Week 0 is in the books, which means we have an onslaught of college football headed our way.
From Thursday through Monday, there are 96 games featuring FBS teams. With so many games on tap, it's worth taking a look at specific matchups and placing an early wager if the opportunity calls for it.
I broke down four games for college football Week 1, including TCU vs. Stanford, Eastern Michigan vs. UMass, Ohio vs. Syracuse and Boise State vs. Georgia Southern.
Whether it's in the trenches or in the aerial attack, each matchup features one team that holds a distinct advantage over the other, which can be exploited when it comes to the betting market.
Check out all four college football picks and predictions for Week 1 below.
TCU vs. Stanford
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | -360 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | +280 |
TCU 38% Pass Breakups · Stanford 76% Receiving Yards
Head coach Troy Taylor will head into Year 2 at Stanford with one of the highest numbers of roster experience in the country.
Every counting statistic on defense, including tackles and pressures, returns at least 77% of the total from 2023, while offensive line snaps and passing yards top out above 98%.
Quarterback Ashton Daniels returns to an offense that threw everything and the kitchen sink at opponents. Taylor called as many trick plays as zone-read concepts in the ground attack.
Ashton Daniels pulls off the trick play for his first career TD pass 😳
pic.twitter.com/5pvPe0UAVL— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) September 2, 2023
Daniels will get his top three targets back in slot Tiger Bachmeier, wideout Elic Ayomanor and tight end Sam Roush.
While the Stanford rushing attack does take a hit in the experience department, it's the passing attack that should have the most success against a refreshed TCU defense.
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes fired Joe Gillespie at the end of 2023, hiring former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos to replace him.
The move signified a personnel change from a 3-3-5 to a 4-2-5 front, meaning the Horned Frogs would be expected to find more success against the run.
The TCU defensive line was already stretched thin in experience before interior Damonic Williams committed to Oklahoma through the transfer portal.
While two starters return to the Horned Frogs secondary, the remaining depth chart is loaded with transfers from Old Dominion, Austin Peay and Tulsa.
Pick: Stanford +8
Eastern Michigan vs. UMass
| Eastern Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -120 |
Eastern Michigan Pressures 21% · UMass Passing Yards 66%
A revenge spot presents itself in the first weekend of the 2024 season, as Eastern Michigan will travel to Amherst a season after defeating UMass by two.
The Minutemen defense prevented the Eagles offense from executing a single methodical drive, stuffing nearly half of the 24 rushing attempts. UMass gained more available yards while tripling the number of drives that had two-plus first downs over Eastern Michigan.
The difference came in four UMass turnovers, along with the fact that Eastern Michigan gained 185 hidden yards from a net yardage look at special teams plays.
Head coach Don Brown enters his third season at UMass, generating the most experience on offense during his short tenure.
Quarterback Taisun Phommachanh enters his sixth season after taking more than 250 dropbacks last season and creating a nearly even ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
There will be familiarity on the offense, as senior Anthony Simpson returns 97 targets and an explosive 2.5 yards per route run. The combination could spell trouble for an Eastern Michigan team that continues to lose its talent to the portal.
EMU head coach Chris Creighton loses major contributors at safety and cornerback. With those losses, the Eagles are expected to field one of the worst secondaries in the MAC.
Both Quentavius Scandrett and Daiquan White return, but neither graded within the top seven of all Eastern Michigan defenders in coverage grading in 2023.
Pick: UMass ML -135
Ohio vs. Syracuse
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Syracuse Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -950 |
Ohio 24% Passes Defensed · Syracuse 95% Receiving Yards
The final tally on Ohio's transfer portal movement came in at 26 departures against 21 incoming players. Nearly every player with an impact on the box score has moved on from Athens, including defensive lineman Rayyan Buell to Colorado, quarterback Kurtis Rourke to Indiana and cornerback Torrie Cox Jr. to Illinois.
Ohio took the biggest losses in the post-spring TARP update, specifically returning less than 25% of all pass breakups from 2023.
The excitement around Syracuse football started with the hire of new head coach Fran Brown. The former Georgia and Rutgers defensive assistant was quick to bring Jeff Nixon as running backs coach and offensive coordinator, a position he held for various teams in the NFL.
While the expectation is that the Orange maintain a 60% rushing rate, there are multiple weapons for Ohio State transfer quarterback Kyle McCord.
Tight end Oronde Gadsden II will look to return to his 2022 form when he recorded nearly 1,000 receiving yards and 2.3 yards per route run.
The big win from the transfer portal comes from Colorado State, as Justus Ross-Simmons brings elite speed as a home-run hitter with every target from McCord.
wide open
Justus Ross-Simmons is the lone bright spot for CSU tonight. Balling out, breaking out. pic.twitter.com/vIgcv0Unuv
— Liam Blutman (@Blutman27) September 3, 2023
Ohio brought in 21 players through the portal, with some candidates expected to start in the secondary.
Senior Mike Mack didn't play last year but previously appeared in 20 games for Air Force. Fifth-year senior Roman Parodie is expected to transition to a starting cornerback role after seeing 112 opponent targets since 2020. Safety Adonis Williams Jr. enters his third season with the Bobcats, racking up a grand total of two pass breakups in 568 career coverage snaps.
While there are plenty of seniors on the depth chart, most have never started or played a significant amount of snaps.
Pick: Syracuse -17
Boise State vs. Georgia Southern
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -115 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | -490 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -105 | 57.5 -105o / -115u | +365 |
Boise State Pressures 94% · Georgia Southern Offensive Line Snaps 42%
The big news out of Boise State's fall camp is the selection of Maddux Madsen at quarterback over USC transfer Malachi Nelson.
While the Broncos offense should be the best in the Group of Five under offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, the advantages on defense are the primary driver for a wager in Week 1.
Head coach Spencer Danielson promoted from within for the coordinator job, giving Erik Chinander a chance to improve on a tackling rank of 129th.
The strength of the Broncos defense comes in its ability to rattle opposing quarterbacks. Boise State finished top-20 nationally in sacks and now returns more than 90% of pressures to the two-deep depth chart.
Edge Ahmed Hassanein and linebacker Andrew Simpson come back, bringing a massive 86 pressures from a season ago. Defensive tackle Braxton Fely also returns to the middle of the line after creating 24 quarterback hurries in 2023.
Havoc was a staple down the stretch of the conference schedule a season ago, and that should continue in 2024.
Georgia Southern may not be equipped in the trench to handle Boise State in Week 1. The Eagles return just two starters who hold 50 career starts. Both tackle positions were up for grabs during fall camp, meaning reserves or inexperienced portal additions will likely fill the gaps.
Georgia Southern is also under a new offensive line coach in Zach Lankford, losing its previous coach who bridged the transition from the triple option to the spread.
The Action Network projection on the game calls for Boise State by 15 points, but a couple of factors will send a wager toward the first half.
The weather is expected to touch 90 degrees with severe humidity at 70%, a potential full-game factor for a Boise roster that may not be prepared for the stickiness of the south.
There's also a bit of a look-ahead spot for the Broncos, as Danielson's team has a Sept. 7 trip to Eugene to take on the Oregon Ducks.
Pick: Boise State 1H -8 or Better
