Week 1 is in the books, and we saw plenty of headlines. Now, Week 2 has some monster games on the slate, starting with Texas traveling to Michigan for a top-10 showdown on Saturday.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff. That includes three games I'm targeting on Week 2's Saturday slate: Texas vs. Michigan, Eastern Michigan vs. Washington and Sam Houston vs. UCF.
With money pouring in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday, the market moves a lot over the course of a week. That means it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
I'm here to help you navigate the market by providing a few lines I'm buying right now — or other lines that I'm waiting to buy later in the week.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV), meaning how many points did you beat the closing line by? Well, I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Texas vs. Michigan Pick
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +200 |
Texas vs. Michigan Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Texas -3.0 | Texas -0.2 | Texas -0.3 |
Texas was pretty much perfect against Colorado State on Saturday, but it's going to face a siginficantly better defense on Saturday afternoon.
There's no doubt that Quinn Ewers is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football, but the reality is that his numbers weren't close to being near the top five last season.
He posted a PFF passing grade of just 85.6 and had only one game with a PFF passing grade above 90. He ranked 11th in EPA and positive play percentage, per Sports Info Solutions, which are great numbers — just nowhere near the Jayden Daniels or Bo Nix level.
Ewers has also shown to be a pretty average passer outside of play-action attempts. As you can see below, he was a very average passer in non-play action attempts, and 16 of his 22 touchdowns last season came off of play-action.
Image via PFF.
Why is that important? Well, Texas lost running back CJ Baxter before the season, which means Jaydon Blue and Jerrick Gibson are going to handle the load. However, they're downgrades from Baxter and will be facing a really good run defense.
The Wolverines held Fresno State to just nine rushing yards in Week 1 of Wink Martindale's aggressive scheme.
Martindale is going to run the same concepts as Michigan ran previously under Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter, which will really help bridge the gap with a lot of new faces in the front seven.
Offensively, Davis Warren has won the starting quarterback job for Michigan, but head coach Sherrone Moore rotated him and Alex Orji throughout the game against Fresno State. Warren had a pretty poor game, averaging only 4.7 yards per attempt while Orji attempted only two passes.
That means the Michigan offense is going to lean heavily on Donavan Edwards and the rushing attack.
Michigan plays really slow. In fact, only Army and Air Force were slower in terms of seconds per play last season. That didn't change on Saturday night against Fresno State. The Wolverines averaged 31.9 seconds per play, which was slower than their season average last year.
Texas lost both of its starting defensive tackles from last season with Outland Trophy winner T'Vondre Sweat and first-team All-Big 12 member Byron Murphy II moving onto the NFL.
So, if Michigan can run the ball effectively with Edwards, it's going to be a live underdog in this game.
This line was sitting at Texas -3.5 points all summer, and now the Longhorns have suddenly shot up three points after one week. All three projection models are showing value on Michigan, so I like the Wolverines in the Big House at +6.5.
Pick: Michigan +6.5 (BetMGM)
Eastern Michigan vs. Washington Pick
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+24.5 -107 | 47.5 -117o / -104u | +1300 |
| Washington Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-24.5 -114 | 47.5 -117o / -104u | -5000 |
Eastern Michigan vs. Washington Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Washington -35.5 | Washington -27.3 | Washington -28.7 |
This really should be a blowout.
Eastern Michigan beat UMass in Amherst on Saturday, 28-14, but now it has to travel all the way across the country to Seattle to take on a good Washington team.
This is Cole Snyder's second stop in the MAC after spending the last two seasons at Buffalo, where he was a really bad quarterback. In 2023, he averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt and put up a 56.3 PFF passing grade with only 12 big-time throws compared to 18 turnover-worthy plays.
Out of the 200 quarterbacks in college football who attempted at least 50 passes last season, Snyder finished 188th in EPA/Pass.
The skill-position players are very weak as well. At running back, Delbert Mimms barely played at NC State and averaged only 3.4 yards per carry when he did, while Dontae McMillan sat third on the depth chart last season.
In addition to that, only one receiver who caught more than 20 balls is back, so even though the Eagles put up 28 points against UMass, this offense is projected to finish near the bottom of the MAC this season.
Jedd Fisch showed just how good of a coach he is at Arizona, turning the program into a double-digit win team in three seasons. It's going to take some time for him to do the same in Washington, but he did pick up some talent in the transfer portal.
Will Rogers comes over from Mississippi State's Air Raid and has already thrown for over 11,000 passing yards in his career. He has a couple of solid weapons to throw as well, including Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter.
But the biggest weapon on the Washington offense is at running back. Fisch brought Jonah Coleman over from Arizona after averaging 6.1 yards per carry a season ago.
He's a bruiser, standing at 5-foot-9 and 229 pounds, and can run defenders over. He averaged 5.09 yards per rush after contact last season, which was the most of any running back in college football with at least 100 attempts.
Another TD for Jonah Coleman 😤@UW_Football is up 21-0💥#B1GFootball on @BigTenNetwork 📺 pic.twitter.com/A9Drvu8cS2
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) September 1, 2024
Eastern Michigan ranked 105th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 119th in Defensive Line Yards a season ago. It also lost a couple of starters on the defensive line and its linebacking core was gutted, so Coleman and the Washington offense should have a big day.
All three projection models show value on the Huskies, so I like the value on them at -24.
Pick: Washington -24 (via BetRivers)
Sam Houston vs. UCF Pick
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+23.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +1200 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-23.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -2400 |
Sam Houston vs. UCF Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| UCF -20.5 | UCF -19.5 | UCF -22.6 |
Sam Houston pulled off a big upset on Saturday, dominating Rice on the road, 34-14, as a double-digit underdog.
Despite a 3-9 season last year, the Bearkats are trending upward because of how much they have coming back on the offensive side of the ball.
They do have a new quarterback in Hunter Watson, who led Iowa Western to the 2023 NJCAA National Championship as one of the best quarterbacks at the junior college level.
He was very good in the opening game against Rice, going 16-of-27 for 229 yards and two touchdowns with no turnover-worthy plays.
It helps that the Bearkats have basically their entire receiving corps back, including Noah Smith, who was a second- team All-CUSA wideout with a 77.6 PFF receiving grade.
The key to the Sam Houston offense, though, is running the ball effectively. It controlled the clock and ran the ball 46 times against Rice, which is what it will have to do here against UCF.
The Bearkats lost only one starter on the offensive line from last year, so controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be big in this game.
However, UCF has two monsters in the middle in Lee Hunter and Ricky Barber, so there's going to be pressure on Watson to throw the ball, which he's very capable of doing.
On the other side, the Knights have an outstanding rushing attack with RJ Harvey back and KJ Jefferson transferring over from Arkansas. As a team, they ran for 454 yards against lowly New Hampshire in Week 1, but these two running head coach Gus Malzahn's read option is going to be a nightmare for opposing defenses.
But Sam Houston showed it's very stout up front, holding Rice to just 47 total rushing yards on Saturday.
The Bearkats brought in a lot of transfers to beef up a defensive line that was around the FBS average in a lot of defensive rushing metrics, so there's a chance they could slow down UCF.
After what Sam Houston did to Rice on Saturday, it will more than likely get some love in the market. All three projection models show a little bit of value on the Bearkats, so I would grab them at a key number of +24.
Pick: Sam Houston State +24 (via bet365)
