Black Friday bargains are what get people out of bed (or to the keyboard) on the day after Thanksgiving.
What motivates me is the opportunity to grab mispriced player props before the market moves.
This week, that means backing Ashton Jeanty during his historic run at Barry Sanders’ rushing record and fading a specific Georgia ball carrier as the Dawgs potentially welcome back a major contributor in their running back room.
Let's dive into my college football player props for Ashton Jeanty and Nate Frazier on Nov. 29.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of Mike Calabrese's college football player prop picks for today's slate of Black Friday games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Oregon State vs. Boise State Player Prop
Ashton Jeanty Over 177.5 Rushing Yards
It’s “Kegs and Eggs” time in Boise, as the Broncos and Beavers kick off their Black Friday game at 10 a.m. local time.
They could play this game at 2 a.m., and it wouldn’t make a difference for the Oregon State run defense. The Beavers defense checks in at 125th in Rush Success, allowing 5.28 yards per carry (123rd) and ranking 121st in PFF’s run defense metric.
This is the ideal defense to face when hoping to pad your rushing stats.
Does Jeanty want to pad his stats? Absolutely. Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record is just over the Idahoan horizon. Sanders ripped off 2,628 yards during Heisman season in 1988. Jeanty now sits at 2,062 yards with at least three games remaining (Oregon State, MWC title, bowl).
He’s also within spitting distance of Sanders’ rushing touchdown record. Sanders crossed the goal line 37 times, and Jeanty is 10 back entering Friday’s game with Oregon State.
So, why is this number the most reasonable in recent weeks? Last week against Wyoming, his rushing prop was out in the market at 188.5 yards. The week before against San Jose State it was nearly two bills, settling in at 198.5.
Why is the trend line heading down? Injury concerns, plain and simple.
His coach, Spencer Danielson, has addressed his injuries in two ways. First off, he’s acknowledged their existence, remarking this week that Jeanty is “banged up.”
But in the same breath, he made sure to impart to the Boise press corps that “Ashton’s a warrior.”
Jeanty exited the Broncos' narrow win over Wyoming with a midgame injury in the third quarter but would return down the stretch, setting them up for the game-winning touchdown by rushing it four times for 53 yards on a single drive.
Despite rushing it just 19 times, he still finished with 169 yards on the ground at an 8.9 yards-per-carry clip. And that last stat is the key here; he needs to rip off big runs to avoid getting pulled in a blowout before he hits this number.
Oregon State has been blown out by 28 and 37 in recent weeks. This explains the rushing total discount we’re getting, which is the second lowest of the entire season on Jeanty.
I would play this up to 183.5 and will hedge on the blowout angle by playing Boise on the alternate line -30.5 at +300.
Pick: Ashton Jeanty Over 177.5 Rushing Yards
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Player Prop
Nate Frazier Under 81.5 Rushing Yards
Trevor Etienne is still working his way back into game shape after suffering a rib injury in October. He’s given it a go since then but has clearly not been the same back.
Kirby Smart said that while he’s regained his speed in practice — tracked at 21 MPH by their staff — Etienne “hasn't been able to do anything with us."
What that means is that he isn’t getting practice reps with their starters, and given Georgia's road ahead (SEC Championship, CFP), it’s highly likely that Etienne sits or is placed on a restricted touch count against Georgia Tech.
That means Nate Frazier is in line for his third straight game with a bell-cow workload.
Against Tennessee, he toted the rock 19 times, and his diet increased against UMass. He finished with 136 yards and three scores on 21 carries against the Minutemen.
But here’s the thing — Georgia Tech’s run defense is a lot closer to Tennessee’s than UMass’. The Rambling Wreck defense checks in at 31st against the run, 12th in Line Yards and second in Stuff Rate.
The Yellow Jackets also strive to shorten games with long drives. Playing keep-away is the name of the game for GT, and Georgia isn’t in a position where it needs to run up the score to impress the CFP committee. This is a game it'll want to survive.
I anticipate Smart and his staff will give Chauncey Bowens touches in this game as well. The freshman has carried it 10 times in the past two weeks, emerging from a depleted running back room.
Branson Robinson has worked his way back from an MCL sprain and was listed earlier in the week as a day-to-day. He’s been training for weeks to return, and according to Smart, has been in all team meetings and “did some good things” in practice this week.
If Robinson is a go, it’s likely we’ll see Frazier’s rush attempts dip below 15 in this game. At that point, I love this under against a salty Georgia Tech front.
If we receive confirmation that Robinson will play ahead of this kickoff, I would play this under down to the mid-70s.
Pick: Nate Frazier Under 81.5 Rushing Yards
