You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided this year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we cover weekly on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
After a recent pair of sweeps, our chalk let us down last week with Northwestern squandering a second-half lead and Florida sneaking in the backdoor against Tennessee.
Time to bounce back in Week 5, and yes, I can no longer rib Collin for laying 17 with Graham Mertz earlier this season after I bet Northwestern as a touchdown favorite.
For Week 5, we have a pair of short road conference favorites that can hopefully take care of business by more than a field goal away from the friendly confines.
YTD: 5-3, +1.7 units
Stuckey: Iowa State -3
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 59 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Kansas football is the talk of the college football world after a perfect 4-0 start straight up and against the spread with two outright upsets as a touchdown-plus underdog.
It's pretty impressive for a perennial doormat over the past decade-plus. Head coach Lance Leipold deserves a ton of credit for this quick turnaround, as does electric Heisman sleeper Jalon Daniels at quarterback. He's must-see TV on a weekly basis.
That said, I believe the love has gone too far after the Jayhawks, who do have a bit of regression looming in a number of categories.
From a point-spread perspective, Iowa State closed as a five-touchdown favorite in Ames against Kansas last season. It won that game, 59-7. I know Kansas has significantly improved since, and Iowa State lost plenty of production from that team, but that's still an insanely drastic line move — too drastic in my opinion.
Kansas still has an absolutely dreadful defense that Iowa State should have no issues moving the ball on. On the other side of the ball, the Cyclones will be the best defense Daniels has faced in 2022. Plus, the tremendous Iowa State defensive staff now has plenty of film on Daniels in this offensive scheme to help formulate a proper plan of attack.
Kansas will certainly get its share of points, but Iowa State should ultimately make a few more key stops.
Lastly, Matt Campbell has come through at a very high rate for bettors in this spot. As an underdog or favorite of three or less, he owns a gaudy 34-18 ATS record (65.4%), covering by almost five points per game on average.
Only Brian Kelly has been more profitable in those situations among current head coaches. That includes an absurd 26-12 ATS mark (68.4%) against Big 12 opponents with an average coverage margin of right around a touchdown.
Wilson: San Jose State -3
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -122 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +126 |
These teams have two different perceptions after a month of play that I believe are creating value for the road favorite Spartans.
San Jose State relied on the transfer portal to fill multiple holes on the roster, including quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, who transferred in from fellow Mountain West foe Hawaii.
Last year, Cordeiro had one of the best games of his career in Laramie against these same Pokes. He threw for over 300 yards and ran for 86 yards with four total touchdowns.
As you see often with transfer-reliant teams, San Jose State struggled in its opener with FCS Portland State, needing a late score to avoid the upset. However, the Spartans looked much better in the following game on the road at Auburn. They actually led at the half in a game where Cordeiro threw for over 300 yards. Things continued trending in the right direction last week in a dominant 34-6 victory over Western Michigan.
Speaking of the transfer portal, no other team lost more to it than Wyoming. The Cowboys had one of the worst offseason TARP numbers, resulting in one of the least-experienced teams in FBS.
Given all of the turnover, Wyoming has exceeded expectations, but it's also been quite fortunate in a pair of comeback three-point victories over Tulsa (in double OT) and a shorthanded Air Force team that had a 70% post-game win expectancy.
Digging into Wyoming's statistical profiles, the Pokes have major issues on defense. They rank 130th in tackling and aren't generating any Havoc or pass rush. Additionally, they rank outside the top 100 in coverage, signaling a big day for Cordeiro and a very talented receiver room.
Meanwhile, the experienced Spartans defense (which filled the few departed players with some promising transfers) has especially excelled in keeping opponents out of the end zone. They've allowed just 2.7 points on 15 opponent trips into scoring position.
Their very strong defensive line should control the line of scrimmage against a limited Wyoming offense en route to a conference road victory for a Spartans team trending in the right direction.
