College Football Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s CFP Betting Card for Orange Bowl & Cotton Bowl

Welcome to the College Football Playoff semifinals. We started this postseason with 12 teams vying for a national title, but only four remain.

This week brings us two matchups, including one on Thursday night and another on Friday night.

• No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State (Orange Bowl)
• No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (Cotton Bowl)

I broke down both games and came through with two picks — a side and a player prop — for both College Football Playoff semifinal clashes this week.

So, whether you're looking for spread, moneyline or player prop plays, you can find them in my Action Network betting card below.

Let's take a look at my college football picks and CFP predictions for this week's semifinal games.

College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of College Football Playoff semifinal games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	7:30 p.m.	Notre Dame ML -135 · Wallace Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
	7:30 p.m.	Texas +6 · Henderson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Thursday, Jan. 9

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Notre Dame ML -135 · Wallace Over 41.5 Receiving Yards

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) and Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2, 8-1 Big Ten) meet in the Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Thursday, Jan. 9.

The College Football Playoff spent a decade starting with four teams in the national semifinals. In our new format of 12 teams and home games in the first round, the final four is now comprised of programs playing off 2 consecutive playoff wins.

The Capital One Orange Bowl is set with 6th-seeded Penn State taking on 7th-seeded Notre Dame. These programs are knotted up 9-9-1 all-time, last meeting in 2006 after a 14-year hiatus.

The Nittany Lions have covered 2 straight in the playoff against SMU and Boise State, a path that has left other fan bases disgruntled. Both games saw Penn State take a combined lead of 45-7 at halftime, indicating that the game plan from head coach James Franklin has been impeccable.

Notre Dame covered against Indiana in South Bend, 27-17, before winning in a delayed Sugar Bowl against Georgia, 23-10. The Irish opened as the underdog against Georgia but closed as a small favorite in a game that had heavy emotions following the terrorist attack on Bourbon Street.

Hard Rock Stadium will host one of the biggest penultimate games for two blue-blood programs. Notre Dame last won a national championship in 1988, preceded by Penn State in 1986.

Notre Dame enters as a -2.5 favorite with the over/under set at 45.5.

Let's dive into my Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for the 2025 Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Thursday, Jan. 9.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The availability of running back Jeremiyah Love will not be known until pregame warmups. The Notre Dame offense could be without its star running back who's battling a knee injury sustained in the season finale against USC that lingered into the opening round against Indiana.

Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock rushes the ball at a 57% clip with an even distribution of inside zone and gap-blocking concepts.

Once Love was injured in the Sugar Bowl, quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jadarian Price took over the game with first downs and explosives.

The Notre Dame offense didn't miss a beat without Love, as Leonard created six missed tackles with a 32-yard explosive run as Denbrock leaned heavily on inside zone runs.

Price received all the carries in man-blocking situations, averaging 3.7 yards a carry but lacking the explosiveness of Love.

Our quarterfinals preview noted the rise of wide receiver Jordan Faison, a crucial weapon for Leonard in the passing game. The sophomore caught all four targets against Georgia while also shocking the Bulldogs defense with his first two carries of the season.

Defensively, coordinator Al Golden called another gem in the Sugar Bowl. The Irish finished with nine tackles for loss against Georgia.

Notre Dame finished the regular season as the top-ranked defense in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed.

Golden prefers one of the heaviest rates of man coverage in all of college football, sending blitz at a high 36% rate. The aggressiveness has cost Notre Dame in spots, specifically with cornerback Christian Gray. The sophomore has allowed three consecutive quarterback NFL grades over 100 against USC, Indiana and Georgia.

Gray has allowed 15-of-22 targets to be caught with a grand total of 279 yards in that time frame. If there's an area for the Penn State offense to look for an explosive, expect targets toward the Irish's right cornerback.

Penn State Nittany Lions

There are many ways to describe offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. First and foremost, he's the offensive wizard who has elevated Penn State's program with explosive plays.

Franklin mentioned in his Orange Bowl press conference that he ultimately decides when the offense is aggressive or conservative, but there's no denying that pre-snap motion combined with an NFL arm from quarterback Drew Allar has destroyed opposing defenses.

The Nittany Lions have gotten healthy at the running back position at the right time of the year. Nicholas Singleton continues to mull over his NFL Draft potential through the playoff, while Kaytron Allen had a stellar Fiesta Bowl.

Allen created nine missed tackles against Boise State after averaging just 2.3 per game the entire season.

Using a heavy amount of outside zone, the Nittany Lions have generated plenty of explosives to the right side of the offense line thanks to the elite grading of right tackle Nolan Rucci.

The biggest news may be the aggressive pass attack that was transparent in the Big Ten Championship loss to Oregon — a shootout that produced double the number of explosive drives compared to the national average.

Tight end Tyler Warren has been an issue for every defense in college football, but the emergence of wideout Omari Evans spells trouble for cornerbacks in one-on-one coverage. Evans has produced at least one 20-plus yard catch in four of the last five games for Penn State.

The largest concern for defensive coordinator Tom Allen is the status of star defensive end Abdul Carter. The future NFL pass-rusher suffered an injury that required heavy bandages in the shoulder area not visible to the media during Sunday practice.

Franklin reported that an availability report will not come on Carter because the College Football Playoff doesn't require so, but stated, "It's going to come down to how he feels… I don't think there's anything that is stopping him from playing."

Penn State's ability to harass Notre Dame in the backfield relies on Carter's shoulder, a status left unknown until kickoff.

Other notable playmakers for the Nittany Lions were banged up during the Fiesta Bowl, including edge Dani Dennis-Sutton, middle linebacker Kobe King and safety Jaylen Reed.

While all were available for media availability at practice on Sunday, this is a Penn State defense that's feeling the effects of a full playoff bracket.

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Prediction

Despite the potential loss of Love, the Notre Dame offense is set to test the Penn State defense.

 Leonard will lead the inside zone and man-blocking schemes against a Nittany Lions defense that has middling FBS Success Rate numbers against those specific run concepts.

The bigger question is Penn State's ability to stop Leonard from creating explosive plays through inside zone. Allen's defense has never seen a designed run quarterback like Leonard based on the 2024 schedule that includes:

• West Virginia's Garrett Green: Outside zone for 20 yards on eight carries
• Ohio State's Will Howard: Outside zone for 34 yards on nine carries
• Washington's Demond Williams: Inside zone for 15 yards on three carries

Notre Dame will fight for every yard in standard downs with or without Love, while Leonard will take a middling FBS Success Rate against man coverage and Cover 1 from the Nittany Lions' secondary.

The edge comes in Notre Dame's elite numbers as a top-five offense in Finishing Drives, coming in as the 15th-best offense in red-zone rush touchdown rate.

The biggest edge in this game comes on the other side of the ball, when Golden will use the maximum amount of blitz to rattle Allar.

Kotelnicki has been fantastic in the scripted portion of the playoff, as Penn State has been one of the highest-scoring offenses in the second quarter all season.

The Irish could shine and take over the game when it comes to making adjustments for the second half.

Although Allar hasn't committed a single turnover-worthy play in a pressured pocket this season, there's an explanation that could generate anxiety for the Nittany Lions.

As pointed out in an excellent film breakdown from Landon Tengwall, Allar had severe issues identifying blitz and changing protection schemes. The Penn State offensive line would slide in the opposite direction of a Boise State axe blitz, a simple nose tackle stick and linebacker loop.

Allar thrived when Boise State sent four rushers, but once five or more blitz defenders came, the offensive line deteriorated. This has been a consistent issue for left guard Olaivavega Ioane all season, producing the lowest pass-blocking grade in the Power Four against the blitz packages from Ohio State, Minnesota and Boise State.

Allar's tendency to tuck the ball and take a sack has cost the Penn State offense numerous drives all season. Minnesota, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State all produced double-digit pressures, generating 11 sacks to just three throwaways from Allar.

The future NFL quarterback has struggled with his release all season, averaging 2.9 seconds per throw. Golden is sure to use outside linebacker Junior Tuihalamaka in blitz against Ioane, as Boise State threw down the blueprint of how many defenders should rush the quarterback.

Notre Dame sends five or more defenders on blitz 34% of attempts with a sky-high 61% Success Rate in creating pressure.

Notre Dame's defense has been excellent against outside zone teams and horrific against inside zone. Considering the Nittany Lions run a heavy amount of outside zone for Allen and Singleton, the Irish have the advantage defensively both on the ground and through the air.

Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings for the semifinals make Notre Dame a 2.5-point favorite, allowing investors to purchase a cheap -135 moneyline where available in the market or a -2 on the Irish.

There will be a chance for props in this game when it comes to the Penn State offense.

Gray will be targeted on the Irish defense, as Allar will consistently look to take advantage with a right-side wideout. That position belongs to Harrison Wallace III, who averages 5.3 catches per game and a high 2.1 yards per route run.

Based on his receptions per game and yards per catch, any total yardage below 51 is worth an investment on the over.

Pick: Notre Dame ML -135 OR -2 · Harrison Wallace Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 51.5)

Friday, Jan. 10

7:30 p.m. ET

ESPN

Texas +6 · Henderson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards

The Cotton Bowl will serve as a College Football Playoff semifinal with high stakes for the Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2, 7-2 Big Ten) and Texas Longhorns (13-2, 7-1 SEC). Friday's kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The two teams have met just three times in history, as the Longhorns hold a 2-1 advantage dating back to the last matchup at the 2008 Fiesta Bowl.

A win here will create an opportunity to win another National Championship. Texas has won 9 previous national titles with the last coming in 2005, while Ohio State is seeking its 9th after last winning the 1st College Football Playoff in 2014.

Texas has gone in the wrong direction over the past 3 games after entering the SEC Championship game as an 11-1 team. Head coach Steve Sarkisian took a 2nd consecutive loss to Georgia in the conference title, as Bulldogs backup quarterback Gunner Stockton led an overtime victory.

After that, Texas covered the opening line in the first round of the CFP against Clemson before nearly getting upset by Arizona State in double overtime last week.

If the feeling of Texas football is that the peak is in the rear-view mirror, Ohio State is firmly driving with eyes through the windshield. After an embarrassing 13-10 loss to rival Michigan in the season finale, the Buckeyes missed the Big Ten Championship game and were saddled to play host in the first round.

Head coach Ryan Day quickly put to rest rumors of his firing with a firm 42-17 domination of Tennessee. With revenge in mind from a Week 7 loss in Eugene, Ohio State dominated Oregon in the Rose Bowl, 41-21, to reach this point.

Ohio State enters as a -6 favorite with the over/under sitting at 53.5.

Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Friday, Jan. 10.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The run-first mentality of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has taken a step back, opting to throw in standard downs at a higher clip.

The change has paid dividends for the offense, as quarterback Will Howard hasn't recorded a turnover-worthy play through eight quarters of playoff with five big-time throws.

Only three receivers saw a target in the Rose Bowl, with slot Emeka Egbuka and wideout Jeremiah Smith combining for 259 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Not to be forgotten is the zone-read rushing attack led by TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The pair combined for 25 inside and outside zone attempts for 179 rushing yards against Oregon.

The difference with the offense can be centered around the aggressiveness in early downs.

There certainly is no fluke in Ohio State's two wins in the playoff. The Buckeyes doubled up the Ducks in overall yards per play, generating four drives that averaged at least 10 yards per play.

Oregon's number, though, was driven by the best defensive performance by Ohio State all season.

Oregon attempted 20 rushing attempts and was stuffed on 18 of them. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' 4-2-5 unit generated a 90% Stuff Rate — well above the national average of Stuff Rate 30%.

The defense's Cover 1 with Jordan Hancock as the single-high safety has allowed Caleb Downs to roam the defensive backfield, but Oregon chose to target high-percentage short-yardage throws against the Ohio State linebackers.

Sonny Styles and Cody Simon did allow 15-of-16 targets to be caught for 169 yards, a potential window for the Texas offense.

Texas Longhorns

Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has had his hands full in two playoff games, as both Clemson and Arizona State have targeted the middle of the Texas defense.

The 3-3-5 personnel has been elite on paper, ranking top-five in nearly every defensive category.

Georgia may have provided the blueprint to defeat the Longhorns in the SEC Championship, targeting tight ends and running backs between the hashmarks in the passing game.

As discussed in our quarterfinal preview, opposing offenses could find success in the slot. Arizona State spammed its running back and slot receiver for 19 targets, opening lanes for deeper shots to the wideouts.

The good news for the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl was an increase in extended red-zone efficiency, going over their season average with 3.9 points for possessions extending beyond the 40-yard line.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers continued to dominate Cover 1, throwing for more than 300 yards with three touchdowns on the day.

While the outside zone read was neutralized for just 2.5 yards per play, Ewers targeted right-side wide receiver Matthew Golden 10 times for 149 yards and a score.

Ewers' ability to pick up the blitz has kept him as the top quarterback in Austin. The former Ohio State recruit has seen blitz on 28% of snaps this season, producing a moderate 50% Success Rate.

Where Ewers stands ahead is his ability to detect blitz and fill the gap, generating a big-play rate of 22.4% with 12 touchdowns to just four interceptions.

The junior hasn't thrown an interception to the left of the hashmarks this season, recording 15 big-time throws to three turnover-worthy plays on attempts beyond 20 yards.

Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction

The handicap in this game is verifying whether or not Ohio State deserves a massive jump in power rating over the past two games.

The updated Action Network projection took an ultra-aggressive approach to changes on this Ohio State team but still projected the Buckeyes to win by three points.

Sagarin has been one of the more respected power rating services for years, making Ohio State -3.2 over Texas. Do the Buckeyes deserve the massive jump in the market, or is this another case of a team getting hot at the right time like the Joe Burrow-led LSU Tigers in 2019?

Despite the poor defensive play over the past two games, there's reason to think Texas can hang on both sides of the ball.

Ohio State plays a heavy amount of Cover 1, a zone look that the Texas passing game has dominated even as recently as the Arizona State game in the Peach Bowl.

Ewers has a high 57% Success Rate against Cover 1, generating an explosive play on a monster 23% of attempts. Oregon targeted Hancock, the deep safety, more than any other team on the schedule. The Buckeyes' safety allowed five catches and 24 yards after catch.

While Ewers has found success in the passing game, the Ohio State run defense has been elite and will have the advantage.

The outside zone from Quintrevion Wisner and Jaydon Blue has been underwhelming, and Ohio State excels in stopping the run concept. Knowles' defense produces a 59% Success Rate against outside zone, generating a negative play in nearly one of every five attempts.

The game will be decided by how well Kwiatkowski and the Longhorns can defend and adjust against Ohio State's aggressiveness.

Two players should have extreme success in attacking the middle of the Texas defense: Egbuka in the slot and Henderson in the backfield. Both attack the middle of the defense through the passing game, and Longhorns linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. has had extreme issues in coverage.

The biggest weapon in the passing game for the Buckeyes is wideout Jeremiah Smith, but Jim Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron will get the assignment at cornerback. Barron has been massive since moving from nickel to corner, producing five interceptions and nine pass breakups this season.

There's reason to believe the play of other defensive backs has improved as well.

Cornerback Malik Muhammad stepped up his play at free safety in coverage grading in the Peach Bowl, posting two pass breakups against Arizona State. Jaylon Guilbeau also allowed three catches for just 17 total yards from the slot position.

There's enough data to believe the Texas secondary can cover enough to slow down OSU's blitzkrieg offense.

While the Texas rushing attack should struggle to control the line of scrimmage, look for Ewers to have plenty of success against the Buckeyes' Cover 1 defense.

Sticking by our projections that Ohio State wins this game by no more than four points, Texas +6 is the play on the side.

If Ohio State wins the game and advances to the National Championship, Henderson will lead the heavy inside zone read along with Ebuka in the passing game.

Henderson averages 1.8 catches per game with an average of 8.2 yards per catch. His season-long average is 14.7 receiving yards per game, but Henderson has received more targets in the past two playoff games than any other game this season.

In six of the past seven games, Henderson has logged 19 yards or more in the receiving game, signaling value on his receiving yards prop.

Pick: Texas +6 or Better · TreVeyon Henderson Over 20.5 Receiving Yards or Better

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