Real college football games will be played this week, which can only mean one thing: We're back.
So, why wait until the weekend to dive into Saturday's four-game FBS slate? Instead, I'm looking now at key matchup advantages in the Florida State vs. Georgia Tech and SMU vs. Nevada games.
In the first game of the season, the Seminoles will have a big advantage over Yellow Jackets up front. Then, when the Mustangs take on the Wolf Pack on Saturday night, get ready for some defense.
Check out both of my early college football picks for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech and SMU vs. Nevada below.
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -455 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +345 |
Florida State Offensive Line Snaps: 91% · Georgia Tech Pressures: 50%
For the first time since 2016, the ACC will start the conference season offshore. In that game, Georgia Tech narrowly defeated Boston College, 17-14.
Now, the Yellow Jackets are set to return to Aviva Stadium for the fifth-ever college football game in the building, with the previous four games averaging 48.8 points since 2012.
Florida State enters the 2024 season after an undefeated regular season, returning more than 91% of offensive line snaps and nearly 200 starts.
Protecting transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei will be paramount for the Seminoles offense. The former Clemson and Oregon State signal-caller has a skyrocketing turnover-worthy play rate and an adjusted completion rate drop of 25% with a crowded pocket.
Blindside tackle Darius Washington enters his senior season with 2,378 career snaps and graded out as the 12th-best pass-blocking tackle in FBS last season. Center Maurice Smith is also a former third-team and honorable-mention All-ACC team member.
Not only is there experience and talent on the offensive line, but Georgia Tech will also be debuting a new defensive coordinator in this game.
Tyler Santucci will call plays on the defensive side of the ball for the first time in this matchup. After years of coaching under Mike Elko at Texas A&M and Duke, expect Santucci to continue running an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme.
The bigger question is the talent in the Yellow Jackets' front seven. Tech made plenty of moves in the transfer portal to create depth. The new defense is expected to eliminate explosive passes, as three Power Four transfers will join interior players Makius Scott and Zeek Biggers. However, no one on this defensive front graded out above average in pass rush.
The two starting linebackers from a season ago have also been replaced with transfers.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings make this game Seminoles -19.5 in Aviva Stadium. There has been a push on Georgia Tech in the market down to +11, a move that sets up a comeback on the Seminoles after the Yellow Jackets sat at +14 earlier this summer.
While the Seminoles are most certainly the play, there could be injuries and disciplinary first-half suspensions that will move the market. Florida State has a massive advantage in the trench and will be a play at -11 or better.
Pick: Florida State -11
SMU vs. Nevada Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -2800 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +1300 |
SMU Receiving Yards: 97% · Nevada Passes Defensed: 78%
There's no shortage of love in the market for SMU as it begins its ACC journey. The Mustangs have seen their odds to win the conference shrink with a steaming win total over throughout the summer.
The excitement stems from a number of reasons, including defensive performance in 2023, one of the highest TARP ratings in the country and a soft strength of schedule.
For Nevada, new head coach Jeff Choate comes in with a defensive background and takes over with a neutral rating in terms of roster experience.
While the overall experience numbers are mid-FBS, the secondary does return more than 75% of pass breakups and pressures. Cornerback KK Meier, nickel Caine Savage, linebacker Drue Watts and safety Aedan Seiuli come back after combining for 13 pass breakups a season ago.
The Wolf Pack fielded one of the worst defenses in the nation last year with plenty of coverage analytics sitting in the bottom 10.
However, Nevada found success when it came to disrupting easy catch-and-throw attempts by opponents. Nevada finished 92nd in on-target rate allowed, so this defense should have a pulse against the explosive Mustangs.
Pace is also a key question on the Nevada side. Coordinator Matt Lubick comes over from Kansas after two seasons as an analyst. The Wolf Pack are expected to adopt Andy Kotelnicki's play style from Kansas, presenting plenty of pre-snap motion and rushing attempts from all skill positions.
Kansas finished last season with a consistent tempo year over year, ranking 112th at 29.5 seconds per play. The combination of Sean Dollars and Boston College transfer Pat Garwo III will keep the Nevada attack ground-based.
SMU has never been an over team on the road under head coach Rhett Lashlee, going under in eight of its 13 road games since 2022. The Mustangs also present a solid defensive front that should excel in stopping Nevada's ground attack.
However, the market is steaming higher in the totals department, with the number currently situated between two of the biggest key numbers in 55 and 59.
Look for this total to continue to steam. A buy-back and official play will be made once it reaches 59.
Pick: Under 57.5 (Wait for 59)
