article feature image
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Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss’ Chris Paul Jr.

The Havoc was present in Week 9 for our Havoc Game of the Week, but Ole Miss failed to cover a near three-touchdown spread.

The Rebels loss moved the column to 4-3 on the season, but the chaos from the defense was not the reason for the loss.

Ole Miss tormented Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold, producing 10 sacks for 61 yards. The Sooners' rushing attack a;so couldn't keep the Rebels out of the backfield, submitting 15 tackles for loss.

Despite the defensive effort, Oklahoma converted nearly half of its third-down attempts from an average distance of 7.5 yards.

While Havoc didn't fail us, the Ole Miss defense did come up short in creating a methodical drive.

Despite averaging nearly 2.5 yards per play more than Oklahoma, the Rebels picked up the victory in a non-covering effort and now move on to Fayetteville for another SEC matchup with Arkansas.

Havoc is defined by several plays that can change the momentum for both teams, including tackles for loss, pass breakups and forced fumbles on the defensive side of the ball. Offensively, Havoc Allowed encompasses a team's ability to prevent tackles for loss, throw interceptions or fumble the ball.

While Ole Miss remains the top Defensive Havoc team in the country, Army is now the most disciplined offense with the top rank in Havoc Allowed.

Here's a look at our updated Havoc Rankings for Week 10, including each individual head-to-head game.


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Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

Ole Miss: 1st in Havoc · Arkansas: 91st in Havoc Allowed

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin continues to field the most ferocious defense in the nation, leading the country in tackles for loss by 10 over Duke.

Dealing with Ole Miss' defensive line is enough for most offensive lines, but quarterbacks must also throw against a secondary that leads the nation in passes broken up.

Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green should be on the move with few open pockets for passing against Ole Miss. The Razorbacks have allowed 114 defensive pressures on 293 dropbacks.

Furthermore, Arkansas has trouble getting clean passes to targets with a rank of 139th in catchable ball rate. For what it's worth, Green also posted another three turnover-worthy plays against Mississippi State.

Ole Miss is expected to cruise through the air against Arkansas, as the Razorbacks' secondary has fallen to 123rd in PFF Coverage grading.

Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart didn't face much trouble in Week 9, as Oklahoma's pressure rate was half that of LSU’s the week prior.

Outside of the trip to Baton Rouge, Dart has committed just four turnover-worthy plays on the season. While Ole Miss ranks top-25 in on-target rate, the Arkansas secondary is one of the worst in the country in creating a contested catch.

Pick: Ole Miss -7 or Better

About the Author
Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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