College Football Picks, Predictions: Stuckey’s Week 14 Bets for Texas A&M vs. Texas, Wisconsin vs. Minnesota, More

The run came to an end last Saturday with a 4-5 day — which was pretty deserved outside of the swing game in Oklahoma State bouncing the wrong way.

Regardless, it's onto the next week as always.

Let's finish strong with the final college football spots article of the 2024 season (Yes, I will still have write-ups for conference championship weekend, bowls, and the College Football Playoff).

After a horrific 10-22 (31.2%) start, I've gone 56-24 ATS (70%), which just highlights the week-to-week variance when betting college football. Embrace the ups and downs.

A few bounces or injuries here or there can always swing a Saturday from good to bad or vice versa. I can't guarantee anything other than the fact that there will be more good and bad weeks, so always bet responsibly.

For Week 14, I have highlighted my 11 favorite spots that I had circled for this week's slate.

Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. That's where it all starts. Matchups also matter.

Lines may be from the time of writing earlier in the week, but I always log what I bet in the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for those who will read later in the week.

Ultimately, my goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were considering by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.

With that said, let's take a look at my top college football picks, predictions and situational betting spots for Week 14 with three on Friday and eight on Saturday.

• 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
• 2024: 66-46-1 (58.9%)
• Overall: 165-116-2 (58.7%)

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	Friday, 12 p.m.	Oklahoma State +17
	Friday, 12 p.m.	Wisconsin -1.5
	Friday, 12 p.m.	Under 43.5
	Saturday, 12 p.m.	Vanderbilt +11.5
	Saturday, 12 p.m.	Northwestern +7.5
	Saturday, 12 p.m.	Louisiana-Monroe +10
	Saturday, 12 p.m.	UTSA +7.5
	Saturday, 3:30 p.m.	USC +7.5
	Saturday, 3:30 p.m.	Michigan State 1H ML -115
	Saturday, 7 p.m.	LSU -6
	Saturday, 7:30 p.m.	Texas A&M +6

Oklahoma State +17 at Colorado

Friday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

It hurt to hit submit on this one after Oklahoma State didn't get to the window last week in a game it finished with a post-game win expectancy north of 90%, but I just can't get to this number.

The Pokes showed up out of the bye, which was a promising sign for a team that has yet to win a Big 12 game.

However, they simply couldn't overcome a missed field goal off the post, failed surprise onside kick, long bomb touchdown to end the first half, and a late Texas Tech defensive touchdown in a wild 56-48 loss.

The Red Raiders also finished 14-of-22 on third downs.

The question is whether or not they get off the mat and show up again here in their regular-season finale. I think the answer is yes for a senior-laden squad playing for a chance to spoil a team like Colorado's outside Big 12 title hopes.

Although, it's certainly a leap of faith, as is the case in many games when judging motivation on the final weekend of the regular season.

Plus, the Buffaloes could come out a bit flat after that devastating loss at Kansas last week, which took them out of the driver's seat for their shot at a College Football Playoff berth. We've seen that a number of times already this season.

Colorado's aerial assault is devastatingly good, but at least it doesn't run the ball efficiently, which should provide a boost to an Oklahoma State defense that's an absolute sieve against opposing ground games.

Now, the Pokes don't excel in coverage either, so Colorado should get its fair share of points with relative ease. However, I do think Oklahoma State can also score enough to stay within this number.

Freshman quarterback Maealiuaki Smith looked fantastic in his first career start, throwing for over 300 yards, which opened up things for running back Ollie Gordon II, who rushed for a season-high 156 yards with three touchdowns.

We haven't seen the Oklahoma State offense look that dynamite (and balanced) since it nearly pulled off an upset win at BYU before both Gordon and the also-mobile Garret Rangel suffered injuries.

Gordon should once again have success on the ground against a vulnerable Colorado run defense and its wide gaps, especially if the Buffaloes have to show more respect for a revamped passing attack.

I'm sure Colorado will be looking to spam-feed Travis Hunter to lock up his Heisman campaign, which might not be the most efficient form of offense. Plus, the Buffs are a bit beat up along the offensive line.

We may also have to dodge a late score if head coach Deion Sanders keeps his foot on the pedal with the game wrapped up, as he's done a few times in the past.

But I'm holding my nose and backing the Pokes on the road in this noon time slot, which I believe helps them a bit against a potentially flat Colorado bunch that has played the softest league schedule of any Big 12 team.

Projection: Oklahoma State +13.6

Pick: Oklahoma State +17 (Play to +16)

Wisconsin -1.5 vs. Minnesota

Friday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS

I don't show the most value on this from a point-spread perspective, but I love the situational spot for a Wisconsin team that has played one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Already locked into a bowl, Minnesota may come out a bit flat after an all-out effort in an extremely physical affair against Penn State where it fell just short.

Meanwhile, Wisconsin should come out with plenty of motivation to get to bowl eligibility in this battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe (formerly the Slab of Bacon Trophy).

Not all five-win teams are created equal in this spot, as some may not even care to continue their season, but I've heard positive things from those close to the program at least.

It's also a good spot to buy low on Wisconsin after it got waxed at Nebraska last weekend.

Part of that had to do with the absence of star safety Hunter Wohler, whose presence is paramount on that defense. He should return this week, which is just massive for the Badgers stop unit.

With Wohler back, Wisconsin can contain this pass-happy Minnesota offense that I don't think can fully exploit Wisconsin's run-defense issues.

Meanwhile, I think Wisconsin can have some success on the ground to get its offense going in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Wisconsin could also get wide receiver Will Pauling back and we'll see on linebacker Jake Chaney, who left last week with an injury.

Projection: Wisconsin -3

Pick: Wisconsin -1.5 (Play to -2.5)

Note: I prefer the cheapest moneyline you can find, which is the route I took.

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Bowling Green vs. Miami (OH) Under 43.5

Friday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

I had this under circled for weeks even before last week's injury to Bowling Green's star tight end Harold Fannin Jr. — who leads not just tight ends but all players in receiving yards.

He's one of the most impactful non-quarterbacks to a point spread in the entire country.

Without Fannin, I'm not sure how Bowling Green consistently moves the ball.

The offensive line remains an issue, and it doesn't have a consistent enough passing attack on the outside to exploit Miami's lack of depth at cornerback.

Plus, this RedHawks defense has found its stride, allowing just 11 points per game over their past four contests.

And in the Scot Loeffler era, Chuck Martin's defenses have had the upper hand, holding the Falcons to just 27 total points combined in four meetings, including seven or fewer in three of the four meetings.

I also don't see Miami (OH) having sustained success on offense, either. Keyon Mozee has run the ball well during league play, but he has done so against a laughable schedule of opposing run defenses.

This still isn't an overly efficient or explosive rushing attack (outside the top-90 in both EPA and Success Rate), which is how you want to attack a Bowling Green defense (100th in EPA per Rush) that can really get after opposing quarterbacks and cover on the back end, ranking in the top 10 nationally in both EPA and Success Rate against the pass.

With a trip to the MAC title game on the line between these two clubs that come in 6-1 in league play, I expect both to play pretty conservatively on offense and rely on their defenses, especially with a current forecast that calls for impactful winds.

Lastly, both teams play at a very slow pace, so the clock should move swiftly throughout. And if Fannin is out, I like this even more.

Projection: 38.5

Pick: Under 43.5 (Play to Under 41)

Vanderbilt +11.5 vs. Tennessee

Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

There was no chance I was going to pass up the potential last chance to bet Diego Pavia as a double-digit underdog. I made the mistake of fading him as one last year against Auburn but have backed him each time this season in this role.

Just take a look at his past results:

• +25.5 at Liberty (W by 35)
• +25.5 at Auburn (W by 21)
• +12.5 at Kentucky (W by 7)
• +23.5 vs Alabama (W by 5)
• +17.5 at Missouri (L by 3)
• +13 vs. Virginia Tech (W by 7)
• +17.5 vs. Texas (L by 3)

That's a perfect 7-0 ATS, covering by a whopping 25 points per game. Even more impressive, his teams have gone 5-2 SU (with six of the seven opponents being in the SEC) with the only two losses coming by a field goal each.

It's not just Pavia though.

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Vanderbilt profiles as a very intriguing double-digit underdog since they profile as a quasi-service academy that wants to shorten the game at all costs. With limited possessions, it becomes much harder for sizable favorites to build and maintain margin.

Additionally, in this specific spot, Vanderbilt — which is already bowl-eligible — is playing with house money against its bitter rival. It has a chance to potentially vanquish Tennessee's College Football Playoff hopes. What does that mean?

Well, all of the pressure is on the Vols, while Vandy can play completely loose, so I'd expect plenty of wrinkles and a few trick plays from an offense that loves to use misdirection and gadgets that could work against a vulnerable Vols coverage unit that should give up a few shot plays in this particular matchup.

Lastly, I'm still not fully sold on this Tennessee team that has lost both of its SEC road games against Arkansas and Georgia, scoring 31 total points in the process. The offensive line still has holes, and Nico Iamaleava still isn't all the way there yet.

Keep in mind Tennessee, which also should've lost at home to Florida, has only exceeded oddsmakers' expectations once in league play in a home win over Alabama in which Jalen Milroe clearly wasn't at 100%.

Can the Vandy cornerbacks hold up? That's my biggest concern, but I'll pay to find out.

Projection: Vanderbilt +8.9

Pick: Vanderbilt +11.5 (Play to +10.5)

Northwestern +7.5 vs. Illinois

Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network

Back to the well with Northwestern for a third straight week. It worked out well two weeks ago against Ohio State but not so much last Saturday against Michigan in one of the worst bets I've ever placed in my life.

The Wildcats were utterly dominated from start to finish by the Wolverines.

They simply couldn't block Michigan up front nor stop the run, but neither of those issues should be a concern this week against an Illinois team that has a very poor defensive front and really struggles on the ground offensively.

As a result of that blowout loss at Michigan, I think the market has adjusted too much, especially this late in the season.

Keep in mind, Northwestern closed as a 10.5-point underdog in the Big House just a few days ago. Now, it's catching only a field goal less in Wrigley Field against an Illinois squad that closed as a 5.5-point underdog at home against Michigan.

And while this is a neutral-site game, I do give a slight bump to Northwestern for home-field advantage since it has already played a game at Wrigley Field this season and barely has any travel to deal with.

Lastly, I have no issues fading the Illini, who have been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country.

They stole a win on a last-second bomb last week at Rutgers in large part due to Greg Schiano's incompetence. They also got very fortunate earlier this season against a Kansas team that had yet to find its footing and had a pair of overtime victories over Nebraska and Purdue.

If we use second-order wins as the barometer for luck, here's where Illinois stacks up nationally:

• Arkansas State: +3.8 (7 wins vs. 3.2)
• Texas Tech: +3.0 (7 wins vs. 4.0)
• Georgia Southern: +2.0 (7 wins vs. 5.0)
• Illinois: +1.7 (8 wins vs 6.3)
• West Virginia: +1.7 (6 wins vs. 4.3)

Northwestern getting obliterated by Michigan and Illinois stealing a win at Rutgers likely got us over a touchdown here in a game I project closer to six, so I'll happily take the hook with Northwestern in its final game of the season in the battle for The Land of Lincoln Trophy.

Projection: Northwestern +5.7

Pick: Northwestern +7.5 or Better

Louisiana-Monroe +10 vs. Louisiana

Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

As I mentioned earlier, not all five-win teams are created equal. It's entirely subjective determining which programs you think will care about getting to bowl eligibility.

I happen to think UL Monroe sits atop the motivation list under a new regime following a 2-10 season for a program that has never won a bowl game.

And while I don't show an abundance of value from a point-spread perspective, there are other factors at play besides what I think will be a super-motivated ULM team.

In terms of the Sun Belt race, Louisiana sits atop the West with a one-game margin over South Alabama. The Ragin' Cajuns will clinch the division with a win over UL Monroe.

However, if South Alabama loses on Friday, Louisiana won't really have anything to play for on Saturday. And considering Texas State is currently a small favorite, there's a slightly greater than 50% chance that happens.

With original starting quarterback Ben Wooldridge already on the shelf with an injury, ULL might be more inclined to rest quarterback Chandler Fields (who I have rated a bit worse) ahead of the Sun Belt title game if South Alabama falls on Friday.

From a matchup perspective, the UL Monroe offense is extremely limited. It plays really slow (ideal for a double-digit dog at least) and wants to feed running back Ahmad Hardy as frequently as possible.

Well, that formula could absolutely work against a horrific ULL run defense that ranks dead last in the country in Rush Success Rate allowed (and 132nd in Rush EPA).

The Warhawks should be able to sustain drives by relying on their ground game and in turn shorten this game. On the other side of the ball, their secondary can at least compete with Louisiana's high-powered aerial attack.

I also think Louisiana comes into this game a bit overvalued after benefiting from a number of breaks during league play. There's likely some turnover regression coming, and none of its three league road wins have come by more than 10 points against Coastal Carolina, Texas State and lowly Southern Miss.

Projection: UL Monroe +8.9

Pick: UL Monroe +10 or Better

UTSA +7.5 at Army

Saturday, 12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

I love this spot for Meep Meep, which is playing its best football of the season, having found its footing on offense with Owen McCown slinging it all over the field.

After a slow start to the season, UTSA has won four of its last five with the lone loss coming by one after it somehow blew a 35-7 lead.

It has scored at least 38 points in all five with explosive plays all over the field. The Roadrunners shouldn't have issues moving the ball on this Army defense.

Most importantly, UTSA brings an elite run defense up to West Point, which is obviously critical against the Black Knights. On the season, the Roadrunners have only allowed 3.07 yards per rush, which ranks 11th nationally, while ranking second in Rush Success Rate and eighth in EPA per Rush.

They also grade out at an elite level in some of the underlying metrics (such as Stuff Rate) that I look for when evaluating how a defense will perform against a service academy offense.

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Plus, Army might be a bit deflated after last week's crushing defeat against Notre Dame, which essentially ended its College Football Playoff hopes.

The Black Knights are essentially playing for nothing in this game with the AAC title and Army-Navy game on deck.

They also got pretty beat up last week against the Irish, which could have some lingering effects this weekend, while UTSA will get to enjoy an extra day of rest and prep after playing in a laugher against Temple.

These two teams seem to be trending in different directions. Army might be wearing down after playing an actual league schedule compared to previous seasons when it had four or five cupcakes on its schedule that provided a nice breather.

Meanwhile, UTSA has really put things together after dealing with injuries early in the season, as you'd expect under a very good head coach in Jeff Traylor.

Give me Meep Meep in a good spot with a spread I think is super inflated.

Projection: UTSA +4.0

UTSA +7.5 (Play to +6)

USC +7.5 vs. Notre Dame

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS

After another dominant Notre Dame victory over Army, I think inflation has officially hit the market, getting us over a touchdown with USC at home.

From a scheduling perspective, this is also a decent spot for USC.

The Trojans have been in Los Angeles for weeks, while Notre Dame will have to travel across the country after playing in the Bronx. This will also mark Notre Dame's first true road game since way back in mid-September in West Lafayette against the corpse of Purdue.

The Irish have undoubtedly been extremely impressive after their stunning loss at home to Northern Illinois, but who have they really played over that span?

Their most impressive win came at home against Louisville in game it closed as a 6.5-point favorite. (For what it's worth, I have Louisville and USC power-rated about even.)

The Irish won that game by seven but were outgained, 395-280. The Cardinals were just done in by three turnovers (ND had three scoring drives that amassed six or fewer yards in the first half) and four failed fourth-down attempts.

Notre Dame is starting to be priced in that elite category of teams, but we've seen what has happened all year with teams near that category. The Irish still have a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 60 nationally (the Trojans are at No. 16) and have benefited from an extreme +16 turnover margin that ranks second in the nation.

If this spread stayed under a touchdown all week, I wouldn't have had a wager, but once it steamed up over the key of seven, I had to back the Trojans in a game I project around six after making official adjustments following last weekend's results.

As you'd expect with one of the best defensive staffs in college football, the Trojans defense has started to play much better in recent weeks.

They might struggle a bit to completely shut down Notre Dame's vaunted rushing attack, but I think they can bend without breaking.

Keep in mind USC should have a special teams edge as well against a Notre Dame team that really struggles in that department outside of its ability to block kicks and punts (shout out Bryce Young).

This will be a big step up in class for the Notre Dame defense. While I think the move from Miller Moss to Jayden Maiava is a slight downgrade, the difference isn't significant either way.

Plus, Maiava's mobility is probably a better fit for Lincoln Riley's offense and should be useful in this particular matchup.

This is still a very talented USC team that was catching 3.5 points at home against Penn State — which I have power-rated slightly ahead of ND — in a game it should've won.

Despite having five losses, USC is one of six teams in the country to hold a fourth quarter lead in every game this season. Notre Dame is actually one of the other five, along with Oregon, Ohio State, Boise State and UNLV.

I'd expect Riley to have a very good script and game plan here with a few wrinkles saved just for this game. USC can play completely loose and free in the spoiler role, as it also looks to exact revenge for last year's embarrassing loss in South Bend.

All of the pressure is on the Irish, but I'm most interested in that inflated price tag.

Projection: USC +5.9

Pick: USC +7.5 or Better

Michigan State 1H ML -115 vs. Rutgers

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

I refer to Michigan State as the script team. Its offense has been leaps and bounds better early in the game during the scripted portion of the game, especially relative to their second-half output. The opposite holds true for Rutgers.

Against FBS teams, Michigan State averages 11.5 points in the first half compared to just a paltry 6.3 in the second half, making it one of only four teams in FBS to average fewer than a touchdown over the final 30 minutes of games.

Look no further than last week against Purdue in which it built a 24-3 halftime lead and had to hold for dear life for a 24-17 victory.

Conversely, Rutgers averages 11.8 points per first half and an even better 13.2 in the second half — which is a touch higher than the national average and almost a full touchdown more than Michigan State.

Given Michigan State's struggles in the secondary, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Rutgers mounts a second-half comeback to pull out the road win after a hopefully slow start.

Also, situationally, this is a really good spot for Michigan State, which profiles as one of the teams I think really values getting to a bowl in Jonathan Smith's first season.

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I expect Sparty to come out fully motivated sitting with five wins on the season. It would certainly be an impressive feat given all of the offseason change and a gauntlet of a schedule.

Meanwhile, where is Rutgers at mentally after inexplicably blowing that game last week against Illinois? Already bowl-eligible, the Scarlet Knights could come out a bit flat here.

Plus, from a matchup perspective, Michigan State should be able to get its ground game going early on against Rutgers (121st in Success Rate), which will certainly help with the script.

Plus, the Spartans' strong run defense (16th in Success Rate) can slow down Rutgers on the ground, which is the key to slowing down the Scarlet Knight offense.

Give me the more motivated team that has played the more difficult schedule and excels early in games at home with a shot at bowl eligibility — especially with a few key matchup advantages on both sides of the ball.

Pick: Michigan State 1H ML (-115)

LSU -6 vs. Oklahoma

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

After an all-out effort out of the bye to upset Alabama as a two-touchdown underdog to reach bowl eligibility, how much does Oklahoma and Jackson Arnold (who ran the ball 25 times) have left in the tank for a road trip to take on LSU in Death Valley at night?

I have my doubts about a completely one-dimensional offense that simply can't throw the ball due to the injuries at wide receiver and issues in pass protection. LSU also now has enough film on the new-look Oklahoma offense after the coordinator change.

There's not much else to this one other than the fact I project this over a touchdown and I'm sure Brian Kelly wants a big win after the events surrounding the program over the past week.

You do want to attack Oklahoma through the air, which is what LSU wants to do and the Tigers have the offensive line to protect Garrett Nussmeier enough.

The Sooners also won't be able to exploit LSU's weakness in preventing explosive plays through the air.

Projection: LSU -8.6

Pick: LSU -6 (Play to -6.5)

Texas A&M +6 vs. Texas

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

For the final time in 2024, I will pose the question: are we sure Texas is super elite?

The Longhorns have benefited from an extremely easy league schedule that has included five of the six SEC teams with a losing record. The one team they played with a winning record (Georgia) beat them with ease in Austin.

They also played the one team sitting at .500 in league play in Florida, but the Gators started their third-string quarterback with multiple backup defensive backs in a horrible situational spot.

The Texas offense has a ton of talent, but the production just hasn't been there against top-tier defenses for the most part.

A 42% Success Rate and 4.6 yards per play against the Arkansas defense is definitely worrisome, as is a 44% Success Rate and 5.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt in their other true road game in SEC play.

Neither of those defenses has anywhere close to the talent that A&M possesses.

Even in a blowout win over Michigan, the final tally sans garbage time was only a 40% Success Rate at 5.5 yards per play.

And I didn't even mention the Georgia game where the offensive numbers were horrific.

Something just seems off, and now Quinn Ewers might be dealing with an ankle injury that could have potential lingering effects this week against a very formidable pass rush.

The A&M offense has its flaws, but I really liked what I saw last week on the road against a top-tier Auburn defense. I think it can carry some of that momentum over into this week.

Lastly, I think A&M will benefit from some of the ancillary factors at play.

The home crowd in College Station at night will be one of the best environments you'll see all season for this rivalry game.

Don't be surprised if that causes some communication issues for Texas and gets A&M some calls, specifically of the holding variety after Mike Elko brought up in his presser this week that an A&M opponent hasn't been called for holding in over 28 quarters.

I have a sneaky suspicion Texas might get called for a few drive-killing holding calls.

This is also an absolute must-win scenario for Texas A&M, while Texas is probably safe in terms of its CFP position after all of the recent chaos across college football. It's probably meaningless in such a heated rivalry, but Texas A&M might have a bit more desperation.

Lastly, don't forget about special teams, where A&M holds a distinct advantage. That could matter in a game expected to be very competitive.

Projection: Texas A&M +3.4

Pick: Texas A&M +6 (Play to +5.5)

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