Week 3 is in the books, and we saw plenty of headlines — including Georgia struggling to beat Kentucky, which resulted on Texas becoming No. 1 in the most recent AP Top 25 Poll.
There are a few high-profile games in Week 4, such as Tennessee at Oklahoma, Utah at Oklahoma State and USC at Michigan.
The goal of this weekly column is to find bets to make early in the week to get the best possible price before kickoff. That includes three games I'm targeting on Week 4's Saturday slate: Georgia Tech vs. Louisville, Toledo vs. Western Kentucky and Baylor vs. Colorado.
With money pouring in from the time lines open on Sunday until kickoff on Saturday, the market moves a lot over the course of a week. That means it's paramount to get the best price possible when betting on college football.
For example, a -6.5 favorite could move to -7.5 on Saturday morning, and then you run the risk of that team winning by one of the most likely outcomes — a seven-point victory — and you just lost your bet. It happens every week.
But that mess could have been avoided if the bet was locked in at -6.5 on Sunday afternoon.
In an attempt to beat the market and get the best price, we'll utilize our Action Network PRO projections, ESPN's SP+ and my own projections to create a consensus.
You hear all the time, "Process over results." The best way to know if the process is working is by closing line value (CLV). I'm here to help you hopefully get the most CLV possible early on in the week so you're sitting in a great position by the time we reach Saturday.
Georgia Tech vs Louisville Pick
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +310 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
Georgia Tech vs Louisville Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Louisville -11.5 | Louisville -13.7 | Louisville -12.8 |
Georgia Tech pulled off an upset against Florida State to begin the season but was dropped by Syracuse on the road in Week 2 before toppling VMI on Saturday.
The Yellow Jackets came into the season with a lot of hype on offense, and so far, they're moving the ball very effectively. Georgia Tech is averaging 6.7 yards per play, thanks in part to the improved play of Haynes King at quarterback.
King was a very average quarterback last season, but he's bounced back to average 8.9 yards per attempt with six touchdowns to only one interception in 2024.
In fact, King ranks second in college football in total EPA behind only Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart. While King throwing the ball well is crucial, the Georgia Tech offense focuses on its rushing attack.
King has been very effective on the ground himself, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. However, lead back Jamal Haynes hasn't been as effective. He was really good in the opener against Florida State, but he's been held to just 3.1 yards per carry in the Yellow Jackets' last two games against Syracuse and VMI.
King recorded two turnover-worthy plays and a PFF passing grade of just 60.4 in this game last season. If the Jackets can't run the ball, that will put a lot of pressure on King against the best secondary he's seen so far this season.
On the other side, Louisville has been one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country to this point in 2024. Granted, the Cardinals have played Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, but they rank second in the country in EPA/Rush.
They've featured a running back by committee so far, but all four backs are averaging over five yards per carry. They also have an offensive line with 172 career starts in front of them, so controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be key.
The concern for Georgia Tech is that new defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci runs an aggressive 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The Yellow Jackets lost a lot of size and depth up front after allowing 5.4 yards per carry last year and finishing 122nd in EPA/Rush Allowed.
They haven't seen a rushing attack even close to Louisville's, so it could be a long day for them defensively.
Offensively, Texas Tech transfer Tyler Shough takes over for Louisville after another injury-riddled season. He can be really effective if he's healthy, but that just hasn't been the case.
Shough has been really effective through two games and has a really good crop of receivers to throw. The former Oregon Duck has already racked up 581 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions.
Through four games, Georgia Tech comes in at 117th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, while Louisville ranks 31st. If Shough is on his game, he should be able to carve up this secondary.
This will be the Yellow Jackets' fifth straight game as Louisville comes off a bye. All three projection models show value on the Cardinals, so I would grab them at -10.
Pick: Louisville -10 (via BetMGM)
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Pick
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 59 -112o / -108u | -115 |
| Western Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 59 -112o / -108u | -105 |
Toledo vs Western Kentucky Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Toledo -3.0 | Toledo -4.6 | Toledo -3.9 |
Toledo pulled off a big upset against Mississippi State over the weekend, hammering the Bulldogs, 41-17, in Starkville.
The Rockets are one of the favorites to win the MAC this season and have showed it through their first three games. Head coach Jason Candle lost a lot from last year's team on both sides of the ball, as only eight total starters returned.
On offense, Tucker Gleason has settled in as the starting quarterback after backing up Dequan Finn last season. Through three games, he's already thrown for nine touchdown passes and is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt.
He also has an incredible group of receivers to throw to.
The Rockets have their top four pass-catchers back from last year, including Jerjuan Newton and Junior Vandeross, who are both averaging over 16 yards per catch and have combined for seven touchdowns this season.
They also have Jacquez Stuart back at running back after averaging 5.2 yards per carry in 2023 and earning second-team All-MAC honors.
Toledo will be facing a Western Kentucky secondary that got lit up by Alabama in the opener and by Middle Tennessee last weekend.
Blue Raiders quarterback Nicholas Vattiato threw for 456 yards and averaged 14.7 yards per attempt. Through three games, the Hilltoppers rank 132nd in EPA/Pass Attempt, so they're likely going to have a tough time stopping Toledo's passing attack.
Western Kentucky may also be without starting quarterback TJ Finley, who exited the game against Middle Tennessee with a leg injury and is currently being listed as day-to-day.
Backup Caden Veltkamp filled nicely last week, throwing for almost 398 yards and five touchdowns. However, this will be a much better secondary than that of the Blue Raiders.
Western Kentucky is still throwing the ball at one of the highest rates in the country, which means the offense is pretty reliant on the quarterback. The Tops average only 3.1 yards per carry, which is bad news considering Toledo held Mississippi State to just 66 total rushing yards.
With Finley's in question, Toledo may hold some value. Plus, all three projection models are already showing value on the Rockets.
Pick: Toledo -1 (via DraftKings)
Baylor vs Colorado Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -105 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -115 |
Baylor vs Colorado Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
| Action Network | Cunningham | SP+ |
| Baylor -6.0 | Baylor -3.6 | Baylor -4.2 |
Colorado looked much better on Saturday against a bad Colorado State team, but it's not going to find success with ease against Baylor.
It's pretty much the same story each week for Colorado.
Quarterback Shedeur Sanders has constantly been under pressure in Boulder, and this season has been no different. He's been pressured on 35% of his dropbacks through three games against teams that don't have the best pass-rushing units.
Baylor, meanwhile, has been really solid defensively so far this season, ranking second in Success Rate Allowed and top-50 in PFF pass-rushing grade.
Colorado has also had problems when it comes to run blocking.
Much like last year, the Buffaloes don't have a consistent rushing attack right now. They've run for a total of 169 yards through three games this season, and it doesn't look to be getting better anytime soon.
That makes this matchup difficult, as the Bears rank fourth in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and brought back almost everyone from last year.
That means all the pressure will be on Sanders and the passing game against a Baylor secondary that returns all four starters and ranks third nationally in EPA/Pass Allowed.
Baylor really struggled offensively last year, but it should improve with 10 starters returning.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson got the start against Air Force on Saturday with Toledo transfer Dequan Finn nursing a shoulder injury. It's unclear whether or not Finn will be available against Colorado, but I'm not sure Robertson is a significant downgrade.
The Lubbock, Texas, native went 18-of-24 for 284 yards and posted a PFF passing grade of 86.9 in the Bears' 31-3 victory over Air Force. Robertson also started the final game of the 2023 season against West Virginia and was nearly perfect, going 17-of-19 for 215 yards with a 91.9 PFF passing grade.
The key for Baylor, though, is effectively running the football to take the pressure off its quarterback.
Colorado has yet to show it can stop the run. The Buffaloes rank 90th in EPA/Rush Allowed, and that includes a game against one of the nation's worst ground attacks in Colorado State.
If Finn remains out, it shouldn't really impact the spread all that much. All three projection models show value on the Bears, so I'd grab them at +1.
Pick: Baylor +1 (-110 via Caesars)
