Friday nights have been good to this column.
Last week, we hit Stanford's Ashton Daniels' rushing total and cashed a Nick Nash parlay at +199.
This week, we spice things up with a standard -110 prop and a swing-for-the-fence 13-1 moonshot. Here’s how I’m seeing the board.
Check out my college football player props and picks for Friday, Sept. 27.
College Football Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Virginia Tech vs. Miami Player Props
Cam Ward TD + Yards Parlay
Maybe it’s been the two decades worth of mediocrity in the ACC, but I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop with this Miami team.
The Canes have looked fantastic through four games, but they’ve played a lifeless Florida team, an FCS opponent, a Ball State team that’s heading toward its fourth straight losing season and a South Florida defense that’s truly awful (116th SP+).
I’m not ready to crown Miami “back” after facing that murderers’ row.
So, how do I want to go about fading the Canes here? With a pre-October Cam Ward-pumpkin parlay. Let me explain.
Ward has been a walking turnover for most of his career. In 2022 and 2023, He led the nation in turnover-worthy plays with a staggering 41 and lost seven fumbles last fall, struggling with pressure in the pocket. This season, he has faced an FCS opponent and three FBS teams whose average pass rush grade from PFF is 83rd.
Virginia Tech will be a rude awakening for Ward. The Hokies have a fierce pass rush (16th, per PFF) that has gotten to the quarterback 13 times already this season to rank seventh nationally.
They’ve also forced four fumbles this season, which has been a calling card of Chris Marve’s defense since he arrived in Blacksburg.
I anticipate pressure, Hokies ripping at the ball, and Ward making some mistakes in this game.
So, here’s how I’m building this parlay. Miami’s first drive ends in a turnover, Ward finishes with fewer than three passing touchdowns and under 308.5 passing yards. This parlay pays out at +1300 over at FanDuel.
Pick: Miami 1st Drive TO + Ward Under 3 Passing TDs + Ward Under 308.5 Passing Yards
Washington vs. Rutgers Player Props
Kyle Monangai Over 101.5 Rushing Yards
This may take the cake as the strangest conference matchup of 2024. Separated by 2,800 miles, the Huskies and Scarlet Knights have met only twice despite playing 290 combined seasons of football.
On the field, these teams have different identities. Greg Schiano’s “keep chopping” mentality is hardwired into his players. Rutgers wants to pound the rock (seventh in Rush percentage), control the football (5th in time of possession) and lean on a salty defense (24th in SP+).
Washington is a finesse team, at least by comparison. And this offense really has juice when it throws the football. Jedd Fisch’s passing attack is averaging two pass completions of 30-plus yards per game.
The angle I’m playing here is that Rutgers has the defense to give Will Rogers and the UW passing attack issues, while the Washington run defense isn’t well-positioned to shut down Kyle Monangai.
Washington’s run numbers look pretty decent at first glance, but game flow has had a ton to do with that. The Huskies overwhelmed Weber State, Eastern Michigan and Northwestern, forcing all three to abandon the run in the second half.
Not only is Rutgers a great running team, but it excels even when teams are keyed into what it’s doing.
With seven defenders in the box, Rutgers is a top-10 rushing team on inside and outside zone run concepts, according to CoachesByTheNumbers. The Knights simply execute and consistently move defenders in the run game.
That brings me to my favorite prop here: Monangai over 101.5 rushing yards. Across his last 10 games, Rutgers’ bell cow is averaging 123.2 yards per game on the ground.
He’s averaged 21.8 carries in those contests, and with an immobile quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis sharing the backfield, it’s likely that he’ll hit 20 carries again against the Huskies.
Opportunity and exceptional blocking makes this my favorite prop on Friday night.
