We were an overtime (plus a number of dropped interceptions) away from a 7-1 Week 10, but no real complaints. That's now in the past, so it's onto the next as always.
For Week 11, I have highlighted my 13 favorite spots that I had circled for Saturday's slate, which will almost certainly be my biggest card of the season.
Keep in mind the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, I still have to factor in how much value the number holds compared to my projections. That's where it all starts. Matchups also matter.
Lines may be from the time of writing earlier in the week, so I'll always log what I bet in the Action App and have also included the number I would bet it to for those who will read later in the week.
Ultimately, my goal is to potentially help push you toward or against a bet you were considering by providing some additional context that can hopefully make you a more informed college football bettor.
With that said, let's take a look at my top college football picks, predictions and situational betting spots for Week 11.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 44-35-1 (55.7%)
- Overall: 143-105-2 (57.7%)
Stuckey's Week 11 College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Rutgers +6.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Boston College -2 |
  | 12 p.m. | USF +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Ole Miss +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Kansas +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | North Texas +6 |
  | 4 p.m. | Texas Tech +3.5 |
  | 7 p.m. | Maryland +26 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | LSU +3 |
  | 8 p.m. | Penn State -13.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Nevada +24.5 |
  | 8 p.m. | Virginia +7.5 |
  | 10:15 p.m. | Utah +4 |
Rutgers +6.5 vs. Minnesota
12 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I've loved backing Minnesota over the past month, but it's time to finally jump ship.
Additionally, I've wanted no part of Rutgers during its free fall, but I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Scarlet Knights while simultaneously selling high on the Gophers.
This is also a favorable scheduling spot for Rutgers in an important game for its bowl eligibility hopes. It will come off a bye, which is critical for a team that has been riddled with injuries. Greg Schiano's bunch should come in much healthier in this spot.
Moreover, both of his assistants have a ton of familiarity with Minnesota under PJ Fleck, which should help even more with preparation during the off week.
Meanwhile, Minny will hit the road for its second straight road game after four straight victories — three of which came by one possession in favorable situational spots against opponents dealing with key injuries.
After securing bowl eligibility and with a home date against Penn State on deck, this noon kick at a reeling Rutgers squad sets up as a potential sleepy spot.
From a matchup standpoint, the Rutgers run defense has been absolutely horrid. On the season, it ranks 134th in EPA per Rush allowed and 124th in Rush Success Rate. Well, it might get a break this week against a Minnesota offense that has been much less efficient in the run game, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in both categories.
You also want to attack this Minny defense on the ground, which is where Rutgers wants to live. I'm just hoping stud running back Kyle Monangai is healthy enough to suit up.
I think there's a good shot we've reached the bottom of the market on Rutgers and the peak on Minnesota.
Lastly, the Gophers also boast a whopping +12 turnover margin on the season, so there's certainly some looming turnover regression.
Notable Nugget
With more than 10 days to prepare against FBS foes, Schiano is 12-5 ATS (75%), covering by nearly 10 points per game.
Projection: Rutgers +4.8
Pick: Rutgers +6.5 or Better
Note: I'm going to wait to see if a 7 pops. Follow along on the app to see when I log this bet.
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Boston College -2 vs. Syracuse
12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
In my list of most overrated teams in the country, Syracuse sits close to the top. The Orange come into this game at 6-2 but have gone 4-1 in one-possession games with a pair of those wins coming in overtime.
That includes last week's crazy comeback at home against a Virginia Tech team down its starting quarterback and stud running back amongst other injuries.
The Orange have also gone 14-for-19 on fourth downs, which doesn't seem sustainable for a team that can't really run the ball consistently. In fact, the underlying data on both sides of the ball suggests looming late-down regression.
While Syracuse was in a fight to the end of overtime last week, Boston College enjoyed a bye week, which should enable the Eagles to come into this game a bit healthier overall.
They will actually even have 15 days of preparation since they last played two Fridays ago in a four-point loss to Louisville. I think that's even more beneficial here since I give the coaching schematic edge to BC.
The Eagles should hold a major edge at the line of scrimmage on offense, enabling them to finally get their run game going against a very porous Syracuse run defense, especially in terms of setting the edge. That's problematic against the mobile Thomas Castellanos.
That should lead to some open-shot plays off of play-action — where Castellanos has been nearly flawless with seven touchdowns to no interceptions with a nearly 80% Adjusted Completion Rate — against a lackluster Syracuse pass defense that will give up explosives.
While I could see Syracuse coming out a bit flat for this noon kick in Chestnut Hill, especially after just getting to bowl eligibility, I expect Boston College to come out inspired (and with a great script) in a massive game for its postseason chances.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Syracuse is 10-22 ATS (31.3%) as a conference road dog in the months of November and December.
Projection: Boston College -3
Pick: Boston College ML (Play to -2)
USF +3 vs. Navy
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
I still think Navy is overvalued in the market after its red-hot start both SU and ATS, while USF looks like a buy-on team after a disappointing start to the season.
The Mids no doubt have exceeded all expectations so far, but they also benefited early in the season from the element of surprise with their new-look offense under coordinator Drew Cronic against a laughable schedule that still ranks outside the top 120 nationally — almost 50 spots worse than South Florida's.
They also enjoyed an abundance of good fortune in many of the ancillary areas such as red-zone production and turnovers.
Some of that regression has naturally hit over their past two games (both losses), and there's likely more coming in a tough situational spot.
While USF, which hasn't left the state of Florida since September, has an extra day of rest and preparation — which is key against a unique offense — Navy will play its third-straight game away from home with the latter coming at Rice after a lengthy delay late into the night.
From a matchup perspective, USF's run defense has the chops to slow down Navy on the ground. On the season, the Bulls rank in the top 15 nationally in both EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate.
The Midshipmen could hit some explosive plays through the air against a vulnerable Bulls secondary with particularly poor safety play.
However, I'm also not sure how healthy quarterback Blake Horvath is after suffering a thumb injury against Notre Dame. Horvath has thrown 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions despite 10 turnover-worthy plays. per PFF, so there could be some more coming.
His production has also dipped precipitously when under pressure, which could be problematic against USF's defensive front.
On the other side of the ball, USF had to deal with a quarterback change after original starter Byrum Brown went down with a foot injury.
New starter Bryce Archie struggled out of the gates as expected but has slowly shown signs of improvement as he adjusts to the offense.
However, the strength of the offense still lies in the backfield with a deep stable of backs who should capitalize on a very vulnerable Navy run defense that ranks 120th in Rush Success Rate.
The USF offensive line is also trending in the right direction, especially after making some changes in the interior. They should generate a push up front to open up holes for Kelley Joiner and company.
Notable Nugget
USF is 12-2 as a short dog (less than six points) over the past 10 seasons, covering by 10 points per game. This is essentially meaningless, but I had nothing else.
Projection: South Florida +0.4
Pick: USF +3 or Better
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Ole Miss +3 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Similar to the game above, I just don't think there's much separating these teams, which I believe is a common theme at the top this season.
Plus, from a pure desperation perspective, Ole Miss needs this game for its season, while Georgia can still make the College Football Playoff with a loss. With the new expanded field, I think you'll see more upsets in the future.
Plus, these teams look like they're headed in opposite directions.
Georgia has had just a handful of truly dominant quarters all season (some of which came in a loss) — and it's not like the games against Alabama and Clemson have aged wonderfully.
Quarterback Carson Beck seems lost at the moment, and Georgia's offensive metrics have suffered as a result, especially with an underwhelming rushing attack and a receiving corps that doesn't boast as much raw talent as we've seen in recent seasons.
The tight end room has also been an overwhelming disaster; Brock Bowers is sorely missed.
If you just look at season-long data for 2024, OIe Miss has been the superior team overall.
We will see who ends up playing for Ole Miss at wide receiver with both Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins listed as doubtful early in the week (running back Henry Parrish also won't play).
However, I think Lane Kiffin might just be using some gamesmanship with a record-setting 26-name SEC availability report.
Having both explosive wideouts would certainly help Jaxson Dart. Dart also possesses enough mobility to make Kirby Smart's defense pay with his legs — an area they've struggled with historically. Plus, this Georgia secondary isn't elite at the moment.
Believe it or not, the best statistical unit on the field will be the Ole Miss defense.
Its defensive line is the real deal and opponents can't run on the Rebels, who rank in the top 10 nationally in both EPA and Rush Success Rate. That will leave the job up to Beck, who simply can't be trusted to not make a key mistake (or two or three) right now — even against an Ole Miss back end that can be picked on at times.
For the season, Beck now has more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (12), including a ratio of 4:0 over the past two games. Last year at this point in the season, he had twice as many big-time throws, per PFF.
Compare that to Dart, who has a 19:8 BTT-TWP ratio.
Beck has also struggled immensely under pressure with just a 36% completion percentage and seven turnover-worthy throws. He'll certainly see pressure against the Rebels, who have six defenders with at least 20 pressures for a unit that ranks No. 1 in Havoc.
Now, the same can be said for Dart — although the drop-off is nowhere near as steep.
However, that's one of my two concerns for the Rebels in this game. Will Georgia just completely overwhelm a beatable Ole Miss offensive line like we saw in Austin against a more talented front?
My other worry is Kirby Smart in a big game against Lane Kiffin, who hasn't necessarily shined under the bright lights in these spots. With that said, I'm willing to take a shot on the desperate home 'dog at a field goal or better.
Notable Nugget
Including the postseason, Kirby Smart is 29-15 ATS (65.9%) against ranked opponents, covering by nearly five points per game.
Projection: Ole Miss +1.5
Pick: Ole Miss +3 or Better (-115)
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Kansas +3 vs. Iowa State
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1
Kansas was arguably the unluckiest team in the country headed into its last game and then proceeded to blow a late lead on the road against in-state rival Kansas State to lose by two.
As a result, the Jayhawks are now 0-5 in one-possession games and are 1-6 against FBS teams with a -2 scoring differential. Unfathomable!
This team could easily be in the thick of the Big 12 race and have clearly shown they haven't quit on the season in their two most recent games, which I'd expect with Lance Leipold — one of the better coaches in college football for my money — at the helm.
Now, needing to win out for bowl eligibility, I'd expect a game effort out of the bye at home against a ranked Iowa State team — albeit with a reduced home-field advantage in Kansas City with plenty of cardinal and gold expected in the crowd.
While it's not ideal the Cyclones are coming off of a loss, I show enough value in the number and don't mind the matchup for Kansas.
There have been signs of cracks in Iowa State's armor all season. It needed big second-half comebacks to pull out close wins against Iowa and UCF.
The Cyclones also still have a +9 turnover margin, which definitely assisted in their red-hot start before it all came crashing down in a home loss to Texas Tech last week.
So, what do I like about the on-field matchup? Well, for starters, the Iowa State rushing offense has been underwhelming all season, which is good news for a Kansas defense that is much better against the pass.
To slow down the Cyclones, you have to contain wide receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. Well, fortunately for Kansas, it has one of the league's best cornerback duos in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
Additionally, the Jayhawks boast an elite rushing attack that ranks in the top 10 nationally in both EPA and Success Rate.
They should have success in that department against an Iowa State run defense that has been exposed multiple times this season due to injuries in the second level and ranks outside the top 100 in Success Rate.
That should set up quarterback Jalon Daniels, whose play has been trending up all year, to hit a few explosives through the air.
Despite the extreme record disparity, I don't think there's that much of a gap between these two Big 12 foes.
Notable Nugget
Lance Leipold is 16-7-1 ATS (69.6%) as a home underdog.
Projection: Kansas +1.7
Pick: Kansas +3 or Better
North Texas +6 vs. Army
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2
North Texas is hungry for a marquee win on homecoming day in Denton and should have a good shot of pulling off an upset over undefeated Army on Saturday.
The Mean Green will benefit greatly from a bye week, which will enable them to nurse some key injuries and prepare for Army's unique offense.
Plus, Army has major quarterback uncertainty with Bryson Daily's status in doubt. He's been nearly flawless this season but missed last week's game against lowly Air Force with a foot infection.
Head coach Jeff Monken labeled Daily's status as questionable to probable, so nobody really knows who will be under center for the Black Knights, who have a bye followed by a matchup with Notre Dame on deck.
If Daily can't go, there's a massive drop-off to backup freshman Dewayne Coleman, who threw for only 48 yards and rushed for only 2.8 yards per carry last week against the Falcons.
You could argue it's close to a touchdown drop-off between Daily and Coleman. And even if Daily does indeed get the start, there's a decent chance he's not 100% healthy as the engine of the offense.
Ultimately, I believe Army comes into this game extremely overvalued (especially with the QB uncertainty) after dominating against the spread against a comical schedule that ranks 145th in difficulty including FCS teams, per Sagarin.
For reference, North Texas has had the 90th-toughest schedule to date.
I believe this Army defense is in for a rude awakening against an explosive North Texas offense that will hopefully have running back Shane Porter available. If not, the Mean Green could be down to their fourth or fifth option.
Regardless, Chandler Morris and a host of weapons on the outside should carve up this Army secondary that has yet to be tested.
Per my latest power ratings, Army's opponents so far have an average offensive ranking outside the top 110 in the country without even including FCS Lehigh. Just take a look at this list:
- Air Force
- UAB
- Rice
- East Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Tulsa
- Temple
I don't have a single one of those offenses ranked inside the top 90, and four of those seven teams either started a backup quarterback or have since benched their original starter.
Despite that easy schedule, Army still ranks outside the top 80 in Success Rate against the run and pass.
Will the Black Knights be ready for a top-25 North Texas offense? I have my doubts.
Army also still has some major negative regression looming on the horizon. It has a +11 turnover margin in part due to recovering seven of its eight fumbles.
In comparison, North Texas has recovered one fumble on the entire season and has a -5 turnover margin. The same can be said for Army's good defensive fortune in the red zone and on fourth downs.
I'm buying the Mean Green off of the bye following two straight one-possession losses against Tulane and Memphis in which they outgained both opponents by more than 200 combined yards but just couldn't overcome turnovers and countless key failed fourth-down attempts.
The North Texas defense is rubbish, but it can keep up with Army, assuming Daily even plays and/or is fully healthy.
For what it's worth, if Daily gets ruled out, I'd make North Texas a favorite.
There's a chance this line does go up to 7 if Daily gets ruled in officially in which case I'd add to my position, but I'm comfortable pulling the trigger at this price even with that uncertainty.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Army has gone just 24-35-2 ATS (40.7%) as a favorite against FBS foes, including 6-18-2 ATS (25%) when laying between a field goal and a touchdown.
Projection: North Texas +3.0
Pick: North Texas +6 (Play to +4.5)
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Texas Tech +3.5 vs. Colorado
4 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
Has Colorado improved as the season has progressed? Absolutely. The run game now can at least offer some semblance of balance with an improving offensive line, and the defense has shown signs of life.
However, that doesn't mean the Buffaloes aren't overvalued in the market. I just can't get to even a field goal in Lubbock, which is one of the more underrated home-field advantages in college football.
Plus, it's not like Colorado's wins have aged like a fine wine. Arizona is way down. UCF is as well and played with the now-benched KJ Jefferson at quarterback.
It beat Baylor in overtime at home thanks to a Hail Mary as time expired in regulation and benefited from a similar play at the end of the first half at home against Cincinnati.
The Texas Tech defense has many flaws, but its metrics are a bit depressed as a result of a number of key injuries earlier this season. We'll see how healthy it is this week with a number of contributors listed as questionable.
Regardless, Colorado will move the ball through the air with chunk plays against an overmatched Texas Tech pass defense that allows far too many big plays.
However, I'm still not fully sold on this Colorado defensive renaissance. As a result, I think Behren Morton, Tahj Brooks, Josh Kelly, a deep and talented tight end room and a very good pass-blocking offensive line can keep up.
Brooks should have no issues getting going on the ground, and the Red Raiders can exploit some of Colorado's coverage issues at the linebacker and safety spots.
Morton has struggled when under natural fire, but Colorado can't really generate natural pressure without sending the blitz.
However, Morton has excelled against the blitz this season, throwing for six touchdowns to just one interception with a 75% Adjusted Completion Percentage on over 100 dropbacks.
In fairness, this isn't the best scheduling spot. While Colorado had a bye last week, Texas Tech comes off a road upset of previously undefeated Iowa State.
And while I'm certainly worried about the Texas Tech cornerbacks holding up against Shedeur Sanders and the prolific Colorado passing attack, I can't pass up this price with an offense that should have no issues matching Colorado score for score in a likely shootout.
Lastly, don't sleep on the special teams edge for Texas Tech in what should be a close game.
Notable Nugget
The Red Raiders are 17-8-1 ATS (68%) as a home dog of more than a field goal since 2005. Over that same span, Colorado is the least-profitable road team at 37-64-1 ATS (36.6%).
Projection: Texas Tech +2.2
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5 or Better
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Maryland +26 at Oregon
7 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
Oregon bit me last week with a last-second touchdown to cover against Michigan, but prior to that, the Ducks hadn't shown a propensity to run up the score in the second halves of games.
They really have no incentive to at this point with a spot in the College Football Playoff all but locked up. The focus late in games with big leads will likely be on staying healthy and getting younger guys some looks, which we saw in non-covers against UCLA and Michigan State.
From a pure market standpoint, I bet Oregon -21 at home against Illinois two weeks ago, and I have Maryland power-rated ever so slightly ahead of the Illini.
Maryland's defense also provides a bit better resistance against the run, which should at least give it a puncher's chance.
The secondary isn't any good, but it will at least be healthier than it was in a blowout loss to Minnesota in which it was down multiple defensive backs and lost another early on to a targeting call.
It doesn't hurt that Oregon will likely be down its top receiver and starting guard.
I do worry about the putrid Maryland offensive line against this Oregon front, but the Terps at least have some talented skill position players who can make enough plays to stay within this number.
And if not, they could easily get in the back door, assuming Dan Lanning parks the bus.
Even in complete demolitions of Purdue and Illinois, both the Boilermakers and Illini had chances to cover every number late in the fourth quarter.
After an embarrassing loss at Minnesota, I'm expecting a much sharper Maryland team off of a bye in a maximum focus spot on the road against the No. 1 team in the country.
Although, the coaching matchup is certainly not working in my favor, as Mike Locksley hasn't thrived in this spot historically.
Notable Nugget
Locksley is just 8-18 ATS (30.8%) as a road conference underdog, although he has covered 4-of-7 when catching over three touchdowns.
Projection: Maryland +23.1
Pick: Maryland +26 (Play to +24.5)
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LSU +3 vs. Alabama
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
Again, a common theme in this piece all season has been the lack of separation between the top teams in the country, especially in the SEC, which may explain why underdogs have fared so well in league play (29-13 ATS) this year.
The same holds true in this matchup. I don't think there's close to a touchdown separating Alabama and LSU, which a field-goal spread in Death Valley at night implies.
The Tigers don't hold any special scheduling edge in this matchup since both teams come in off of a bye for a quasi-playoff game with the loser likely eliminated from College Football Playoff contention.
Therefore, this is more of a "give me the home 'dog catching a field goal" spot since I project this closer to a coin-flip.
Plus, the LSU offense does have a few matchup advantages. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier should have a field against a very vulnerable Alabama secondary that's still very inexperienced.
The Tide's metrics still look good on paper, but who have they been tested against outside of getting lit up by Carson Beck, who hasn't necessarily lit the world on fire since? The other passing offenses they have faced include:
- Western Kentucky (with a now benched quarterback)
- Wisconsin (with a backup quarterback)
- USF (which missed countless wide-open deep shots)
- Vanderbilt (which put up 40 in an upset win)
- South Carolina (which should have arguably won in Tuscaloosa)
- Tennessee (which upset the Tide in Knoxville)
- Missouri (with a backup quarterback)
That's not the most daunting schedule of opposing aerial attacks. And overall, Alabama's defensive strength of schedule ranks below the national average without even accounting for injuries.
Meanwhile, LSU has faced a top-15 schedule on both offense and defense. Well, that will change on Saturday night with LSU, which ranks in the top 20 in both EPA per Pass and Passing Success Rate.
Nussmeier should have ample time in the pocket working behind an elite pass-blocking offensive line that has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks. This Alabama defense does have some pass-rushing prowess as you'd expect, but it's not an elite group by any stretch.
My one concern is the loss of starting guard Garrett Dellinger, who will miss this game with an injury.
Will that prove to be a weak link, especially since a few of the backs aren't great in pass protection? Only time will tell, but LSU should have opportunities to move the ball through the air and potentially have more of a complementary run game with the emergence of freshman Caden Durham and two weeks to work more on the new run-blocking scheme.
On the other side of the ball, the LSU defense continues to get better with each passing week under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker.
The extra time off should also allow for LSU to make some adjustments for how it contains a mobile quarterback, which ultimately cost the Tigers after Texas A&M made the in-game switch to Marcel Reed.
Alabama's Jalen Milroe should benefit health-wise from the time off, but LSU won't be caught off guard this week.
The Alabama offense also hasn't been firing on all cylinders since that first-half explosion against Georgia. The Tide have faced some elite defenses in fairness, but the run game has been stuck in the mud and they rank only 48th in Success Rate thus far.
The offensive line has some extremely concerning underlying metrics (outside the top 100 in a number of categories), which could prove problematic against an underrated and aggressive LSU defensive front.
This could simply boil down to whether or not LSU can limit Milroe's deep balls, which have remained elite just like last season. LSU's defense is vulnerable to pass explosives, so this will be an area to watch.
Removing flukes or injuries, this looks like a nail-biter throughout, so I'll take the home 'dog catching a field goal against an Alabama team I still have highlighted as overvalued in the market.
Notable Nugget
Brian Kelly is 20-11-1 ATS (64.5%) with extra time to prepare. He's also 28-13-1 ATS (68.3%) as an underdog of at least a field goal, covering by 5.75 points per game.
Projection: LSU +0.8
Pick: LSU +3 or Better
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Penn State -13.5 vs. Washington
8 p.m. ET ⋅ Peacock
This is a brutal spot for Washington, which has to travel across the country again to take on Penn State at home off of a loss in a prime-time "White Out" game in Happy Valley.
Over the past six weeks, UW has also traveled to road games against Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana with the latter two each ending as losses by at least two touchdowns.
It's also worth noting the Huskies definitely got a bit fortunate last week in their five-point win over USC. They were outgained by almost 100 total yards but benefited from a +3 turnover margin and two fourth-down stops late in the game.
That unit was also on the field for 80 plays, which could lead to some fatigue this week in Happy Valley.
From a matchup perspective, Penn State's terrific running back tandem should run at will on Washington, which ranks 92nd in EPA per Rush.
The Huskies feature one of the nation's elite pass defenses, but that strength is neutered a bit considering PSU's primary weakness lies at the wide receiver position.
On the other side of the ball, Washington does have a very good (and balanced) offense, but it still doesn't do the little things right.
Penn State should also dominate the line of scrimmage against an overmatched Washington offensive line. That will likely lead to a key mistake or two from quarterback Will Rogers, which should allow the Nittany Lions to build margin.
I'm not a huge fan of laying points with this methodical Penn State offense that just hasn't passed the smell test in 2024, and I don't love backing teams off of marquee losses in the so-called "angry role."
However, this is not a great spot (nor matchup) for Washington in a game I project at over two touchdowns.
Notable Nugget
James Franklin is 43-26-2 ATS (62.3%) as a double-digit favorite. Among 387 head coaches in our Action Labs database over the past 20 years, only Nick Saban is more profitable when laying 10-plus.
Projection: Penn State -14.8
Pick: Penn State -13.5 or Better
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Nevada +24.5 at Boise State
8 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX
I have to imagine we're getting close to the peak of Boise State's market value if we're not there already.
On the other side, I think this presents a good opportunity to buy low on a feisty and well-coached Nevada team following three straight losses that partly occurred due to injuries, turnovers and failed fourth-down attempts.
Just take a look at the net yardage in those trio of defeats:
- -21 vs. Fresno State
- +118 vs. Colorado State
- -15 vs. Hawaii
Unfortunately for the Wolf Pack, they now have seven losses after a promising start to the season, which ends their bowl dreams. However, as a result, this becomes their Super Bowl in a way with an opportunity to play spoiler.
I expect a game effort from a much healthier bunch overall, including at quarterback with Brendon Lewis, who has the mobility required to go up against a Boise State defense that can really get after opposing quarterbacks.
Nevada also profiles as an intriguing large underdog with a methodical offense that thrives on the ground.
The Pack rank in the top 25 nationally in both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. That's exactly how to attack a Boise State defense that sits 95th in EPA per Rush allowed.
Ashton Jeanty will certainly get his against a bad run (and overall) defense, but Nevada can shrink this game enough with its successful ground game to stay within 24, assuming Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson doesn't try to run this up for playoff style points late and the horrid Nevada special teams don't implode.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Nevada is 22-12-2 ATS (64.7%) as a road conference dog, including 6-2 when catching more than three touchdowns.
Projection: Nevada +22.1
Pick: Nevada +24.5 (Play to +24)
Virginia +7.5 at Pitt
8 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network
I haven't bought this Pittsburgh team all season, and I'm not about to start after seeing the Panthers get their doors blown off in Dallas last week.
A loss like that was definitely coming after Pitt's luck-fueled 7-0 start, which included a pair of late double-digit comebacks against Cincy and West Virginia, a fortunate two-point home win over Cal and a turnover-assisted blowout at home against Syracuse in which the Panthers had five interceptions — three of which they took to the house.
Their other three wins came against UNC, Kent State and Youngstown State. Color me less than impressed with that resume.
And while I certainly make plenty of exceptions (see Penn State above), I prefer to fade rather than back top-20 teams following losses in top-20 matchups.
For what it's worth, they have historically covered in these spots 43% of the time and a touch less as a favorite of more than a touchdown.
The Panthers could certainly come out a bit flat here after basically having their shot at a College Football Playoff berth and ACC Championship end with that loss to SMU.
I'm not sure how excited they'll be for a home game against Virginia after playing SMU with Clemson on deck.
They also saw one of their better defenders in safety Donovan McMillon go down with an injury, and I think there's a substantial drop-off to his backup.
Meanwhile, this is also a spot to buy low on the Cavaliers following three straight losses during a brutal part of their schedule. More importantly, they'll be coming off of a bye, which should enable them to get much healthier.
In their last game, they got blown out by North Carolina, but I'm not sure many realize how banged up UVA was in that game, especially along the offensive line, where they were down to their third-string center.
The issues up front (and a horrid tackling day) basically ruined any chance of operating a competent offense against the Heels. However, the Hoos should have everybody back this week. We'll see if that's the case with a couple of key defenders as well.
From a matchup perspective, teams have to hit explosive plays through the air against a Pitt defense that ranks 95th in EPA per Pass. Virginia is certainly capable of doing just that with the ultimate gunslinger Anthony Colandrea under center.
Colandrea could certainly put the ball in harm's way here, but that has to be a major concern for Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein as well moving forward. On the season, he has an impressive 17:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio but an alarming 10:20 Big-Time Throw to Turnover-Worthy Play rate, per PFF.
The turnovers are coming for a Pitt team I think the market is still overvaluing after its hot start to the 2024 campaign.
Notable Nugget
In ACC play, Pat Narduzzi is just 6-15 ATS (28.6%) as a favorite of six or more points, failing to cover by an average of nearly six points per game.
Projection: Virginia +5.8
Pick: Virginia +7.5
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Utah +4 vs. BYU
10:15 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
I'm just not buying that anybody is any good in the Big 12 this season.
Yes, BYU has been awesome this season en route to an 8-0 start as the lone remaining undefeated team in the league. We could easily see the Cougars in the College Football Playoff, which I don't think anybody predicted before the season.
However, I'm not fully buying in just yet — although I certainly have been wrong this season a few times when going against Kalani Sitake's bunch.
Regardless of my dumb bets (with the exception of Oklahoma State), I don't think anybody would argue that BYU has been quite fortunate this season.
The Pokes should have won in Provo if not for a last-second game-winning touchdown and some key injuries. The win over Kansas State was extremely fluky with a number of non-offensive scores leading to 38 points on 241 total yards of offense.
The Cougars have also won all three one-possession games, including one that has aged really well at SMU — but that was before the Mustangs really got it going this season after the bye week.
I'm also not sure BYU can keep up its current pace in the turnover department (+7 margin) or on fourth downs (15-for-18 on the season). The latter has certainly saved a number of drives, considering it hasn't been a great third-down offense.
We could start to see some of that regression against an elite Utah defense that ranks second nationally on third downs. Conversely, Utah sits on the opposite end of the spectrum with a rare negative turnover margin (-4) and a 44% fourth-down conversion rate (8-for-18).
BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has also gotten away with some risky throws this season, especially when under pressure.
I wouldn't be surprised if he threw a couple of picks against Utah's heavy Cover 1 defense — which Retzlaff has had some issues against.
Is this the game Utah finally gets its first pick-six of the season? It just needs one in 2024 to set the NCAA record for most consecutive seasons (21) with an interception return for a touchdown.
While both teams are coming off of a bye, I think it actually favors Utah in this situation. Its defense needed the break after getting absolutely no help from its offense on a weekly basis.
Meanwhile, the offense could also really benefit from extra time to work on some new things under interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, who was promoted to the position in late October after Andy Ludwig stepped down.
It remains unclear who the Utes will start at quarterback between Brandon Rose and Isaac Wilson, but maybe that element of surprise works in their favor for what has been an abysmal offensive year.
Regardless of who gets the nod under center, Utah will likely lean on stud running back Micah Bernard (and its defense) against a very suspect BYU run defense that ranks 77th in Rush Success Rate and outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush.
Utah can ground-and-pound with Bernard to shorten this game while relying on its top-10 defense to ugly this game up and keep it close in front of a raucous Holy War crowd.
It's been a super disappointing lost season for the Utes, so this now becomes their Super Bowl against their undefeated bitter rival. I expect Kyle Whittingham to have his kids ready to roll for this one.
Notable Nugget
Kyle Whittingham is 27-16 ATS (62.8%) as an underdog of four or more points.
Projection: Utah +2.0
Pick: Utah +4 (Play to +3.5)
