NCAAF Week 7 Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson’s Top College Football Bets for Saturday, October 12

NCAAF Week 7 Picks, Predictions: Collin Wilson's Top Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	3:30 p.m.	Texas TT Over 31.5 · Texas -14
	7:30 p.m.	Oregon +3.5 · 4 Props
	10:15 p.m.	Over 56.5 · First-Half Over 27.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Week 7 of the college football season is a big one.

No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Oregon highlights the slate, but that's far from the only game generating substantial interest on Saturday's schedule.

In addition to Buckeyes vs. Ducks, we have the Red River Rivalry between No. 1 Texas and No. 18 Oklahoma live from Dallas, along with another top-20 game in No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 15 LSU — and that's not even mentioning a cross-country Big Ten battle between No. 4 Penn State and USC.

My Week 7 Action Network betting card features two of those games — Ohio State vs. Oregon and Texas vs. Oklahoma — in addition to a crucial Big 12 matchup between No. 18 Kansas State and Colorado.

So, let's dive into my college football picks and predictions for Week 7's monster slate below.

Saturday, Oct. 12

3:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Texas Team Total Over 31.5 · Texas -14

Nearly 124 years ago, the Texas Longhorns (5-0, 1-0 SEC) and Oklahoma Sooners (4-1, 1-4) stepped on the field in Austin, Texas to start one of the biggest rivalries in college football history.

Now, on Saturday, Oct. 12, they meet for the first time as members of the SEC at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Longhorns lead the series 63-51-5 all-time, also owning the longest winning streak in the series at 8. While history favors Texas, the Sooners have won seven of the past nine games in Cotton Bowl Stadium.

Despite the 4-1 start for the Sooners, the 2024 season has been a struggle in Norman.

Oklahoma has seen an inexperienced offensive line trickle into inefficient quarterback play. A change to a freshman signal-caller breathed life into a recent Auburn victory, but health has been a concern as the skill positions each week.

Head coach Brent Venables did not have a positive outlook on the injury concerns for the Sooners in his weekly press conference.

Texas, meanwhile, enters the rivalry game undefeated, with a road win over a top-10 team in Michigan in Week 2.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to flex a roster that goes two-deep at every position, but injury concerns at quarterback should be alleviated when the Longhorns hit the field Saturday.

Texas enters the game as a -14 favorite with a total of 50.5, but there's extra intrigue considering Texas has Georgia on deck.

Let's dive into my Texas vs. Oklahoma predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.

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Texas Longhorns

Texas sits on a strength of schedule rank of 101st, as a road win at Michigan serves as the best data point.

While the Longhorns boast the top pass-blocking unit in the nation, the Wolverines are also ranked as the top defensive pass-rush unit, per PFF.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers was hardly under duress during the game with Michigan logging a single sack on just 13 defensive pressures.

Ewers was flawless in 10 passing attempts with a crowded pocket, completing six passes with a touchdown and zero mistakes.

Ewers will return to action for Texas, per Sarkisian, but any rustiness or inefficiency could lead to an appearance by the nation's best backup quarterback in Arch Manning.

Targets have been versatile for the Horns. Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden lead the team in receptions with an even split of snaps in the slot and wideout while displaying explosive numbers in yards per route run.

If there's an area of concern on offense, it's the offensive line's run blocking.

Texas ranks 72nd in Offensive Line Yards versus a top-20 mark in Success Rate, indicating that running backs Jaydon Blue, Jerrick Gibson and Quintrevion Wisner have gone above expectations in terms of highlight yards.

On the other side, the Longhorns haven't faced an offense inside the top 60 of SP+ yet. The two best offenses have come from Michigan and Mississippi State, each testing different units of Texas' defense.

The Wolverines posted a high 59% Success Rate in 22 rushing attempts but failed to produce any explosive runs. There's an expectation that Texas will see plenty of zone-read attempts from Oklahoma just as it did against Michigan.

While the Wolverines didn't post any explosives, Texas failed to stuff them at a national average level.

The Bulldogs, meanwhile, attempted 29 passes in Week 6 against Texas, posting a horrible 28% Success Rate. Quarterback Michael Van Buren averaged 3.4 yards per play on pass plays, generating two explosives against the Longhorns.

Only one of the Bulldogs' 11 offensive possessions were considered explosive — defined as averaging 10 yards per play. Nonetheless, Texas more than doubled the Bulldogs in overall yards per play behind the offensive arsenal led by Manning.

Oklahoma Sooners

With two weeks to get healthy for the rivalry game of the season, Venables had a few somber updates on the roster.

The wide receiver unit will continue to have a number of absences against Texas.

Jalil Farooq has the highest chance of playing after suffering a broken foot, but he just came out of his boot for the first time this week.

However, Deion Burks continues to deal with a soft tissue injury that has not been resolved, and Andrel Anthony has missed additional practices after a setback that required surgery. Additionally, Nic Anderson is expected to miss Red River, leaving Oklahoma depleted at the wide receiver position.

Michael Hawkins Jr. will continue to lead the offense at quarterback after taking over against Tennessee in Week 4.

The freshman has been the leading rusher on the team over the past two games, completing just 10-of-15 passes for no touchdowns in a victory over Auburn in Week 5.

The passing game has been tepid with no experienced targets, averaging a horrifically long time to throw at 3.4 seconds. Hawkins' depth has been limited, throwing over 20 yards only three times in 56 dropbacks.

Success Rate continues to be an issue for the Oklahoma offense, ranking 123rd in both pass and rush efficiency.

The Oklahoma defense was responsible for keeping the Tennessee game respectable despite a non-cover. The Volunteers were held without a methodical drive, executing an explosive drive on just two of their 17 possessions.

The high-powered Vols offense never got out of second gear against the Sooners, as Tennessee hit just three explosive passes the entire evening.

Defensive Havoc was the primary reason for the win over Auburn, as the Sooners now rank 17th nationally in that area. A 63-yard Kip Lewis pick six late in the fourth quarter sealed the victory over the Tigers.

Texas vs. Oklahoma Pick

A simple question I asked Sarkisian at SEC Media Days brought an answer that has been a crucial handicap for the Longhorns this season.

I asked Sark why there was a severe drop-off in red-zone efficiency. Texas had moved from fourth in red-zone efficiency during Sarkisian's first year in 2021 to 120th in 2023. The head coach indicated that the loss of Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson had a great impact on play-calling at the goal line.

A follow-up question asked Sarkisian if there are players to fill those shoes.

"We have about two dozen candidates," Sarkisian responded.

He has proven himself correct, as Texas ranks fourth nationally in red-zone touchdown efficiency.

Texas has entered the red zone 27 times this season, resulting in one field goal and 24 touchdowns. Michigan ranks as the 12th-best defense nationally, per SP+, but the Longhorns averaged a high 4.5 points on possessions that crossed the 40-yard line.

Twelve different players have logged a touchdown for the Horns, with nine players recording at least two touchdowns.

Oklahoma doesn't have enough data points to provide a stable answer to red-zone efficiency, as opponents have crossed the 20-yard line on just 10 possessions with eight scores as a result. Only 17-of-68 opponent drives have entered the Sooners' extended red zone, resulting in an average of 3.1 points per trip.

Texas will be in scoring position often considering the Sooners' results against Auburn. The Tigers created explosive drives at a rate that was double the national average, allowing eight of Auburn's 12 possessions to rack up two first downs.

Oklahoma has struggled in the secondary with a Defensive Passing Success Rate and coverage grade outside the top 65. The Sooners run exclusively Cover 3 and quarters, two schemes Texas quarterbacks have seen the most in 2024.

The Longhorns have had big success against those coverages, including a 61% Success Rate against Cover 3. Ewers dominated Cover 3 in 253 plays last season, averaging a 58% Success Rate while creating an explosive play on one of every four passing attempts.

Oklahoma is expected to struggle on the offensive side of the ball despite Texas' poor strength of schedule.

The Michigan game provided the experience the Longhorns needed against the inside zone read of Hawkins and running back Jovantae Barnes. While Taylor Tatum has come on for the Sooners, there's no chance of a breakaway run for Barnes at 2.9 yards after first contact.

Without healthy targets at wideout or the slot for Oklahoma, Hawkins is expected to struggle in passing downs where the Sooners rank 128th in Success Rate.

Action Network's betting power ratings call for Texas to be favored by two touchdowns at a neutral site like the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

A projected total of 59 points is derived from tempo and plenty of mathematics around drive and scoring efficiency. There's enough to believe that these two offenses will look to speed the defenses up, as both average just over 25 seconds per play.

Look for Texas' red-zone touchdown efficiency to play a large factor at Red River, while exercising a half-point buy on the side to remove any backdoor activity for Oklahoma.

Pick: Texas Team Total Over 31.5 · Texas -14 (-125 or Better)

Saturday, Oct. 12

7:30 p.m. ET

NBC

Oregon +3.5 · 4 Props

The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Eugene to take on the No. 3 Oregon Ducks on Saturday, Oct. 12, at 7:30 p.m. on NBC.

But before we dive into the game, we have to talk about how we got to this monumental clash between one of the Big Ten's most successful members and the Big Ten's newest member.

Michigan and Ohio State have owned the podium for the conference throughout recent history, but the addition of the Oregon Ducks has created more depth to the top of the Big Ten.

Upon arriving at Big Ten Media Days in Indianapolis for the first time, "Puddles" let the conference know that the Ducks are contenders to challenge not just for the Big Ten title but the national title.

Oregon rolled into Columbus as two-touchdown underdogs before burying Ohio State early in the 2021 season, but a change in regime brought current head coach Dan Lanning to Eugene in 2022.

Even though Oregon is the newest member of the Big Ten, there's plenty of familiarity with the coaching staffs. Buckeyes offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is a former head coach of the Ducks, establishing a menacing ground attack that got Oregon to the national title game in 2011.

The hiring of Kelly in Columbus sent a wave of change to Eugene, as running backs coach Carlos Locklyn left Oregon to take on the same role with Ohio State during the spring.

This will be the biggest game in Autzen Stadium history; it has never seen a matchup between top-three teams.

The stakes could not be any higher, as the winner is expected to take the top spot in the AP Top 25 Poll and pole position in the Big Ten Conference.

Let's dive into my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12 below.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day was clear on who the winner will be: the team that can run and protect the football.

The Buckeyes have one of the softer strength of schedules in the nation, coming in at 109th after games against Iowa, Michigan State, Marshall and a couple of MAC teams.

The data point in that group should be Iowa, which owns the second-best defense, per SP+. The Hawkeyes defense is elite against the pass but still falls within the top 30 in Line Yards.

Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson posted double-digit rushing attempts against Iowa, each averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry. The Buckeyes had 11 third-down attempts with a short average distance of 4.7 yards to go thanks to the rushing attack.

Mixing inside and outside zone read, Ohio State dominated on the ground to the tune of a 66% Success Rate while being stuffed on a low 8-of-39 attempts. If there was any issue with the running game, Iowa allowed just one rushing attempt to clear 20 yards.

The Buckeyes also amped up the designed rush attempts from quarterback Will Howard. The former Kansas State signal-caller rushed 212 times for the Wildcats in a system that called for multiple running backs and quarterback keepers.

However, Howard had attempted only 19 designed runs for the Buckeyes, but that number jumped up against Iowa with six rushes for 26 yards.

The biggest X-factor for the Ohio State offense is its ability to stay in standard downs during zone-read attempts for Howard.

On the other side of the ball, there could be minor tweaks by defensive coordinator Jim Knowles and his 4-2-5 defense.

Ohio State has maintained a blitz rate of just under 30% but has not run a single play in Cover 0. The Buckeyes have often used Cover 0 in their biggest games to apply pressure to opposing quarterbacks.

The schedule may have played a factor in what the Buckeyes have shown so far, as Marshall has been the highest-ranked offense they've faced.

Ohio State doesn't have any holes in the defensive numbers, taking the top spot nationally in Quality Drives, Finishing Drives and Passing Downs Success Rate.

The Ducks' offensive tackles must deal with edge Jack Sawyer, who lands in the top 25 of PFF's individual pass-rush productivity rankings.

Oregon Ducks

During his weekly press conference, Lanning mentioned a change in play-calling and communication because of the familiarity of the coaching staffs.

Outside of the communication on offense, Oregon must center on the issues with quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

The former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback has logged three red-zone interceptions in the last two games against Michigan State and UCLA. Gabriel's mistakes have been minimal to this point, logging only four turnover-worthy plays.

In the toughest games of the season, the sixth- year quarterback saw a skyrocketing rate of big-time throws.

The struggles for the Ducks offense have come in two separate areas: creating explosives and Finishing Drives.

Oregon sits outside the top 90 in both Rush and Pass EPA, but with Gabriel's average depth of target below seven yards, offensive coordinator Will Stein could be holding plenty off film.

Stein's offense has stayed consistent on the ground despite the change in quarterback from Bo Nix to Gabriel, running a heavy amount of inside and outside zone read.

However, despite facing against one of the easier schedules of defenses, Oregon ranks just 93rd in red-zone efficiency.

Performance in scoring position is also an issue for a defense that ranks outside the top 100. In 17 possessions that crossed the Ducks' 40-yard line, opponents are averaging 4.2 points per trip.

Line Yards have been an issue against heavy rush offenses such as Oregon State. The Beavers dominated the trench, racking up a 57% Success Rate on 30 carries while getting stuffed on only five attempts.

Those numbers were even higher against Heisman front-runner Ashton Jeanty of Boise State in a game the Ducks narrowly won in Week 2. With red-zone and defensive rush numbers taking a dip, Oregon has lived on Defensive Havoc.

Edge Jordan Burch and defensive tackle Derrick Harmon have been in frenzy mode all season, combining for 46 pressures and 35 quarterback hurries through five games.

The Ducks rank second nationally in Havoc, with the biggest contribution coming from the secondary. Oregon ranks second of all FBS team in passes defensed, a measurement of pass breakups and interceptions.

Four individual defenders have recorded interceptions, while 11 defenders have recorded a pass breakup. The biggest contributor is cornerback Jabbar Muhammad. After transferring from Washington following last year's national title run, Muhammad has allowed just 12-of-26 targets to be caught.

Ohio State vs. Oregon Pick

The heavyweight fight from Autzen Stadium has dozens of variables that will determine the outcome of the game.

The prior experience and knowledge of the Ohio State coaching staff could play a factor in giving the Buckeyes an edge. Day acknowledged that there are similarities between the current Oregon defense versus the Georgia scheme ran with Lanning and Kirby Smart for a number of years.

The Buckeyes saw the Lanning footprint in the 2022 College Football Playoff, as quarterback CJ Stroud generated more than 40 points.

The familiarity doesn't end there, though, as the Buckeyes are familiar with one of Oregon's biggest Havoc creators in Harmon. The defensive interior started for Michigan State last season and was limited to a single pressure and three tackles in 49 snaps against Ohio State.

Offensively, Kelly called the plays for UCLA in a loss to Oregon in 2022. The Bruins dominated Lanning's defense on the ground, generating 6.2 yards per play and a 67% Success Rate during rushing attempts.

Kelly ultimately lost that battle because of poor defense, but the offensive game plan was effective.

There's an expectation that Ohio State will have plenty of success with inside zone read calls against Oregon's run defense.

The Ducks were shredded by Boise State and a host of other offenses by the run concept, producing a low 44% Success Rate with a negative EPA per Play.

The strength of the Oregon defense comes in the back seven, centering on one of the few weaknesses with Howard's passing game dating back to Kansas State.

Ohio State is expected to create plenty of ground explosives with Henderson and Judkins, setting up scoring opportunities against a Ducks defense that has been steamrolled in the extended red zone.

The narrative around Oregon's offense is the poor numbers from an explosiveness standpoint. Gabriel is averaging his lowest average depth of target thanks to a heavy amount of hitch and wide receiver screens through the first six weeks of play.

Stein must call for passes downfield passing from Gabriel, as Nix lost to Washington twice last season with an average depth of target at 6.1 yards.

The biggest key to avoiding turnover-worthy plays from a Buckeyes defense that will send pressure and Cover 0 is to get Gabriel on the move through zone read.

Gabriel had his number called in rushing attempts on more than 60 plays at Oklahoma a year ago, as the ability to create missed tackles and generate explosives has been a part of the quarterback's DNA since 2019 at UCF.

Quarterback runs could also open holes for one of the best running backs in the nation in Jordan James. Oregon has created an explosive run on 11-of-31 rushing attempts with James using power run concepts.

The junior has already created 20 rushes of at least 10 yards while racking up 25 missed tackles on 88 attempts. More importantly, Ohio State has seen 17 rushing attempts using power this season, posting a dreadful 35% Success Rate with a large negative EPA.

Both Oregon and Ohio State have a path through the ground game to get into scoring position.

Howard should be limited against an Oregon pass defense that's one of the best in the nation in creating contested catches.

Gabriel should see plenty of success moving the pocket in RPO situations, but he may be pressured in passing attempts until a ground game is established.

Rushing prop overs should be considered for both Will Howard and Dillon Gabriel, while a Jordan James anytime touchdown should also be in play.

Our Action Network Power Ratings call for this game to be exactly where the market has stalled on the side, with Ohio State favored by a field goal in Autzen.

The last number to take on Oregon pregame is +3.5.

Keep live wagers in mind when looking to get both sides, as Day ranks 32nd in the "Middle 8" versus 90th for Lanning.

The projected total for this game is inflated because of the soft strength of schedule played by both teams up to this point. Expect each team to feel each other out on the ground, setting up play-action and moving pockets in the second half.

Collin Wilson's Ohio State vs. Oregon Bets

• Oregon +3.5
• First Quarter Under 10.5
• Jordan James Over 73.5 Rushing Yards
• Will Howard Over 17 Rushing Yards
• Dillon Gabriel Anytime TD (+210)

Saturday, Oct. 12

10:15 p.m. ET

ESPN

Over 56.5 · First-Half Over 27.5

The Kansas State Wildcats (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) head to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes (4-1, 2-0) in a late-night Big 12 battle on Saturday, Oct. 12. The game is set to kick off at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

A new dimension has created a different outlook for the Buffaloes.

A 48-21 victory over Central Florida in Week 5 sent the Buffaloes to the top of the Big 12 standings with the second half of the schedule on deck.

Head coach Deion Sanders will find out where Colorado stands when going against a program that sets the bar in the Big 12 in Kansas State.

Head coach Chris Klieman doesn't have near the same level of comfort in the conference standings as his Week 7 opponent. Kansas State was demolished in Week 4 during a road trip to Provo, losing to BYU by 29 points.

Klieman's squad bounced back with a 42-20 rout of Oklahoma State before the bye week, creating this colossal conference showdown at Folsom Field.

Kansas State enters as a -3.5 favorite with a total of 56.5.

Let's break down my Kansas State vs. Colorado predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.

Kansas State Wildcats

Klieman relayed the concerns of watching Colorado on tape, specifically how to contain and force the opposing quarterback into mistakes.

Kansas State has been impuissant when it comes to Defensive Havoc, ranking in the middle of all FBS teams. The Wildcats have been unable to disrupt opponent passing attempts through pass breakups, ranking 111th in passes defensed.

Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman runs a heavy amount of quarters coverage, a scheme designed to create four deep zones to combat pass-heavy offenses. Kansas State has middling efficiency using the coverage, ranking 91st per PFF grading.

While the pass defense has been soft, Kansas State has been terrific against the rush. The 3-3-5 scheme had success stopping Ollie Gordon, stuffing Oklahoma State above the national average while allowing just two explosive runs.

Defending the zone read has had mixed results, with more success against outside zone than inside zone.

If there's a positive that has carried the Kansas State defense it's a top-15 rank in Finishing Drives that derives from allowing more field goals than touchdowns in the red zone.

Kansas State continues to be a high rush explosive offense, led by quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens.

Offensive coordinator Conor Riley was promoted this past offseason, keeping the multi-run concept offensive play calling intact. Through five games, the Wildcats have run at least 25 plays of inside zone, power, counter and man concepts.

Johnson has been one of the best running quarterbacks in the conference, particularly in designed rush attempts that have produced 220 yards and five explosives. Johnson is at his most dangerous when targets aren't available and he leaves the pocket.

Johnson has struggled in the passing game, generating a turnover-worthy play in every game this season.

The Kansas State offensive line has allowed 46 pressures on 142 dropbacks, leading Johnson to no big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays.

Colorado Buffaloes

The biggest surprise of Colorado's season came via a rushing attack that led the way in an upset victory in Orlando.

Across 27 rushing attempts, the Buffaloes had a 60% Success Rate and averaged 5.2 yards per play against a UCF team that ranks third nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.

Isaiah Augustave generated an average of 10 yards per carry through four inside zone read attempts. Running backs Dallan Hayden and Micah Welch each logged double-digit rushing attempts.

The rushing attack is a new development for Colorado, but this is still a pass-first team led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders.

A 60% pass rate and a low rank in efficiency and Quality Drives creates plenty of three-and-outs for Colorado's offense.

The advanced numbers show middling ranks in passing analytics, but the numbers for Sanders are some of the best in the nation. The soon-to-be NFL Draft pick has 15 big-time throws and has lowered his turnover-worthy play rate to less than 1%.

Heisman candidate Travis Hunter continues to be the biggest weapon for Sanders, taking in the most targets (54) and the highest yards per route run (2.6).

LaJohntay Wester has been critical out of the slot in providing first downs. More importantly, Wester and Hunter have combined to catch 7-of-11 targets that were contested by opposing secondaries.

The offensive rushing attack isn't the only area in which Colorado has improved.

The defense has become one of the best at keeping opponents from scoring and boasts one of the highest tackling grades in the nation.

The Buffaloes still allow plenty of explosives and struggle to create a pass rush, but opponents are averaging just 2.7 points in 30 possessions in extended red zone.

Defensive coordinator Robert Livingston has preached fundamentals, as Colorado is the 10th-best defense in creating "stops" — a PFF metric that grades a complete failure by the offense.

Stuckey's Week 7 NCAAF Bets for Iowa vs Washington, LSU vs Ole Miss, MoreRead now

Kansas State vs. Colorado Pick

Will Kansas State make any adjustments after losing in a hostile Big 12 prime-time environment against BYU? The Wildcats uncharacteristically turned the ball over and played sloppy special teams but now travel to Boulder off a bye week.

The biggest issue for Kansas State is the "bend-don't-break" nature of its defense against a Colorado offense that relies on busted plays to create scores.

The Buffaloes attacked UCF with inside zone read, a run concept Kansas State has had minimal success defending.

Ultimately, Kansas State has struggled to defend the slot, as Marques Sigle has failed to create a pass breakup in 159 coverage snaps. Cornerbacks Jacob Parrish and Keenan Garber will be responsible for Hunter but have allowed 34-of-51 targets to be caught.

Kansas State will counter with a heavy rush attack that uses multiple run concepts. There's one particular run concept the Buffaloes have struggled with, as man blocking has allowed opponents to produce a 60% Success Rate and a high number of explosives.

The Wildcats are a top-20 rush offense in terms of explosives and efficiency. There may be relief for Johnson and the passing attack against Colorado, as the Buffaloes are 116th in pass-rush grading.

Both offenses have schematic advantages to put the ball into scoring position. Kansas State should see no resistance with a ground attack using run concepts that have gashed Colorado. Meanwhile, Sanders' aerial attack won't face much of a defense.

Pick: Over 56.5 · First-Half Over 27.5

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