Welcome to the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff.
This week brings us four games on college campuses, including No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State, No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas and No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State.
The action starts with the Hoosier State showdown on Friday night, serving as an appetizer of sorts for the three Saturday games.
I broke down all four of this week's College Football Playoff games and came through with a pick (or more) for each.
So, whether you're looking for sides, totals, player props or other markets, my Action Network betting card will have you covered for the biggest games of the season.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the first round of the College Football Playoff.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's first round of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Indiana vs. Notre Dame Pick
The Indiana Hoosiers (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1) open the new 12-team College Football Playoff with an opening-round matchup in South Bend on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
History will be made for Indiana, as it finds itself in the midst of the greatest season in program history, trumping a 1967 appearance in the Rose Bowl.
Head coach Curt Cignetti made waves at Big Ten Media Days, announcing the arrival of Hoosiers football. Indiana finished with only a single loss on the season, suffering a 38-15 defeat at the hands of Ohio State in Week 14. Cignetti has been a moneymaker for investors since his arrival at the FBS level, covering 24 of his 35 games since the 2022 season.
Notre Dame will make its 3rd appearance in the College Football Playoff after losing both semifinal attempts in 2018 and 2020. The Irish have 11 national titles dating back to 1924 but must win 3 straight to compete for another championship.
The winner of this game will move on to New Orleans, drawing 2nd-seeded SEC champion Georgia.
Notre Dame enters as a -7 favorite with the over/under set at 51.
Let's dive into my Indiana vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks for the CFP opener on Friday, Dec. 20.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana's offense centers around a three-headed ground attack led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The Ohio transfer didn't accumulate as many yards and touchdowns as he did in the MAC, but he leads a rushing offense that uses a heavy amount of inside zone.
Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton have created plenty of highlight yards this season, racking up a combined 19 explosive runs.
Lawton has been the workhorse the second half of the season, averaging 4.2 yards after first contact on combined attempts against the defenses of Michigan and Ohio State.
Ty Son Lawton : 15 carries for 79 yards & 2 TD's pic.twitter.com/OzISoohmaw
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) November 23, 2024
Cignetti's stingy defenses from James Madison have followed him to Bloomington, ranking as the best in the nation in opponent rush efficiency and Line Yards.
The 3-3-5 personnel can be aggressive with a 39% blitz rate, producing the sixth-best number in Defensive Havoc.
Nearly every analytic against the pass also resides in the top 10, including coverage grading and passing downs efficiency. Although Ohio State put up 38 points against Indiana, the Buckeyes managed just a single explosive drive.
Indiana finished as one of the top special teams units in the country but gave up 193 hidden yards and gave Ohio State an average starting field position at the 45-yard line.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame has executed at a high level on offense all season, particularly in generating extra yards at the second level. Duke transfer quarterback Riley Leonard leads the inside zone run concept that ranks third nationally in Rush EPA.
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has two dynamic running backs in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, as the pair have combined with Leonard for 36 total rushing touchdowns.
Love has caught fire at the end of the regular season, scoring two touchdowns in three of his final five games. Not only has the sophomore running back created 55 missed tackles, but he has also caught 22 passes out of the backfield.
WHOA!
Jeremiyah Love with a POWERFUL run. pic.twitter.com/tBUcQd6ibC— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 30, 2024
Defensively, the Irish's three-man front has had struggles defending the run, ranking 83rd in opponent rush efficiency. That number drops in money downs with short distances, ranking 115th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
While the defense has been gashed on the ground, the secondary has made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Notre Dame boasts the third-best coverage unit, per PFF, generating the best defensive efficiency against the pass in FBS.
Led by cornerbacks Christian Gray and Leonard Moore, the Irish rank eighth in pass breakups plus interceptions.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame Prediction
The key for Indiana to compete in Notre Dame Stadium is to simply remain in standard downs. The Irish defense feasts on opponents in passing downs, ranking top-10 in both efficiency and limiting explosives.
Freeman has created a stop unit that's strong in tackling fundamentals, ranking second in hard stops. However, the Hoosiers will have success with inside zone between the tackles with Lawton and Ellison. Notre Dame has a low 41% Success Rate against opponents running inside zone.
Interior defenders Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills have both been pushed around by opposing offenses this season.
Indiana will look to cash in when entering the extended red zone, ranking as the nation's best team in Finishing Drives with an average of 5.1 points per trip inside the 40-yard line.
Notre Dame will have the chance to answer on offense with the element of the explosive play. The Hoosiers have had a high Success Rate in defending inside the zone, but there's been a dropoff against stiffer competition.
Ohio State's rushing attack was stuffed on just 6-of-28 attempts, while Maryland averaged 6.5 yards per play on the ground against the Hoosiers.
Love and Price should keep the chains moving, as half of Washington's offensive possessions featured two or more first downs. Indiana also finished the regular season 61st in defensive rush explosives allowed.
Both offenses have advantages with the inside zone read concept, signaling that each team should remain in standard downs and create plenty of scoring opportunities.
There aren't many teams that have cashed in in the red zone like Indiana and Notre Dame, both ranking top-10 in red-zone touchdown rate.
Notre Dame may have more reason to avoid the kicking game with a high efficiency of rushing touchdowns. Kicker Mitch Jeter has made only half of his field goals this season, missing all three attempts in the final games against Army and USC.
Look for Freeman to get aggressive in touchdown hunting, calling for a ticket of Notre Dame over 3.5 touchdowns.
Action Network's projection on the total sits at 58, well above the market number as well as the biggest key number in totals of 55.
The over is the play, but there may be reason to be patient with market development. A 30% chance of snow is in the forecast, a factor that can drive the total well into the 40s. With winds projected at a modest six mph, the movement in the totals market won't be justified with two rush-heavy offenses.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Notre Dame to be favored by 8 points, assisted by more than three points of home-field advantage. The Irish should be considered at a touchdown or less, with the Hoosiers having value at any number at 8 or higher.
There may be a reason to look at a prop on the red-hot Love, who has become the primary option for Leonard on any down and distance.
Love to score 2+ touchdowns can be found in the market at +225 — a ticket that could cash through explosives or methodical drives for the Irish.
Pick: Over 51 or Better · Notre Dame Over 3.5 TDs · Jeremiyah Love 2+ TDs (+225)
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SMU vs. Penn State Pick
The SMU Mustangs (11-2, 8-0 ACC) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2, 8-1 Big Ten) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 21. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
The College Football Playoff rolls into Beaver Stadium, as Penn State or SMU will advance to the Fiesta Bowl in the quarterfinals.
In the Mustangs' first season in the ACC, head coach Rhett Lashlee led SMU to an ACC Championship appearance and a road game in the playoff after winning 11 games in the regular season and going 8-0 in conference play.
On the other side, Penn State had finished in the top 12 of the final College Football Playoff rankings in 6 of the past 8 seasons but never received a semifinal birth. While head coach James Franklin was not successful in beating Oregon for a Big Ten title, the Nittany Lions will host their first-ever playoff game.
The point spread has remained in a dead number range since open, with Penn State entering as a -8.5 favorite. The over/under has seen minimal climb from an open of 52.5 to 54, as the weather forecast continues to move toward snowy conditions.
Let's dive into my SMU vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for their College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
SMU Mustangs
Running back Brashard Smith has been everything to the SMU offense, as Lashlee's rush-heavy scheme uses inside zone on 70% of attempts. The difference in Line Yards versus highlight yards illustrates that Smith has done the heavy lifting.
The offensive line enters the playoff game ranked 90th in Line Yards with a team Rushing Success Rate of 72nd. Smith has created 47 missed tackles this season while averaging 3.4 yards after first contact.
A Stuff Rate rank of 77th has continued to hamper SMU in short-yardage situations, as the Mustangs rely on the Miami transfer running back to generate explosives.
#SMU RB Brashard Smith has been awesome this season
Proud to have him lead my Mustangs to the Playoff@BrashardSpic.twitter.com/dZx5ClVaNA
— Hail Mary Sports (@hailmarysportss) December 14, 2024
With one of the worse strength of schedules of any team in the playoff, the SMU defense has thrived as a top-25 unit in nearly every category.
Coordinator Scott Symons' nickel defense will throw plenty of different looks at an offense, running a heavy amount of 2-4-5 with a mix of 3-3-5 and a 1-5-5 on 16% of snaps.
SMU has been fantastic against all run concepts from their opponents, averaging a high 57% Success Rate up to 62% against power, man, counter and zone read.
Outside linebacker Elijah Roberts has been the biggest contributor to a top-15 Havoc defense, creating 55 pressures and 43 quarterback hurries this season.
Penn State Nittany Lions
There was no issue in offensive continuity against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship game. Penn State averaged seven yards per play with a whopping 64% Success Rate on 34 rushing attempts while generating two or more first downs on 7-of-12 possessions.
The Penn State rushing attack was sluggish midseason but has found a second wind in the late part of the season.
Nicholas Singleton has bumped his yards-after-first-contact average in nearly every game over the second half of the season, averaging 5.7 yards after contact against the Ducks on 11 rushing attempts.
Nick Singleton is DANGEROUS#WeAre | #RatedProspect
— The Draft Network (@TheDraftNetwork) December 8, 2024
Penn State continues to field an elite defense despite the change in coordinators.
Former Indiana head coach Tom Allen's nickel defense sends blitz on 37% of snaps, creating a high 59% Success Rate in terms of generating pressure on the quarterback.
The secondary has been fantastic in creating tight windows for opposing quarterbacks, ranking 17th in creating contested catches. The numbers don't fall off against the rush, ranking fourth in Line Yards and third in Defensive Stuff Rate.
While the overall tackle grading fell to 50th this season, the Nittany Lions have been excellent in space with a rank of 36th in broken tackles allowed.
Linebacker Kobe King has been crucial in keeping running backs from reaching the second level, leading Penn State in stops with the ninth-best individual run defense grade of all linebackers, per PFF.
SMU vs. Penn State Prediction
There's no expectation that SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings will improve on a Passing Success Rate number that sits outside the top 40 against the Penn State defense.
This puts a critical handicap on the production of Smith against the Nittany Lions' run defense.
Penn State has a respectable 55% Success Rate against the inside zone read concept SMU will utilize, but it's the limitation of explosives that will be key. Penn State has allowed just one of every 20 rushing attempts using inside zone to create an explosive run.
The biggest advantage in this game could come in the offensive game plan of Penn State coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. SMU has been prone to teams using tight ends to create first downs, signaling Tyler Warren could have a day from a props perspective.
When playing SMU, Clemson, Virginia and Boston College all targeted their tight ends at a higher rate than normal, including Clemson with eight targets and Virginia with five. The biggest proponent of tight end usage was Boston College, going to tight ends on 16 targets with 12 catches against the SMU defense.
With 112 targets on the season, expect Warren to be a candidate for every third down and red-zone conversion.
The Mustangs do produce a heavy pass rush, ranking 15th in creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
If there's one area of struggle for the Nittany Lions, it's the protection of quarterback Drew Allar. Penn State ranks 84th in pass blocking, as Allar has seen 114 pressures in 374 dropbacks this season.
There may be no better marker on whether or not a quarterback is ready for the NFL than what he produces under pressure. Well, the junior has made a case that he belongs high on the draft board next spring.
Allar has produced zero turnover-worthy plays to nine big-time throws in 114 pressured pockets, so SMU blitz attempts may be fruitless.
The deck is stacked against SMU, as the run concept used by Smith and the Pony Express will fail to create explosives against Penn State. The Havoc-minded nickel defense excels in creating chaos, signaling there will be further issues for a Mustangs team that's 83rd in offensive momentum killer.
One contributing factor to the low momentum number is the involvement of the officials, as SMU ranks 131st in penalties this season.
Action Network projects Penn State as a 9-point favorite. There's reason to believe Singleton will continue to create explosive runs after first contact, while heavy advantages exist for Warren against the Mustangs defense.
Considering Allar has yet to make a mistake in a crowded pocket, this will be a cover by the home team in the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Penn State -8.5 or Better
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Clemson vs. Texas Pick
The eyes of Texas and the college football world will turn to Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on Saturday when the Clemson Tigers (10-3) battle the Texas Longhorns (11-2).
Texas suffered its first loss in a thrilling overtime SEC Championship game against Georgia.
Despite an elite defensive performance that limited the Bulldogs to 4.1 yards per play, head coach Steve Sarkisian's offensive play calling could not capitalize. Frustration grew as Texas committed 11 penalties for 94 yards.
Although Clemson lost three games this season, head coach Dabo Swinney has his team in the national championship hunt.
The Tigers are making their seventh appearance in the College Football Playoff, just one behind Alabama. Despite winning the ACC Championship for the ninth time since 2011, Clemson beat SMU with just a 30% post-game win expectancy.
Swinney can parlay the conference title into four more wins for his third national title.
This is the largest playoff spread, as an opener of Texas -10.5 was quickly steamed to -12.5. The total has taken a small amount of under money to move an opener of 53.5 down to 51.
Read on for our Clemson vs Texas predictions and college football picks for this College Football Playoff battle on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson's offense struggled in the ACC Championship game against SMU, ending with less than 4.5 overall yards per play.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik produced just a single methodical drive in 15 offensive possessions, defined as a drive with at least 10 plays.
The duo of Klubnik and running back Phil Mafah produced 49 rushing yards on 27 attempts with a mix of inside zone and counter.
While the season-long Clemson numbers point to a more successful rushing attack, the emergence of freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco paid dividends against the Mustangs.
Wesco faded in the middle of the season, but he exploded against SMU with 142 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns. At 2.4 yards per route run and consistently lining up as the left side wideout, Texas corners will have their hands full with the track and field star.
Klubnik has seen the benefit of having an outside weapon beyond the slot targets of Jake Briningstool and Antonio Williams, producing the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career.
Defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin has been unable to produce the defenses of Venables before the pandemic, but one consistent factor remains: Havoc. Clemson finished top 15 in both tackles for loss and pass breakups plus interceptions.
The Tigers' 4-2-5 nickel packages have been elite in eliminating pass explosives, also contributing to a top 10 rank in hard stops, per PFF. Edge TJ Parker has been a one-man wrecking crew, from creating the fourth highest individual number of tackles for loss to ranking 17th of all edge rushers in pass rush productivity.
Texas Longhorns
Texas failed to win the SEC in its first year of the conference, producing one of the worst offensive performances of the season.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers had struggled in the most significant moments of the season, as 12 of his 17 turnover-worthy plays have come against Georgia and Texas A&M.
There have been two contributing factors to the Longhorns offense that made the playoff last season: pressure and drops.
With 60 fewer dropbacks than last season, Texas has allowed a higher pressure rate in the pocket on Ewers. The Ohio State transfer's turnover-worthy play rate has skyrocketed with a crowded pocket, moving from 1.9% in 2023 to 5.6% this season.
The good news for Texas football is that Ewers led the team to a top 25 rank in On-Target rate, a stat from Sports Info Solutions that measures accuracy.
Despite the accuracy and number of passing attempts, the Longhorns moved from 10 drops to 19 over the past year. The team's jump in drops has been a collective effort, as Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr, and Matthew Golden have combined for 11 on the season.
Coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has carried the team. After an entire SEC schedule, Texas ranks in the top two nationally in numerous categories, including Quality Drives, Finishing Drives, Coverage, and imiting Pass Explosives.
Despite losing two chaotic interior players on the defensive line from last season, Texas ranks fifth nationally in Havoc, primarily because of an aggressive pass rush.
Nearly 80% of blitz packages from the Longhorns have come with just four rushers, allowing maximum protection against opponents looking to pass. Edge rushers Barryn Sorrell and Colin Simmons have been the strength of the pass rush, producing 70 pressures this season.
Clemson vs. Texas Prediction
The handicap for Texas and Clemson starts with the offensive tackle position, considering both teams have future NFL edge rushers.
Clemson right tackle Blake Miller has failed to allow a sack all season through 531 pass-blocking snaps. Blindside tackle Tristan Leigh had a tremendous season in pass blocking until the SMU defensive line produced four pressures and a sack.
The excellent news for the Clemson offense is the progression of Klubnik with a crowded pocket, lowering his turnover-worthy play rate from 6.7% to just 3.1% since last season.
There is reason to believe edge TJ Parker will earn pressure against the Texas offensive line.
Injury to left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr created chaos for Ewers in the pocket, as backup Trevor Goosby allowed three pressures while producing one of the worst run-blocking grades on the line against Texas A&M and Georgia. Right tackle Cameron Williams has also had his share of struggles, allowing nearly half of his season-long pressures over the past two games.
Considering Parker rotates in a mix of edges with Peter Woods and Jahiem Lawson, expect protection audible from Ewers while spying for number 3.
The Clemson rush defense has left plenty to be desired this season, but one hidden advantage could come in the Texas run concept package.
The Longhorns use outside zone read concepts with Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue, with a smaller percentage of carries utilizing power. The Tigers have not been great against power run concepts, but thanks to elite defensive end play, they have a respectable 48% success rate against outside zone.
While there are opportunities for the Clemson defense to get after Texas in known passing downs, Klubnik will be asked to save the Tigers' season once again with his arm.
For all the high rankings of the Longhorns' defense, Texas ranks 57th in creating contested catches.
Clemson is not an explosive pass unit from a season-long perspective. Still, neutral efficiency from the Longhorns secondary will give Clemson a chance to Wesco, Briningstool and Williams with a clean window.
The Action Network projects Texas to win by 14, including three points of home-field advantage for the Longhorns. There is the expectation of heavy steam on the favorite as parlay cards will need an upset on Saturday in one of three playoff games.
Clemson will not have the sustained success of offense to score enough points, but the chaotic defense should keep the Tigers within the number.
Pick: Clemson +13 or Better
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Tennessee vs. Ohio State Pick
The Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, 6-2 SEC) and Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2, 7-2 Big Ten) will close out the first round of the College Football Playoff in Columbus on Saturday, Dec. 21. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
Emotions will be sky-high when these teams take the field at Ohio Stadium. The regular-season finale did not pan out for Ohio State, which lost to Michigan for the fourth straight season.
The Buckeye faithful will be sure to echo their joy or frustration for head coach Ryan Day on Saturday night.
On the other side, Tennessee drew the 9th seed in the playoff and will make the 5-hour drive to Columbus. Head coach Josh Heupel suffered 2 losses on the season — SEC road games against Arkansas and Georgia.
Cold temperatures are expected in Columbus, as Ohio State remains a -7.5 favorite in the market with the over/under at 46.
Let's dive into my Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for the final first-round College Football Playoff game on Saturday, Dec. 21.
Tennessee Volunteers
Whether the role was as an offensive coordinator at Utah State or a head coach at UCF, Josh Heupel is known for an uptempo stretch offense that creates dynamic passing angles.
Long gone is the 11-win team of 2022 comprised of quarterback Hendon Hooker and a slew of wide receivers capable of taking a slant to the end zone.
Tennessee runs the ball on 61% of snaps, implementing a number of run concepts from inside zone, counter and power.
Running back Dylan Sampson has been one of the toughest rushers in the nation, averaging 3.6 yards after first contact while creating 70 missed tackles.
🗣️ Speeding into Week 11!! 🚨 Checkout the Fastest 5 Plays from #CFB#ReelSpeed@Vol_Football, RB, Dylan Sampson
Top speed right out of traffic ⚡️21.1 MPH@dylans21527#GBO#GoVols#VolsFB#SECFBpic.twitter.com/q29eBQ7OLY
— Reel Analytics (@RAanalytics) November 11, 2024
Quarterback Nico Iamaleava must keep the Volunteers in standard downs, as the explosives drop to 124th nationally in known passing downs.
The Tennessee offensive line has also struggled in protection, ranking 74th in pass blocking, per PFF. Iamaleava has struggled in 99 dropbacks with a crowded pocket, failing to generate a big-time throw with a drop below 60% in adjusted completion percentage.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Tim Banks has created one of the best defensive resumes for Tennessee in recent history.
Edge James Pearce is the top-rated rusher at his position of all FBS players in pass-rush productivity rankings, generating 53 pressures and eight sacks on the season.
The excellence of the defensive line doesn't stop with Pearce against the pass. The Vols rank top-10 nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Edge Joshua Josephs also grades out as the best run defender at his position in FBS.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Head coach Ryan Day might coach the biggest game of his life here, as he's looking to beat an SEC team for the first time since taking over in Columbus.
Ohio State took two losses during the season by a combined four points to Oregon and Michigan.
The Wolverines produced a trio of methodical drives, winning the field-position battle while converting half of their 14 attempts on third down.
Ohio State has had consistent issues defending the rush, finishing 50th in Line Yards. The Buckeyes have had average FBS success marks against every run concept, excelling against offenses using outside zone.
Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has called the best defense in the nation when opponents reach the extended red zone, leading the nation in Finishing Drives, allowing just 1.9 points on 59 opponent scoring attempts.
The biggest issue facing the Buckeyes has been the health of the offensive line.
Blindside tackle Josh Simmons' season-ending surgery shifted starters entering the final month of the season. Center Seth McLaughlin's injury had ramifications in the rushing attack, as Michigan stuffed 42% of Ohio State's attempts.
McLaughlin won the Rimington Award for best center in the nation and should be healthy for the playoff — a major boost to an unstable offensive line.
The play of the offensive tackles may dictate the Buckeyes' chances of creating chunk yardage, as outside zone has produced an explosive on 26% of attempts.
Donovan Jackson has produced subpar grades as the left tackle in two games against Indiana and Michigan.
Austin Siereveld filled in at left guard for Jackson, producing one of the worst run-blocking grades of the season of any Ohio State lineman against Michigan.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State Prediction
There are a number of advantages for Tennessee on both sides of the ball, starting with Sampson in the backfield.
The Volunteers' inside zone with a mix of counter and power should move the chains and produce explosives against the Buckeyes defense, particularly with power.
Ohio State ranks 53rd in broken tackles allowed, as second-level tackling has been a consistent issue for the Buckeyes.
Expect a Volunteers offensive line that finished top-10 in Line Yards to give Sampson plenty of room to create first downs on every rushing attempt.
Defending the rush is critical for Ohio State, as Iamaleava ended the season with an average of 2.9 seconds per release on passing attempts. With an offensive line that thrives in run blocking, the opposite is true when it comes to protecting the Tennessee quarterback.
Explosives are not in the forecast for the offensive passing attack led by Iamaleava, particularly against a Buckeyes defense that sits third nationally in Pass EPA allowed.
Not only will scoring chances be minimal against Knowles' defense, but Tennessee also ranks 62nd in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Tennessee's defensive line will take away the outside zone run concept that Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly prefers. The Volunteers have a 70% Success Rate against outside zone, led by Pearce and Josephs at the edge position.
The Vols have struggled to tackle in the open field with a rank of 80th in broken tackles allowed. That's important if Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson can get beyond the Tennessee defensive line with another run concept.
Similar to the Tennessee offense, Ohio State must maintain attempts in standard downs, as quarterback Will Howard has just a single big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays in a pressured pocket.
Action Network projects Ohio State as a 6.5-point favorite, but the total should be considered as well.
The Tennessee defensive line, particularly the edge positions, should dominate against the run and pass.
The Volunteers' consistent issues in scoring position will continue against Knowles' 4-2-5 scheme that's the best in the nation in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Pick: Under 46.5 or Better · Tennessee +7.5 or Better · Dylan Sampson Over 91 Yards
