Our Havoc Rankings supplied a winning pick in Week 4 when looking at the best matchup from a reverse angle.
Rutgers ranked as the top team in the nation in Havoc Allowed offensively, evading Virginia Tech's Havoc-inducing stop unit.
The Hokies couldn't snag an interception in 25 passes from Athan Kaliakmanis and also failed to cash in on the lone Rutgers fumble during the game.
Havoc is defined by critical plays that can result in a change of possession, points or momentum. Defenses look to execute on tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions and forcing fumbles.
Meanwhile, the most disciplined offenses avoid pressure on the quarterback, allow running backs to hit the hole untouched and limit turnovers in the passing game.
The collection of those counting statistics divided by the number of total plays creates our Havoc Rankings.
Before identifying a Week 5 game that will have a flavor of Havoc, here are the updated rankings:
Middle Tennessee vs. Memphis
Middle Tennessee: 123rd in Havoc Allowed · Memphis: 7th in Havoc
No team should be more motivated to rebound from an awful performance than Memphis. After beating Florida State in a critical game for College Football Playoff consideration, the Tigers were blasted by Navy in Week 4.
Navy gained nearly 80% of available yards while producing four explosive drives in 10 offensive possessions. The Midshipmen were rarely stuffed at the line and averaged 11 yards per play on 18 passing downs.
Quarterback Blake Horvath produced more than 400 combined yards in passing and rushing attempts.
Memphis will look to rebound against Middle Tennessee and new head coach Derek Mason.
The Blue Raiders have yet to cover any of the first four games this season, and their only victory came in the season opener against FCS Tennessee Tech.
Middle Tennessee even struggled to pull off the victory, trailing the Golden Eagles with a minute left in the fourth quarter.
The Blue Raiders rank 123rd in Havoc Allowed, turning the ball over with nearly 10 combined interceptions and fumbles lost. Middle Tennessee sits at 125th in tackles for loss allowed, as opponents have lived behind the line of scrimmage with 31 TFLs for a combined 119 yards lost.
Memphis ranks top-10 nationally in tackles for loss thanks to edge William Whitlow and linebacker Bryce Edmondson.
The projection for this game is north of the opening spread of Memphis -24.
The Blue Raiders have been inept at generating points, running near dead last in Offensive Finishing Drives. Furthermore, Memphis is a pass-heavy team that will find key advantages against a Middle Tennessee defense that ranks dead last in FBS in pass rush and defensive pass explosives.
Pick: Memphis -27 or Better
