Welcome to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
This week's games bring us four matchups, including one on Friday night and three throughout the day on Saturday.
- No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
- No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Peach Bowl)
- No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Rose Bowl)
- No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)
I broke down all four games and came through with a pick — or more — for every College Football Playoff clash this week.
So, whether you're looking for spread, total and moneyline plays or looking for player prop angles, you can find them in my Action Network betting card below.
Let's take a look at my college football picks and CFP predictions for this week's quarterfinal games.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from the Collee Football Playoff quarterfinals. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 5 p.m. | |
  | 8:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Penn State vs. Boise State Pick
PHOENIX, Ariz. — The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2, 8-1 Big Ten) and Boise State Broncos (12-1, 7-0 Mountain West) meet in the Fiesta Bowl in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The College Football Playoff moves on to the next round, a quadruple-header of neutral-site games to be played in the New Year's Six Bowls.
The first comes from Glendale, Arizona, on New Year's Eve from State Farm Stadium.
Boise State won the Mountain West and received a bye in the bracket thanks to a better ranking than ACC champion Clemson. The Broncos will be fresh for the quarterfinal game against 6th-seeded Penn State.
On the other side, the Nittany Lions already obtained their 1st-ever playoff victory on Dec. 21 — a 38-10 romp over SMU.
The winner of the Fiesta Bowl will move on to the national semifinal game in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 and will meet Notre Dame or Georgia.
Penn State enters as a -11 favorite with the over/under set at 53.
Let's dive into my Penn State vs. Boise State predictions and college football picks for the Fiesta Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head coach James Franklin gave the fan base a treat in the opening round, leading SMU at halftime in State College by a score of 28-0.
Defensive coordinator Tom Allen fired it up with a number of defensive scores, dominating the skies with three interceptions. In fact, a defensive pick-six got all of the scoring started for the Nittany Lions.
DOMINIC DELUCA 🤌 pic.twitter.com/QC8tWgXGub
— Onward State (@OnwardState) December 21, 2024
The Nittany Lions harassed the inside zone rushing attack of the Mustangs, limiting SMU to just 2.8 yards per play in 33 rushing attempts.
SMU failed to generate an explosive drive, a possession that averages more than 10 yards per play.
In the limited drives that crossed the Penn State 40-yard line, SMU averaged just 1.8 points per trip. The defense produced 11 tackles for loss and seven quarterback hurries.
The offense, under coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, posted four empty drives before rattling off four consecutive scoring possessions.
Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen were consistent, combining for 25 carries and 160 yards using the run concepts of outside zone and man blocking with a one-two punch of counter and power.
Explosives continued to be an issue for Penn State's ground game, posting just a single rush over 20 yards. The good news is quarterback Drew Allar keeps playing mistake-free football in the pocket.
Allar's odds continue to climb in the NFL Draft markets, leading a Penn State offense that is 3rd in Passing Success Rate.
The junior dominates in a pressured pocket, failing to record a single turnover-worthy play in 125 dropbacks with a crowded pocket. Allar ranks 15th in this category when hitting receivers in stride, according to Sports Info Solutions' grades for quarterbacks' on-target rates.
Boise State Broncos
Every spring, Action Network's college team hands off a number of players to our NFL experts, Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon, for all things fantasy football.
The biggest present under the Christmas tree this season may be the arrival of running back Ashton Jeanty. Soon to be everyone's first-round hope, the junior challenged to be the single-season leading rusher in college football history during 2024.
Jeanty fell short with 2,496 yards, but 29 touchdowns and two fumbles make him the most dominant force in the game.
Any fan who didn't give college football enough attention knew Jeanty's name after a near upset of Oregon in Week 2.
Ashton Jeanty is the best college RB since __________ pic.twitter.com/N9mnRJLjIT
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 8, 2024
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter returned to Boise in his position this season, calling a heavy amount of outside zone for his star rusher.
The Broncos run the ball on 57% of snaps and call rush at a top-20 rate during first downs.
Boise State received a major boost on the offensive line before the regular season's conclusion. Center Mason Randolph returned to action in Week 14 against Oregon State after a 13-week injury stint, paving the way for Jeanty to rush for 435 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the last two games.
The bigger question for Boise State comes when the offense gets off schedule.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen ended the season with an outstanding 22 touchdowns to three interceptions, but the inspection under the hood says something is off.
The junior finished with nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays, a number that skyrocketed when opponents sent a quality pass rush.
Maddux ended the season with 104 pressured dropbacks, resulting in a single big-time throw and eight turnover-worthy plays. The Boise State quarterback saw his mistake rate of 2.6% zoom to 6.9% in a pressured pocket.
Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander has a long history of calling three-man front defenses at UCF and Nebraska. One consistent issue at those stops is his team's ability to tackle in space.
Chinander cited "leverage issues [and] some eye control" as the root cause of Boise State's poor tackle grading.
PFF grades the Broncos as the second-worst tackling team in the nation, supported by a poor rank in broken tackles plus missed tackles allowed.
Penn State vs. Boise State Prediction
There are two main handicaps for the Fiesta Bowl when a semifinal spot in the Orange Bowl will be solidified.
First, will Boise State's rushing attack with Ashton Jeanty be enough to generate scoring opportunities? Second, will the Broncos contain Penn State ball-carriers in space to muster enough stops?
Starting with the Boise State offense, Penn State has been solid against outside zone with a 57% Success Rate. The Nittany Lions allow just one explosive every 10 attempts, but there may not have been a rusher with Jeanty's ability throughout Big Ten play.
While the domination of SMU is sure to be fresh in investors' minds, the Mustangs run an exclusive inside zone.
The better comparison for this Penn State defense is the outside zone nature of Oregon with running backs Jordan James and Noah Whittington in the Big Ten Championship game.
James and Whittington combined to force eight missed tackles on 15 rushing attempts, each creating two explosive rushing attempts.
Oregon found success behind an offensive line that ranks 12th in Line Yards, but Boise State has a major downshift in numbers. The offensive line for the Broncos comes in at 29th in Line Yards against a strength of schedule that sits outside the top 75.
Look for Jeanty to have some success breaking through a subpar offensive line.
Outside zone is the concept Oregon used to dominate Penn State in the conference championship, but the number of broken tackles made by Jeanty will dictate how many attempts Madsen will have in passing downs.
If Boise State gets off schedule with the offense, Madsen will be expected to throw into a Penn State defense that runs Cover 1, quarters and man coverage. The Broncos' signal-caller has only had success against Cover 3 this season, a scheme Allen rarely calls for the Nittany Lions defense.
There may be no resistance for the Penn State offense, as Kotelnicki continues to put up gaudy numbers after a horrific performance against Ohio State.
Not only do the run concepts for the Nittany Lions show that Allen and Singleton will have plenty of first downs, but Allar is expected to see minimal pressure from Boise State's pass rush that ranks 79th.
Furthermore, the Broncos defense is 115th in creating contested catches, a sign that Allar will continue to generate a high level of success and explosives against Boise's quarters coverage.
Ultimately, being the second-to-last ranked tackling team in the nation is what will keep Boise State from challenging in this game. The Broncos missed a combined 29 tackles in their last two games against UNLV and Oregon State.
No props can be considered for any of Penn State's weapons. Singleton and Allen should get the necessary rushing yards, while tight end Tyler Warren and wideout Harrison Wallace III are at the mercy of Kotelnicki's usage during the game.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings place Penn State as a 13-point favorite, a number that would give a lean to the Nittany Lions on the side.
The total may be the better investment, though, with a projection above the key numbers of 55 and 59.
The Penn State rushing attack should create scoring opportunities, and Allar isn't expected to receive pressure in passing attempts.
Tackling will remain the biggest issue for Boise State, as any Nittany Lions ball carrier should reach the second level for additional yards.
Look for Jeanty to replicate the success of James and Whittington from the Big Ten Championship, as Oregon prefers a similar run concept with an outside zone.
While Penn State owns a Success Rate of 57% in that scenario, there are signs those numbers are beefed up by a number of impotent rush offenses in conference play.
Boise State may challenge to backdoor the side or head coach James Franklin may decide to pour on another touchdown at the end, but the better wager is on plenty of points to be scored.
Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 55)
| | | |
Texas vs. Arizona State Pick
The Texas Longhorns (12-2, 7-1 SEC) meet the Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2, 7-2 Big 12) in the Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Peach Bowl will serve as the opening game on New Year's Day and the second quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff. The winner of this game will earn a trip to the Cotton Bowl in the national semifinal against the winner of Ohio State and Oregon.
The Longhorns earned their spot with a 38-24 opening win over Clemson at Darrell K Royal Stadium, flashing a handful of methodical and explosive drives.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian struggled to get the red zone offense on track through the second half of the season but showed no weaknesses against a Tigers defense that failed to control the line of scrimmage.
Now, the Longhorns return to Atlanta with an offensive line that was ravaged in the second half of the game.
Arizona State won the Big 12 and earned a bye to the quarterfinals after beating Iowa State, 45-19, in the conference championship.
The offense is relies heavily on a rushing attack that averaged more than eight yards per play against the Cyclones in Arlington — a factor that must be replicated for success in Mercedes Benz-Stadium.
Texas opened the market as a 13-point favorite, but midweek wagering and larger bet limits saw a flood of Arizona State money drop the number to as low as Arizona State +11 as of writing. The over/under sits at 51.
Let's dive into my Texas vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for the Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Texas Longhorns
Health will be a major headline for the Longhorns entering the Peach Bowl, but good news has come on the offensive line. Right tackle Cameron Williams had a precautionary MRI after an injury in the Clemson game but returned for light drills in practice this week.
Center Jake Majors was a full participant in practice, as backups Hayden Conner and Cole Hutson had above-replacement grades. Left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. returned to full strength for 75 blocks against the Tigers, grading out highly in both run blocking and pass protection.
As for the weapon around quarterback Quinn Ewers, wideout Isaiah Bond was a full participant in practice after missing the Clemson game.
Bond brings with him over 500 receiving yards and an explosive 1.9 yards per route run.
Here's the play I assume Isaiah Bond reinjured his ankle on pic.twitter.com/EOvjzuZ1gH
— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) December 8, 2024
The Texas offense will be powered by the rushing attack of Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner with a mixture of outside zone and power run concepts.
The Longhorns finished 17th in Rushing Success Rate, keeping passing downs to a minimum.
The bigger advantage may be with a healthy offensive line protecting Ewers, as Arizona State finished 132nd in pass rush.
The explosive play may be the best option for head coach Steve Sarkisian to get points on the board considering recent struggles in scoring position.
The Texas defense has a large task on deck when it comes to stopping one of the most efficient running backs in football.
The Longhorns have logged an average Success Rate against outside zone, counter and man-blocking schemes that Arizona State utilizes.
Although there's a large discrepancy in strength of schedule between the Longhorns and Sun Devils, there's a near-even ranking in Stuff Rate and Line Yards between the two teams.
The biggest issue on paper is the run defense of defensive ends Barryn Sorrell and Trey Moore, who both hold the highest missed tackle rates of any defensive player with at least 130 snaps.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Wide receiver Jordyn Tyson was a crucial loss before the Big 12 Championship that was thought to make Arizona State a one-dimensional offense.
That dimension revolved around running back Cam Skattebo, who ran for over 1,500 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season.
Arizona State runs a heavy amount of outside zone, running the Iowa State defense up a flag pole for more than eight yards per play.
Cam Skattebo is ridiculous
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 7, 2024
Iowa State missed 20 tackles against the Arizona State offense, but the unexpected offense from the passing attack was welcome by the Sun Devils.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt ended the season with 24 touchdowns to just five interceptions, leaving an excellent ratio of 11 big-time throws to just four turnover-worthy plays.
The redshirt freshman ended the season with a cool 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate in 120 dropbacks with pressure.
Leavitt contributed to the Big 12 Championship with three touchdowns and just a single turnover play. That's especially impressive considering the best receiving option for the team didn't play due to injury.
Texas vs. Arizona State Prediction
There's no doubt Ewers should have plenty of yardage in this quarterfinal, as Arizona State runs a heavy amount of Cover 3 and Cover 1. Ewers has struggled against other coverages but has dominated ASU's preferences at a high efficiency and EPA clip.
The Texas quarterback has a 56% Success Rate and a 21% big-play rate against Cover 1 and Cover 3, signaling that the return of Bond should create plenty of available yards.
Ewers could be in line for a yardage prop, particularly with the Sun Devils' poor rank in pass rush and Havoc.
Although plenty of yards are in the forecast, it hasn't always translated to points for the Texas offense. Sarkisian has elected to create methodical drives that burn the clock in recent games, particularly against both Arkansas and Kentucky. Only a late goal-line stop allowed early Texas investors to cash against Clemson.
Consider the recent Offensive Finishing Drives (points per possession extending beyond the 40-yard line) totals for Texas:
- 3.4 points per attempt vs. Clemson
- 2.0 points per attempt vs. Georgia
- 2.1 points per attempt vs. Texas A&M
The bigger issue is the missed tackles from the edge positions and Clemson's aim to expose Longhorn defenders covering the inside. Clemson used slot Antonio Williams and tight end Jake Briningstool to aim between the hashes, finding great success in moving the Tigers offense into scoring position.
Left cornerback Malik Muhammad was targeted eight times for six catches and a whopping 120 yards. Slot corner Jaylon Guilbeau was targeted seven times for five catches with 32 yards after the catch and a Clemson touchdown.
Weakside linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was picked on by Cade Klubnik all game, as he gave up two touchdowns and explosives from Briningstool and running back Jarvis Green.
Leavitt did similar damage against Iowa State, using slot Melquan Stovall for a 63-yard explosive play.
Skattebo averages 3.2 targets per game and 13.7 yards per catch, falling on the end of a receiving touchdown to win a conference championship.
Leavitt's ability to attack the middle of the defense while Skattebo generates missed tackles at a double-digit rate will be enough to keep Arizona State within the number.
Pick: Arizona State +12.5 or Better · Ewers Passing Yards Over · Stovall Receiving Yards Over · Skattebo Receiving Yards Over
| | | |
Ohio State vs. Oregon Pick
The Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2, 7-2 Big Ten) take on the Oregon Ducks (13-0, 9-0) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The Rose Bowl is considered the crown jewel of bowl season, as the sunset over Pasadena on New Year's Day can produce images of pure beauty.
Once a Big Ten vs. Pac-12 bowl, the College Football Playoff took over to allow other conferences to infiltrate the bowl game. The Rose Bowl will continue to play a role in the playoff in the future, but first, two teams from the same conference will meet in what looks like a Pac-12 and Big Ten showdown.
Oregon will make its 1st appearance as a Big Ten member, previously making 8 trips to Pasadena as a member of the Pac-12. The Ducks are 4-4 all-time in the game, having just completed an undefeated season that includes a conference championship.
Ohio State will make its 17th appearance in the game, entering with a 9-7 Rose Bowl record.
Head coach Ryan Day last competed in the Rose Bowl 3 years ago, winning by a field goal over Utah. The Buckeyes have two losses on the season: a 1-point nail-biter against this Oregon team and a chaotic conclusion to the regular season against Michigan.
Ohio State hangs in the market as a 2.5-point favorite in a rematch against the Ducks with the over/under at 55.5. The winner of this game will advance to Arlington for a Cotton Bowl spot against Texas or Arizona State.
Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinal on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State shifted gears after the loss to Oregon, tweaking the defensive scheme of coordinator Jim Knowles' 4-2-5.
Oregon is not only the lone offense to score over 30 points on the Buckeyes, but it remains the only team to exceed 17.
When asked about the changes to the defense from Knowles, the response was "a renewed intensity, line up faster and do your job."
While that could be interpreted as coach speak, the real change happened on the back end of the defense.
Caleb Downs was the most sought-after defensive player in the portal cycle a year ago, leaving Alabama and landing in Columbus.
After the Oregon loss, Knowles moved Jordan Hancock to his single high safety role in the nickel scheme that uses a heavy amount of Cover 1.
This move allowed Downs to serve as a queen on a chess board, populating every square as the most dominant force on the Buckeyes defense.
CALEB DOWNS IS HI❌. pic.twitter.com/kBYoaDhnMO
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 30, 2024
On the other side of the ball, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly found no success in a loss to Michigan, producing a low 23% Success Rate with an average of 2.96 yards per play.
The zone-read concepts for running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins were stuffed, and OSU didn't take passing shots downfield.
Quarterback Will Howard was limited to an average depth of target at 7.7 yards, producing three turnover-worthy plays against the Wolverines.
Kelly went back to the drawing board before the first round of the College Football Playoff against Tennessee. Ohio State opted to pass in standard downs, using wheel routes to running backs and other methods to create explosives against the Volunteers defense.
Howard thrived, going 24-of-29 with two touchdowns and one of the quickest release times of the season at 2.5 seconds to throw.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon has shown cracks in the defensive armor over the second half of the season. Once known for a vicious pass rush and a hoarding secondary, the defense has fallen outside the top 50 in creating contested catches.
The Ducks had been resigned to simply outscoring opponents without any indication of producing defensive stops. The difference in the Penn State game came down to a turnover at the 1-yard line that produced a quick Jordan James touchdown.
The Oregon offense uses inside zone to create a respectable Success Rate on the ground through running backs Jordan James and Noah Whittington.
Both rushers have been crucial in creating shallow catches from quarterback Dillon Gabriel, gobbling 54 targets and producing plenty of yards out of the backfield.
The heavy lifting for explosives has come from wideout Evan Stewart and slot Tez Johnson.
Dillon Gabriel DEEP to Tez Johnson🚀
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 13, 2024
The Ducks' nickel defense must improve over the play from the final month of the season. Penn State averaged 8.7 yards on the ground against Oregon on 34 rushing attempts, logging nine runs that exceeded 12 yards.
Oregon finished the season 67th in Rushing Success Rate allowed with a bottom-15 number in Stuff Rate, unable to control the line of scrimmage against any opponent.
Ohio State vs. Oregon Prediction
There are a number of takeaways from the box score produced in the first game between Oregon and Ohio State.
The Ducks won the turnover battle and held a small victory in the yards-per-play battle. Oregon had the better field position by far thanks to 157 hidden yards, averaging a starting field position of the 35-yard line compared to the 21 for Ohio State.
The Buckeyes found a 64% Success Rate in 36 passing downs, averaging 8.8 yards with 10 passes exceeding 15 yards.
Howard's slide came as time expired, but there was every reason to believe Ohio State would have made the 47-yard field goal, as kicker Jayden Fielding has gone 5-of-6 from 40 to 49 yards this season.
Fast forward to the conference championship, and the Oregon defense may be in worse shape than the initial matchup.
Penn State had no resistance to its offense in Indianapolis, posting two explosive drives and three methodical drives on 12 possessions.
Man and counter run concepts have hurt the Ducks on the ground all season — two schemes the Buckeyes use frequently.
Oregon has fallen outside the top 50 in broken tackles allowed, so second-level runs for Judkins and Henderson could create instant points.
Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke has been laser-focused on redemption in this game after giving up 162 yards to the Ducks. Since the loss to Oregon, Burke has allowed just 120 yards in seven games on 18 opponent targets.
The switch of Hancock to deep safety and Downs in multiple positions has been a great revelation for the Buckeyes. Opposing quarterbacks have an NFL rating of 59 targeting Hancock, while Downs didn't allow a catch to Purdue, Michigan, Indiana or Tennessee.
Both safeties have combined for 36 stops on the season and just six missed tackles since the Oregon game.
Look for Howard to continue his clean play against a sinking Ducks secondary, while the tweak to Knowles' 4-2-5 scheme with Cover 1 will present issues for Gabriel.
Oregon lost the yards-per-play battle in the initial matchup, so Ohio State will be sure to take a page out of Penn State's book to create quick scoring opportunities.
Pick: Ohio State ML -135 or Better
| | | |
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Pick
The first version of the Sugar Bowl came in 1935, becoming a staple of bowl season in New Orleans for nearly a century.
The game moved from Tulane Stadium to the Louisiana Superdome in 1975 and has since become a home for a bowl-bound SEC team.
After serving as a College Football Playoff semifinal several times, the game will serve as this year's CFP quarterfinal matchup between Georgia (11-2) and Notre Dame (12-1).
The Bulldogs have had as many highs and lows as an average person owning a token in the crypto market. Head coach Kirby Smart entered the season with just two losses over three years, losing twice this season to Ole Miss and Alabama.
Two wins against Texas served as the catapult to get the Bulldogs into the playoff, the first win in Austin and the second during the SEC Championship.
Notre Dame last saw Georgia in 2019, but plenty has changed since the pre-pandemic game. Led by head coach Marcus Freeman, the Irish looted LSU's offensive coordinator and the transfer portal for a mobile quarterback. Notre Dame has the most potent rushing attack in the nation.
Georgia enters the Sugar Bowl as a slight 1-point favorite with a 45.5-point over/under. The winner will advance to the Orange Bowl for a showdown against the Fiesta Bowl winner of Penn State and Boise State.
Read on for our Notre Dame vs Georgia predictionsand college football picks for the Sugar Bowl on January 1.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame wants to establish the run.
Quarterback Riley Leonard works in tandem with running backs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love to form one of the most hostile ground attacks in the nation. Using a heavy amount of inside zone, the Irish have posted a 56% Success Rate and an 18% Big Play rate against opponents this season.
Once Notre Dame pivots to straight handoffs and man-blocking concepts for the offensive line, the explosive play and success rate have boomed for the Irish offense.
Georgia ranks 36th in Rush Efficiency allowed but just 62nd in Stuff Rate.
Meanwhile, the Irish offensive line has dominated in short yardage, ranking 16th in Stuff Rate allowed with the possibility of getting a critical piece back at blindside tackle. Preseason true freshman All-American left tackle Charles Jagusah never made it to the field with a torn pectoral but is now a full participant in practice for the Sugar Bowl.
Conversely, Notre Dame's defense struggled to stop inside zone, posting a 43% Success Rate against the concept — for example, USC averaged 7.5 yards per attempt with very few stuffs at the line of scrimmage against the Irish.
Notre Dame will play without interior defender Rylie Mills, which is a blow to a defensive line that just returned Howard Cross III.
The good news for Notre Dame is that the Irish defense ranks in the top 10 nationally in red-zone efficiency.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has always been a defense-first team, but coordinator Glenn Schumann has opted for the opposite of the "bend-don't-break" model this season.
The Bulldogs play aggressively to force an early 3-and-out or a turnover. Otherwise, they generally allow opponents to walk down the field and score.
Health has been a big issue for the Georgia defense. The Bulldogs were uber-healthy in both matchups against Texas and looked dominant. Conversely, a shorthanded stop unit allowed 30 first-half points on the road against Alabama.
Mobile quarterbacks have given Georgia's defense fits — Georgia Tech's Haynes King ran for 110 yards and three scores in the in-state rivalry game.
Despite the issues, Coach Smart still led the Bulldogs to another SEC Championship and a playoff appearance.
Gunner Stockton has taken over as quarterback after a season-ending injury to Carson Beck. The second-year quarterback provided immediate offense with mobility but recorded an interception against the Longhorns through 16 passing attempts.
Georgia's biggest chore is finding chemistry between Stockton and the targets. Georgia leads the nation in drops, accumulating 20 from the team's three top targets: Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett and Arian Smith. The drops have been consistent throughout the season, with at least two in recent games against Texas, Georgia Tech and UMass.
The good news is that running back Trevor Etienne is fully healthy. Georgia prefers a heavy amount of inside zone play with a high 61% Success Rate.
The Florida transfer returned in the SEC Championship after a five-week layoff, recording 94 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The offensive line has struggled in short-yardage attempts, sinking outside the top 35 teams nationally in Success Rate. A boost from Etienne on inside zone runs could be a tough ask for the injured Irish defensive interior.
Notre Dame vs. Georgia Prediction
Georgia will have an advantage against Notre Dame through inside zone runs, but that might be the only way the Bulldogs can move the ball. USC ran a similar concept for 7.5 yards per play against Notre Dame earlier this season, but possessions were limited to turnover on downs and a pick-six.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs should chew up yards and get into scoring position, but Notre Dame's an elite red-zone defense that should keep Georgia from scoring at will.
More importantly, I don't know how Georgia stops Riley Leonard. The Bulldogs give up too many Quality Drives to mobile quarterbacks, and Leonard's Irish rank in the top 25 in the state on offense because he's among the nation's best-rushing quarterbacks (474 yards and 15 touchdowns on designed attempts).
Georgia does not have the best track record against quarterbacks with this ability, including:
- Georgia Tech's Haynes King: 24 rushes, 110 yards, 3 touchdowns
- UMass' AJ Haston: 3 attempts, 50 yards
- Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart: 8 attempts, 50 yards
- Alabama's Jalen Milroe: 16 attempts, 117 yards, 2 touchdowns
If Georgia can force Notre Dame into passing downs, Leonard's found chemistry with former walk-on receiver Jordan Faison.
Faison's dealt with an ankle injury all year but snagged seven receptions on nine targets for 12.7 yards per reception once fully healthy against Indiana.
The Action Network projects this game as a pick 'em, but Notre Dame's rushing attack should roll over Georgia's interior defensive line.
While the Bulldogs have those same advantages, the Irish have shut down opponents in the red zone.
Look for Etienne to boost a Georgia offense that has had trouble with the opening script all season. The Bulldogs boast a negative scoring differential in the first quarter, ranking 92nd nationally. Meanwhile, the Irish offense ranks eighth through the first 15 minutes.
A healthier offensive line for Notre Dame could give Georgia's second-level defenders fits.
Pick: Notre Dame +1 or Better · Trevor Etienne First-Quarter Rushing Props
