Week 8 College Football Picks, Predictions for Saturday Night
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | Arkansas +3 |
  | 7 p.m. | Ball State +27 |
  | 7:30 p.m. | Michigan State +6.5 |
  | 7:45 p.m. | Kentucky ML -120 |
  | 10 p.m. | Oregon State +7.5 |
No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas takes center stage in the late slate, but I have five college football picks and predictions elsewhere that have value during the night window of Week 8.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022-23: 99-70-1 (58.6%)
- 2024: 29-22-1 (56.9%)
- Overall: 128-92-2 (58.2%)
Arkansas +3 vs. LSU
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
This is a tough spot for the Tigers, who will travel to Fayetteville after pulling off an improbable overtime win over Ole Miss.
As an LSU backer last week, I can honestly say the Tigers got very lucky (in a spectacular situational spot) thanks to Ole Miss penalties and injuries in addition to a miraculous game-tying touchdown drive in the final minute that was aided by a couple of fourth-down conversions.
Keep in mind that LSU also got extremely lucky in another three-point win earlier this season against South Carolina. In that game, it came back from 17 down thanks in large part to some questionable officiating, more opposing injuries and another game-winning drive in the final minute that required a fourth-down conversion (SC offsides).
In the Tigers' two comeback league wins by a combined six points, their opponents were penalized a combined 25 times for 233 yards.
LSU is two plays away from sitting at 3-3 overall and 0-2 in league play.
This is still a team with holes on defense and an offense that's extremely reliant on its passing attack. Garrett Nussmeier will get his fair share of yards through the air (and may have a healthier wide receiver corps) but will also have bouts of late-down inefficiency against a complex defense.
Conversely, Arkansas is two plays away from being 6-0 despite a very difficult strength of schedule.
It lost in double overtime to Oklahoma State despite outgaining the Pokes by nearly 300 yards, and it probably should've beat undefeated Texas A&M in Arlington.
Plus, while LSU found itself in the midst of a war against the Rebels, Arkansas sat at home last week on its bye week, which gave the Razorbacks two weeks to rest up, get healthier and prepare for this SEC showdown.
As a result, I expect Bobby Petrino and Travis Williams — one of the best coordinator duos in college football today — to have a very good game plan on both sides of the ball with plenty of wrinkles.
For what it's worth, I'm operating under the assumption that quarterback Taylen Green — who got hurt late in the upset win over Tennessee — will play on Saturday night. Head coach Sam Pittman didn't confirm his availability but did state Green has been practicing, which signals to me he should be good to go.
The Arkansas defense has also done a much better job of limiting explosive plays, which I think will ultimately be the difference.
To back the Hogs, I need at least a field goal, which has interestingly been the exact margin of this matchup in each of the past four years.
Back to the Pittman 'dog well we go. For what it's worth, SEC underdogs are an astonishing 18-6 ATS (75%) in league play this season, covering by 7.8 points per game.
Notable Nugget
Sam Pittman is 22-8 ATS (73.3%) as an underdog, covering by nearly five points per game on average. That includes a 15-4 ATS (78.9%) mark against top-20 opponents. He's also 5-1 ATS with extra time to prepare.
Projection: Arkansas +1.9
Pick: Arkansas +3 or Better
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Ball State +27 at Vanderbilt
7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
This is your sandwich spot of the weekend and potentially the entire season.
Following two huge wins over Alabama and Kentucky as a double-digit underdog, Vanderbilt will host Ball State before No. 1 Texas comes to town.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Commodores come out a bit flat and also elect to not show much on offense against an inferior opponent. I'd also expect head coach Clark Lea to pull his starters a bit earlier than usual with a lead in this particular spot and potentially sit anybody dealing with any lingering injuries.
I wouldn't be surprised if Diego Pavia gets a much lighter workload with some of the lower-body injuries he's dealing with.
More importantly, this is a Vanderbilt team that plays extremely slow in lower-possession games, which makes it tougher to cover larger numbers. I've said since its opener that this team profiles like an SEC service academy, which means I want to fade it as a big favorite and back it as a big underdog.
To wit, the 'Dores lost outright as double-digit favorites against Georgia State, while winning outright as double-digit underdogs against Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky and nearly Missouri in an OT loss.
Ball State's defense is horrific, so the only thing working in its favor on that side of the ball is the clock.
However, the Cardinals have found a bit of life of late in a brand new offensive scheme with quarterback Kadin Semonza and company.
They sit at 2-4 on the season but lost a pair of coin-flip games against Western Michigan and Central Michigan by a field goal each. And while they beat Kent State by only two last week, they were up 20 in that game before some wild late shenanigans.
Ultimately, I think Ball State can put together a couple of scoring drives, which is likely all it will take to get inside this number against a potentially sleepy Vanderbilt team. Plus, if needed, the backdoor could swing wide open late.
You definitely have to hold your nose with this one, but give me the road MAC dog against a Vandy team likely at the peak of its market value.
For what it's worth, I came into the season super low on this Ball State bunch and have downgraded it a bit through seven weeks. Conversely, I've upgraded Vanderbilt's power rating by double-digit points but still can't get to a spread of 24 in this matchup — without even considering the situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Vanderbilt hasn't closed as a favorite of over 24 points against an FBS opponent since 2013.
Projection: Ball State +23.3
Pick: Vanderbilt +25 or Better
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Michigan State +6.5 vs. Iowa
7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ NBC
I've had this spot circled since before the season with Michigan State having 15 days to prepare for Iowa after back-to-back contests against top-five teams in Ohio State and Oregon.
Not only did I anticipate those results deflating Sparty's market value, but I thought the bye could be extra valuable for a team that had so much turnover from a staff and roster perspective in the offseason.
It also helps to have one of the most underrated coaches in the country steering the ship, especially considering the Spartans have dealt with an abundance of injuries through the first half of the season.
Iowa played its role in this spot by blowing out Washington, 40-16, which was a misleading final score. The Hawkeyes, who were outgained 393-328, were aided by all kinds of Washington mistakes in a brutal situational spot for the Huskies.
Matchup-wise, Michigan State's defense has fared much better against the run, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Rush Success Rate. That's critical against an Iowa offense that wants to lean on Kaleb Johnson and the ground game.
The Michigan State defense has also really struggled in limiting explosiveness, particularly through the air, but Iowa has one of the least explosive passing offenses in FBS.
And while this Iowa defense is still very good, it's not the same elite unit (51st in Success Rate) we've seen in recent years under coordinator Phil Parker, especially along the defensive line.
Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles will have opportunities to make plays. I just hope he doesn't make too many mistakes, which is my biggest concern on Saturday night in East Lansing.
Give me the home pup in an ideal situational spot catching nearly a touchdown in a game where points should come at a premium with a total of just 41.5.
Notable Nugget
Jonathan Smith is 10-2 ATS (83.3%) with extra time (eight or more days) to prepare for an opponent, including 8-1 against the number (88.9%) as an underdog, covering by over a field goal per game.
Projection: Michigan State +4.9
Pick: Michigan State +6 or Better
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Kentucky ML -120 at Florida
7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network
Kentucky has bounced back very well this season after disappointing performances, and I expect the Cats to do the same here after losing to Vanderbilt.
After losing to South Carolina, they almost upset Georgia as 24-point underdogs, then followed up that loss with an upset win over Ole Miss as 17-point underdogs.
More importantly, I love the matchup.
Kentucky's passing attack remains wildly inconsistent, but the rushing attack has been productive (top-15 Success Rate), which should be enough to move the ball against a Florida defense that can't stop the run, ranking outside the top-90 in EPA and Success Rate.
On the other side of the ball, you simply can't run on this dominant Kentucky defensive front. As a result, without the injured Graham Mertz, the entire offensive burden will fall on the shoulders of DJ Lagway.
While talented, he simply isn't ready yet to consistently beat this Wildcat secondary.
Removing his game against Samford, Lagway has gone just 29-of-47 for 300 yards with two touchdowns to four interceptions, and this will be the best defense he will have faced all year.
He’s destined to be under pressure from the UK front, which will likely lead to a couple of key mistakes against a Cats secondary that can get home while dropping seven or eight, forcing Lagway to drive the ball efficiently down the field. That’s a tall task for the frosh.
Give me the better staff to bounce back with plus matchups on both sides of the ball against an inexperienced freshman quarterback.
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier is 0-2 ATS against Kentucky since arriving in Gainesville, failing to cover by over 16 points per game.
Projection: Kentucky -2.8
Pick: Kentucky ML -120 or Better
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Oregon State +7.5 vs. UNLV
10 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
Do I love this Oregon State team? Absolutely not. The Beavers seem to get bet against every week in the market for good reason with an atrocious run defense and lackluster passing attack.
However, I have to play this spot after the line moved up over a touchdown in a game I project around 5.
Not only could UNLV get caught looking ahead to one of the biggest G5 games of the entire season on deck (against Boise State on a short week next Friday), but the defense has to be feeling the effects of playing 90-plus snaps in each of its past two games with the latest coming in altitude.
That could be problematic against a heavy Oregon State rush attack that wants to control the ball and lean on opposing defenses with its massive offensive line.
I also think the Rebels might be a bit overrated in the market for some of their past results. They caught Houston at the perfect time when the Cougars were still a mess with Donovan Smith at quarterback.
They also got a bit fortunate against a Kansas team that has been extremely disappointing.
I also believe they caught Fresno State at the perfect time with the Bulldogs not being prepared for new quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams after original starter Matthew Sluka decided to sit out for the season.
UNLV has also benefited from the best net field position in the country in addition to an FBS-leading +12 turnover margin.
Meanwhile, the Beavers have not had Lady Luck on their side in either category. Even quarterback Gevani McCoy, who certainly leaves a lot to be desired as a passer, has been a bit unfortunate.
I'm certainly concerned that UNLV will just gash this Beavers run defense that ranks 134th in Rush Success Rate.
However, this is a superb spot at a valuable price over a key number to buy low on the Beavers, who come off an upset loss at Nevada despite outgunning the Wolfpack by 140 net yards thanks to a -4 turnover margin.
Notable Nugget
Teams playing on the road the next week following a road game at the nine FBS stadiums with an elevation of at least 4,000 feet have gone just 90-120-5 ATS (42.9%) since 2005.
As road chalk in these spots, teams have gone a paltry 28-50-1 (35.9%) ATS, including just 16-39-1 (29.1%) when favored by more than four points.
Projection: Oregon State +4.8
Pick: Oregon State +7 or Better
