It's time to dive into Saturday's slate for college football Week 8 following an 18-2 run over the past two weeks, which was a welcome relief after a very slow start to the season.
Peaks and valleys are inevitable in this gig, so, like always, it's onto the next.
Looking ahead to Week 8, I have highlighted my 11 favorite spots I had circled for Saturday's slate.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections.
All lines referenced are current as of the time of writing early in the week. I will always log what I bet on the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for convenience.
My ultimate goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were considering by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football predictions, picks and situational betting spots for Week 8.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 29-22-1 (56.9%)
- Overall: 128-92-2 (58.2%)
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | East Carolina +16.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Auburn +5.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Nebraska +7 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Charlotte +17.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Western Michigan -1 |
  | 4 p.m. | Maryland +7.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Arkansas +3 |
  | 7 p.m. | Ball State +27 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Michigan State +6.5 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | Kentucky ML -120 |
  | 10 p.m. | Oregon State +7.5 |
East Carolina +16.5 at Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I'm starting the day out by fading Army, which has gone 6-0 against the spread to start the season. What could possibly go wrong?
Well, for one, ECU could turn the ball over a million times, which the Pirates have done all season. I'm hoping a bit of positive regression hits in that area with ECU ranking 118th (-6) and Army in the top 10 (+7).
I also don't expect the Army defense to continue its outrageous success in the red zone with opponents scoring on only 41% of trips inside the 20 this season, which leads the nation. For reference, the Texas defense ranks second at 57%.
Army's offense has also scored touchdowns on an unsustainable 22-of-24 red-zone trips, while ECU has had one of the worst-performing red-zone offenses in the entire country in a metric that has plenty of short-term variance.
An extremely soft schedule that ranks 156th in the country including FCS teams has certainly helped juice up a lot of its metrics across the board. Army's six wins have come against the following teams:
- Lehigh
- Florida Atlantic
- Rice
- Temple
- UAB
- Tulsa
Not a single one of those five FBS opponents ranks inside the top 100 of my current power ratings with an average ranking outside the top 120. That's as easy as it possibly gets through six weeks.
ECU will also benefit from coming off a bye week (after an embarrassing loss to Charlotte), which is always beneficial against a service academy offense.
Army has gone back to its basic triple-option attack with a bit more modern principles, which this ECU defense should have plenty of familiarity with since it has faced Navy in each of the past five seasons.
From a metrics standpoint, ECU also fits the profile of a defense that can slow down Army's vaunted ground game led by quarterback Bryson Daily. The Pirates rank in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate, EPA per Rush, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. That's the formula for containing this Army offense.
I also still have questions about the Army defense, which has played a bunch of carcasses, yet still ranks outside the top 90 in Success Rate.
While ECU has not been the model of consistency on offense primarily due to killer turnovers, it has flashed at times and has playmakers at the skill positions.
To me, this is the very tippy-top of the market on Army. And not only am I selling high on the Black Knights, but I'm buying low on the Pirates after the debacle against Charlotte.
This is still a team that's two blown 17-0 leads against Liberty and App State away from sitting at 5-1 overall. It doesn't hurt that it's coming off of a bye and has a plus-run defense.
Notable Nugget
Historically, service academies have only covered at a 41% clip as favorites of 14 or more points.
Projection: East Carolina +11.7
Pick: East Carolina +14 or Better
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Auburn +5.5 at Missouri
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
Are we positive Missouri is even a top-20 team? I have the Tigers power-rated right on the fringe, but it wouldn't surprise me if they continue to fall throughout the season.
Their three data points against quality competition are not very encouraging. They should have lost at home to Vanderbilt, got utterly destroyed at Texas A&M, and won by six after trailing by double digits against Boston College in Columbia.
The other three data points are basically useless for a team that has faced a strength of schedule that ranks outside the top 100 nationally.
The Missouri offense just hasn’t looked right this year. The explosives are missing, and the Tigers may be without Nate Noel, who has been their most productive back this year, averaging 6.0 yards per carry compared to Marcus Carroll’s 4.8.
Meanwhile, Auburn has actually fared better statistically against a drastically more difficult schedule that should have resulted in a couple more wins if not for some untimely turnovers. On the season, against that tougher slate, Auburn has a half-yard edge over Missouri in terms of net yards per play.
Coming into the season, I had major questions about this Missouri defense after key losses at certain positions along the defensive line, linebacker and especially in the secondary.
None of those questions have been answered so far, which is definitely concerning against an Auburn offense that has proven it can move the ball against top-tier defenses.
If Payton Thorne can just avoid the costly turnovers — a big if — the Auburn offense will have ample opportunities for success both through the air and on the ground.
Outside of the mistakes, Thorne has actually been very good this season and substantially better than freshman Hank Brown, who clearly wasn't ready to play quarterback at this level, so keep in mind his 90 snaps are even suppressing Auburn's offensive numbers a bit.
Simply put, I just don't have much separating these teams at the moment.
If Auburn doesn't blow a pair of games it dominated statistically (+300 net yards combined) with costly mistakes (-4 turnover margin) against Arkansas and Oklahoma, this line would probably sit closer to a field goal — especially if Missouri didn't pull out that double-overtime victory against Vanderbilt.
I also didn't even mention Auburn's one-possession home loss to Cal earlier this season when it had a -5 turnover margin.
Plus, while Missouri will head home after a long two-game road trip that took it from College Station to Amherst, Auburn will benefit from a much-needed bye week after an early-season gauntlet.
Hugh Freeze is still one of the best offensive game-planners in the country, so I'd expect a super sharp script and a few wrinkles throughout the game that may catch a vulnerable Missouri defense by surprise.
Notable Nugget
Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze is 30-14 ATS (68.2%) as an underdog, covering by 6.5 points per game. That includes an 18-9 ATS record (66.7%) against SEC competition.
Projection: Auburn +3
Pick: Auburn +4.5 or Better
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Nebraska +7 at Indiana
12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
A trend you'll notice this week is I'm backing a number of teams coming off byes with head coaches who have thrived as underdogs. This is another one that fits the bill with Matt Rhule — although it's worth mentioning that Indiana will also be coming off of a bye.
Indiana has been absolutely rolling under new head coach Curt Cignetti. All that guy does is win, and you can Google him if you don't believe me.
And while I came into the season higher than the market on this Hoosiers squad, I think we've reached the very peak of the market on IU, which has even started to get some College Football Playoff love.
This is still a team that has wins over the following teams:
- Florida International
- Western Illinois
- UCLA
- Charlotte
- Maryland
- Northwestern
Not exactly a murderer's row with none of those six ranking inside the top 50 of my latest power ratings.
This will obviously be a step up in class against a top-30 Nebraska team that's an overtime away from also sitting at 6-0.
If Illinois didn't make a miraculous interception in the end zone to get to overtime, we'd be talking about a huge battle of Big Ten undefeateds, and I can guarantee this spread would be sitting a few points lower than a touchdown.
I do still have some lingering questions about this Indiana defense, which allowed 24-plus points against Maryland (which amassed over 400 yards) and Northwestern, which were both within one possession at Indiana before the Hoosiers pulled away late.
The Nebraska defense will also provide the biggest resistance to date by a wide margin for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosier offense.
Nobody loses more one-possession games than Nebraska, which is probably what happens in this one. Give me one order of corn in Bloomington.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, out of 595 coaches in our Action Labs database, Matt Rhule is the fifth-most profitable head coach as an underdog. Over that span, he's gone 35-18-1 ATS (66%) when catching points, covering by 4.3 points per game, including 19-9 (67.9%) on the road.
Projection: Nebraska +4.4
Pick: Nebraska +6.5 or Better
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Charlotte +17.5 at Navy
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
Yup. I'm fading three of the biggest cash cows in college football this season in Army, Indiana and Navy.
Call me dumb or un-American, but I just think inflation has finally hit all three after such smashing ATS success to start the year.
Plus, as I mentioned with ECU against Army above, a service academy laying this type of number will always pique my interest as a potential fade candidate when not playing an absolute corpse.
It's also worth mentioning that Navy has a huge game against Notre Dame on deck, which could decide its playoff fate. So, it's possible the Mids potentially get caught peaking ahead a bit or take the foot off the gas a bit sooner than usual.
You can pretty much copy the breakdown for Charlotte against Army, as the similarities are eerily similar, but I'll share my thoughts anyway.
Both teams will benefit from a bye week, but that should be more beneficial for Charlotte since Navy runs such a unique offense. Plus, the 49ers have also dealt with more injuries than their counterpart.
It also wouldn't shock me if Navy spent a portion of its bye week preparing for Notre Dame, which it hosts next week.
The 49ers also have the element of surprise working in their favor with the potential return of Florida transfer quarterback Max Brown from injury. If he can't go, it will be true freshman Deshawn Purdie, who has led Charlotte to two straight victories after relieving Trexler Ivey in a comeback victory prior to getting the start in a 55-24 rout of ECU prior to the off week.
The Navy-modified Delaware wing-T combined with its vintage triple option with much more play-action and motion under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic is firing on all cylinders.
However, Charlotte does at least grade out adequately in Stuff Rate and Line Yards — two areas I always focus on when handicapping defenses against service academies.
And while Navy's offensive output against Memphis was super impressive, it caught the Tigers in an ideal situational spot.
The Midshipmen's other four wins have come against an FCS school (Bucknell) and three corpses in Temple, UAB and Air Force — a trio that has a 1-15 combined record against FBS opponents.
And like Army, there's likely regression coming in the high-variance categories such as red-zone efficiency and turnover margin.
If you include FCS schools, Navy's strength of schedule ranks outside the top 140, per Sagarin, while Charlotte has played a significantly tougher slate of opponents, including Indiana, James Madison and North Carolina.
Lastly, I'm still not fully sold on a Navy defense that gave up nearly 700 yards to Memphis and just under 400 to UAB with a third-string quarterback. Charlotte will have some opportunities to hit some explosive plays — which has been the majority of its offensive output — against a Mids defense that has proven vulnerable in that department even against a joke of a schedule.
Give me the road pups here in what I think is an overinflated line. Last year's final score between these two would certainly work when Navy came out on top, 14-0, despite each team gaining exactly 265 total yards.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Navy has gone just 5-13 ATS (27.8%) as a two-touchdown plus favorite against FBS competition.
Projection: Charlotte +14
Pick: Charlotte +16 or Better
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Western Michigan -1 at Buffalo
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I think this is a good time to sell the Bulls after they pulled off their second straight MAC win as double-digit underdogs.
While a bit better than expected, they really benefited from catching both Northern Illinois (following the Notre Dame upset) and Toledo (following the MAC title revenge victory over Miami Ohio) at the perfect times.
I also just don't think very highly of this year's Rockets team, so I wasn't surprised to see the outright upset as I mentioned in last week's piece. Also keep in mind that NIU outgained Buffalo, 359-184, in that loss earlier this season.
Buffalo still has one of the worst offenses in the country, ranking dead last in Success Rate. Therefore, I can't envision the Bulls — who have the nation's worst passing attack from an EPA perspective — fully exploiting a Broncos defense that certainly has holes, especially in coverage.
On the other side of the ball, Western Michigan is now fully healthy on offense after dealing with a few key injuries to its best players over the first month-and-a-half of the season.
Despite those, it still had the ball inside the 10-yard line with a chance to tie the game at Marshall in the final minute and actually led Wisconsin in Madison in the fourth quarter before a game-changing muffed punt.
With Jalen Buckley now healthy, the Broncos have a dynamic duo in the backfield with him and Jaden Nixon.
The massive WMU offensive line, anchored by All-MAC candidates Jacob Gideon at center and Addison West at guard, should absolutely dominate at the line of scrimmage against an extremely undersized Buffalo defensive line.
The Bulls do have the best linebacker duo in the league with Red Murdock and Shaun Dolac, who will clean up everything on the second level. However, the Broncos should have no issues getting consistent yards on the ground, which should lead to extremely manageable third-down distances.
Buffalo is much more vulnerable against the run, which Toledo simply couldn't exploit last week with its anemic rushing attack.
The Broncos are now not only fully healthy at running back and along the offensive line, but also at wide receiver, which could prove problematic for a Buffalo secondary that could be shorthanded after last weekend.
Home-field advantage is pretty non-existent in the MAC, so I'm happy to back the road Broncos here since I haven't wavered on my preseason belief that they are at least a field goal better than the home Bulls.
Plus, I like some matchups on both sides of the ball.
Notable Nugget
MAC home teams in league play have covered at just a 45% clip (-11.9% ROI) over the past 20 seasons.
Projection:Western Michigan -3
Pick: Western Michigan -1 or Better
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Maryland +7.5 vs. USC
4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
This is a tough situational spot for the Trojans, who have to be a bit deflated after back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Minnesota and most recently Penn State in overtime in a game they led by two touchdowns.
Combine those with another close loss at Michigan, and USC has basically no hope of reaching the College Football Playoff or winning the Big Ten in its inaugural year.
Will Lincoln Riley's bunch respond in a brutal travel spot across the country in College Park? I'll pay to make them prove they can get off the mat.
The Trojans are a bruised and battered bunch (potentially emotionally as well) after a brutal schedule to start the year.
I'm also buying low on the Terps — who will benefit from an extra day of rest and preparation for their second straight home game — after their embarrassing home loss against Northwestern last Friday night. In fairness, that loss had a lot to do with a -4 turnover margin
Prior to last week, quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. had been playing extremely well and will now benefit from facing a USC defense that ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
The defensive line also isn't an overwhelming unit, which should help out a pretty subpar Maryland offensive line.
The Trojans excel at limiting explosive passing plays, but that hasn't really been an integral part of the Maryland offense this season.
The Terps should find success with an efficient passing attack — led by Kaden Prather and Tai Felton — and by hitting some explosive runs with Roman Hemby against a banged-up USC defense that also has some looming negative late-down regression.
Already without linebacker Eric Gentry, who led the team in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks through four games before his injury, the Trojans have now lost starting defensive end Anthony Lucas for the season. Lucas, who leads the team in total pressures, will be sorely missed in this particular matchup.
On the other side of the ball, Maryland's struggling secondary has failed miserably in terms of limiting explosive passing plays, but those have been sorely lacking from USC.
Maryland's strength on defense lies in its front seven, which should help limit running back Woody Marks and create Havoc against an extremely vulnerable USC offensive line, especially at both tackle spots.
Miller Moss has also regressed a bit since an outstanding opener against LSU. In the five games since, he's thrown 10 touchdowns to five interceptions but has only four big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. In comparison, Edwards owns a 19-6 ratio — albeit against a much easier schedule of opposing defenses.
USC does have a much better overall staff, which scares me a bit, but this is as tricky of a situational spot as you'll find on the board this week. I had to take 7.5 in a game I project slightly lower than a touchdown from a power-ratings perspective.
Notable Nugget
USC — just 44-60-2 ATS on the road overall since 2005 – is 0-10 SU (and 1-9 ATS) in the eastern or central time zones since 2011. This will mark their first game on the East Coast since losing outright as 17-point favorites at Boston College in 2014.
Projection: Maryland +6.4
Pick: Maryland +7 or Better
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Arkansas +3 vs. LSU
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
This is a tough spot for the Tigers, who will travel to Fayetteville after pulling off an improbable overtime win over Ole Miss.
As an LSU backer last week, I can honestly say the Tigers got very lucky (in a spectacular situational spot) thanks to Ole Miss penalties and injuries in addition to a miraculous game-tying touchdown drive in the final minute that was aided by a couple of fourth-down conversions.
Keep in mind that LSU also got extremely lucky in another three-point win earlier this season against South Carolina. In that game, it came back from 17 down thanks in large part to some questionable officiating, more opposing injuries and another game-winning drive in the final minute that required a fourth-down conversion (SC offsides).
In the Tigers' two comeback league wins by a combined six points, their opponents were penalized a combined 25 times for 233 yards.
LSU is two plays away from sitting at 3-3 overall and 0-2 in league play.
This is still a team with holes on defense and an offense that's extremely reliant on its passing attack. Garrett Nussmeier will get his fair share of yards through the air (and may have a healthier wide receiver corps) but will also have bouts of late-down inefficiency against a complex defense.
Conversely, Arkansas is two plays away from being 6-0 despite a very difficult strength of schedule.
It lost in double overtime to Oklahoma State despite outgaining the Pokes by nearly 300 yards, and it probably should've beat undefeated Texas A&M in Arlington.
Plus, while LSU found itself in the midst of a war against the Rebels, Arkansas sat at home last week on its bye week, which gave the Razorbacks two weeks to rest up, get healthier and prepare for this SEC showdown.
As a result, I expect Bobby Petrino and Travis Williams — one of the best coordinator duos in college football today — to have a very good game plan on both sides of the ball with plenty of wrinkles.
For what it's worth, I'm operating under the assumption that quarterback Taylen Green — who got hurt late in the upset win over Tennessee — will play on Saturday night. Head coach Sam Pittman didn't confirm his availability but did state Green has been practicing, which signals to me he should be good to go.
The Arkansas defense has also done a much better job of limiting explosive plays, which I think will ultimately be the difference.
To back the Hogs, I need at least a field goal, which has interestingly been the exact margin of this matchup in each of the past four years.
Back to the Pittman 'dog well we go. For what it's worth, SEC underdogs are an astonishing 18-6 ATS (75%) in league play this season, covering by 7.8 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Sam Pittman is 22-8 ATS (73.3%) as an underdog, covering by nearly five points per game on average. That includes a 15-4 ATS (78.9%) mark against top-20 opponents. He's also 5-1 ATS with extra time to prepare.
Projection: Arkansas +1.9
Pick: Arkansas +3 or Better
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Ball State +27 at Vanderbilt
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
This is your sandwich spot of the weekend and potentially the entire season.
Following two huge wins over Alabama and Kentucky as a double-digit underdog, Vanderbilt will host Ball State before No. 1 Texas comes to town.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Commodores come out a bit flat and also elect to not show much on offense against an inferior opponent. I'd also expect head coach Clark Lea to pull his starters a bit earlier than usual with a lead in this particular spot and potentially sit anybody dealing with any lingering injuries.
I wouldn't be surprised if Diego Pavia gets a much lighter workload with some of the lower-body injuries he's dealing with.
More importantly, this is a Vanderbilt team that plays extremely slow in lower-possession games, which makes it tougher to cover larger numbers. I've said since its opener that this team profiles like an SEC service academy, which means I want to fade it as a big favorite and back it as a big underdog.
To wit, the 'Dores lost outright as double-digit favorites against Georgia State, while winning outright as double-digit underdogs against Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky and nearly Missouri in an OT loss.
Ball State's defense is horrific, so the only thing working in its favor on that side of the ball is the clock.
However, the Cardinals have found a bit of life of late in a brand new offensive scheme with quarterback Kadin Semonza and company.
They sit at 2-4 on the season but lost a pair of coin-flip games against Western Michigan and Central Michigan by a field goal each. And while they beat Kent State by only two last week, they were up 20 in that game before some wild late shenanigans.
Ultimately, I think Ball State can put together a couple of scoring drives, which is likely all it will take to get inside this number against a potentially sleepy Vanderbilt team. Plus, if needed, the backdoor could swing wide open late.
You definitely have to hold your nose with this one, but give me the road MAC dog against a Vandy team likely at the peak of its market value.
For what it's worth, I came into the season super low on this Ball State bunch and have downgraded it a bit through seven weeks. Conversely, I've upgraded Vanderbilt's power rating by double-digit points but still can't get to a spread of 24 in this matchup — without even considering the situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Vanderbilt hasn't closed as a favorite of over 24 points against an FBS opponent since 2013.
Projection: Ball State +23.3
Pick: Vanderbilt +25 or Better
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Michigan State +6.5 vs. Iowa
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I've had this spot circled since before the season with Michigan State having 15 days to prepare for Iowa after back-to-back contests against top-five teams in Ohio State and Oregon.
Not only did I anticipate those results deflating Sparty's market value, but I thought the bye could be extra valuable for a team that had so much turnover from a staff and roster perspective in the offseason.
It also helps to have one of the most underrated coaches in the country steering the ship, especially considering the Spartans have dealt with an abundance of injuries through the first half of the season.
Iowa played its role in this spot by blowing out Washington, 40-16, which was a misleading final score. The Hawkeyes, who were outgained 393-328, were aided by all kinds of Washington mistakes in a brutal situational spot for the Huskies.
Matchup-wise, Michigan State's defense has fared much better against the run, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Rush Success Rate. That's critical against an Iowa offense that wants to lean on Kaleb Johnson and the ground game.
The Michigan State defense has also really struggled in limiting explosiveness, particularly through the air, but Iowa has one of the least explosive passing offenses in FBS.
And while this Iowa defense is still very good, it's not the same elite unit (51st in Success Rate) we've seen in recent years under coordinator Phil Parker, especially along the defensive line.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles will have opportunities to make plays. I just hope he doesn't make too many mistakes, which is my biggest concern on Saturday night in East Lansing.
Give me the home pup in an ideal situational spot catching nearly a touchdown in a game where points should come at a premium with a total of just 41.5.
Notable Nugget
Jonathan Smith is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) with extra time (eight or more days) to prepare for an opponent, including 8-1 against the number (88.9%) as an underdog, covering by over a field goal per game.
Projection: Michigan State +4.9
Pick: Michigan State +6 or Better
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Kentucky ML -120 at Florida
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Kentucky has bounced back very well this season after disappointing performances, and I expect the Cats to do the same here after losing to Vanderbilt.
After losing to South Carolina, they almost upset Georgia as 24-point underdogs, then followed up that loss with an upset win over Ole Miss as 17-point underdogs.
More importantly, I love the matchup.
Kentucky's passing attack remains wildly inconsistent, but the rushing attack has been productive (top-15 Success Rate), which should be enough to move the ball against a Florida defense that can't stop the run, ranking outside the top-90 in EPA and Success Rate.
On the other side of the ball, you simply can't run on this dominant Kentucky defensive front. As a result, without the injured Graham Mertz, the entire offensive burden will fall on the shoulders of DJ Lagway.
While talented, he simply isn't ready yet to consistently beat this Wildcat secondary.
Removing his game against Samford, Lagway has gone just 29-of-47 for 300 yards with two touchdowns to four interceptions, and this will be the best defense he will have faced all year.
He’s destined to be under pressure from the UK front, which will likely lead to a couple of key mistakes against a Cats secondary that can get home while dropping seven or eight, forcing Lagway to drive the ball efficiently down the field. That’s a tall task for the frosh.
Give me the better staff to bounce back with plus matchups on both sides of the ball against an inexperienced freshman quarterback.
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier is 0-2 ATS against Kentucky since arriving in Gainesville, failing to cover by over 16 points per game.
Projection: Kentucky -2.8
Pick: Kentucky ML -120 or Better
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Oregon State +7.5 vs. UNLV
10 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Do I love this Oregon State team? Absolutely not. The Beavers seem to get bet against every week in the market for good reason with an atrocious run defense and lackluster passing attack.
However, I have to play this spot after the line moved up over a touchdown in a game I project around 5.
Not only could UNLV get caught looking ahead to one of the biggest G5 games of the entire season on deck (against Boise State on a short week next Friday), but the defense has to be feeling the effects of playing 90-plus snaps in each of its past two games with the latest coming in altitude.
That could be problematic against a heavy Oregon State rush attack that wants to control the ball and lean on opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.
I also think the Rebels might be a bit overrated in the market for some of their past results. They caught Houston at the perfect time when the Cougars were still a mess with Donovan Smith at quarterback.
They also got a bit fortunate against a Kansas team that has been extremely disappointing.
I also believe they caught Fresno State at the perfect time with the Bulldogs not being prepared for new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams after original starter Matthew Sluka decided to sit out for the season.
UNLV has also benefited from the best net field position in the country in addition to an FBS-leading +12 turnover margin.
Meanwhile, the Beavers have not had Lady Luck on their side in either category. Even quarterback Gevani McCoy, who certainly leaves a lot to be desired as a passer, has been a bit unfortunate.
I'm certainly concerned that UNLV will just gash this Beavers run defense that ranks 134th in Rush Success Rate.
However, this is a superb spot at a valuable price over a key number to buy low on the Beavers, who come off an upset loss at Nevada despite outgunning the Wolfpack by 140 net yards thanks to a -4 turnover margin.
Notable Nugget
Teams playing on the road the next week following a road game at the nine FBS stadiums with an elevation of at least 4,000 feet have gone just 90-120-5 ATS (42.9%) since 2005.
As road chalk in these spots, teams have gone a paltry 28-50-1 (35.9%) ATS, including just 16-39-1 (29.1%) when favored by more than four points.
Projection: Oregon State +4.8
Pick: Oregon State +7 or Better
