Bowl season is finally here, and even though there are a ton of opt-outs and players who have already hit the transfer portal, there's nothing like the month of December in college football.
This time of year has drastically changed with the landscape of the sport evolving each year. It can be hard to keep up with who is and isn't playing for their team in the bowl game, but luckily, we have a bowl season opt-out tracker so you don't miss a thing.
This article is going to identify a few totals that I like during this bowl season, taking an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and opt-outs — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before the bowl game kicks off.
Let's kick things off with three over/unders to bet during bowl season.
LA Bowl: UCLA vs. Boise State
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +164 |
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Both starting quarterbacks for the LA Bowl are in the transfer portal.
Taylen Green has already committed to Arkansas, which completely hampers the Boise State offense.
Not only did his ability as a passer lead the Broncos to a ranking of 36th in EPA/Pass, but his ability as a runner is what made this offense click. Green carried the ball 68 times this season for an average of 5.3 yards per carry with nine touchdowns.
To make matters worse for Boise State, backup quarterback Maddux Madsen is also out for the season, which means it’s going to be either true freshman CJ Tiller or walk-on Colt Fulton at quarterback. Neither one has taken a snap yet this season.
That means Boise State is going to have to be incredibly rush-heavy in this game, which is a massive problem because UCLA’s front seven has been one of the best units in the country at stopping the run this season. The Bruins rank second in EPA/Rush Allowed, sixth in Stuff Rate, and 14th in Defensive Line Yards.
On the other side, Dante Moore has hit the transfer portal for UCLA, meaning Ethan Garbers will get the start.
Garbers really struggled in UCLA’s final three games down the stretch. Against Arizona, USC and Cal, he averaged under 5.6 yards per attempt and had a PFF passing grade under 70 in all three games.
That means UCLA and its average rushing attack will be running the ball a lot in this game, which will keep the clock moving.
The problem with UCLA’s offense is it really struggles once it gets into scoring position. The Bruins rank 123rd in Finishing Drives and dead last in red-zone scoring percentage, as they put points on the board on just 59% of trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Not to mention, UCLA is 10-1 to the under this season.
I have 39.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 49 points.
Pick: Under 49
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Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +115 |
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The Texas A&M defense has been completely gutted due to opt-outs and transfers.
A total of seven of the 11 starters from Texas A&M's defense will not be playing in the bowl game, which is terrible news when you're about to face one of the best rushing attacks in the nation.
There's no news right now as to whether or not Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon II is going to play in this game for Oklahoma State, but if he does, the Cowboys are going to run wild.
Texas A&M had one of the best front sevens in the country against the run this season, but with four of its seven starters not available, it's going to be incredibly difficult to bring down Gordon.
The biggest weakness the Texas A&M defense had this season was giving up big plays on the ground. The Aggies ranked 57th in rushing explosiveness allowed, which is tough considering Gordon had 42 runs of 10-plus yards.
Oklahoma State's Alan Bowman didn't opt out of the bowl game, and nearly all of his weapons will be available.
Bowman was a very average quarterback this season by all metrics, but he should find success against a Texas A&M defense that lost both of its starting cornerbacks and a starting safety.
Max Johnson hit the transfer portal and committed to North Carolina, which means Jaylen Henderson will get the start.
He started the final three games of the season and was actually pretty effective as a passer, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt with a 46% positive EPA/Play percentage. He'll now be going up against an Oklahoma State secondary that ranked 107th in EPA/Pass and 98th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
At the time of writing, all of the Aggies' running backs are going to play in the bowl game, which is fantastic news because they have a great matchup against an Oklahoma State front seven that sits outside the top 70 in both EPA/Rush Allowed and rushing explosiveness allowed.
I have 60.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 53 points.
Pick: Over 53
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Fenway Bowl: SMU vs. Boston College
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -400 |
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +310 |
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Even though SMU has a backup quarterback, the Mustangs could put up 40-plus points in this game.
SMU finished the season as the AAC champion and ranked 16th in EPA/Play. Much of that was because of quarterback Preston Stone, who's out for the season.
However, backup Kevin Jennings actually impressed in the AAC Championship against a good Tulane defense, putting up a PFF passing grade of 77.6 to go along with a positive EPA play percentage of 45%.
SMU also has a solid rushing attack that finished 29th in Rushing Success Rate with an offensive line that ranked top-50 in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
It doesn't matter if the Mustangs want to throw the ball or run it — they will be able to move the ball at will on this Boston College defense.
The Eagles allowed 6.4 yards per play this season while ranking 116th in EPA/Play Allowed and 118th in Finishing Drives Allowed. They could not stop the run or the pass, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, Passing Success Rate Allowed, rushing explosiveness allowed and passing explosiveness allowed.
To make matters worse, they're going to be down three starters in the secondary due to injuries and opt-outs, so SMU could really light up the scoreboard here.
Boston College does have a really good rushing attack, which is good in this game because teams simply can't throw on SMU's secondary.
BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos is an incredible runner at the quarterback position and has given opposing defenses fits, just like he did against Miami in the finale when he ran for 130 yards.
For the season, Castellanos is averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns and 40 runs over 10 yards.
If there's one weakness in this SMU defense, it's definitely giving up big plays on the ground. The Mustangs come in at 88th in rushing explosiveness allowed, so don't be surprised to see the Eagles break off a couple of big runs.
Additionally, as good as the SMU defense has been, it's been very average when it comes to keeping teams out of the end zone, ranking 62nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
I have 61.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 51 points.
Pick: Over 51
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