It was another good week at 9-2 overall despite a horrific beat on San Jose State — although I did get a bit fortunate with an Old Dominion backdoor cover. Regardless, it's onto the next week as always.
After a horrific 10-22 start, I've gone 52-19, which just highlights the week-to-week variance when betting college football.
A few bounces or injuries here or there can always swing a Saturday from good to bad or vice versa. I can't guarantee anything other than the fact that there will be more good and bad weeks, so always bet responsibly.
For Week 13, I have highlighted my nine favorite spots that I had circled for Saturday's slate.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. That's where it all starts. Matchups also matter.
Lines may be from the time of writing earlier in the week, so I'll always log what I bet in the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for those who will read later in the week.
Ultimately, my goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were considering by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football picks, predictions and situational betting spots for Week 13.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 62-41-1 (60.2%)
- Overall: 161-111-2 (59.2%)
Stuckey's College Football Picks for Week 13
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Maryland +7 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College +3.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Virginia +10 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Minnesota +12.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Northwestern +11.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oklahoma State +3.5 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Army +14.5 |
  | 10:30 p.m. | Fresno State -2.5 |
Maryland +7 vs. Iowa
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Maryland is a tough team to crack, but I've fortunately had success this season knowing when to back the Terps, which is surprising since they've owned me in the past.
They have a talented group of skill-position players, including running back Roman Hemby and the dynamic wide receiver duo of Tai Felton and Kaden Prather.
However, the offensive output has been extremely inconsistent on a week-to-week basis in large part due to one of the worst offensive lines at the P4 level with a particularly horrid state at left tackle.
Head coach Mike Locksley also took over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Josh Gattis, but it hasn't led to any noticeable improvement in efficiency.
I'm not a fan of Gattis, but I'd argue things have gotten worse, especially when you look at the production of quarterback Billy Edwards, who is coming off his three worst games of the season with only one Big-Time Throw to four Turnover-Worthy Plays after accumulating a 21:7 ratio over the first half of the season, per PFF.
With that said, I'm not overreacting to that small sample size, which included some very good secondaries. I've generally liked what I've seen from Edwards this season. Plus, this Iowa defense is not the same caliber we're used to seeing under Phil Parker.
Yes, the Hawkeyes are still very good defensively, but they just aren't the nationally elite group we've become accustomed to. The defensive line isn't great, and they're allowing more explosive plays than usual. In fact, they've allowed more through 10 games than they did in 14 last year.
Despite all of the returning experience, they just haven't been able to adequately replace Logan Lee, Joe Evans and Cooper DeJean — all three of whom now sit on NFL rosters.
The Iowa defense has also been particularly leaky on the road, even allowing the anemic UCLA rushing attack to gash it in its most recent game.
With all of that said, this is more about making this Iowa offense beat me on the road by more than a touchdown.
The Maryland secondary is horrid, and it continues to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup on the back end, but that won't really hurt it here against Iowa's paltry passing attack.
In order to slow down Iowa's offense, you have to contain running back Kaleb Johnson, who's essentially Iowa's entire offense.
Well, Maryland's biggest strength by a country mile on defense is slowing down opposing ground games, ranking in the top 25 nationally in EPA per Rush.
The Terps do a particularly stellar job limiting rush explosives, which is key against Johnson. And while they allow far too many pass explosives, that element of Iowa's offense is almost nonexistent.
Plus, we don't even know who will suit up under center for Iowa. Brendan Sullivan had recently taken over Cade McNamara, which I actually thought was a slight upgrade, but he's now lost for the season with an injury.
Additionally, McNamara is also dealing with an injury, which could mean a first career start for Jackson Stratton, who was recently practicing as a scout team linebacker.
And while I don't think too highly of McNamara, that would obviously be a clear downgrade for the walk-on who transferred in over the summer from Colorado State, where he went 4-of-17 for 78 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in limited action. Just ask yourself why Iowa moved him to linebacker in the first place.
For what it's worth, head coach Kirk Ferentz said the status of McNamara — who is listed as QB1 on the depth chart — for Saturday is "cloudy," and he wouldn't have started if the game were played earlier this week.
It's not the best scheduling spot with Iowa coming off of a bye, but I trust Maryland will try to keep its bowl hopes alive in its home finale after an embarrassing home loss against Rutgers. Give me the Terps and the points.
Notable Nugget
Against P4 programs, Kirk Ferentz is just 23-37-3 ATS (38.3%) as a touchdown-plus favorite, including 28-42-3 (40%) when favored by six-plus points.
Projection: Maryland +4.0
Pick: Maryland +7 (Play to +6)
Boston College +3.5 vs. North Carolina
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
I have to give a lot of credit to Mack Brown for leading this UNC team to an amazing in-season turnaround after many left him and this team dead following an embarrassing 70-50 home loss to JMU that started a string of four consecutive losses.
Not only did they lose four straight, but a few of those came in true gut-wrenching fashion, including games against Georgia Tech and Duke.
However, following a much-needed bye week, UNC rallied and rattled off three consecutive wins to clinch a bowl appearance.
So, what has changed?
The Heels have cleaned up some of the tackling and communication issues on defense. More importantly, Kaimon Rucker returned from injury and has been an absolute menace during UNC's three-game winning streak in which he piled up a whopping 18 pressures and six sacks.
The offense hasn't changed at all. It still feeds Omarian Hampton, who is one of the best backs in the country and would be getting much more national attention if not for Ashton Jeanty's historic season.
The passing attack remains a bit limited, although they don't ask Jacolby Criswell to do much. They also lost starting tight end Bryson Nesbit to a season-ending injury.
While I do applaud Brown and the Heels for their in-season turnaround, their three most recent victories came against an injury-ravaged Virginia team, Wake Forest and the corpse of Florida State. Not exactly a murderer's row of competition.
They will get a much stiffer test against a Boston College team that I expect to come out fired up at home with a chance to clinch its season-long goal of reaching bowl eligibility under first-year coach Bill O'Brien, who has done a tremendous job to date.
From a matchup perspective, Boston College has one of the more underrated run defenses in the country, ranking in the top 20 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Eagles could also possibly get their leader in the middle back in linebacker Kam Arnold. They can do enough to contain Hampton, which cuts the head of the snake off of the UNC offense.
The weakness of this BC defense by far lies in the secondary, especially given some of the injuries it has dealt with.
Already without the injured Amari Jackson, O'Brien stated Max Tucker and Bryquice Brown are questionable, which would put more on true freshman Ashton McShane's plate. However, I have liked what I've seen from McShane so far.
Plus, it's not like UNC will light teams up through the air. The Heels rank 90th in Passing Success Rate, and while Criswell has an impressive 12:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he's thrown only seven Big-Time Throws to 11 Turnover-Worthy Plays.
There are some turnovers coming, especially if he can't just make easy downfield passes off of play-action.
This is a good matchup for the BC defense, assuming Hampton just doesn't put on a cape, which he's certainly capable of doing. The only game this season where BC wasn't competitive came at Virginia Tech when Hokies back Bhayshul Tuten did just that with 266 rushing yards.
On the other side of the ball, BC has recently turned to Grayson James at quarterback after Thomas Castellanos left the program after getting benched in the Eagles' win over Syracuse two weeks ago.
While James will put the ball in harm's way at times, I actually think it's an upgrade to this specific offense, as James is a better fit for this particular scheme.
BC has recently found its offensive identity and ideal running back rotation that spearheads a power-rushing attack behind a very strong offensive line that ultimately sets up some play-action shots downfield for James, who's more capable than Castellanos in that department.
That formula should work against a UNC defense that ranks 97th in EPA per Rush and can get lost in the sauce on the back end. BC should have success using some misdirection in this particular matchup as well.
Plus, how motivated will UNC be for a windy noon kick in Chestnut Hill? The bye potentially squashed its momentum, and it has already clinched a bowl.
Give me the desperate Eagles, who can win this game in the trenches at home.
Notable Nugget
During his time in Chapel Hill, Mack Brown is just 5-11 ATS (31.3%) as a road favorite in league play, failing to cover by nearly four points per game.
Projection: Boston College +1.5
Pick: Boston College +3.5 (Play to +3)
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Virginia +10 vs. SMU
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
SMU has had a remarkable turnaround to its season after some early-season struggles that included a near-loss to Nevada in Week 0 followed by a home loss to BYU.
Part of the improvement coincided with a permanent change at quarterback, transitioning from a rotation of Preston Stone and Kevin Jennings to exclusively Jennings.
The Mustangs also boast real P4-level talent on the defense, led by Elijah Roberts, who should return after missing last week's game with an injury.
With that said, I believe SMU is currently one of the most overvalued teams in the betting market.
The Mustangs have benefited from an extremely favorable ACC schedule that has also been assisted by other ancillary factors. Let's just take a look at who they have beat since they turned things around following their bye week:
- TCU by 24 (outgained by 105 yards; +4 turnover margin)
- Florida State
- Louisville (coin-flip)
- Stanford (freshman making first career start at QB)
- Duke (in overtime)
- Pitt
- Boston College
Color me not impressed, especially considering some of the good fortune they've enjoyed in terms of quarterbacks faced.
And while they beat Duke in overtime despite a -6 turnover margin, the Mustangs were +8 in the other six contests. Plus, those seven opponents went just 11-of-25 on fourth-down attempts.
All I'm saying is they've been a bit fortunate in a variety of ways against an already soft schedule.
Plus, SMU is far from perfect. Brashard Smith is a very talented running back, but the ground game isn't overly efficient, primarily due to an offensive line that struggles in run blocking.
It also lost its best deep threat to a season-ending injury in tight end RJ Maryland, while the wide receiver room doesn't blow you away with talent.
Defensively, SMU is as stingy as it gets when it comes to stopping the run, but the cornerback room can be attacked a bit, and the secondary as a whole allows too many explosive plays through the air.
Can Virginia take advantage? Potentially. A lot of it will come down to which quarterback is under center and how they perform.
Tony Muskett gives UVA more stability, but Anthony Colandrea brings more upside (and more risk) to the table. You want to attack this SMU secondary deep, so I'd roll with Colandrea, who has been the starter of late.
However, he did get pulled in the second half last week after a disastrous performance against Notre Dame. His intermediary and deep-ball efficiency has also fallen off a cliff recently.
Head coach Tony Elliott stated both have split first-team reps this week. I'd expect Colandrea to get the start but with a shorter leash if he continues making mistakes without providing the splash plays downfield.
I do have Virginia rated higher than the market. I didn't put too much stock into its blowout loss to UNC due to the dire injury situation along the offensive line at the time, which completely crumbled the offense.
Virginia has also dealt with key defensive injuries and misses wide receiver Trell Harris alongside Malachi Fields. Even last week against Notre Dame, five first-half turnovers led to all 28 of the Irish's first-half points.
If you listen to our "Big Bets of Campus" podcast, I've been saying for a month that SMU is going to lose in Charlottesville, so I'm sticking to my guns.
I do have concerns about the residual fallout from a very physical battle in South Bend. Starting safety Corey Thomas Jr. won't play, and others definitely got beat up. Interestingly enough, teams are 0-8 ATS the week after playing ND in 2024.
Still, at +10, I see enough value to pull the trigger on the Hoos, who will try to play spoiler while keeping their postseason hopes alive on Senior Day in their home finale.
All of the pressure is on an SMU squad that I believe has reached the very peak of its market rating.
Notable Nugget
Virginia head coach Tony Elliott is 13-3 ATS (81.3%) as an underdog in ACC play, including a perfect 8-0 when catching a touchdown or more.
Projection: Virginia +7.4
Pick: Virginia +10 (Play to +9.5)
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Minnesota +12.5 vs. Penn State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I've had this spot circled since Minnesota lost to Rutgers prior to its bye week.
I really like this Minnesota staff, especially defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who has his unit playing at a top-15 level nationally.
I expect a pristine game plan from the Gophers on both sides of the ball against a Penn State team that comes in a bit overvalued in the market for its second straight road game after back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (ideal matchup and spot) and lowly Purdue.
Defensively, Minnesota has enough horses up front to at least compete with Penn State's vaunted rushing attack.
I also believe it can keep its extremely underrated cornerbacks on islands against Penn State's underwhelming wide receiver room and dedicate more resources to slowing down Tyler Warren.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has a completely different-looking offense this season with New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, who has continued to improve with each passing week.
The Gophers are now extremely pass-heavy, ranking 113th in Rush Rate — just one season after ranking 13th in that category, going from 60% rush to 45%.
However, the passing attack works as almost an extension of the running game with a plethora of short-to-medium quick passes.
I think that's the best way to attack a Penn State defense that you simply can't run on. A few other opponents have had success doing just that against the Nittany Lions this season because the relative weakness of this very good stop unit is in coverage.
Brosmer also gets to work behind a plus offensive line that could get Tyler Cooper back out of the bye, which will enable the Gophers to go back to their original starting five after having to shift a few guys around the past two games.
That would certainly be helpful against Penn State's pass rush.
And again — a theme I've hammered home in this piece all season long — are we sure Penn State is as elite as some think? Tell me its most impressive win across a schedule that hasn't been overly difficult.
Plus, besides lowly Purdue, which I now have power-rated outside the top 100, Penn State's other two road league results weren't overly impressive.
It needed to storm back late from a two-touchdown deficit to beat USC in overtime (which has aged worse) and needed a pick-six to flip a close game in Madison against Wisconsin.
This offense still really lacks explosiveness, making it much more difficult to build big margins against competent defenses. And Minnesota certainly has a more-than-competent defense.
In a battle of two elite defenses and slow-paced offenses where points could come at a premium without many explosive plays, I'll take the home pup coming off of its bye week with a few matchups I like on both sides of the ball.
I actually think the Gophers will have a decent shot at pulling off this outright upset, assuming Brosmer can take care of the ball, which he's done for the most part this season.
Notable Nugget
PJ Fleck is 11-5 ATS (68.8%) when his team has 10 or more days between games, and that only includes regular-season contests. Keep in mind Fleck has also won all five bowls games he has appeared in with the Gophers.
Projection: Minnesota +10.1
Pick: Minnesota +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
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Kansas +3 vs. Colorado
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I've been all in on the Kansas bandwagon for weeks now, and I'm not hopping off now. This is more of a numbers play since I have these two teams power-rated very close to each other.
Both should obviously have plenty of motivation.
Colorado now controls its own destiny for a spot in the Big 12 playoff (and subsequently the College Football Playoff), while Kansas is looking to make an improbable run to bowl eligibility after starting out 1-5 due to the worst close-game luck in the country.
This is also a decent matchup for the Jayhawks.
On defense, they really struggle against opposing rush attacks, ranking in the bottom 20 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. However, that shouldn't hurt them too much against a pass-happy Colorado team that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush. In fact, only six teams have a higher pass rate than the Buffaloes in 2024.
Colorado's overwhelming strength lies with quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a bevy of explosive wide receiver options on the outside.
Well, that plays right into the teeth of the Kansas defense, which features the outstanding cornerback duo of Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant, who have combined for nine interceptions on the season while allowing only four total touchdowns.
Now, will Sanders still make plays through the air in this game? Of course. Colorado's offense is too good not to. Plus, Kansas does have some holes at safety, although Marvin Grant has really started to find his stride over the past month in the slot.
Regardless, Colorado will hit some explosives as it seemingly does every week, especially since Kansas doesn't generate consistent pressure.
But, at the bare minimum, having Dotson and Bryant certainly helps match up with this scary Colorado wide receiver corps.
Even if Colorado is locked in offensively from start to finish, there's no reason why Kansas can't match scores. Since coming out of the bye week, the Jayhawks have had one of the nation's top offenses.
A now 100% healthy Jalon Daniels has cut out the mistakes and has full control of a group that can beat opponents on the ground or through the air. His legs, in particular, should give this Colorado defense fits.
The bottom line is Kansas' offensive ceiling can match Colorado's ceiling if this turns into a shootout. In that case, I'd be happy to have the field goal with the home team (although with a diminished home-field advantage) and better coach/special teams.
Kansas is also the more disciplined team in terms of penalty yards per game and is better overall at finishing drives with touchdowns since it has a much more balanced attack. All of those factors could swing what should be a close game in its favor.
And while I agree this Colorado defense and offensive line have improved, who has it played?
Four of its six league wins have come against the seven Big 12 teams that are currently below .500 in conference play. The other two came against Baylor (in overtime at home thanks to a Hail Mary before the Bears really started clicking) and Texas Tech.
Those six teams have a combined 16-26 (38.1%) league record. And if you include the home loss to Kansas State, that only improves to 20-29 (40.8%).
The Buffs also benefited from the timing of when they played a number of those teams in addition to the aforementioned Baylor game:
- Off a bye against a Texas Tech team dealing with injuries and coming off an upset over Iowa State
- UCF before the Knights made the necessary QB change
- Utah the week after the Utes lost a heartbreaker to BYU and were decimated by injuries
Even Arizona had recently been crushed by injuries ahead of its matchup. Meanwhile, Kansas has gone 2-1 against three of the top four teams in the league and nearly swept all three. Among those group of teams under .500, Kansas has only played one. Its Big 12 opponents have a combined 31-18 (63.3%) record in Big 12 play.
Colorado won the scheduling lottery, while Kansas certainly did not. Give me Rock Chalk again.
Notable Nugget
For his career, Lance Leipold is 17-7-1 ATS (70.8%) as a home underdog, covering by over six points per game.
Projection: Kansas -0.4
Pick: Kansas +3 (Play to +2.5)
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Northwestern +11.5 at Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
From a scheduling perspective, this isn't the most ideal situation for Northwestern. While the Wildcats had to play Ohio State last weekend at Wrigley Field, Michigan enjoyed a bye.
However, I'm not sure how motivated Michigan will be to get to a meaningless bowl game just one year removed from winning a national title.
Its Super Bowl is next week against Ohio State, so I wouldn't be surprised if it spent a good portion of the bye week preparing for "The Game."
Conversely, I do believe getting to a bowl game is super important for Northwestern, which needs to beat Michigan and Illinois to finish 6-6.
Plus, are we sure Michigan can beat anybody by more than 10? The 5-5 Wolverines have only done it once — in their season-opener against Fresno State in a game they only led 16-10 midway through the fourth quarter.
This is still an extremely limited offense that will struggle to build margin against anybody.
Regardless of who has been under center this season, the Wolverines have obviously still leaned into their run game.
Well, that likely won't work well against Northwestern, which features a nationally elite run-stopping unit that ranks in the top 20 in both EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
Even without two key defenders last week against Ohio State, I thought the Wildcats fared well. Keep in mind they had three failed red-zone trips and had a punt blocked in a 7-7 game late in the first half that led to a one-yard Buckeyes touchdown drive.
That defense should be closer to full strength this week with the return of top cornerback Theran Johnson, who leads the Big Ten in passes defensed.
The Cats could also get a boost to their run defense with the return of linebacker Xander Mueller, who David Braun sounded optimistic about.
Overall, the Wildcats have a top-25 FBS defense that can keep them in this game. Their run defense is elite, and they do as good of a job as any team in the country at limiting explosive plays.
The best way to attack the Wildcats is to efficiently move the ball through the air, as they rank outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate. Well, Michigan is simply incapable of doing that on a consistent basis with an offense that also ranks outside the top 100 in that same department offensively.
The Northwestern cornerbacks can also match up with a very underwhelming wide receiver room, allowing for more resources than usual to be dedicated to containing the Michigan running backs and tight end Colston Loveland.
Now, my main concern is how Northwestern will score. That's a very fair question, and I've thought about it way too often this week. It's not going to be easy, especially since they likely won't be able to get anything on the ground.
At least quarterback Jack Lausch has looked better of late after a midseason mini-slump.
Plus, Northwestern saw the return of wide receiver Bryce Kirtz to the lineup last week when he had seven catches for 92 yards against Ohio State. He's absolutely critical to Northwestern's offense and should make a few key plays on third downs to keep drives alive.
With that said, it's not going to be easy for Northwestern to score points, but even 7-10 might get the job done in this particular matchup between two very slow-paced teams.
Ultimately, I had to take the 11.5 here in a game with a super low total. Keep in mind there could be very impactful weather as well, which makes the double-digit underdog even more intriguing in a game where points should come at a premium.
Northwestern will likely also play this similar to the Ohio State game where it intelligently tried to shorten the game at all costs. As long as the Cats can avoid key turnovers, I like them to keep this close.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Northwestern has been one of the most profitable road underdogs with an ATS record of 43-29 (59.7%).
Also, road conference underdogs with low totals (less than 45) have gone 374-294-18 (56%) ATS over that span, including 159-113-7 (58.5%) when catching double digits.
Projection: Northwestern +9.8
Pick: Northwestern +11.5 (Play to +10.5)
Oklahoma State +3.5 vs. Texas Tech
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Who wants to back the corpse of Oklahoma State, which will amazingly play its first meaningless game (zero postseason chance) under Mike Gundy since 2005? I might be on an island with this one.
I've avoided the Pokes like the plague all season with one exception, which came after their first bye week when they got an easy cover at BYU in a game they should have won outright.
Well, I'm going back to the well following their second bye week; Gundy has gone 28-18 ATS (60.9%) with extra time to prepare.
I think this extremely veteran team will actually show up with a prideful effort in their final home game, trying to avoid a winless Big 12 campaign.
Plus, I'm not sure where Texas Tech is at mentally. The Red Raiders have already clinched bowl eligibility and were essentially eliminated from Big 12 contention in their most recent game in a loss at home vs. Colorado prior to their own second bye week.
For what it's worth, the Red Raiders got blasted by 24 at home after their first bye. Plus, they're also still pretty beat up on both sides of the ball. I could see them coming out extremely flat.
It's possible that running back Tahj Brooks just runs wild against a porous Pokes run defense that has been decimated by injuries.
However, even if that's the case, there's no reason why Oklahoma State can't keep up against a terrible Texas Tech defense I have rated in the same neighborhood as Oklahoma State's. This could easily turn into a shootout.
It was difficult to hit the submit button on this Oklahoma State team, but I have a gut feeling it shows up — and I project this under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Texas Tech head coach Joey McGuire is 0-3 ATS as the road favorite of three-plus points, failing to cover by an average of 15 points per game. The Red Raiders lost all three of those games outright.
Projection: Oklahoma State +2.8
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5 or Better
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Army +14.5 at Notre Dame
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I’m getting a service academy in what should be a game with an extremely limited number of possessions between two slow teams over the key number of 14, which is critical in games involving service academies.
Army has played a laughable strength of schedule, which does make the Black Knights tough to rate. However, who has Notre Dame played since losing to NIU — a quasi-MAC version of Army? Absolutely nobody.
And yet, I’ve seen cracks in its run defense.
Army can sustain a few long drives here with what should be a healthier Bryson Daily coming out of the bye. And that’s all it might take against a Notre Dame defense that might be without one of its stalwarts along the defensive line.
Yes, Notre Dame rolled Navy, but the Mids turned it over six times, which let ND run away and hide, taking the Midshipmen out of their game plan with a hurt QB.
Now, I’m getting over two touchdowns (which Navy didn’t get) with a more true triple option team that I have power-rated better than Navy.
Give me the points.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, service academies catching over two touchdowns have gone 44-26-2 ATS (62.9%), covering by 5 points per game.
Projection: Army +13.5
Pick: Army +14.5 or Better
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Fresno State -2.5 vs. Colorado State
10:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Colorado State controls its own destiny for a trip to the Mountain West Championship game. Not many expected the Rams to be in this position with a still unblemished conference record.
You have to give a ton of credit to head coach Jay Norvell, who has done a tremendous job in his third season in Fort Collins.
He has completely transformed the offense from one of the most pass-heavy in the country to one of the least (top-five to bottom 20), relying on a strong rushing attack behind a very underrated offensive line — especially since losing star wide receiver Tory Horton to a season-ending injury in their first conference game.
With that said, Colorado State certainly has benefited from an extremely favorable league schedule that doesn't include Boise or UNLV after only winning two nonconference games against Northern Colorado and UTEP.
Let's take a look at its Mountain West wins:
- vs. San Jose State by seven (even game statistically)
- at Air Force by eight (Falcons have since benched their QB)
- vs. New Mexico by 11 (Lobos had 453-334 net yardage edge)
- at Nevada by 17 (Pack had 441-327 net yardage edge)
- vs. Wyoming by 14 (well-deserved dominant victory)
That's as easy as it gets. And despite outgaining Wyoming by over 200 yards last week, the Rams only hold a +41 total net yardage advantage in league play.
There have definitely been some misleading final scores in part due to a +7 turnover margin, favorable matchups against porous run defenses and key opposing injuries.
Well, now the opposite holds true for Colorado State, which got very beat up last week against Wyoming.
In their new offensive identity, the Rams have relied on the excellent running back tandem of Avery Morrow and Justin Marshall. Well, both left last Friday with injuries, so their health remains a major question this weekend.
Consequently, the Rams might have to be much more reliant on freshman Jalen Dupree.
On the other side of the ball, top cornerback Dom Jones also went to the locker room with an injury. He would be a major loss for a secondary that doesn't have great talent or depth on the perimeter.
The Rams do boast a strong safety duo in Jack Howell and Henry Blackburn, but Howell has missed the past two games with a foot injury. And once again, they will rely on a freshman to help fill the void if he can't go again.
It obviously didn't hurt them against Wyoming's anemic passing attack — one that was also missing its only reliable weapon and finished with seven drops — but it certainly will against Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene, who has really started to pick it up over his past three games.
It's also worth noting Fresno State recently saw the return of left tackle Jacob Spomer two games ago. When he went down with an injury late last season, the offense completely cratered, and that position had been a glaring weakness until he came back.
The offensive line is now in much better shape.
The Bulldogs should get Dean Clark back at safety, although they could be without a key receiver and starting cornerback.
However, they still have enough juice on the outside to take advantage of this potentially shorthanded Colorado State secondary, and the Rams don't really have elite wide receiver talent sans Horton.
From a matchup perspective, Fresno State can't run the ball a lick (outside the top 120 in EPA and Success Rate), which neuters Colorado State's primary defensive strength.
The Rams do have a legit run defense but can be exploited through the air, ranking outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate allowed. Fortunately for Fresno, that's exactly where it wants to attack, as it ranks 106th in rush rate.
The Fresno run defense is definitely more vulnerable than its secondary, but it has enough capable bodies to contain Colorado State in this one.
Situationally, this is a big game for Fresno State's bowl hopes, as the Bulldogs are sitting on five wins with a road trip to UCLA on deck. I expect max effort in their final home game out of the bye after getting upset by Air Force.
Plus, getting to play spoiler should provide them with some extra mojo against a Colorado State team that doesn't have much experience in this pressure-filled role.
Plus, while Fresno's record doesn't look great at 5-5, it has three one-possession losses with two coming in heartbreaking fashion against Hawaii (game-winning touchdown in final seconds to win by one) and Washington State (pick-six while trailing in fourth quarter flipped game).
Its other two losses came on the road against UNLV when it was blindsided by a quarterback change and Michigan in Week 1 in a game it trailed by only six late in the fourth quarter before another pick-six flipped the script.
On the surface, I have Fresno power-rated higher than Colorado State. For what it's worth, with a slightly tougher overall schedule, the Bulldogs are a net 0.3 yards per play better than the Rams against FBS foes excluding garbage time, ranking 37th nationally in that department.
Plus, I believe this is a favorable matchup and great buy-low/sell-high spot with some potential key absences for Colorado State.
Notable Nugget
Historically, Fresno State has not thrived as a home favorite in league play. Since 2005, the Bulldogs have gone just 20-35-1 ATS (36.4%) in this role.
Projection: Fresno State -3.5
Pick: Fresno State -2.5 (Play to -3)
