College Football Predictions, Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bowl season rolls on with the final multi-game day of the season.
Friday's college football bowl slate features two games: North Texas vs. Texas State in the First Responder Bowl and Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech in the Duke's Mayo Bowl.
Our college football writers broke down both games from a betting perspective and came through with a pick to each.
So, whether you're looking for a low-scoring early game or trying to figure out which head coach will end up doused in mayonnaise, we have you covered.
Let's take a look at our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the First Responder Bowl and Duke's Mayo Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3.
First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction
By John Feltman
The First Responder Bowl is set to take place on Friday afternoon between the North Texas Mean Green (6-6, 3-5 AAC) and Texas State Bobcats (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt). Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
In normal circumstances, this matchup would be points galore. But, as listed below, a lot of key players are unavailable for various reasons on both sides.
Texas State enters as a -13.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 62.5.
Let's dive into my North Texas vs. Texas State predictions and college football picks for the First Responder Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3.
North Texas Mean Green
North Texas is a team that will be missing plenty of pieces for its bowl game on Friday.
North Texas Transfer Portal
- Starting QB Chandler Morris (committed to Virginia)
- Starting WR DT Sheffield (committed to Rutgers)
- Starting TE Oscar Hammond (committed to Oregon State)
- Starting C Tyler Mercer (committed to Kansas)
- LG Leke Asenuga (585 snaps; been injured)
- WR Nick Rempert (257 snaps)
- RT MaKyi Lee (246 snaps)
- S Jayven Anderson (181 snaps)
- CB Kerry Williams (113 snaps)
- WR Jeremiah Aaron (97 snaps)
- RB Ikaika Ragsdale (58 snaps; injured Week 2)
- RB Shane Porter (listed on bowl depth chart)
Thanks again to Stuckey for providing terrific daily updates in his opt-out/transfer portal article.
Without Morris, the Mean Green offense is essentially nonexistent. The Mean Green will turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, but as you can see, Morris is not the only offensive skill player who won't be available.
Much like the Bobcats, I really think the offense is going to struggle. I have very little confidence in Mestemaker, especially against an underrated Texas State defense.
North Texas Injuries
Jett Duncan and Leke Asenuga suffered late-season injuries on the interior offensive line. Still, Duncan is back on the depth chart as the starting C. UNT also lost starting OT Larry Moore midway through the season.
Three true freshmen are set to start for the Mean Green.
Texas State Bobcats
Much like North Texas, there's a lot of significant news for the Bobs that needs to be mentioned. There are many players in the portal and a couple of opt-outs.
Texas State Transfer Portal
- Starting RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona)
- Starting RT Alex Harkey (committed to Oregon)
- Starting CB Josh Eaton (committed to Michigan State)
- Starting DT Terry Webb (375 snaps)
- Starting DT Tavian Coleman (355 snaps)
- DT Dominique Ratcliff (318 snaps)
- DE Ben Bell (opted out earlier in the season)
Texas State Potential Opt-Out
- LG Nash Jones
Starting tight end Konner Fox didn’t play in the finale, and defensive end Steven Parker (367 snaps) missed the final three games.
QB Jordan McCloud will also play, but there's a good chance he's not in the game very often. That would be disastrous for the Bobs, and given that news, I have difficulty envisioning they can cover a large spread.
The loss of Mahdi in the backfield is also huge given the fact that he ran for nearly 1,000 yards and chipped in 195 receiving yards with six all-purpose touchdowns.
North Texas vs. Texas State Pick
It’s so tough for me to lay points with Texas State here, even with all of the offensive players out for North Texas.
With that said, I think the best betting approach in the matchup is the under. I never would’ve thought I'd be interested in taking an under between North Texas and Texas State, but here we are.
The Texas State defense was vastly underrated throughout the regular season. It ranked in the top 40 in Rush Success Rate allowed, Pass Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards, Havoc allowed and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Given the fact that North Texas can't run the ball at all, I think the Mean Green are going to struggle mightily to move the ball without Morris.
On the offensive side of the ball for Texas State, I can't trust its offense for the whole game with McCloud not slated to play the entire game.
I don't care how bad the North Texas defense was throughout the regular season — to me, all of the Bobcats' excellent offensive numbers go out the window.
Both of these offenses typically love to go uptempo, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them slow things down, given that they won't be at full strength on that side of the ball.
I definitely wouldn't trust the over, especially with North Texas‘ offense being a complete question mark. It’s the under all the way for me.
Pick: Under 61.5 (Play to 58.5)
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Duke's Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Prediction
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten) take on the Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6, 4-4 ACC) in the Duke's Mayo Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
The College Football Playoff quarterfinals have come and gone, but we still have a few bowl games to go. One of those is the 2024 Duke's Mayo Bowl.
This is seemingly always an entertaining bowl game, and I don't expect it to play out any differently.
Minnesota enters as a -8.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 42.5. So, where does the betting value lie, and which side will see its head coach get doused in mayo?
Let's take a look at my Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech predictions and college football picks for the Duke's Mayo Bowl on Friday, Jan. 3.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota enters its final game of the season at 7-5, but I believe it's much better than that record suggests.
The Gophers started the season with a heartbreaking loss to North Carolina, lost by three at Michigan and fell by just a single point to CFP semifinalist Penn State.
Additionally, head coach PJ Fleck's team finished the year 5-2 and took a significant leap once quarterback Max Brosmer gained full comfort in a new offensive system.
Availability-wise, just about everyone who's healthy will play against Virginia Tech. Starting right tackle Phillip Daniels has signed with Ohio State and backup running back Jordan Nubin entered the portal, but the rest of the roster should be a go.
I believe Minnesota has a physicality edge in this matchup and should be able to win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
Beyond that, Brosmer has had plenty of success through the air and should have plenty of open receivers against a mediocre Hokies secondary.
The Gopher defense should make its way into the VT backfield and cause some Havoc against a Tech offensive line that ranks 80th nationally in Line Yards.
As long as Minnesota plays a clean game and capitalizes in the red zone, it should control how this game plays out.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech fans had big expectations entering the 2024 season, but the Hokies did not live up to the hype. A 6-6 record filled with several painful losses resulted in many entering the portal or opting out of this game.
Five of VT's six losses came by one possession, with the other coming by 10 points. This team had the pieces to have a solid year but couldn't quite get over the hump.
Some notable starters who will likely not be suiting up for Virginia Tech in this game include left tackle Xavier Chaplin, center Braelin Moore, cornerback Mansoor Delane, safety Mose Phillips and linebacker Sam Brumfield.
Additionally, Tech is expected to be without quarterback Kyron Drones, so it will either be Collin Schlee or Pop Watson at quarterback.
The Hokies sat outside the top 100 in Pass Success, which should be magnified without Drones while going up against a very solid Minnesota secondary.
The Gophers are also plenty strong against the run, so it's difficult to imagine many paths to offensive success in this game.
On the other side of the ball, VT must try to get pressure on Brosmer and force a turnover or two.
The Hokies' best chance in this game is to limit the number of possessions and play from out in front.
Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech Pick
Ultimately, I expect the Golden Gophers to pull away in this game in the second half. Minnesota had the stronger roster to begin with, and now it also has fewer opt-outs to manage.
Fleck has a pristine track record in bowl games, and I think he'll have his team plenty fired up to secure another victory.
There are too many concerns with the Hokies on both sides of the ball for me to have much faith in their operation.
With the spread still hovering inside single digits, there's enough value out there for me to take the Gophers to cover this number.
Row the Boat. Ski-U-Mah. Go Gophs.
Pick: Minnesota -8.5 (Play to 9.5)
