A full college football week is finally upon us. Week 1 kicks off on Thursday and runs all the way through Monday, giving us opportunities to cash in on matchups for five straight days.
Welcome to our Week 1 Pace Report.
With head coach and coordinator changes, the transfer portal and quarterbacks in new systems, we can't really rely on each team's pace numbers from last season.
Instead, we have to take it on a case-by-case basis. So, until Week 4, plays per minute and plays per game numbers will not be provided.
If you're new to our Pace Report, we'll take an in-depth look at the totals market using yards per play, Success Rate, Finishing Drives, plays per minute and more.
Using those metrics — along with a look at the weather and key injuries — the goal is to hopefully help bettors beat the market before Friday and Saturday morning.
Let's kick things off Week 1 off with three totals to target.
Akron vs. Ohio State Pick
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+48.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-48.5 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
Ohio State comes into the season with a lot of hype, owning the second-shortest odds to win the national title behind Georgia.
Chip Kelly has even come over from UCLA to lead the offense, which means Ohio State is going to play at a faster tempo. The Buckeyes' pace last season was on the slower side, averaging 26.8 seconds per play. Meanwhile, Kelly averaged 23.1 seconds per play.
The biggest thing with Kelly's offense — especially with Will Howard at quarterback and the tandem of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins at running back — is it's going to run the football.
Last season, OSU's rushing offense wasn't great. Quarterback Kyle McCord wasn't an effective passer, so teams could stack the box against the Buckeyes. That led to Ohio State finishing 69th in EPA/Rush and 128th in rushing explosiveness.
On the bright side for OSU, it sat 41st in Offensive Line Yards and has four starters back, plus Alabama transfer Seth McLaughlin at center.
On the other side of the spectrum, though, Howard wasn't a great passer for Kansas State last year. He put up just 7.3 yards per attempt with a very average PFF passing grade, and he didn't have very many big-time throws.
Image via PFF.
On the other side, Akron wasn't a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense last season. The Zips finished 58th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 79th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
They also return their top four tacklers while boasting seven players on the line who are 300-plus pounds after really lacking size up front in the past. Maybe it won't be so easy for Ohio State to break off a lot of huge runs.
Additionally, Akron allowed only 2.3 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks last year, which was the best mark in the nation, per Sports Info Solutions.
Offensively, Akron was a mess last season, finishing 120th in Offensive Success Rate. The Zips lose their starting quarterback, running back and top three pass-catchers, which won't make things any easier.
Ben Finley transfers in from Cal to play quarterback, but he wasn't that effective in his two starts last season — especially in the game against Washington in which he had a 38.8 PFF passing grade with five turnover-worthy plays.
Ohio State's defense proved to be one of the best in the nation last year and is absolutely loaded with talent once again, so there's a real question as to whether or not Akron scores in this game.
I only have 54.1 points projected for this game, so I like the value on under 59.5.
Pick: Under 59.5
Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M Pick
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +126 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
The total in this game is really low.
Collin Klein is now the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M after finding a lot of success with Will Howard at Kansas State. He ran a decently fast-paced offense in Manhattan, averaging 25.4 seconds per play to rank 49th in the nation.
The Aggies will focus on running the football in Klein's offense, as the former Wildcat ran it 55% of the time last season.
However, that's not a problem because their top two running backs, Le'Veon Moss and Amari Daniels, are both returning. Last season, the two of them combined for 5.1 yards per carry, and now they'll will have a very experienced offensive line in front of them.
Conner Weigman will be the starting quarterback, which makes this Texas A&M offense so exciting. In his four starts before getting injured last season, he put up a PFF passing grade of 90.9 and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt.
Klein's offense is designed to use the run game to open up the passing game. So, now that he has a better passing quarterback under center and much better wide receivers, the sky is the limit for this offense.
On the other side, Duke transfer Riley Leonard takes over as the starting quarterback at Notre Dame and will face his former coach in Mike Elko.
Before Leonard got injured last season, he was a very dangerous runner. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry and 5.5 yards after contact with 14 of his 53 runs going over 10 yards.
To make the match even better, Marcus Freeman brought in the perfect offensive coordinator to highlight Leonard's ability as a runner. Last season, Mike Denbrock coached LSU Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, who was the most dangerous running quarterback in the nation.
Daniels torched Texas A&M's defense last season for 126 yards on the ground on only 11 carries.
Nobody knows Leonard better than Elko, but stopping him in Denbrock's offense is another thing. Texas A&M allowed 5.3 yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks last season, per Sports Info Solutions, which ranked bottom-40 in college football.
Notre Dame picked up a couple of high-value transfers at receiver in Clemson's Beaux Collins and FIU's Kris Mitchell, who's a major deep threat with a 99.9 PFF receiving grade on throws over 20-plus yards.
The other key thing to watch with Denbrock is how much he picks up the pace. Notre Dame ranked 111th in seconds per play last season at 28.8, while Denbrock averaged 26.3 seconds per play at LSU.
I think the total is far too low for two offensive coordinators who are going to play at much faster tempos than these offenses have in the past.
I have 54.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 46.5 points.
Pick: Over 46.5 |
LSU vs. USC Pick
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 64 -112o / -108u | -185 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 64 -112o / -108u | +154 |
This should be a really fun game with a lot of points on Sunday night.
LSU is breaking in a new quarterback and new offensive coordinator, but the good news is there's a lot of familiarity with both of them. Joe Sloan has been promoted from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator, and Garrett Nussmeier — who backed up Jayden Daniels — is now the starting quarterback.
Nussmeier was really good in his lone start in the ReliaQuest Bowl against Wisconsin last season, throwing for 395 yards and three touchdowns.
A four-star prospect coming out of high school, Nussmeier is really accurate when it comes to throwing the ball, which should keep this LSU offense from suffering a significant drop-off from last season.
There will be a lot of new faces on the offensive side of the ball, but there's plenty of talent around Nussmeier. Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams will be the tandem at running back and were pretty impressive in limited action last season, both averaging over five yards per carry.
Brian Kelly also picked up big-play threat Aaron Anderson from Alabama at receiver to go along with Chris Hilton Jr. and Kyren Lacy, who both averaged over 17 yards per catch last season.
For USC, defense remains the biggest question mark this season. It's consistently been a problem for head coach Lincoln Riley, so he brought over D'Anton Lynn from UCLA.
Lynn had a great defense at UCLA, ranking 15th in EPA/Play Allowed.
However, tackling will be the biggest question for his first season with the Trojans. USC ranked 75th in tackling and 117th in EPA/Play Allowed, so if that doesn't get better with nine starters returning, LSU is going to have a lot of big plays.
Like LSU, Riley has a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball and a great quarterback in Miller Moss.
Moss dominated Louisville in the Holiday Bowl last season, throwing for six touchdowns with a PFF passing grade of 89.3. In addition, the former four-star recruit has spent two seasons learning Riley's offense, so he should be ready for Sunday.
Riley also brought in running back Jo'Quavious Marks from Mississippi State after a solid season in the SEC in which he put up a PFF rushing grade of 81.8.
USC once again has a couple of really talented receivers as well, so this offense should be stellar again.
One thing that always rings true under Lincoln Riley is that his offenses are going to play fast. The Trojans averaged 25.1 seconds per play last season, which ranked top-40 nationally.
Playing fast should allow them to torch an LSU defense that doesn't look like it's drastically improving. The Tigers couldn't stop anyone last season and gave up 6.0 yards per play. They also ranked 121st in EPA/Play Allowed and 125th in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Now, only six starters return on the defensive side, and with a lot of inexperience, I'm not sure there will be a drastic improvement.
It's also worth noting that betting the over when Riley is involved has always been profitable.
I have 69.8 points projected for this game, so I like the value of over 64 points.
Pick: Over 64
