College Football Player Props, Picks
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We hit the jackpot last week.
With our ladder strategy in place, we hit a +500 on Avery Johnson’s rushing total, and my play on Matthew Sluka to hit triple digits on the ground against Kansas paid out at 3-1.
This week, we’re busting out the ladder again in Western New York and riding the hottest hand in pass-catching west of the Mississippi.
Here are my top two college football player props for Stanford's Ashton Daniels and San Jose State's Nick Nash on Friday, Sept. 20.
Stanford vs. Syracuse Player Props
Ashton Daniels Over 31.5 Rushing Yards
If books simply refuse to appropriately adjust Daniels’ rushing totals, I have no choice but to keep hammering his overs.
In the opener against TCU, Daniels' rushing total closed at 23.5 yards. My pitch for the over was a simple one. Head coach Troy Taylor loves to run his quarterbacks, and Daniels is no exception.
In the past five seasons, there isn’t a coach in America who runs his quarterbacks more than Taylor. Over that large sample size, his quarterbacks have a 30% rush share. That’s why I advocated for a ladder strategy — a unit on over 23.5, a half-unit on 40-plus and a quarter-unit on 60-plus.
How did Daniels perform against the Horned Frogs? Despite taking four sacks, he still reached 87 rushing yards on 17 carries. From designed runs to zone reads and scrambles, everything is on the table for Daniels to get 15-plus carries per game.
Now, luckily for us, he was pulled early two weeks ago against Cal Poly and finished with only 41 yards on nine carries.
Had it been competitive, he would have played four quarters instead of three and gotten very close to his average number of touches on the ground.
In two games this season, Syracuse has drawn a pocket passer in Ohio’s Parker Navarro and a dual-threat in Georgia Tech’s Haynes King. Navarro still reached 40 yards on the ground despite taking four sacks. Haynes King wasn’t sacked but only carried the ball six times against the Orange. No worries, though — he still hit 67 yards.
The reason for this? Lousy coverage.
Syracuse ranks 117th in coverage, per PFF, and this explains why they’re playing a lot of soft zone coverage. Checkdown throws and running lanes are available with Syracuse playing Cover 3 or quarters on 61.7% of their defensive snaps.
While quarterbacks have racked up rushing yards, the defensive strategy is working for defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson. He’ll accept death by a thousand cuts, and those free rushing yards should be enjoyed by Daniels.
I’m going right back to the well with a ladder strategy here in the JMA Wireless Dome — one unit on over 31.5 rushing yards, a half-unit on over 50 (+200) and a quarter-unit on over 70 (+400).
Pick: Ashton Daniels Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
San Jose State vs. Washington State
Nick Nash ATD + Over 149.5 Rec. Yards (+199)
Washington State is riding high after upsetting its in-state rival in the Apple Cup. Given the offseason drama, it was one of the most emotionally satisfying wins in the program’s history.
That naturally sets the Cougars up for a letdown against the Spartans. But even if Wazzu shows up, its pass defense will continue to underwhelm.
Washington State’s overmatched secondary is giving up 301 yards per game through the air, and that includes a game against FCS Portland State.
Texas Tech shredded the Cougs for 343 yards, and Washington found great success as well with 326 yards in the Apple Cup despite playing two quarterbacks.
Can SJSU keep that going? Early returns would indicate yes.
Ken Niumatalolo is one of the most respected coaches in the sport and built a consistent winner at Navy by utilizing the triple option.
When SJSU signed him to a five-year deal in January, there was immediate speculation as to what his offense would look like in the Bay Area. He put those option fears to rest by hiring Craig Stutzmann away from Texas State.
Stutzmann’s “Spread-'n-Shred” attack positioned SJSU to throw it in the 60% ratio neighborhood. Through three games, the Spartans have thrown it 56% of the time (32nd) while averaging over 35 attempts.
Where are these attempts going? Right to Nick Nash.
The former quarterback-turned-receiver has grown into his new role. In 2022, he transitioned to receiver with limited success. But last fall, he took to the position and became a big-play threat for the Spartans with 15.2 yards per catch and eight touchdowns.
Well, now he’s a burgeoning superstar. Through three games, he already has 34 catches on a staggering 45 targets. Those opportunities have translated into 485 yards and six touchdowns.
He also has the third-highest receiving grade, according to Pro Football Focus.
He works almost exclusively out of the slot, so he avoids bump-and-run coverage and exploits smaller cornerbacks. His 6-foot-3 frame and excellent ball skills make him a matchup problem for any defense, let alone Wazzu’s woeful secondary.
Last week, Washington slot receiver Giles Jackson went for 8-162-1 against Wazzu. He was the marked man going into the game, and WSU couldn’t cook up a game plan to contain him. That’s what we’re in store for on Friday night.
Pick: Nick Nash Anytime TD + Over 149.5 Receiving Yards (+199)
