College Football Odds, Picks: Collin Wilson’s Week 3 Predictions for Alabama-Wisconsin, UCF-TCU on Sept. 14

College Football Odds, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	8 p.m.	Over 59
	12 p.m.	Wisconsin Team Total Under 16.5
	7:30 p.m.	Colorado Team Total Over 33.5
	7:30 p.m.	UCF ML -120
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College football Week 3 is upon us.

While there aren't many marquee matchups on the board this week, we have a few rivalry games and plenty of betting opportunities.

It all starts on Friday night when the Arizona Wildcats travel to the Little Apple to take on the Kansas State Wildcats in a nonconference clash between new Big 12 foes.

To kick things off on Saturday, the Big Ten's Wisconsin Badgers host the Alabama Crimson Tide of the SEC in what will be one of the most intriguing nonconference matchups of the weekend.

Then, to close things out at night, Coach Prime and the Colorado Buffaloes head to Fort Collins to face the Colorado State Rams in a rematch of an incredible game from last season.

Elsewhere at 7:30 p.m. ET, the UCF Knights and TCU Horned Frogs go to battle under the lights at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

So, let's dive into my top college football picks and predictions in my Action Network betting card for Week 3.

Friday, Sept. 13

8 p.m. ET

FOX

Over 59

There may be no better measurement of a team's ability to compete in a new conference than taking on one of the best programs in the Midwest during a nonconference affair.

Arizona will officially begin Big 12 play in Week 5 against Utah, but first up is a nonconference showdown with fellow Big 12 member Kansas State in Manhattan.

Equipped with the new "Red Cats" uniform combination, Arizona will look to remain undefeated after a troubling offensive performance against Northern Arizona. The Wildcats did not convert a single third down in 10 attempts against the Lumberjacks.

Now, they'll look to bring a highly explosive passing attack to Bill Snyder Family Stadium.

Kansas State returns to Manhattan after surviving a nonconference trip to New Orleans. Tulane took a 20-10 lead into halftime against the Wildcats, and Kansas State needed 24 points in the second half with a few explosive drives to survive the Green Wave.

Tulane torched the secondary in the first half before K-State made adjustments on both sides of the ball.

Head coach Chris Klieman remarked that the Arizona defense could present issues to a Kansas State rushing attack that has been a staple ever since Klieman took over in 2019.

With the spread favoring the home team by a possession — Kansas State enters as a 7-point favorite with a total of 59.5 — where does the value lie in Friday Night Lights? Read on for my Arizona vs. Kansas State prediction.

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Arizona Wildcats

The offensive box scores from Arizona's victories over New Mexico and Northern Arizona could not be more different.

Offensive coordinator Dino Babers' offense hummed in the season opener to the tune of 61 points while gaining 77% of available yards by creating an explosive drive on half of its possessions.

Quarterback Noah Fifita didn't follow former coach Jedd Fisch to Washington, opening with a 422-yard, four-touchdown passing performance under new head coach Brent Brennan.

Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan took the early lead in the Biletnikoff Award race with all four touchdowns and 304 receiving yards spread out over 10 catches.

The feelings were not so warm in a 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona, where the offensive line allowed 10 pressures in 29 dropbacks.

A number of starters missed the Northern Arizona game due to injury, including team captain and center Josh Baker. Jonah Savaiinaea made his first career start at left tackle, while right guard Ryan Stewart moved to right tackle.

Baker was the biggest piece missing on the line from a continuity standpoint, starting 28 straight games and serving as the primary snapper for Fifita.

The good news for the Wildcats was a stout defensive performance after allowing New Mexico to post 39 points in the season opener.

The nickel package defense that rotates from a 2-4-5 to a 3-3-5 lands in the top 50 of Action Network's Havoc Rankings, creating a respectable pass rush while ranking 11th in passes defensed through two games.

The bad news is that the Wildcats have  consistently given up scores when opponents cross their 40-yard line. In two games against New Mexico and Northern Arizona, the Wildcats have allowed nine drives beyond the 40 with an average of 5.3 points per trip.

Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State continues to be a heavy rush advocate, executing ground attempts at a 57% rate.

Zone read and power run concepts continue to dominate the box score, as quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens average more than 6.3 yards per carry.

The Wildcats continue to meet the program standard with a top-30 rank in Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. Where Kansas State struggles on offense is third down, converting just 6-of-20 attempts through Week 2.

Passing numbers have remained steady for Johnson through 48 dropbacks, recording the same rate of turnover-worthy plays and big-time throws as in 2023.

Early returns in passing categories, such as catchable ball, rate leave more to be desired. The 'Cats rank 91st of all FBS passing offenses in that area.

However, the good news comes with a crowded pocket, as Johnson has avoided getting sacked despite facing 12 pressures this season.

Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has several positive takeaways for his 3-3-5 personnel.

Kansas State ranks top-20 in defending the rush and Havoc. The Wildcats sit fourth nationally in creating tackles for loss, as offensive lines have had to contend with linebackers Austin Romaine and Desmond Purnell, who lead the team in tackles.

Havoc can be attributed to the edge positions, as Tobi Osunsanmi and Brendan Mott have combined for 14 pressures and five sacks.

The area of concern for Kansas State comes against the pass, ranking 128th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

A trio of starting safeties have provided the lowest coverage grades in the conference. Jordan Riley, Marques Sigle and VJ Payne have allowed 14-of-21 targets to be caught while failing to record a pass breakup.

Arizona vs Kansas State Prediction

Kansas State has been excellent at creating Havoc through two weeks of play, nearly leading the country in tackles for loss.

The Wildcats have also forced four fumbles and broken up three passes, indicating that Arizona's offense must improve on a bad offensive line performance against Northern Arizona.

There's good news for the offensive line, as Baker, the center, is practicing in preparation for Kansas State. The fifth-year senior was held out against Northern Arizona, a contributing factor to a number of offensive linemen playing new positions.

With improvement expected in pass protection for Arizona, the bigger question is if Fifita can take advantage of lackluster play by Kansas State's safeties.

Based on a limited sample from this season and all of 2023, Klanderman runs quarters and Cover 1 on 60% of coverage snaps using zone. Fifita has shredded quarters and Cover 1 at a high rate of success and EPA, similar to the man coverage seen on 25% of snaps last season.

Like last season, most of Fifita's success comes when attacking safeties between the hashes.

Kansas State's ground game is expected to have plenty of success on Friday night. Arizona's defense falls to 69th in Stuff Rate and 77th in Line Yards.

Kansas State ranks fourth in offensive momentum killer early this season, indicating the Wildcats do not stop themselves from getting into scoring position.

There are offensive advantages on both sides, particularly with an Arizona offensive line that may play with full health.

While Fifita and McMillan will create explosives in the pass game, Kansas State will look to Giddens and Johnson to extend drives and capitalize on scoring attempts.

Both teams rank top-20 in rush explosives, while Arizona has the advantage of ranking 18th in pass EPA.

With moderate wind not expected to limit kicking or passing, look for plenty of points between two offenses that have key advantages.

Pick: Over 59 (-120 or Better)

Saturday, Sept. 14

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Wisconsin Team Total Under 16.5

College football is undergoing massive changes from conference realignment to a new format for the College Football Playoff. Although we're in a new era, the issues that have plagued both Wisconsin and Alabama continue to persist in 2024.

The Crimson Tide have long struggled to reach a high level of success from the offensive line in run  and pass blocking. Head coach Kalen DeBoer inherited one of the more potent offensive attacks in the country, but the Crimson Tide have allowed 13 pressures through two games.

Run blocking continues to be an issue for Alabama, as it allowed South Florida to stuff 42% of its 38 rushing attempts in Week 2.

Meanwhile, the Wisconsin offense continues to struggle in the passing game despite a change at quarterback. The sluggish attack has failed to create explosives on the ground or through the air in a two-game sample against South Dakota and Western Michigan.

Head coach Luke Fickell spoke about the need for receivers to create separation downfield, something that keeps the Badgers outside the top 50 in Passing Success Rate.

Expect the Badgers faithful to jump around, as one of the premier SEC programs steps out of the southern footprint to play in Camp Randall Stadium. Find my Alabama vs. Wisconsin prediction below.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Despite a point spread north of four touchdowns, Alabama struggled in a second consecutive season against South Florida. The Bulls managed to stuff a high rate of rushing attempts but gave up ground explosives when the Crimson Tide maintained blocks.

The all-or-nothing offensive line created enough holes for junior Jam Miller, who had a breakout party against South Florida, creating three explosive runs while averaging 4.6 yards after first contact.

Conversely, the offensive line has failed to protect quarterback Jalen Milroe, allowing 15 pressures on just 44 dropbacks this season. Alabama ranks outside the top 100 in pass-block grading, per PFF.

When Milroe can get a clean release, a number of explosive weapons await.

Washington transfer Germie Bernard is the co-leader in targets, sharing slot duties with Kobe Prentice.

However, the star of the Alabama offense was born against South Florida, as 17-year old Ryan Williams hauled in a third touchdown while maintaining an average depth of target mark of 19.5 yards.

Through eight targets on the season, no opposing defender has created a contested catch.

The Crimson Tide defense has been stellar under new coordinator Kane Wommack. The 3-3-5 scheme ranks top-20 in nearly every defensive category, including the top national rank in broken tackles allowed.

Weakside linebacker Jihaad Campbell leads the team in tackles, nearly doubling the amount of the second-leading tackler, safety Malachi Moore.

South Florida produced just one touchdown drive in 17 offensive possessions, ending the game with an abnormally low 3.8 overall yards per play.

The bigger issue for Alabama resides with penalties, ranking bottom-10 in penalized yards per game.

Wisconsin Badgers

The Phil Longo offense continues to struggle in the second season under Fickell. Previously one of the fastest offenses in the nation, Wisconsin averages a mid-FBS pace of 27 seconds per play.

The usage of 10 personnel from last season has been limited in 2024, as Wisconsin is opting for double-tight end sets on 38% of its offensive snaps.

Even with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke under center, Wisconsin struggles to create separation and uncontested catches.

Longo was known for explosives through the air and on the ground, but those attributes did not travel with the coach to Madison.

The Badgers are falling in the same position as last season from an EPA perspective, ranking 99th in rush explosives and 124th in pass explosives. The offense has been respectable in the trench from a Line Yards and pass-blocking perspective.

The running backs continue to lack elusiveness, as Chez Mellusi and Tawee Walker each average less than 2.5 yards after first contact.

Fickell's teams always come down to defense, but this season is trending in the wrong direction. The 2-4-5 of coordinator Mike Tressel struggles to defend the run and is ranking outside the top 100 in Havoc. Wisconsin has yet to force a fumble and has just seven tackles for loss against one of the softer two-week schedules in the country.

The strength of the defense has come in coverage grading, holding a rank of 25th in on-target allowed. Safety Hunter Wohler has dominated thus far, creating two pass breakups and limiting opposing passers to a 56 NFL rating when targeted.

Alabama vs Wisconsin Prediction

The best bet in this SEC/Big Ten showdown comes on the side of the ball with two known quantities.

The Alabama defense has been solid under Wommack, swarming at top-20 levels in nearly every category against the enthused Group of Five offenses of South Florida and Western Kentucky.

While Alabama ranks fifth in defensive pass explosive prevention, Wisconsin ranks bottom-10 in creating the explosive pass.

The Badgers rank last nationally in big-play rate, a weighted collection of gains over 20 yards. More importantly, Wisconsin will be one-dimensional when Van Dyke passes against a Crimson Tide defense that sits eighth in on-target allowed.

The Badgers' task of creating methodical drives comes down to the offensive line push. Wisconsin does have a successful rush offense from the trench perspective in Stuff Rate and Line Yards, and it will need every inch against an Alabama defense that's expected to load and blitz the box while maintaining a rate of 10th in Success Rate against the rush.

Even with a successful drive into scoring territory for the Badgers, Alabama's red-zone defense has been in terminator mode. In 10 drives across the Crimson Tide's 40-yard line, opponents have averaged just 1.6 points per trip.

Look for Wommack to solve a moderated Longo offense that now features heavier personnel and a slower tempo.

Alabama has tightened up in the red zone against competent Group of Five offenses with explosive players — an element Wisconsin does not have.

Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Under 16.5 or Better

Saturday, Sept. 14

7:30 p.m. ET

CBS

Colorado Team Total Over 33.5

The clash of the Centennial State lived up to expectations in 2023 as head coach Deion Sanders entered the Rocky Mountain Showdown for the first time. The Buffaloes were riding high after upsets of TCU and Nebraska, looking ahead to Pac-12 play when Colorado State came to Boulder.

Head coach Jay Norvell took a jab at Sanders and the Buffs, adding fuel to an already venomous rivalry. A double-overtime affair served as one of the more thrilling games of the season as the Rams took a one-possession lead into the fourth quarter before ultimately losing.

Fast forward to this season, and both teams find themselves desperate for a win early in the year.

Colorado State was beaten in every facet against Texas, allowing 52 points while never getting a point on the board in Austin during Week 1. The Rams bounced back against Northern Colorado in Week 2, but 17 points from the Bears is a reminder that the defense isn't a finished product.

A different story is brewing for Sanders and the Colorado program. The offensive line continues to struggle at any down and distance, and turmoil is sure to hit the locker room after the latest criticism from the team captain.

Coach Prime is now involved with allegations of telling the band when and when not to play a song after a Buffaloes touchdown, adding drama to a program that was dominated by Nebraska.

Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium will be the site for the Rocky Mountain Showdown, which is sure to provide consumers with a high-quality college football spectacle.

Colorado Buffaloes

Sanders was unhappy with the offensive line personnel from day one as the head coach of Colorado.

After multiple transfer portal cycles and changes at the offensive coordinator position, the offensive line still can't keep defenders off of quarterback Shedeur Sanders. The fourth-year senior has seen 28 pressures on 85 drop backs through two games.

Sanders has yet to commit a turnover-worthy play under pressure. The bulk of the issues come from both starting tackles — Tyler Brown and Jordan Seaton — who have combined to allow 20 of the 28 pressures, along with 16 quarterback hurries.

Colorado has completely abandoned the run, choosing to pass on 63% of its snaps. The Buffaloes are outside the top 100 in numerous offensive categories so far this season, including Offensive Momentum Killer. This statistic derives from offenses that record turnovers, missed field goals, sacks and penalties.

Despite the pressure through two games, Sanders has been an accurate thrower, ranking 28th in on-target rate. Slot receiver Jimmy Horn Jr. and wideout Travis Hunter have put up electric numbers in yards per route run but have become the singular focus of a one-dimensional offense.

Defensive coordinator Robert Livingston hasn't improved the Colorado defense from last season. Havoc, opponent quality drives and on-target rate allowed have all soared outside the top 100 in early rankings.

If there's a shining star in the stat sheet, Colorado ranks 16th in tackle grading thanks to just nine missed tackles on 144 opponent snaps.

The Buffaloes will be expected to stop a number of deep threat options from the Colorado State offense. Coverage and opponent pass explosive numbers indicate it could be a long night for the Colorado defense.

Colorado State Rams

Colorado State enters its third game with a 59% rush rate on offense, a number Norvell has never experienced in his coaching career. The Rams have averaged a 42% rush rate over the previous two seasons, as the coaching staff may have kept an explosive passing attack off the record against Texas and Northern Colorado.

Running back Justin Marshall leads the way with 35 attempts and an average of 3.3 yards after contact.

The heavy rush attack has limited exposure to quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and potentially the best wide receiver in college football, Tory Horton. While Horton has just 11 targets through two games, the future NFL receiver has been busy scoring on special teams.

The big news with Horton is a potential injury. Norvell commented that his groin is sore, but a return against Colorado is hopeful. Without Horton, the Colorado State passing attack loses its ability to create explosives plays.

Slot Dylan Goffney hasn't shown improvement this season, averaging less than 1.1 yards per route run dating back to 2023.

While a wide receiver is never worth more than a point to the spread, the potential loss of Horton turns Colorado State into a rush-first team that puts an under in consideration.

While the Colorado State rush defense is respectful, the Texas passing attack dug the Rams into a hole. The Rams' defense is outside the top 130 in defensive passing success rate and coverage grading, per PFF.

However, safety Jack Howell has thrived in 47 snaps of pass protection with three pass breakups. Floating from the box to the slot and free safety positions, the senior is sure to be assigned to Hunter or Horn when Norvell elects to go man coverage.

College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey's Week 3 Betting Spots for Utah vs. Utah State & MoreRead now

Colorado vs Colorado State Prediction

There are a number of items to handicap the Rocky Mountain Showdown.

First, I have to start with the protection of Sanders. The Rams are 112th in pass rush grading, but more importantly, the question remains around the edge position.

Nearly all of Colorado's offensive line issues have come from the tackle position, putting the focus on Colorado State edge defenders Mukendi Wa-Kalonji and Gabe Kirschke.

Wa-Kalonji has yet to create a pressure in 48 snaps, while Kirschke recorded a sack against Texas and two pressures against Northern Colorado. Colorado State's best pass rusher through two games is James Mitchell, but he should be neutralized against Colorado's competent interior offensive line.

Assuming Sanders' pressure rate takes a dip with no expectations from Colorado State on the edge, the Rams must focus on coverage assignments. Defensive coordinator Freddie Banks runs zone coverage on 75% of opponent passing attempts with a heavy flavor of Cover 3.

Colorado State may be resigned to rushing four, providing minimal blitzes and using three deep defenders to contain explosives. With the bulk of the missed tackles coming from both starting linebackers and safety Henry Blackburn, this could be a long evening for the Colorado State defense.

The biggest question on offense revolves around the health of Horton. After more than 3,400 yards last season, Fowler-Nicolosi has attempted just five passes beyond 20 yards through two games this season.

The Colorado State offense will transform into a rush-first offense without Horton. That would be beneficial news to a Buffaloes defense that's performed much better against the rush than the pass.

The Action Network power ratings call for Colorado to be favorited by a touchdown. If Horton plays, a total that resides between the key numbers of 55 and 59 is sure to take steam north.

Without Horton, Colorado State will run a rush-first offense that averages a slow 30.2 seconds per play.

The better bet is the known quantity on the Colorado side of the ball. Sanders isn't expected to be pressured from the Rams' edge positions, while coverage is a concern for Colorado State.

Pick: Colorado Over 33.5 Team Total

Saturday, Sept. 14

7:30 p.m. ET

FOX

UCF ML -120

The UCF Knights are set to start its second Big 12 campaign with a road trip to Fort Worth against the TCU Horned Frogs.

The Knights generated the second-best transfer portal class in the conference, bringing seasoned playmakers around an explosive backfield on offense.

Head coach Gus Malzahn was excited in Las Vegas during the conference media sessions, indicating this offense has a chance to look like the national title-winning team at Auburn in 2010.

The Knights have yet to break a sweat in 2024, beating New Hampshire and Sam Houston by a combined score of 102-17.

TCU is looking to reclaim the magic that got the Horned Frogs to the national title game two seasons ago.

Head coach Sonny Dykes changed defensive schemes with a new coordinator, producing two victories thus far in the season. The offense was stagnant against Long Island and Stanford, but the 4-2-5 defensive numbers have massively improved from the 2023 version of the 3-3-5 defense.

Amon G. Carter Stadium will see either team's first conference victory, which is crucial in a Big 12 conference where more than half of the teams have a realistic chance of making the championship game.

Read on for my UCF vs TCU prediction for Saturday, Sept. 14.

UCF Knights

In a conference loaded with rush-first attacks from Kansas State and Oklahoma State, UCF is plowing over the competition with high talent in skill positions.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson transferred to Orlando after spending his entire career at an Arkansas program befuddled in turmoil. The sixth-year senior has had great success running a heavy amount of inside zone with a running back tandem that would start at any other program in the Big 12.

The Knights have a heavy tendency toward the run with the Malzahn wildcat, attempting to pass on just 30% of snaps thus far.

Jefferson has met career numbers in a limited 29 passing attempts, but the bread and butter of the offense comes with the inside zone.

Portal additions of Myles Montgomery and Peny Boone at running back would suffice as starters for most teams, but most teams don't have RJ Harvey.

The senior has already tallied six rushing touchdowns while keeping one of the highest rates of elusiveness in FBS. Seven of the running backs' 30 rushing attempts have gone for at least 15 yards, averaging a career-high of 4.7 yards after first contact. UCF ranks in the top 10 in numerous rushing categories, from Line Yards to Success Rate.

The addition of Ted Roof as the new co-defensive coordinator has yet to be tested. Addison Williams and the 3-3-5 defense are currently top-20 in tackling and allowing Quality Drives.

The numbers are untested against the offenses of Sam Houston and New Hampshire, but the returns have been solid in all areas except the opponent pass.

UCF ranks 96th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed after allowing Sam Houston to generate a 52% Success Rate and 8.4 yards per play in Passing Downs.

Although safety Sheldon Arnold II and cornerback Mac McWilliams recorded interceptions against Sam Houston, cornerback Braeden Marshall and strong safety Quadric Bullard pulled two of the lowest coverage grades on the team.

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU was losing to Stanford at halftime in the season opener. With new faces on each side of the ball, the Horned Frogs found consistency in the second half by outscoring the Cardinal, 24-10, to seal the victory.

The new defensive line stuffed Stanford on 16-of-33 rushing attempts, well above the national average of 30%. TCU allowed Stanford to gain just 34% of available yards, limiting trips to the extended red zone.

The upgraded defensive performance lasted through Week 2 in total domination of the Long Island offense. The Sharks never attempted to score through 10 punts, a turnover on downs and an interception just outside the red zone.

Linebacker Johnny Hodges leads the team in tackles, while San Diego State transfer edge Cooper McDonald leads in pressures. Through two games, the defense has carried the water statistically versus an offense that has struggled to run the ball or maintain blocks in passing attempts.

Josh Hoover continues to be the signal-caller for the Frogs, tallying four touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Hoover has yet to improve accuracy issues from a season ago, ranking 67th in on-target rate.

With an average depth of target sinking to 7.1 yards, the bulk of the production has come from receivers Savion Williams and Jack Bech. Each target is well over 2.6 yards per route run through a combined 34 targets.

Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles runs a balanced offense, but inside and outside zone read option haven't had any success in creating chunk plays. TCU ranks 46th in run blocking, but the number falls outside of the top 75 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate.

Center James Brockermeyer and left tackle Bless Harris have provided two of the lowest run-blocking grades in the offensive line two-deep depth chart.

Against the inferior rush defenses of Long Island and Stanford, the Horned Frogs averaged 6.2 yards to gain on third-down attempts.

UCF vs TCU Prediction

The handicap for this Big 12 opener is based on two aspects: UCF's ability to run the ball and TCU's ability to pass downfield.

The Knights will field one of the most vicious rushing attacks in Power 4 football, as highlighted by Harvey. The Horned Frogs have only seen a dozen snaps of inside zone read so far this season, but the numbers against Stanford may indicate explosives are coming.

The Cardinal were stuffed on nearly half of their attempts, but in the 17 attempts that were not, Stanford averaged 4.7 yards per attempt.

Quarterback Ashton Daniels averaged 5.1 yards on 17 rushing attempts while gaining 42 yards after first contact against the TCU defensive front.

With an even split of designed yards versus scramble, the TCU interior struggled to contain a running quarterback. Edge Nana Osafo-Mensah and interior tackles Markis Deal and Caleb Fox have produced poor run defense grades, producing just four tackles in a combined 102 snaps.

The UCF offense is expected to create first downs and explosives, but the Knights' secondary will be under a microscope against Hoover and his favorite targets.

Brandon Adams leads the team in forced incompletions, while McWilliams and Arnold are the two highest-graded coverage defenders on the team.

UCF ranks 46th in on-target rate allowed, indicating there could be success in limiting a TCU offense that has no success in creating drives through the rush.

The Knights run a strict Cover 3 defense against the opposing pass, as Hoover continues to post pedestrian numbers and no explosives against secondaries that use this specific coverage.

Action Network's projection makes UCF a favorite of six points on the road in Fort Worth.

TCU has had no success against early competition in establishing the run, thanks to an underperforming offensive line.

Look for Jefferson and Harvey to dominate the line of scrimmage with an inside zone read — an area the Frogs have struggled to defend between the tackles.

Pick: UCF ML (-125 · Play to -3)

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