After a day off for Christmas, bowl season rolls on with three games on Thursday.
First, we'll turn our attention to the GameAbove Sports Bowl, where the Pitt Panthers take on the Toledo Rockets in a Power Four vs. Group of Five showdown.
A few hours later, we'll take a look at the Rate Bowl between the Big Ten's Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Big 12's Kansas State Wildcats.
Then, to close out the night, the Arkansas State Red Wolves and Bowling Green Falcons will meet in the 68 Ventures Bowl.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the three-game slate on Thursday, Dec. 26.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of NCAAF bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 5:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Pitt vs. Toledo Pick
The Pitt Panthers (7-5, 3-5 ACC) enter the GameAbove Sports Bowl to square off against the Toledo Rockets (7-5, 4-4 MAC) up at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With it being bowl season, there are a handful of transfers and opt-outs on both sides to consider when analyzing this matchup. Check out Stuckey's bowl opt-out/transfer portal tracker to keep up to date on the latest moves.
The Pittsburgh Panthers are currently a 7-point favorite against Toledo with an over/under of 50 points.
Will the ACC show dominance in this one, or can the Rockets and the MAC keep this one close?
Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers finished the season on a sour note after starting the year 7-0 and dropping five straight to close the season. Head coach Pat Narduzzi would like to send his seniors out on a positive note in a game they're supposed to win.
He will have to do so without starting quarterback Eli Holstein, backup quarterback Nate Yarnell and starting running back Desmond Reid, who are all out with injuries.
Narduzzi will also be without leading wide receiver Konata Mumpfield, who has opted out of this one.
Freshmen David Lynch or Julian Dugger will look to lead the new-look Panther offense that averaged 31.8 points per game this season.
The Panthers ranked 26th in Rush Success Rate, but that was with their starting running back and a more mobile Holstein.
The top leading rusher remaining has only 208 rushing yards on the season, so we will see if senior running back Daniel Carter is ready to step up with an offensive line that remains mostly intact.
A new starting QB makes the pass attack the real question mark, whether it be Lynch or Dugger. The unit ranked 36th in Pass Success Rate and 40th in Pass Explosiveness. Without its best offensive skill positions, I expect this offense will struggle, especially in the first half trying to gel with all of the new players.
The Panthers defense has a few opt-outs, namely defensive tackle Nahki Johnson, but most of this unit will be back together. They allowed 26.8 points per game this year and normally hold their own in terms of Success Rate. The Panthers rank 59th in Success Rate allowed, but their problem has been limiting big plays.
If they want to cover the touchdown, they will need to be better than 120th in Explosiveness allowed and win the turnover battle, where they're net -1 on the season.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo, like Pitt, finished on a sour note after losing their last two, including a blowout loss against Ohio and a bad road loss at Akron.
The Rockets should have everyone back who played in their season finale against the Zips. This will be crucial, as they can't afford many opt-outs in this one despite Pitt losing many skill players.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason and the Rockets offense averaged 26.7 points per game. This offensive production has leaned on a stellar pass attack that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate and 18th in Pass Explosiveness. It's no secret the Rockets want to run the ball, ranking 36th in Rush Rate.
Look for them to try to lean into the ground game early but put the ball in Gleason’s hands late to win them the football.
Toledo has done pretty well defensively this season, allowing just 21.3 points per game. It's done so mainly by limiting explosive plays, ranking 50th in Explosiveness allowed.
This defense's weakness is in the secondary for a team that ranks 70th in Pass Success Rate allowed. Taking advantage and holding its own against the new quarterback Pitt will bring will be the test of the night.
I suspect they will find success early as Pitt’s quarterback tries to settle in but could be exposed in the second half if the Panthers figure it out offensively.
Pitt vs. Toledo Prediction
With so many new pieces for Pitt’s offense in key positions playing in this one, I suspect the Panthers to come out slow in this one trying to make quick throws and let their quarterback settle in.
With Toledo’s emphasis on running the football, I don't think they will force the issue of scoring points in this one unless they have to as the game progresses.
Because of Pitt’s new-look offense and Toledo’s ground game, I plan to take the first-half under 24.5 in this one.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5
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Rutgers vs. Kansas State Pick
By Doug Ziefel
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5, 4-5 Big Ten) finally showed that they belong in the Big Ten; their 7-5 record earned them a date with a Kansas State Wildcats (8-4, 5-4) team that was in Big 12 title contention before stumbling down the stretch.
While there's an apparent gap between these two programs, one thing that likely won't be missing from this matchup is many of its best players. Rutgers may be missing a few defensive starters, as well as star running back Kyle Monangai.
Can the Wildcats' depth help them close out the year strong, or will the Scarlet Knight cement their season with a great bowl performance?
Kansas State enters as a -7 favorite with an over/under of 52.
Let's dive into my Rutgers vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for the Rate Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
We needed to highlight the status of running back Kyle Monangai, as he's the Scarlet Knights' offense. The senior running back carried the ball 256 times this season, and that's with missing a game due to injury.
Moanangai leads a relentless ground attack that averages 4.1 yards per carry and has shown to wear on opposing defenses. However, it remains to be seen if it can damage this Kansas State unit.
However, according to head coach Greg Schiano, Monangai won't play in Thursday's Rate Bowl.
The Wildcats defense is the unit that made them a conference title contender, and specializes in shutting down the run game. Kansas State ranked 29th in yards per rush allowed and will have tremendous edges in the trenches here.
Kansas State's front outranks Rutgers in Line Yards 17 to 86 on this side of the ball. That means there won't be much push for the ground game, and that will still be this Rutgers offense.
If the ground game is nonexistent, it will be up to quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis's arm, and that outlook is also bleak. Kaliakmanis ranked 121st in completion percentage and 95th in yards per pass this season.
Kansas State Wildcats
On the other side, the Wildcats also heavily rely on the ground game. They rank the ball at the 59th-highest rate in the country and have had great success doing so, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, which is good for fifth nationally.
However, running back DJ Giddens did the majority of that work. Giddens has declared for the NFL Draft and will be missed in this matchup, but given the Wildcats' edge in the trenches and solid depth, we may not see them miss a beat.
Rutgers was a team punished by the ground game this season, as their opposition averaged five yards per carry against them. We should see Kansas State move the ball at will on the ground as they outrank Rutgers 31 to 90 in Line Yards and 54 to 117 in Rush Success Rate.
Much of that work will likely be done by backup running back Dylan Edwards, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 56 attempts this season.
Like we've seen all season, the work on the ground sets up explosive pass plays, and those should be available against a Rutgers secondary that could be without two starters.
Rutgers vs. Kansas State Prediction
The market has held firm on this matchup because this line is nearly correct. Kansas State can dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball, allowing them to pull away in this matchup.
We saw a quick dip to 6.5, but that was quickly brought back up to seven. If you can get it under seven, the juice is worth paying for, but laying seven or even an alt 9.5 are numbers you should be comfortable with here.
This is much more of a mismatch than the records show, and we'll see it on the scoreboard.
Pick: Kansas State -7 (Play to -7.5)
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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Pick
In an era of increasingly obscure sponsors slapping their names on bowl games, the 68 Ventures Bowl certainly ranks up there.
While this game lacks a trophy as exciting as a bespoke Pop-Tart toaster, it brings one of college football’s most electric offensive players in Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. The tight end could break two all-time NCAA records if things shake his way.
Fannin’s Falcons (7-5, 6-2 MAC) are searching for their first bowl win in a decade when Dino Babers led the program to a victory in the Camellia Bowl. Head coach Scot Loeffler has turned the program around during his six-year tenure to get the Falcons back to their third straight bowl appearance.
Arkansas State (7-5, 5-3 Sun Belt) hasn’t won a bowl game since 2019, but head coach Butch Jones has similarly turned the RedHawks program around during his four-year stint, increasing his team’s win total each season.
The Bowling Green offense is essentially fully loaded for this bowl matchup. Will that be enough to propel the Falcons to a touchdown-plus victory?
Bowling Green enters as a -8.5 favorite with an over/under of 53.5.
Let's dive into my Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green predictions and college football picks for the 68 Ventures Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 26.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
It took four years, but Butch Jones finally managed a winning season at Arkansas State. The Red Wolves won four of their final six games to secure an above-.500 season and can now give the former Tennessee coach his first bowl victory since those Volunteers won the Music City Bowl in 2016.
Arkansas State’s seven-win season is all the more impressive considering how poorly its defense has played. The Red Wolves rank 129th in total defense, allowing 460.3 yards per game and finished 11th in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (32.3 points allowed per game).
The Red Wolves defense will be without corner Dontay Joyner, who entered the transfer portal after finishing fifth on the team in tackles and led the defense in passes defended.
To overcome the defensive flaws, Arkansas State must rely upon its multi-headed rushing attack led by running backs Zak Wallace and Ja’Quez Cross. Both backs have over 600 yards rushing, with Wallace being the more dangerous scoring option with his 10 rushing touchdowns, compared to Cross’ two.
Arkansas State also has one of the Sun Belt’s most dangerous receiving options in Corey Rucker who is fourth in the conference with 946 receiving yards. Quarterback Jaylen Rayner has connected with Rucker for five of his 14 passing touchdowns.
Bowling Green Falcons
There were some dark years, but Scot Loeffler has finally rebuilt the Bowling Green football program. A win over Arkansas State would give the Falcons eight wins, something they haven’t reached since 2015.
Since that year, Bowling Green has had a winless season and three more with three or fewer wins.
The Falcons came painstakingly close to reaching the MAC Championship this year before a season-finale to Miami (OH) dashed those plans. That loss ended a five-game winning streak for Bowling Green, who uses a balanced offense and has one of the conference’s better defenses.
Leading rusher Terion Stewart has already entered the transfer portal and committed to Virginia Tech, but he will be suiting up one more time for the Falcons after an 890-yard, six-touchdown season.
Bowling Green also has tight end Fannin available. Entering the bowl game with 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and nine touchdowns, Fannin needs just 11 yards against Arkansas State to break Jace Amaro's single-season receiving yardage record for tight ends set in 2013.
The stud pass-catcher is also 12 catches from setting the single-season receptions mark for the position.
Defensively, Bowling Green has consistently shut down opposing passing offenses.
The Falcons finished second in the MAC in pass defense and had the conference’s second-most interceptions (11). Bowling Green also only allowed 16 touchdowns to conference foes, the second-fewest in the MAC.
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Prediction
In a vacuum, Arkansas State’s defense is already concerning. The RedHawks have one of the worst all-around defenses in the Sun Belt and are near the bottom nationally in a handful of defensive metrics.
Usually, some of these holes are minimized in bowl season because the best skill-position players have been increasingly likely to opt out. But that’s not the case for Bowling Green.
The Falcons' offense is expected to be as close to status quo as possible, and whether it's through the air or on the ground, the Bowling Green offense is going to have a huge leg up.
Bowling Green has, at times, been bullied at the line of scrimmage, so I expect Arkansas State to hit one or two home runs rushing the ball, but it won’t be enough to keep pace.
The Falcons shouldn’t have much difficulty moving the ball and will win this by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Bowling Green -7.5 (Play to -8)
