College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 2: Collin Wilson’s Top Bets for Oklahoma State-Arkansas, Oregon-Boise

College Football Picks for Week 2

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting for Saturday's Week 2 college football slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Michigan +7
	12 p.m.	Over 63
	7:30 p.m.	Over 61.5 · Tennessee -8
	10 p.m.	Oregon Team Total Over 40.5
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Week 2 of the college football season is upon us, and we have an absolutely loaded Saturday slate.

It kicks off with two quality games at noon ET.

First, the No. 3 Texas Longhorns make the trip to the Big House to face the No. 10 Michigan Wolverines in a battle between two College Football Playoff teams from last season. This time, though, the defending national champions are touchdown-plus underdogs in their own stadium.

At the same time, the Arkansas Razorbacks travel to Stillwater to take on the No. 16 Oklahoma State Cowboys in what should be a fun SEC/Big 12 battle.

Heading into the evening, we have a top-25 matchup in Charlotte, as the No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers meet the No. 24 NC State Wolfpack in one of the Pack's biggest nonconference games in recent memory.

Then, to close it all out, the No. 7 Oregon Ducks host the Boise State Broncos for one of the most entertaining Power 4 vs. Group of Five matchups of the 2024 college football season.

I broke down all four games below, so let's dive into my top college football picks and predictions for some of the biggest games on Saturday, Sept. 7.

Saturday, Sept. 7

12 p.m. ET

FOX

Michigan +7

The Texas Longhorns and Michigan Wolverines were one game away from playing each other in the National Championship a season ago.

The Longhorns ended their final season in the Big 12 with a conference championship, vaulting the program into its first-ever College Football Playoff. Texas would go on to lose to Washington in the Sugar Bowl, ending any chances of bringing a national title back to Austin.

Michigan had better luck, surviving Alabama in the Rose Bowl before steamrolling Washington to win the National Championship.

But these have become very different since last January.

Former head coach Jim Harbaugh has moved on to the NFL, allowing the Wolverines to promote offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to head coach.

Plenty of questions surround the Wolverines offense, which gave consumers a glimpse in their opening weekend victory over Fresno State.

Texas' coaching staff remains in place, but the loss of Havoc creators on the defensive line was the hot spot to watch entering 2024. The Longhorns had no issues disposing of Colorado State in the season opener, setting up a titanic matchup in Week 2.

While a loss here doesn't end the playoff chances for either team, the winner will vault into the national title picture.

Let's dive into my Texas vs. Michigan prediction for the top-10 battle on Saturday, Sept. 7 below.

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Texas Longhorns

Texas made quick work of Colorado State in the season opener. The Longhorns more than doubled the Rams' overall yards per play, generating at least 10 yards per play on four of their 12 offensive possessions.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers threw for 260 yards and a trio of touchdowns, while running back Jerrick Gibson was the standout player in the backfield with an average of 6.7 yards per carry spread out over 10 rushing attempts.

There was no resistance in a passing game that saw touchdown catches by Isaiah Bond, Silas Bolden and Matthew Golden.

The biggest question heading into the season centered around a defense that lost two stellar interior linemen.

Starting defensive tackle Vernon Broughton generated two of the Longhorns' seven pressures over 57 snaps. Colorado State entered the season with an offensive line that was projected to finish in the bottom half of the Mountain West but kept the Longhorns from recording a single sack on the day.

The Rams also finished with a 53% Success Rate in running plays, which is above the national average. However, Texas still stuffed 12-of-32 rushing attempts to eclipse the national average of 30%.

One of the most surprising elements from the Colorado State box score comes from the secondary.

Texas struggled to get stops when opponents targeted the defensive backfield, but Colorado State struggled to convert when it mattered. The Rams went 5-of-16 on third- and fourth-down attempts, posting a subpar 26% Success Rate and 3.7 yards per play in passing downs.

Cornerbacks Malik Muhammad and Gavin Holmes each recorded a pass breakup, while Wardell Mack and Jahdae Barron posted interceptions.

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan unleashed a new-look offense against Fresno State, signaling the start of the Sherrone Moore era.

Although the former offensive coordinator filled the role as an interim head coach for a few games last season, this offense won't have JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum to fall back on.

Quarterback Davis Warren received the lion's share of passing attempts, going 15-of-25 for 118 yards.

Tight end Colston Loveland was on the receiving end of more than half of the completions, catching eight of his nine targets for 87 yards and a score on the day.

Running back Kalel Mullings busted out for 6.1 yards per carry on 15 rushing attempts, generating a high 4.3 yards after contact.

While, Warren's outing was serviceable, there are a number of aspects worth investigating.

The starter posted a decent average depth of target at 8.4 yards and took only a single sack despite being pressured seven times. He didn't record a big-time play, but he had only a single turnover-worthy play to push his rate close to the national average after 26 dropbacks.

Warren was great at getting rid of the ball quickly, averaging just 2.17 seconds before release. The junior completed one of his five passes beyond 10 yards while pounding the tackle box for eight completions on 11 attempts with an NFL rating of 125.9.

The Michigan defense did its part, allowing just 10 points and no methodical drives.

Fresno State tallied an overall success of 36% — well below the national average of 47.5% — while failing to break any rushing attempt over 12 yards.

The Bulldogs were obliterated in rushing attempts. Michigan stuffed 11 of Fresno's 19 attempts as the Bulldogs posted a 15% Success Rate with an average of two yards per play.

While the run defense was stellar, cornerbacks created all the Havoc in the defensive backfield. Jyaire Hill and Aamir Hall each created a pass breakup, while Will Johnson and Zeke Berry intercepted passes from Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene.

Texas vs Michigan Pick & Prediction

The handicap in this game comes down to two elements on opposite sides of the ball.

Michigan will use a heavy amount of inside zone read run concepts with quarterback Alex Orji and the running back pair of Mullings and Donovan Edwards.

Moore has shown in the past that if his team can find success with a particular run concept, there may not be a need to put the ball in the air.

The biggest question is the run defense for Texas' interior.

Starters Bill Norton, Alfred Collins and Broughton fetched three of the lowest run defense grades, per PFF. The starting trio created one stop — defined as a complete failure of the offense — in a combined 27 rushing attempts from Colorado State.

The Michigan defense maintained the program's standard against Fresno State.

The Bulldogs saw 15 pressures and 11 quarterback hurries in passing attempts, and bell-cow running back Malik Sherrod was limited to 24 yards on 14 carries.

The Longhorns saw a lot of positives from Gibson on the ground, but a mark of 2.7 yards after contact could indicate that Texas will struggle to create explosives against Michigan.

After utilizing quarters and Cover 3 against Fresno, expect the Wolverines' defensive line to handle the rush while maximum pass protection is used in zone coverage.

The preseason Game of the Year odds fell as a pick'em for this game with little movement. Texas took a bit of money before Week 1, and that number quickly became the Longhorns by a touchdown.

Both teams did what was asked from an oddsmakers' perspective in their first game, as Michigan missed a cover by a point and Texas dominated a spread that nearly closed at five touchdowns.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian's dominance of a one-dimensional Colorado State team has created a wide delta on a number that was previously a pick.

With the Longhorns' defensive line grading out poorly against the Rams' rush, Michigan has a path to run the ball and dominate the clock like a service academy.

Pick: Michigan +7 (-120) or Better

Saturday, Sept. 7

12 p.m. ET

ABC

Over 63

Plenty of conference bragging rights will be decided in a number of head-to-heads scheduled for Week 2, and Stillwater will serve as the backdrop for an SEC underdog.

Oklahoma State was successful in an easy ATS cover against South Dakota State. Prior to that, the Pokes were responsible for winning the last version of Bedlam, sending in-state rival Oklahoma packing to the SEC.

While the Big 12 schedule is of the greatest importance to the team goals, quarterback Alan Bowman relayed that a Week 2 bout with Arkansas is paramount to the players who weren't recruited by SEC schools.

The Razorbacks were also highly successful in Week 1, posting 10 offensive touchdowns in 10 total possessions. While the Cowboys were dealing with a tw0-time FCS champion, the Razorbacks took on in-state rival UAPB, which ranks as one of the worst teams in all of Division I.

Arkansas looked fantastic on both sides of the ball, as the defense continued a heavy aggressive style, while new faces at running back logged numerous explosive plays.

The true measuring stick of these two programs comes in the early time slot on Saturday, as Oklahoma State has a chance to beat an SEC team once again.

Here's my Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State prediction and pick.

Arkansas Razorbacks

The return of Bobby Petrino to the Arkansas coaching staff was a successful one. Not only did the Hogs score on every possession, the offense converted all nine third downs while going over the national average for Success Rate in Standard Downs by 25%.

Arkansas quarterbacks hit 15 different targets in the passing game, while Ja'Quinden Jackson made every Razorback fan forget the days of Rocket Sanders.

The offense ran inside and outside zone read exclusively through 11, 12 and 10 personnel. Taylen Green was pressured on four drop backs while averaging 13.2 yards in average depth of target.

Petrino was spotted smiling and laughing on the sidelines at the conclusion of the game, but there were spots in the box score that need attention from the coaching staff.

Green had three drops on the day at 15.8%, more than double his career average from three years at Boise State. Those drops came on 12 combined targets to wideouts Tyrone Broden and Jordan Anthony, who are both expected to be major contributors after the latest release of the depth chart.

Top receiver Andrew Armstrong — and Green's roommate — didn't play against UAPB and will get his first game action against the Pokes.

The offensive line graded out well, with spot-starter E'Marion Harris having issues in pass blocking. The guard filled in for Patrick Kutas, whose status is unknown for Week 2.

Defensive coordinator Travis Williams nearly cut his blitz rate in half, sending an extra man after the UAPB quarterback on just 10 defensive snaps. Williams is know for a blitz rate of 35% or more, with usage of an ultra-aggressive Cover Zero.

The base defense did plenty against the rush, stuffing 12-of-19 runs from UAPB for an average of 2.1 yards per play in ground attempts. If there's an area of worry heading into Oklahoma State, the Razorbacks failed to create any Havoc in the defensive backfield despite sending virtually no blitz.

Starting corner Jaheim Singletary created the lone pass breakup on 22 passing attempts from the Lions. Starters at corner such as Jaylon Braxton, safety TJ Metcalf and corner Tevis Metcalf allowed all targets to become a secure catch-and-gain for UAPB.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Running back Ollie Gordon II was arrested earlier this summer, serving his punishment at Big 12 Media Days with an apology to the press.

The Heisman hopeful put those violations behind him with a three-touchdown performance against South Dakota State. Gordon powered through the FCS defensive line for 126 yards, but he averaged just 2.8 yards after contact.

The senior-dominated offensive line didn't have the cleanest game, allowing 10 run stuffs and eight pressures on Bowman. The seventh-year senior quarterback was fantastic on the day, committing only one turnover worthy play.

The path is clear for Oklahoma State in passing situations, as Bowman targeted slot Brennan Presley and wideout De'Zhaun Stribling a combined 17 times against South Dakota State.

The Cowboys were firing on all cylinders from an explosive and methodical standpoint, reaching two or more first downs on seven-of-13 offensive possessions.

The 3-3-5 defense of coordinator Bryan Nardo played contain against one of the best offenses in FCS. South Dakota State failed to produce a methodical drive, defined as any offensive possession with at least 10 plays.

The Pokes turned up the heat in passing downs, limiting the Jackrabbits to a low 3.7 yards per play through 28 attempts.

Havoc continues to be a staple with edge Collin Oliver producing eight pressures.

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Arkansas vs Oklahoma State Pick & Prediction

Both Arkansas and Oklahoma State flashed the strength of their offenses against inferior competition in the opening game. Both teams flashed workhorse running backs and competent quarterback play, but the issues for each squad begin with the pass defense.

Arkansas produced a single pass breakup against 22 UAPB passing attempts.

Conversely, Oklahoma State produced three pass breakups against 35 passing attempts from South Dakota State. Per PFF, the Cowboys and Razorbacks rank 109th and 117th in coverage grading against FCS competition.

Even more worrisome for both defenses is the missed tackles, as the Pokes and Razorbacks combined for 23 missed tackles and grades outside of the top 100, per PFF.

Arkansas did filter in second- and third-string defensive players, but it still had missed tackles from starters Landon Jackson and Xavian Sorey Jr.

Oklahoma State starters Nickolas Martin and Cam Smith were also responsible for missed tackles.

There's every expectation that both offenses will find success. Bowman gushed about Stribling in the preseason, predicting the wideout would have plenty of explosive plays in single coverage. The Arkansas defensive front may commit an extra man in the box to satisfy the blitz package expected, but leaving a miss-tackling secondary in one-and-one coverage could create quick scores.

Conversely, South Dakota State filled the Cowboys' box score with a rusher averaging 8.1 yards per carry and a leading receiver hauling in seven-of-11 targets for 150 yards.

There's every expectation this game will be filled with explosive plays, missed tackles and no pass breakups.

Pick: Over 63 or Better

Saturday, Sept. 7

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Over 61.5 · Tennessee -8

Despite a proximity within 400 miles, Tennessee and NC State have only played each other three times since the first meeting in 1911. The 2012 victory by the Volunteers signifies the only other time this series has been played after World War II.

Fast forward to the 2024 season, and both the Volunteers and Wolfpack sit just outside the top of their respective conferences, looking to break the ceiling into a conference championship game.

Head coach Josh Heupel didn't break a sweat in Week 1 as Tennessee cruised past Chattanooga, 69-3. The Volunteers were expected to struggle in the defensive backfield with no starting experience, but the Mocs completed only half of their passes.

The first game of the season wasn't as pleasant for NC State head coach Dave Doeren. Despite featuring one of the best Group of Five quarterback transfers, the Wolfpack entered the fourth quarter trailing Western Carolina.

The Catamounts had plenty of success in Standard Downs passing, generating methodical and explosive drives. NC State struggled to keep Western Carolina out of the backfield, allowing nine tackles for loss.

Because of the Week 1 results, this spread has steamed through seven in favor of Tennessee. This will be a neutral site game for the Duke's Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

So, here's my Tennessee vs. NC State prediction and preview.

Tennessee Volunteers

Heupel stated at SEC Media Days that there was an expectation quarterback Nico Iamaleava would be ready to make a significant contribution from the beginning of the season.

The head coach was spot on as the sophomore threw for more than 300 yards on 22-of-28 passing against Chattanooga. Iamaleava created two big time throws, no turnover worthy plays and had a quick release at 2.6 seconds.

The offensive line did their part in protecting the quarterback, too, allowing just one passing attempt to fly with pressure from the Mocs' defense.

Heupel's stretch wide spread formation was rolling for the weapons outside of the tackle box.

At least eight different players drew three targets on the day, but a former Oregon Ducks wideout stole the show. Dont'e Thornton Jr. caught all three targets for a grand total of 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The Tennessee offense was firing on all cylinders, as if the timing was in mid-season form.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Tennessee defensive line took over the game, producing five quarterback hurries against Chattanooga. The Mocs were stuffed in Standard Downs, resulting in an average third-down distance of 9.9 yards, going 1-for-14 on conversion attempts.

Although Chattanooga doesn't bring the pedigree of an SEC opponent, the Mocs failed to produce a single explosive or methodical drive by getting beyond the Tennessee 40-yard line on just three-of-14 possessions.

NC State Wolfpack

Per Sagarin ratings, NC State should've had an easier time with Western Carolina than Tennessee's afternoon hosting Chattanooga. The Wolfpack were inline for an FCS upset if not for a flurry of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall had an unkind introduction to NC State football, seeing pressure on nine drop backs, with targets dropping four balls on the day.

Blindside left tackle Anthony Belton was responsible for two of the pressures allowed, but the offensive line, as a whole, failed to dominate the line of scrimmage in Standard Downs.

NC State ended the victory with 8-of-32 rushing attempts stuffed, close to the national average mark of 30%. The Catamounts' defense spent the entire trip playing in the backfield, with nine tackles for loss.

With an overall Success Rate just above national average on the day, the Wolfpack offense relied on explosives to win the game. McCall completed 10 passes that gained 15 yards or more, tripling the national average in explosive drive rate.

Target share for the Wolfpack weapons may be different going forward, as wideout Dacari Collins was responsible for half of the team's drops.

While the struggles on offense can be centered around the offensive line, the defensive line failed to take over the Catamounts' offense.

Western Carolina had 42 snaps in Standard Downs to just 17 in Passing Downs, averaging 7.5 yards per play on rushing attempts. Coordinator Tony Gibson had no answers for a 3-3-5 defense that lost one of the program's best-ever linebackers, allowing three-of-five red zone attempts to result in touchdowns.

Weakside linebacker Sean Brown had one of the lowest grades of any defender against the rush.

Although Western Carolina was well above national average in Success Rate using its path, NC State corner Aydan White allowed just five-of-11 opponent targets to be caught, with two resulting in a pass breakup.

Tennessee vs NC State Pick & Prediction

There are a number of items involved in the handicap of Tennessee and NC State, starting with the trenches for the Wolfpack. NC State allowed six quarterback hurries against Western Carolina, an area the Volunteers can expose.

Edge James Pearce Jr. is expected to compete for all-SEC honors this season as one of the best creators of Havoc for the Tennessee defense. Pearce played only 10 snaps against Chattanooga, but he's expected to play every down against the Wolfpack.

McCall should be under pressure once again, but there are plenty of weapons surrounding the quarterback to test the Tennessee secondary.

Slot target Kevin Concepcion quickly became acclimated with his new quarterback, drawing 14 targets for 121 yards and three touchdowns against Western Carolina.

The Volunteers' ability to defend the slot is paramount, as no other wide receiver for the Wolfpack drew more than five targets. Slot corner Boo Carter received the most coverage snaps for Tennessee against Chattanooga, allowing two-of-three targets in Week 1.

The bigger handicap may come with the NC State coverage in the nickel defense against Heupel's offense operated by Iamaleava. The aggressiveness of Gibson's coverage schemes extended into 2024, using heavy amounts of Cover 1 and Cover Zero. Over the past two seasons, the Tennessee offense has had a high Success Rate against both looks, providing an explosive EPA against Cover 1.

While the NC State offensive and defensive lines are expected to have continued struggles, the Tennessee stretch spread offense is expected to thrive.

Iamaleava may have found his most explosive target in Thornton, but wideout Bru McCoy also racked up more than four yards per route run through six receptions.

With the Wolfpack expected to continue a heavy pass attack as a result of no push in the run game, points will hit the scoreboard early, especially with two unproven defensive backfields.

Pick: Over 61.5 or Better · Tennessee -8

Saturday, Sept. 7

10 p.m. ET

Peacock

Oregon Team Total Over 40.5

The Boise State Broncos and Oregon Ducks — two teams with College Football Playoff hopes — will meet Saturday after a pair of unsatisfactory victories in Week 1.

The Ducks struggled to create separation from Idaho last week, allowing a few busted plays to result in touchdowns for the Vandals. Despite a small 10-point victory, Oregon outgained Idaho by 270 yards and gained two or more first downs on half of its offensive possessions.

Red-zone issues resulted in a poor Finishing Drives number — something to keep tabs on through Week 2.

Boise State went cross-country to Statesboro, Georgia, to survive Georgia Southern's offensive assault in the southern humidity.

The Broncos may have the best running back in college football, but the defense allowed the Eagles to create multiple methodical drives. Georgia Southern cashed in on possessions that crossed Boise's 40-yard line, averaging a whopping 5.6 points per trip.

Boisr State is the last nonconference team to win in Autzen Stadium since 2008. For the Broncos to pull an upset in Eugene this time around, a better defensive performance is needed from a secondary that allowed too many explosives against a Sun Belt offense.

Let's take a look at my Boise State vs. Oregon prediction for Saturday, Sept. 7 below.

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Boise State Broncos

A tough road game at Georgia Southern provided a mixed bag when it comes to handicapping Boise State.

The good comes in running back Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 267 yards and six touchdowns while posting 8.2 yards after contact.

Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter made a triumphant return to the program, orchestrating an overall Success Rate of 59% while gobbling up 62% of available yards on 14 possessions.

While Maddux Madsen was competent at quarterback, the Broncos' combination of outside zone read and Jeanty will be the gravy train of this offense.

Boise State ran 51 plays in standard downs to just 15 in passing downs, creating a low average of third-down distance at 4.2 yards.

Madsen completed 22 of his 31 passing attempts, recording a big-time throw and a pair of turnover-worthy plays.

There are playmakers on the outside with receivers Latrell Caples and Cam Camper, who each put up over 3.5 yards per route run in 14 total targets.

While the offense played well, the Boise State defense struggled to get Georgia Southern off the field.

Head coach Spencer Danielson was promoted from defensive coordinator to interim coach before taking the job outright at the Mountain West Championship last season.

The open position at DC was filled by Erik Chinander, a longtime assistant to Scott Frost at UCF and Nebraska. Chinander runs a three-man front with more dime formations to prevent explosives.

While the 37% blitz rate contributed to 21 pressures, the secondary proved to be the culprit behind the Eagles' 24 first downs. Fifteen of those came from passing attempts.

Boise State pulled a top-15 tackle grade and ranks 66th in coverage, per PFF, putting the target for the Oregon offense squarely on the back end of the Broncos defense.

Oregon Ducks

Against Idaho, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning implemented the most vanilla game plan offensively while sitting in a base 3-3-5 defensively with a low blitz rate to put nothing on tape for future opponents.

Heisman hopeful quarterback Dillon Gabriel ended the day going 41-of-49 through the air, generating one of the lowest average depth of targets at 4.3 yards.

The Ducks' first drive of the game against the Vandals consisted of 11 plays, more than five minutes of clock and a touchdown. The game plan was clear: create methodical drives and keep a two-possession lead.

While the game plan was to keep the playbook limited, the offensive line struggled to move Idaho defenders. Tackle Ajani Cornelius gave up two sacks, as the entire offensive line allowed 10 pressures.

The defensive line produced better results, stuffing nearly half of the Vandals' rushing attempts. Idaho failed to create a methodical drive, leaning into explosives through the pass game to get into scoring position.

Idaho gained only 27% of available yards, well below the national average of 44%. If there's an area the Ducks can feel confident in going against Boise State, Oregon did not record a single missed tackle in Week 1.

Boise State vs Oregon Pick & Prediction

Bosie State and Oregon had lackluster performances opening the season against inferior competition.

The handicap comes in defining which aspects will linger and which were due to the head coaches removing 90% of the playbook in anticipation of Week 2.

Gabriel is sure to surpass an average depth of target of under five yards, and the Ducks' tackling will carry over as well.

Jeanty tallied 163 yards after first contact, a number that could be reduced if Oregon continues to tackle in one-on-one situations.

On the other side, the Broncos defense gave up 15 first downs to Georgia Southern through the air — a significant point for Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein. Chinander, Boise State's DC, is sure to continue a three-man front with heavy blitz as well.

Gabriel has not been a stranger to blitzes throughout his career, logging a higher rate of big-time throws versus turnover-worthy plays in a crowded pocket over the past two seasons at Oklahoma.

Action Network's projection lands at Oregon by three touchdowns — in line with the current market offering.

Regardless of the final score against Idaho, the Ducks still gained more than the national average in available yards, Methodical Drive Rate and standard downs Success Rate.

Considering Boise State couldn't get Georgia Southern off the field, there's no expectation Oregon will have resistance putting points on the board.

Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 40.5

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