It was another good week at 9-4 overall despite North Texas' goal-line shenanigans, which drove me up a wall. But it's onto the next week as always.
After a horrific 10-22 start, I've gone 43-17, which just highlights the week-to-week variance when betting college football. A few bounces or injuries here or there can always swing a Saturday from good to bad or vice versa. I can't guarantee anything other than the fact that there will be more good and bad weeks, so always bet responsibly.
For Week 12, I have highlighted my 11 favorite spots that I had circled for Saturday's slate. Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. That's where it all starts. Matchups also matter.
Lines may be from the time of writing earlier in the week, so I'll always log what I bet in the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for those who will read later in the week.
Ultimately, my goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were considering by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football picks, predictions and situational betting spots for Week 12.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 53-39-1 (57.6%)
- Overall: 152-109-2 (58.2%)
Stuckey's Week 12 College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Northwestern +30.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Arkansas +14.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | UMass +14.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Air Force +4.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Baylor -1.5 |
  | 4 p.m. | Old Dominion +4.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | San Jose State +14 |
  | 7 p.m. | Kansas State -8.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | South Alabama +8.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Georgia -9 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas +3.5 |
Northwestern +30.5 vs. Ohio State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network ⋅ Wrigley Field
How much does Ohio State really care about this game with Indiana and rival Michigan on deck? Its Big Ten title hopes (and chance at a bye in the College Football Playoff) will essentially come down to next week's marquee matchup with the Hoosiers, who will enjoy the benefit of a bye this week.
As a result, I'm not sure Ryan Day and company will want to show much and will likely focus on staying healthy and resting up once they build a sizable lead.
Meanwhile, Northwestern is still fighting for bowl eligibility and should come out with a game effort out of the bye week.
The Wildcats offense is extremely limited, but they do have a top-30 defense that does an outstanding job of limiting explosives.
Ultimately, they should make Ohio State work for their points, which should, in essence, help shrink this game. That's an ideal formula for a conference underdog of more than four touchdowns with a low total.
This is purely a hold-your-nose special in a good situational spot, as I'm not sure you get the sharpest Ohio State effort for a sleepy noon kick at Wrigley Field, especially with bigger fish to fry coming up next.
And while Northwestern will have a hard time moving the ball, maybe it can turn one or two red-zone trips into touchdowns. Ohio State's defense is elite, but it has also been extremely fortunate inside the 20, allowing the fewest points per trip in the nation.
Notable Nugget
This will mark only the second time Northwestern has caught over four touchdowns since 2005.
The only other instance occurred back in 2022, also at home against Ohio State, which only won 21-7 in a wind-filled game as a 37.5-point favorite.
Since 2020, conference home underdogs catching 30+ have gone 10-3 ATS. Since 2010, in conference games with a spread of more than 30 and total of 46 or less, the over has gone 36-8.
Projection: Northwestern +27.8
Pick: Northwestern +30.5 (Play to +28.5)
| | | | | | | |  | | |
Arkansas +14.5 vs. Texas
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Are we 100% positive Texas is in the elite tier of college football this year to warrant laying over two touchdowns at Arkansas? The Longhorns very well could be, but they don't have many rock-solid data points with a strength of schedule that sits outside the top-50 nationally.
They played a decimated Florida squad starting a third-string quarterback last week, and prior to that result, every power conference team on their schedule has had massive struggles outside of Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Well, the Commodores only lost by three at home, while the Bulldogs won by double-digits in Austin. Of the eight SEC teams ranked in the current top 25, Texas has only played one and lost in convincing fashion in that game on their home field.
Arkansas has had its moments this season, highlighted by an upset win over Tennessee, but the Razorbacks did also get blown out by LSU and Ole Miss at home in large part due to extreme struggles in coverage.
That's obviously my biggest concern against Texas' speed. Head coach Sam Pittman stated they're basically holding an open competition in the defensive backfield, so it remains to be seen who the Hogs ultimately roll with on the back end.
Regardless, I just think you get Arkansas' best effort in what becomes its Super Bowl out of the bye week, which is extremely beneficial for a pair of very good coordinators in OC Bobby Petrino and DC Travis Williams.
After the time off, the Hogs should also have a much cleaner bill of health, especially at quarterback and running back. Trotting out a less-than-100% Taylen Green certainly didn't help matters prior to the bye since his mobility is paramount, especially in this particular matchup. The defense probably won't have much success, but the offense can score enough to stay within two touchdowns.
During Pittman's era in Fayetteville, his teams have consistently played their best football when nobody gave them a chance against a superior opponent. This game fits that mold perfectly.
Notable Nugget
As an underdog, Sam Pittman is 22-10 ATS (68.8%), which includes a sparkling 10-3 ATS mark (76.9%) when catching double digits.
Projection: Arkansas +13.1
Pick: Arkansas +14.5 (Play to +14)
| | | | | | | | | | |
UMass +14.5 at Liberty
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I struggle to see how Liberty really cares about this nonconference road game at UMass. Coming into the season, Liberty had College Football Playoff aspirations, but those are now completely shot.
The Flames still have an outside shot of winning their conference, but it will require a pair of wins over Western Kentucky and Sam Houston to close out the regular season, as well as some help elsewhere.
Are they really going to be focused or fully prepared for lowly UMass, especially with a noon kick in Amherst? I have my doubts.
Plus, this Flames team has been extremely underwhelming all year despite a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 150 nationally (including FCS teams, per Sagarin).
Unlike last year when they dominated inferior teams on a weekly basis, this year's team has had numerous head-scratching results. They easily could've lost at New Mexico State and actually did get upset as a nearly four-touchdown favorite at Kennesaw State.
Those are two of the worst teams in the entire country. Plus, it also needed overtime to beat Florida International at home.
The Flames have significant holes on both sides of the ball due to a laundry list of injuries and some key portal losses they just haven't adequately replaced.
I also wouldn't be surprised if head coach Jamey Chadwell holds out a key player (or two) who has been dealing with injuries.
While Liberty will hit the road for its second straight road game, UMass will benefit from a much-needed bye week.
That should enable the offense to get more comfortable with a new signal-caller after losing Taisun Phommachanh to a season-ending injury. I'd imagine Ahmad Haston gets the start, but we could also see freshman AJ Hairston.
There's certainly an element of surprise that could work in the Minutemen's favor. Haston does at least have previous experience, and I don't think the drop-off from Phommachanh is material.
UMass is not a good football team by any stretch, but it has demonstrated a much higher ceiling in 2024 than we have seen in recent seasons.
The Minutemen have fared particularly well against the upper echelon of the MAC in a trio of road games. They outplayed Toledo statistically in an easy cover, lost in overtime to Miami (OH) and were tied in the fourth quarter against Northern Illinois.
Liberty should have success running the ball with Quinton Cooley against a weak UMass defensive front, but the passing attack really lacks juice this year. Ultimately, I'm just banking on the flat spot with a number I make under two touchdowns in a game that's essentially meaningless for Liberty.
Plus, per his own words, Chadwell isn't the type to normally run up a score late, which could help late if needed.
Notable Nugget
As a favorite of more than 10 points, Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell has gone just 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%).
Projection: UMass +11.9
Pick: UMass +14.5 (Play to +13.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Air Force +4.5 at Oregon State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
I'm fading this Oregon State team until further notice. The Beavers have lost four straight (two as a favorite) and have issues on both sides of the ball.
I'm not sure where this team is at mentally, which is not ideal during a week when full attention will be required to prepare for a unique offense.
Let's start with the offense. The Beavers recently turned to quarterback Ben Gulbranson, who just isn't a fit for offensive coordinator Ryan Gunderson's offense, which operates at its best with a dual-threat under center.
Gulbranson came to Corvallis as a pro-style signal-caller, which fit what previous head coach Jonathan Smith wanted to do.
The rushing attack was the strength of the team but now becomes less efficient with Gulbranson running the show.
The Beavers still have a very good offensive line, but they really miss Jam Griffin (who remains sidelined with an injury), resulting in an increased workload for Anthony Hankerson, who has started to wear down as a result.
Plus, the Air Force defense is much stronger against the run than pass. There's only so many times Oregon State can target wide receiver Trent Walker on the outside.
While the offense continues to trend down as it deals with an identity crisis and a new quarterback who doesn't really fit schematically, the defense has been porous all season, especially against the run.
On the season, the Beavers rank outside the top 130 nationally in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed. They are one of only 10 teams in the country allowing more than 5.5 yards per carry.
Well, that's obviously problematic against Air Force's triple option.
Last week, Air Force ran it a whopping 80 times en route to an upset victory over Fresno State. It can follow that same formula this week by just churning three-to-four yards at a time against a defense that only has 32 tackles for loss on the season. For reference, only Georgia State and Temple have fewer.
The Falcons are a bad football team, but they at least now have the best option under center for running the triple. They also appear to definitely be trending up after a complete roster reset in the offseason, while the opposite holds true for the sinking Beavers.
Notable Nugget
Since 2010, Air Force has only been a home dog in the month of November five times under head coach Troy Calhoun. It won all five outright, including last week's upset of Fresno State as a double-digit underdog.
Projection: Air Force +3
Pick: Air Force +4.5 (Play to +4)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Baylor -1.5 at West Virginia
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I'm not sure many realize how well Baylor is playing of late. After a blowout loss at Iowa State, the Bears have won three straight and will come in fresh off the bye week for their trip to Morgantown.
Keep in mind that their two losses prior to Iowa State came against the two teams sitting atop the Big 12 standings in Colorado and BYU — both by one possession with the former coming in overtime after the Buffaloes completed a Hail Mary as time expired to end regulation.
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers will return home after a grueling two-game road trip that saw them win back-to-back one-possession games against a reeling Arizona team and Cincinnati.
While impressive on the surface, the 'Neers had no business winning last week in Cincinnati. They simply benefited from extreme turnover luck in a game they finished with 15 fewer first downs and under 250 total yards of offense. Just take a look at how they scored:
- Absolutely gifted pick-six
- 31-yard FG drive following a Cincy fumble
- 41-yard TD drive after a big punt return
- 51-yard TD drive
- Fumble return for a TD
That's 31 points on drives that totaled 123 yards. Talk about getting lucky!
More importantly, this is a favorable matchup for Baylor.
Regardless of who's under center between Nicco Marchiol (who has started the past two games) and Garrett Greene, West Virginia is a run-first offense. Everything flows from the ground game.
Well, that plays right into the strength of Baylor's defense, which ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and has allowed only 3.8 yards per attempt in 2024.
The Baylor secondary can be attacked a bit, but its metrics are certainly impacted by a number of injuries earlier this season. The Bears should come into this one fully healthy on the back end and can hold their own against a fairly underwhelming Mountaineer passing attack that's also dealing with wide receiver injuries.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor's season-long rushing metrics aren't stellar, but it's been much better since making a change at left tackle and with the recent emergence of freshman back Bryson Washington. While the Bears have had more balance of late, WVU's stout run defense will certainly make things difficult in the trenches.
However, quarterback Sawyer Robertson and company can fully exploit a horrid West Virginia secondary that ranks 130th in coverage, per PFF, and 133rd in EPA per Pass.
There's no reason why Baylor shouldn't move the ball efficiently through the air all afternoon.
For what it's worth, from a pure net yards per play perspective sans garbage time, Baylor ranks 46th at +0.55, while West Virginia is at 77th (-0.25) with a relatively similar strength of schedule.
I don't show a ton of value in the Bears from a power ratings perspective, but I like anything under a field goal based on the spot and matchup against a Mountaineers team that would be 0-4 straight up in Morgantown against FBS teams this season if not for a miraculous comeback victory over Kansas.
Notable Nugget
Neal Brown is just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) as a home underdog, including 0-3 against the number this season.
Projection: Baylor -3.0
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Old Dominion +4.5 vs. James Madison
4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
As far as preseason takes are concerned, I whiffed harder on Old Dominion than any other team. Its under 4.5 wins was one of my favorite win totals. While it still technically has life, that was the wrong call.
The Monarchs have been much better than I expected, especially since Colton Joseph took over at quarterback.
Four of their five losses have come by one possession, including an early season eye-opening performance at South Carolina in a four-point defeat. They also have a very impressive road win at Bowling Green.
The offensive line is still really poor, but the scheme under offensive coordinator Kevin Decker more than makes up for those deficiencies up front.
Decker and JMU head coach Bob Chesney have plenty of familiarity with each other from their Patriot League battles between 2019-22, which might actually provide Old Dominion with an edge since the Monarchs will be coming off a bye before a matchup I'm sure they've had circled since losing in heartbreaking fashion last year on the road against a then-undefeated Dukes squad.
This also looks like a good time to fade the Dukes after two blowout wins against two very bad teams in Southern Miss and Georgia State in one of the best situational spots of the season that I can't believe I missed last week.
While the Dukes were coming off of a bye, Georgia State was playing its fourth straight road game. You don't see that too often.
Meanwhile, Old Dominion lost its most recent game at Appalachian State despite finishing with nearly 500 yards of total offense (+98 net) primarily due to a -3 turnover margin.
I think the market perception of JMU is a bit inflated due to a few of those blowout wins this season, but its in-conference results on the road have been very underwhelming with a pair of outright losses as favorites against UL Monroe and Georgia Southern in which it scored 33 combined points.
The Dukes have also benefited from an absurd +18 turnover margin, which leads all of FBS. There's certainly some looming turnover regression on the horizon. In comparison, ODU sits at -2 on the season.
Plus, the Monarchs' run defense is very stout, which is the key to slowing down a JMU offensive attack that doesn't have a consistent enough passing attack to exploit the ODU back end.
While Alonza Barnett's numbers look great on the surface (21 touchdowns and three interceptions), he's really regressed since a hot start, as teams have tape on him and this offense.
Through his first four games, he had 11 Big-Time Throws to just three Turnover-Worthy Plays, but he's put up just a 1:1 ratio (6:6) since through five league games.
The JMU defense definitely has teeth, but it has really benefited from that aforementioned schedule and turnover luck. Plus, I think the best way to attack this unit is to spread it out, which ODU does as much as any team in the country.
For two years in a row, the Monarchs have done nothing but play close games with 17 of their 22 contests decided by one possession. This one should be no different in a matchup between two teams that have a minuscule chance of getting to the Sun Belt title game.
If anything, I'd give the motivation edge to ODU, which needs to win two of its final three games to get back to a bowl.
While the records might indicate a big gap between these two clubs, I don't really see it. Keep in mind Old Dominion has had a significantly more difficult schedule (70th vs. 129th).
Notable Nugget
ODU head coach Ricky Rahne is 22-12 ATS (64.7%) as an underdog, covering by 5.5 points per game.
That includes an impressive 15-6 ATS (71.4%) mark in league play, including 10 outright upsets in 21 tries with an average spread of +8.5.
Projection: Old Dominion +2.5
Pick: Old Dominion +4.5 (Play to +3.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
San Jose State +14 vs. Boise State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
We're going back to the Boise State fade this week. The Broncos have had a super impressive season and remain in the driver's seat for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but I believe they're getting too rich in the market.
Running back Ashton Jeanty is the star of the show, but his efficiency has ticked down a bit overall over the past handful of games. There could be some season-long fatigue, but the offensive line injuries have also played a role.
San Jose State's defense isn't great by any stretch, but the Spartans do a very good job of limiting explosive runs, which is paramount against the nation's leading rusher.
More importantly, San Jose State's offense can keep up against a very pedestrian Boise State defense that I have rated right around the national average.
The Broncos get after opposing quarterbacks at an exceptional rate, but the secondary remains vulnerable (92nd EPA per Pass). Well, that's exactly where San Jose State will attack.
It starts with a tremendous wide receiver tandem on the outside in Justin Lockhart and Nick Nash, the nation's leading receiver by over 100 yards through 11 weeks.
It's also worth noting that Boise State's defensive captain, Alexander Teubner, left last week's game with an injury. The sixth-year starting senior safety is invaluable to everything Boise does on defense.
He was spotted on crutches at the end of last week's game, so his status is definitely in doubt. He would be sorely missed as the green dot who quarterbacks the entire group.
The drop-off to his replacement is pretty significant for a unit that has already been one of the worst in the nation at preventing pass explosives, which is extremely problematic against the Spartans.
Walker Eget has recently taken over at quarterback for SJSU. He has only three touchdown passes and six interceptions, but he has 14 Big-Time Throws to just six Turnover-Worthy plays with a whopping 14.7 ADOT that ranks first among 150 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Eget's aggressiveness should come in handy against this Boise State secondary. Plus, he looks much more comfortable under pressure than original starter Emmett Brown, which is critical against the relentless Boise State pass rush.
For reference, Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen has a sparkling 18:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio but just four Big-Time Throws to 10 Turnover-Worthy Plays with a much lower ADOT of 9.4.
Don't be surprised if Madsen throws a pick or two here.
Lastly, San Jose State has been pretty unlucky on less-predictive late downs on both sides of the ball compared to its very strong early-down data. The Spartans have some potential positive regression coming their way in a number of areas.
Boise is getting everybody's best effort, and this should be no different against a feisty Spartans squad playing in their Super Bowl with an offense more than capable of keeping up.
I do worry about the special teams mismatch, but in Nick Nash we trust.
Notable Nugget
Ken Niumatalolo is 26-13 ATS (66.7%) as a double-digit underdog, covering by over six points per game.
In fairness, most of that success came at his previous stop where Navy profiled as an appetizing large dog due to its style of play, but he's 1-0 ATS in this role at San Jose State with a near upset of Washington State earlier this season.
Projection: San Jose State +11.8
Pick: San Jose State +14 (Play to +13.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Kansas State -8.5 vs. Arizona State
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Credit to Kenny Dillingham for getting the Sun Devils off to a 7-2 start after a disastrous injury-filled 2023 campaign. With that said, ASU has been one of the luckiest teams in the country to date.
Not only do the Sun Devils have a 5-1 record in one-possession games with a +7 season-long turnover margin, but they have gotten quite a few other breaks that don't even show up in the box score.
For starters, they benefited from playing a completely hampered Cam Rising in a game Utah still managed to outgain the Sun Devils but couldn't overcome the turnover differential and red-zone issues.
Also, just look at last week's win over UCF. The Knights finished with a 406-260 net yardage advantage, but missed two field goals, gave up a blocked punt for a touchdown and threw a mind-numbing interception in the final minute of the first half with under a minute to go at their own 1-yard line, which ASU returned for a second non-offensive touchdown.
Despite all of those self-inflicted blunders, UCF still had a chance to win late before ultimately falling, 35-31. The Sun Devils easily could have two or three more losses, in which case this line would probably be sitting above 10, which is where I project it.
Conversely, Kansas State comes into this game with the same record as Arizona State but has done so against a much more difficult schedule and without any of the good fortune.
The Wildcats lost, 38-9, at BYU in a game where they finished with a 367-241 net yardage edge but couldn't overcome giving up 28 points in the blink of an eye with the Cougars gaining just 56 total yards over that span thanks to multiple turnovers and two non-offensive touchdowns.
In Kansas State's most recent loss at Houston, it held the Cougars to just 232 total yards (+95 net) but blew a nine-point fourth-quarter lead after the Cougars scored two late touchdowns with just 65 combined yards across the pair of scoring drives.
The Wildcats also had to play Kansas after the Jayhawks really started to figure things out.
On the surface, this is just a great buy-low spot on the Wildcats, who should come out with their hair on fire after sitting on that Houston loss for two weeks during the bye. I'd also expect a rested and healthy Avery Johnson to use his legs more with their Big 12 title hopes hanging in the balance. Kansas State should have no issues moving the ball against a very mediocre ASU defense.
It's also a prime opportunity to sell high on the lucky Sun Devils, who also don't have an ideal matchup.
I'm assuming Arizona State star running back Cam Skattebo will suit up after missing last week with an injury, but that isn't set in stone. Regardless, even if he's fully healthy, Kansas State can contain the bruising former Sacramento State transfer.
The Wildcats boast one of the nation's top rush defenses, ranking third in Success Rate and 10th in EPA per Rush. Teams that can slow down Arizona State on the ground can choke out its offense.
You have to attack this Kansas State defense through the air, and I just don't trust quarterback Sam Leavitt to do that on a consistent basis in known passing situations, assuming the Wildcats do indeed slow down Skattebo.
Lastly, don't sleep on Kansas State's enormous advantage on special teams.
I'll happily take what I show as a discount with the home team (off of a bye) that I have power-rated as the clear No. 1 in the Big 12 against an overrated ASU bunch.
Notable Nugget
At Kansas State, Chris Klieman is 16-6 ATS (72.7%) as a home favorite, covering by 8.75 points per game.
Projection: Kansas State -10.9
Pick: Kansas State -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
South Alabama +8.5 at Louisiana
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Louisiana has entered the fringe College Football Playoff chat after an impressive 8-1 start. However, I'm not fully sold on the Ragin' Cajuns, who I believe are now at the peak of their market value at this price.
Let's take a closer look at their eight wins — five of which came by 10 points or less.
- Grambling
- Kennesaw State
- Wake Forest
- Southern Miss
- Appalachian State
- Coastal Carolina
- Texas State
- Arkansas State
Even excluding Grambling, per my most recent power ratings, the other seven teams they beat have an average overall rank of 99th with a defensive rank of 109th.
One of their two best wins came over Texas State by six in a game in which the Bobcats finished with a -2 turnover margin and lost their starting quarterback to injury, which hasn't been the only game where Louisiana has benefited from the opposing quarterback it faced at the time.
The other impressive victory came on the road against Wake Forest by three in a dead-even game statistically in which the Demon Deacons lost the turnover battle and missed a game-tying 42-yard field goal as time expired.
They did blow out Arkansas State last week, but their other league wins came by 10 points each against lowly Southern Miss, Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State. The Chants were tied in the fourth quarter, and the Mountaineers trailed by just three in the final frame but finished with a -4 turnover margin after giving the ball away on four of their final five possessions.
While South Alabama's record looks much worse at 4-5, keep in mind it lost at an improved Ohio team by seven without starting quarterback Gio Lopez. Plus, both of its league losses have come by a combined six points.
It lost by two to Arkansas State on a last-second field goal and by four to Georgia Southern after blowing a 30-16 fourth-quarter lead in one of the biggest meltdowns of the year in which Gio Lopez also left the game with a concussion late.
With a few better bounces, the Jaguars are playing this game for first place, and this line probably sits at a touchdown or slightly less.
The Ragin' Cajuns have played good football this season, but they've also been quite fortunate against a bottom-20 schedule.
I believe that's inflating their price tag against a pretty competitive South Alabama squad that should benefit from a much-needed bye week where they hopefully addressed some of the penalty issues that have plagued it all season.
The Jaguars can certainly match scores against a very vulnerable Louisiana defense that ranks 128th in overall Success Rate and 124th in Tackles for Loss.
Their talented backfield should have a field day on the ground in particular.
That should set everything else up for Lopez, who shouldn't have to deal with overwhelming pressure in this particular matchup, which has caused major issues due to a fairly weak offensive line.
These teams are much closer than their records and this line indicates, so give me the road dog to keep this within one possession. I wouldn't be shocked if the Jaguars pulled off the outright upset.
Notable Nugget
Sun Belt home teams in conference play have not fared well (44%) against the number over the past two decades, especially as touchdown-plus favorites: 118-159-6 (42.6%).
Also, Louisiana head coach Michael Desormeaux is 4-7 ATS (36.4%) as a favorite of seven or more points against FBS foes with four outright losses.
Projection: South Alabama +6.7
Pick: South Alabama +8.5 (Play to +7.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Georgia -9 vs. Tennessee
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Georgia, off an embarrassing loss, comes home to take on an overrated Tennessee team that hasn't played a road game since losing at Arkansas.
I'll ride with Kirby Smart in this spot all day, especially after the Dawgs got slotted one spot out of the College Football Playoff on Tuesday.
Although, it's not like Smart needs any more motivation with one more loss likely ending Georgia's season. From a motivational standpoint, Georgia should be the much more desperate team against the one-loss Vols.
Georgia's offense certainly has problems. The offensive line has a few holes and is dealing with some injuries with Kirby's comments this week about the guard situation giving me some pause.
The pass-catching room is also nowhere near the caliber we've become accustomed to seeing in Athens.
Plus, Carson Beck has looked like prime ghost-seeing Sam Darnold way too often this year. That's concerning against a dominant Tennessee defensive line that could create plenty of Havoc.
With that said, I believe Georgia can still get to the mid-to-upper 20s against a vulnerable Tennessee secondary. In my eyes, that should be enough to win by double digits if the Dawgs defense dominates how I expect.
Plus, nobody knows how to slow down the Josh Heupel offense better than Smart and defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. Here are the results since Heupel took over at Tennessee with two of the three meetings coming in Knoxville:
- 2021: 41-17, Georgia
- 2022: 27-13, Georgia
- 2023: 38-10, Georgia
The Vols have been completely shut down and have had much more potent offenses than this current version, which is completely broken. The run game has dipped in efficiency in league play in part due to issues along the offensive line and star back Dylan Sampson even got a bit banged up last week.
Meanwhile, Nico Iamaleava still has a long way to go at quarterback and won't kill opposing defenses with his legs, which has always been an area of weakness for Georgia's stop units under Smart.
For what it's worth, rumors have been floating around that Nico may miss this game with a concussion after leaving last week with an injury. I'm operating under the assumption that he will suit up, but that's certainly worth mentioning with a very poor backup behind him in Gaston Moore, a fifth-year senior walk-on who transferred in from UCF.
The Tennessee wide receiver room has also been a bit of a disappointment overall. It's just not clicking overall and that's a problem against what should be a salty Georgia defense that I expect to duplicate the performance we saw against Texas.
Lastly, keep in mind Georgia has played the most difficult schedule in the entire country and arguably has two of the best wins of any team in the country with a demolition of Texas on the road and a blowout of Clemson in Atlanta.
Its two losses came on the road against a pair of teams projected to be in the CFP field in Ole Miss and Alabama.
Meanwhile, Tennessee's strength of schedule lies outside the top 50. The nonconference ended up being an absolute joke after what we've seen from Oklahoma and NC State.
The Vols' biggest win to date came over Alabama at home with Jalen Milroe clearly playing at less than 100%.
Tennessee also squeaked out a home overtime win over Florida in a game it should've lost. Its other league wins came over lowly Mississippi State and a reeling, injury-ravaged Kentucky team, failing to meet oddsmakers' expectations in either.
Give me Georgia with its back against the wall in a great situational spot between the hedges against an overrated Tennessee team that Kirby knows how to stop dead in its tracks even when it's moving at full speed.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 32-18 ATS (64%) against ranked opponents, covering by just under four points per game, including 13-6 ATS (68.4%) as a non-road favorite of a touchdown or more with a double-digit average cover margin.
Projection: Georgia -11.6
Pick: Georgia -9 (Play to -9.5)
| | | | | | | | | | |
Kansas +3.5 at BYU
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I'm going back to the late-night BYU fade this week and once again backing the Jayhawks, who I will likely look to continue betting the rest of the way.
Fortunately, Utah held on for the cover but blew a double-digit lead to keep this Cougar charade going. It was really an ideal result to set up getting over a field goal with a team I'm looking to ride vs. one I'm looking to fade.
It's even possible the Cougars come out a bit emotionally flat after that exhausting win over their in-state Holy War rival. These are just college kids after all.
This really is a matchup of one of the unluckiest teams in the country in Kansas against one of the luckiest in BYU.
It's pretty remarkable that Kansas comes into this game at 3-6, while BYU sits at 9-0 with a similar strength of schedule (Kansas slightly more difficult), yet I have Kansas power-rated above the Cougars.
That's what happens when one team goes 0-5 in one-possession games, while the other goes 4-0 with a pair of improbable walk-off touchdowns at home against two teams that likely won't even make a bowl in Utah and Oklahoma State.
After a slow start to the season, the Kansas offense has been absolutely rolling since the bye week with a now fully healthy Jalon Daniels, who's playing at an incredible level at the moment.
I'm just not sure how the BYU defense will contain Daniels and the dynamic Kansas backfield.
The Cougars really struggle against mobile quarterbacks, which is obviously less than ideal against the Jayhawks, who rank sixth in EPA per Rush and will face a BYU defense that ranks 106th in that department.
That's the biggest mismatch in this game.
My one concern is Kansas' likely loss of starting left tackle Bryce Cabeldue, who suffered an injury late against Iowa State. While Calvin Clements does have some experience, he's nowhere close to the caliber of the elite Cabeldue. If I had to guess, he's probably out.
Although, it's worth noting that BYU starting right tackle Brayden Keim left last week with an injury late against Utah, so he could be missing. It remains to be seen if the Cougars will get starting center Connor Pay back from injury, but he was at least listed on this week's depth chart.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas defense really struggles against the run, but this is not an elite BYU ground game by any stretch — although it's definitely more dynamic with a healthy LJ Martin.
As a result, the Jayhawks can hold their own on early downs, forcing the erratic Jake Retzlaff into known passing situations against a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
The turnovers will eventually start to hurt Retzlaff, who has 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions despite a 1:1 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio 0f 12:12.
On the season, BYU has a +10 turnover margin, which has been boosted by a 70% fumble recovery rate and Retzlaff's good fortune.
We saw both last week against the Utes on two Retzlaff fumbles that would've likely ended the game but somehow bounced right back into his hands. The Cougars are also an unsustainable 16-for-20 on fourth downs this season.
Lastly, I give Kansas a substantial coaching edge in this particular matchup. The voodoo magic can't last forever — or at least that's what I tell myself. Even if it does, let's just hope it continues by one or two points each week.
Notable Nugget
Against FBS foes, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake has gone just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) as a home favorite of three or more points, including 0-9 over his past nine in this role.
Projection: Kansas +1.5
Pick: Kansas +3.5 or Better
