Welcome to the biggest slate of bowl season.
With eight games on the docket for Saturday, this marks by far the most college football games on a single day for the rest of the season.
That also means we have some solid matchups on deck.
I'm eyeing two games in particular.
First, the Iowa State Cyclones take on the Miami Hurricanes in a Pop-Tarts Bowl that features an options for three different flavors when it comes to the edible mascot — wild berry, hot fudge sundae and cinnamon roll.
Then, to close out the night, I'm heading to the Alamo Bowl, where the BYU Cougars will meet the Colorado Buffaloes in an all-Big 12 battle featuring the newest Heisman Trophy winner.
With so much going on today, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, Dec. 28.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Iowa State vs. Miami Pick
The Iowa State Cyclones (10-3, 7-2 Big 12) take on the Miami Hurricanes (10-2, 6-2 ACC) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Pop-Tarts Bowl took an express track to postseason stardom after a rebranding in 2023. After having many previous sponsors, Kellogg's made the quick decision to rebrand it under the Pop-Tarts umbrella last season, leading to the live frosted strawberry mascot to be toasted and eaten after a victory by Kansas State.
The Hurricanes came up short in their quest to win the ACC Championship, losing 2 of the final 3 games in road trips to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. The Cyclones also came up short of winning the Big 12 Championship in Arlington, suffering a 45-19 blowout to playoff-bound Arizona State in the conference title game.
Neither of the head coaches have been successful in bowls, as Iowa State's Matt Campbell is 3-7 against the number in bowls compared to Miami's Mario Cristobal at 2-5-1 against the spread.
The Hurricanes enter as -3.5 favorites with the over/under set at 56.5.
Let's dive into my Iowa State vs. Miami predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
Iowa State Cyclones
Quarterback Rocco Becht has not produced at the same level in terms of efficiency and explosives as he did in his true freshman season last year.
The sophomore has nearly doubled his turnover-worthy play rate while cutting drops in half.
The offensive line has remained at a steady pressure-allowed rate year over year, as Becht continues to produce the same rate of mistakes whether the pocket is clean or filled with opponents.
The good news for the Iowa State offense is the status of explosive wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both expected to play with a combined 239 targets on the season.
That's a receiving TD in seven of eight games this season for @JaydenHiggins3!
🌪️🚨🌪️ pic.twitter.com/ZJITaeYJIf
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 2, 2024
The bad news for the Cyclones comes on the defensive side of the ball, as the 3-3-5 scheme will be without their top contributors on the defensive line.
Edge Tyler Onyedim entered the transfer portal, along with reserves from the trench that struggled to produce this season. The Cyclones finished 120th in pass rush and 109th in rush explosives allowed.
The nickel defense has always been best suited to defend the pass with high marks in coverage, but potent rush offenses have had their way with Iowa State.
The Big 12 Championship loss saw Arizona State average over eight yards per play and a 58% Success Rate in standard downs.
Miami Hurricanes
Quarterback Cam Ward failed in his aspirations to win the Heisman or clinch a conference championship, but the quarterback is expected to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl despite high projections in the upcoming NFL Draft.
The only potential opt-outs for Miami may come on the offensive line with Jalen Rivers, but several other players contributed at left guard and left tackle.
Despite the potential of wide receiver Xavier Restrepo not playing, this Miami offense was top-10 in nearly every category, including Quality Drives and big-play rate.
Cam Ward has a bright future in the NFL.
He's mobile, but he's not a scrambler. That's my favorite thing about Ward. He's calm in the pocket, and when it collapses, he improvises. He does not panic and just take off running. He buys time for his WRs.
pic.twitter.com/xPms6HTTzC— O'Leary's Draft Takes (@GagesDraftTakes) December 20, 2024
Creating Havoc is the quickest way to limit the Miami offense, an area where the Hurricanes defense has thrived.
Coordinator Lance Guidry called plays for a top-20 Havoc defense that also finished top-30 in Success Rate.
The issues for Miami's defense start with poor tackling and a bottom-15 efficiency number in passing downs. This is a heavily penalized unit, ranking 121st in yards per game with nearly 70 penalty yards per game.
Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction
There will be no shortage of scoring opportunities in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Along with a poor rush defense, Iowa State failed to generate Havoc this season with an overall rank of 72nd in FBS. Ward's college career is chock-full of mistakes when Havoc is part of the equation, logging 17 turnover-worthy plays and four fumbles this season.
Without no pressure expected from a thin ISU defensive line, the Hurricanes will flex with the best offensive unit in terms of methodical drives, explosives and third-down conversion rate.
Running back Damien Martinez averaged 3.9 yards after first contact while forcing 34 missed tackles, an issue for a Cyclones defense that's 92nd in broken tackles allowed.
The bigger question is the struggles of the Iowa State offense, which ranks 14th in Quality Drives but 50th in Finishing Drives. Miami has had severe struggles when opponents reach the extended red zone, ranking 68th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins should have a clear window to catch explosives from Becht, as the Hurricanes rank 46th in creating contested catches.
Miami has caught steam in the market with the growing belief that the full roster will participate.
Our Action Network power ratings project Miami as a touchdown favorite, but the bigger advantage could come from the total. The Cyclones run a quick 25.4 seconds per play, while the Hurricanes have a large advantage in creating rush explosives.
Look to take the over with the market currently south of the key number of 59.
Pick: Over 57
| |
BYU vs. Colorado Pick
The BYU Cougars (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) face the Colorado Buffaloes (9-2, 7-2 Big 12) in the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
This all-Big 12 Alamo Bowl is set to feature two rosters that are expected to have full participation from an opt-out and transfer portal perspective.
Colorado beat oddsmakers' expectations of a 5.5-win season, finishing 9-3 and in the thick of the conference championship race.
Head coach Deion Sanders was successful in combing the transfer portal for a second season while also replacing the defensive staff. With a Heisman Trophy winner and future NFL quarterback making plans for San Antonio, the Buffaloes have a chance to win 10 games for the first time since 2016.
Despite being conference opponents, BYU has not faced Colorado since the 1988 season. Head coach Kilani Sitake had a renaissance in 2024, doubling the win total from 2023 to a 10-2 season.
Colorado enters as a -3.5 favorite with the over/under set at 54.5.
Let's dive into my BYU vs. Colorado predictions and college football picks for the Alamo Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
BYU Cougars
Quarterback Jake Retzlaff struggled to find accuracy despite high marks in explosives. The sophomore finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws, leading a BYU offense that sits outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate.
Retzlaff finished the season 77th in on-target rate, a measurement of accuracy in hitting pass-catchers in stride.
Wide receivers Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts both worked out wide and in the slot, combining for eight touchdowns on 154 targets this season.
This was a dime by Jake Retzlaff pic.twitter.com/mxGNSTkywR
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐢𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐥𝐞 (@AlcazarOfGrief) October 18, 2024
The BYU defense was elite in creating contested catches in 2024, finishing second overall in FBS with a mix of Cover 1, Cover 3 and man coverage.
Defensive coordinator Jay Hill's nickel defense finished top-25 in Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass EPA allowed.
Where the Cougars ran into trouble was against the rush, finishing outside the top 90 in defensive efficiency and second-level tackling against opposing running backs.
Fundamentals were a consistent issue with BYU, which finished outside the top 100 in broken tackles allowed.
Colorado Buffaloes
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders raised his level of play in passing attempts from his first season in Boulder. Sanders ended the season with 25 big time throws to just six turnover-worthy plays, lowering his mistake rate to just 1.1% on 458 pass attempts.
The future NFL quarterback ended the season 11th in on-target rate, utilizing Heisman winner Travis Hunter on 115 targets. Although Hunter played both sides of the ball, the wide receiver averaged an explosive 2.5 yards per route run on offense.
And with the first pick in the NFL Draft, the Carolina Panthers select Travis Hunter@CUBuffsFootball | #GoBuffspic.twitter.com/alSbLtgTTl
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) August 30, 2024
The biggest improvement came on the defensive side of the ball, as Colorado beefed up its defensive line under new coordinator Robert Livingston.
The 3-3-5 scheme finished 13th in Havoc, a product of a top-15 coverage unit and a top-15 number in sacks.
Livingston runs one of the heaviest amounts of man coverage, a 50% rate shared with Cover 1.
The Buffaloes made massive improvements when opponents reached scoring position, allowing just 3.4 points on 64 drives that crossed the Colorado 40-yard line.
BYU vs. Colorado Prediction
The biggest handicap is simply identifying full participation of both rosters, particularly that of Colorado with Sanders and Hunter expected to head to the NFL.
The Buffaloes' passing offense is dead even in the analytics with the Cougars' secondary.
BYU's rank of second in contested catches will be key considering its poor pass rush rank.
Colorado is not expected to get any push in the rushing attack with a Line Yards rank in the bottom 25 of FBS, putting this game on the arm of Sanders and a slew of explosive targets.
There are similar advantages for the Colorado secondary with man coverage against Retzlaff. The quarterback has a mid-FBS Success Rate of 49% against all Colorado coverage packages, as no explosives are expected against Cover 1.
BYU running back LJ Martin led the rushing attack behind an offensive line that finished inside the top 40 in terms of efficiency and Line Yards. There are minor advantages for BYU when it comes to creating Quality Drives, but execution in the red zone has been a consistent issue.
Action Network projects the Alamo Bowl at Colorado -4 with the assumption of full roster participation for both sides. However, the better wager would come on a total that's dipping in the market.
Both quarterbacks will lead passing offenses straight into the best features of the opposing defenses. While BYU has the better rushing offense, the Cougars rank 96th in red-zone touchdown rate.
Pick: Under 55 (-120 or Better)
