After a Group of Five appetizer on Friday night, we’re ready for the main course on Championship Weekend. That means targeting household names in the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC.
For a few key superstars, the bright lights are going to be a bad thing on Saturday. The opposite could be true for a pair of Nittany Lion playmakers who are surging at the right time. Here’s how I’m seeing the board on Championship Saturday.
Let's dive into my college football player props for Arizona State's Cam Skattebo, Georgia's Carson Beck, Penn State's Tyler Warren and more on Saturday, Dec. 7.
College Football Player Props
- Cam Skattebo Under 119.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Carson Beck Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Tyler Warren 2+ TDs & Nicholas Singleton Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (+860)
Iowa State vs. Arizona State Player Prop
Cam Skattebo Under 119.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
This rushing total has been sweat-free for Skattebo this season. He’s either blown past it or fallen significantly short of it.
In his six performances where he cleared this number, he averaged 180 per game on the ground. In the five instances where he fell short, he averaged just 63 yards.
So, which Skattebo will we be getting on Saturday? The answer lies in the run defense he’s facing.
Iowa State has a tremendous pass defense that ranks 11th nationally in coverage and third in yards per game allowed (156.9). Its run defense is far more middle-of-the-road, but with Arizona State’s top receiving weapon sidelined due to injury, I anticipate the Cyclones selling out to stop Skattebo.
When the Cyclones have loaded eight men in the box this season, they’ve graded out as a top-15 run defense. Both Skattebo and the Sun Devils have graded out in the 60s in terms of Success Rate when facing loaded boxes.
That’s why the loss of wide receiver Jordyn Tyson looms so large after he racked up 75 catches for 1,101 yards and 10 touchdowns over the course of the season.
This number is mainly predicated on Iowa State’s performance against other top backs like Kansas’ Devin Neal, UCF’s RJ Harvey, Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks and Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson. That quartet of superstars averaged 155 yards against the Cyclones on the ground.
But with selling out to stop Skattebo a likelihood, those stats become less meaningful.
Joe DiSalvo of theCFFsite projects Skattebo for 93 yards, while my projections call for him to just cross over the century mark.
He’ll impact this game for sure but may do more damage in the passing game than on the ground. His 468 receiving yards are one of the highest figures among full-time running backs in the entire country.
I would play this under down into the 115 neighborhood depending on the juice.
Pick: Cam Skattebo Under Under 119.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 115)
Georgia vs. Texas Player Prop
Carson Beck Under 244.5 Passing Yards (-114)
I was shocked to see this number above 230 yards.
Beck has fallen far short of this number three times this season against Kentucky, Texas and Ole Miss, and he limboed beneath it a fourth time with 240 yards against Auburn.
In that matchup with Texas, he was absolutely dreadful. Despite attempting 41 passes, he ran up just 175 yards through the air and was picked off three times.
Texas ate his lunch, and you can make a strong argument that the Longhorns have only gotten better against the pass since that meeting.
The Texas defense is the only unit in America that ranks top-five in both coverage and pass rush.
It’s also clear as day that Georgia doesn't have the playmakers on the perimeter to make Texas pay outside of Arian Smith. Georgia’s big-play threat averages close to 17 yards per reception. But in the Dawgs' meeting with the Horns down on the 40 Acres, Smith finished with six receptions for 32 yards.
In its meeting with UT, Georgia had three official drops, but head coach Kirby Smart claimed after the game that his staff would have assigned blame to the receiving corps on five or six other incompletions.
Drops have plagued this team this season and play a factor in this handicap as well. I will be playing Beck's under down to 235.5.
Pick: Carson Beck Under 244.4 Passing Yards (Play to 235.5)
Penn State vs. Oregon Player Props
Tyler Warren 2+ TDs & Nicholas Singleton Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (+860)
Tyler Warren is the first tight end in Penn State program history to reach 10 touchdowns in a single season with six receiving scores, four rushing and one passing.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki loves to get him involved in the red zone, both on the ground and in the passing game. This bodes well for Warren to find pay dirt twice against an Oregon defense that's far from elite inside its own 20-yard line.
The Ducks rank 72nd in red-zone defense and have struggled against a few Big Ten tight ends this season. The trio of Michigan State’s Jack Velling, Ohio State’s Gee Scott and Michigan’s Colston Loveland averaged over five receptions and 70 yards against UO.
Despite being a marked man, Warren’s target share and rushing opportunities remain high. Warren has been targeted 39 times in the past four games, and Kotelnicki has dialed up 11 carries for him over that stretch as well.
His usage would have been even higher had it not been for an early hook against Purdue in a Penn State runaway.
Given his recent workload, both my projections and those from theCFFsite call for Warren to receive 10 targets and at least three carries.
As for Singleton, he’s trending up after a midseason swoon.
Singleton was pulled after just one second-half series against Purdue alongside the rest of the Nittany Lions' starters. Despite just 10 quarters of action across the last three games, Singleton has averaged 88 yards from scrimmage.
He looked like the Singleton of old against Minnesota and Maryland, breaking eight tackles combined against the Gophers and Terps.
He also received nine targets in the last two games, demonstrating Kotelnicki’s commitment to feeding him the rock.
I’m bullish on Penn State’s chances of sparking an upset in Indianapolis, and it'll need to rely on its top two offensive weapons to get it done.
The payout on this parlay feels generous given their recent usage, and I would play it down to +800.
Pick: Tyler Warren 2+ TDs & Nicholas Singleton Over 94.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (+860 · Play to +800)
