College Football Player Props, Picks
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The first two weeks of the college football season have served up sleepy Thursday and Friday slates, to put it lightly. That’s not the case here in Week 3.
Friday the 13th has the potential to be scary good.
A ranked matchup in the Big 12 has major fireworks written all over it, and a G5 upstart could put Kansas on upset alert in Lawrence.
Let's take a look at my college football player props for Kansas State's Avery Johnson, Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan and UNLV's Matthew Sluka on Friday, Sept. 13.
UNLV vs. Kansas Player Prop Pick
Matthew Sluka 100+ Rushing Yards (+300)
May I offer up one of the country’s most accomplished running quarterbacks to kick off our Friday night college football player props?
Matthew Sluka has started 38 games in his collegiate career and has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in 16 of those contests (42%).
Having watched dozens of his games at Holy Cross, I can confirm he's not the sliding type. Once he breaks it into the second and third levels of a defense, he’s hunting down undersized defenders and plowing them over.
Another reason to feel confident in a Sluka breakout performance is Brennan Marion’s offense, which is chock-full of misdirection and unique play designs.
For example, you’ll see two running backs flank Sluka on his right or left side. This unique alignment creates zone reads, multiple option opportunities and QB powers with two lead blockers.
Sluka is already averaging 10 carries per game, but in an underdog role, it’s likely that UNLV accelerates its tempo (92nd) in the hopes of catching Kansas out of position.
If the Rebels are forced to play from behind and throw the ball more, I think that’s where Sluka could hit a huge run or two with unscripted scrambles.
Joe DiSalvo of theCFFsite projects Sluka to have the third most rushing yards this week among G5 quarterbacks (49 yards), but I still view this market to be undervaluing his breakout potential. I already mentioned his career rushing performances but wanted to point out that in underdog roles against Army and Boston College last fall, he called his own number more often. He ran for 302 yards against the Cadets and Eagles, nearly upsetting both on the road. When it’s crunch time, he wants to keep the ball in his hands and at 3:1 it’s worth rolling the dice with UNLV’s hot hand.
Pick: Matthew Sluka 100+ Rushing Yards (+300)
Arizona vs. Kansas State Player Prop Pick
Avery Johnson 50+ Rushing Yards (+104)
Early season returns in college football can be extremely misleading. When teams are facing outmatched opponents, particularly FCS schools, play-call sheets get pared down and superstars are handled with kid gloves.
Limited snaps and touches are commonplace for irreplaceable players. Avery Johnson fits that bill.
The electric dual-threat quarterback received just three carries in Kansas State's opener against UT Martin, with the coaching staff keen on protecting their young star.
Last week, while facing Tulane, K-State was forced to play from behind, and as a result, ran the ball just eight times in the final 22 minutes of game action against the Green Wave.
These two games have skewed his rushing props. His number against Arizona is set at a pedestrian 45.5. My projections call for Johnson to run for 61 yards, and theCFFsite projects him in the 55-yard range.
The reason I’m willing to play an alternate total at plus-money is that Arizona has a real problem stopping dual-threat quarterbacks.
In Week 1, the Wildcats faced New Mexico and Devon Dampier. The Lobos quarterback consistently hurt them with his legs, finishing the game with 130 yards on the ground.
The following week against FCS Northern Arizona, the Wildcats were once again flummoxed by a running quarterback. Ty Pennington finished with 39 rushing yards, but that included sacks knocking 18 yards off of his total.
I would advocate for a ladder strategy here as well, all the way up to the 100-yard mark, which is currently available in the market at close to +500.
Pick: Avery Johnson 50+ Rushing Yards (+104)
Arizona vs. Kansas State Player Prop Pick
Tetairoa McMillan 2+ Touchdowns (+400)
Let’s stay with this Arizona-Kansas State game and swing for the fences with a multi-touchdown game from a future NFL millionaire.
Last week, Arizona kept its Maserati in the garage. It didn’t need T-Mac to beat Northern Arizona, and it didn’t want to put any new wrinkles on film for Kansas State.
But let it be known, McMillan has top-10 NFL Draft pick talent and the ability to score from anywhere on the field.
At 6-foot-5, he’s a red-zone mismatch, particularly when you consider that K-State doesn’t have a cornerback who stands above 6-foot.
He also proved in the opener against New Mexico that he can bust the big play, scoring three touchdowns from 40-plus yards out (40, 69 and 78). The Mike Evans comparisons are justified.
Kansas State also looked powerless to stop Tulane’s passing attack last week on the road, giving up 342 yards. Despite facing one FCS team already, the Wildcats' pass defense has surrendered nine pass plays of at least 20 yards to rank 117th.
When you need to score twice to cash a ticket, opportunities are paramount.
In the opener, Noah Fifita targeted T-Mac 15 times. This isn’t a new development. In Fifita and McMillan’s last five games together against FBS opponents, McMillan has been targeted 14 times per game.
Fifita is going to his superstar early and often, and I’m not sure Kansas State will have an answer.
At 4-1, the value is just too good to pass up should this turn out to be a high-scoring Big 12 affair.
Pick: Tetairoa McMillan 2+ Touchdowns (+400)
