The explanation for the frenzied panic in Boulder can be explained by a single word: Havoc.
Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders was critical of his offensive line and the amount of pressure he faced against Nebraska's defense. The Cornhuskers recorded 10 tackles for loss while creating 10 quarterback hurries on Sanders in a 28-10 win in Week 2.
The Buffaloes converted only four of their 14 third-down attempts and had an average distance of 6.6 yards to go.
Nebraska's defensive Havoc consistently put Colorado behind the chains, easily containing an offense that relied on explosives in passing attempts.
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What is Havoc? The term is a collection of data that shows a team's volatility on both sides of the ball.
Defenses can flip a game on a dime with a number of Havoc-related stat categories, including pass breakups, forced fumbles and tackles for loss.
The same rule applies on the other side of the ball, as an offense’s "Havoc Allowed" number calculates interceptions, fumbles and tackles for loss allowed.
Action Network has calculated these numbers since before the pandemic season, but there will be a change to that formula this year. Statistics that change the possession — such as fumbles lost and interceptions — will have a heavier weight in the rankings.
The purpose of this weekly column is to identify a team’s defensive Havoc and offensive Havoc Allowed numbers while comparing them to their next opponent.
First, a look at the current Havoc Ratings:
Indiana vs. UCLA Pick
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Havoc Allowed: Indiana 27th · UCLA 106th
Defensive Havoc: Indiana 7th · UCLA 3rd
No game will feature as much defensive Havoc as when the Indiana Hoosiers travel west to play in the first-ever Big Ten conference game for the UCLA Bruins.
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti brought a top-10 defensive Havoc rate to Bloomington with a number of transfers from the James Madison defense. That unit has since terrorized the offenses of Florida International and Western Illinois. In its two games this season, Indiana has won by a combined score of 108-10.
Led by a top-25 rank in tackles for loss, the Hoosiers have feasted when they've blitzed. Cignetti’s defense has used blitz on 32% of defensive downs, creating a high rate of negative plays in the process.
While the Indiana defense has lived up to James Madison's hype from 2023, UCLA ranked outside the top 100 in Havoc Allowed.
Now, the Bruins are coming out of a bye week after a shaky Week 1 performance against Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors produced two interceptions and six tackles for loss, stuffing nearly half of the Bruins' rushing attempts.
UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy were expected to implement a heavy rush attack, but a game situation that saw Hawaii take the lead led to plenty of failed passing attempts.
UCLA ranks near dead last in Stuff Rate, Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Finishing Drives.
The good news for the Bruins is a strong defensive Havoc performance in Week 1. UCLA recorded nine passes defensed and double-digit tackles for loss.
However, Indiana can combat those strengths. The Hoosiers have allowed only six tackles for loss through two games.
It's also worth noting that fifth-year Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke has yet to throw a pass that has been batted down, ranking top-25 in on-target rate.
Indiana is shaping into the mold of Cignetti’s product at James Madison — a reliable offense with a heavy flavor of Havoc on the defensive side of the ball.
Pick: Indiana -3
