A fridge Mountain West Conference game could force the Rams and Pokes to rely on pure bully ball on the ground, while a shootout in the Lone Star State promises fireworks and the feel of an offseason 7-on-7 scrimmage.
My top college football player props for Friday feature North Texas quarterback Chandler Rogers, UTSA quarterback Owen McCown and Wyoming running back Harrison Waylee.
Let's dive into my favorite college football player props for the NCAAF games on Friday, Nov. 15.
Friday College Football Player Props Picks
- Harrison Waylee Anytime TD + Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (+159)
- Owen McCown & Chandler Morris Over 399.5 Passing Yards (+1038)
Harrison Waylee Anytime TD + Over 99.5 Rushing Yards (+159)
College football, in the age of NIL, free player movement, COVID bonus years, and obscure redshirting rules, can be a bit confusing.
Harrison Waylee, for example, has been playing college football since 2020, and thanks to redshirting rules, will be back next fall for his sixth year of eligibility.
While this season won’t count against his eligibility clock, the yardage he’s planning on racking up down the stretch will very much count.
Last week, in his first game of the season, Waylee came in cold and took no time heating up. He toted the rock 27 times, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown.
The offense looked reborn with their diminutive bell cow back in the mix. The Pokes scored 49 points against New Mexico, and Waylee’s work on the ground opened things up downfield for freshman passer Kaden Anderson.
The three-star freshman out of famed Southlake Carroll is a mountain of a man at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, and he gave Wyoming fans a taste of the future with a 341 total yard, four total touchdown performance.
The Pokes are going to give the Rams a run for their money in this game, and Anderson and Waylee give this offense perfect balance.
Now, Colorado State may be undefeated in MWC play, but its underlying stats indicate it may be a paper tiger, particularly on defense. The Rams are just 87th in Stuff Rate and are barely inside the top 70 in yards per carry allowed.
And this statistical résumé came against a clown car of bad teams. Colorado State has feasted on Northern Colorado, UTEP, Air Force, New Mexico and Nevada — far from a stacked deck, even by G5 standards.
The Rams have only drawn a single rush-centric team that resides inside the top 20 in yards per game. Oregon State racked up 251 yards on the ground and five scores in its overtime thriller with the Rams. Anthony Hankerson, the Beavers' feature back, ran it 26 times for 113 yards and a score.
I foresee a very similar script for Waylee. The only difference is that Waylee has far more pop as a home-run threat than Hankerson.
Waylee’s yards-per-carry average is two yards higher than Hankerson’s. When you thumb through his career game logs, long runs pop off the page: 62, 66, 68, 75 and 76. He can get more than half of his rushing total in this game on a single carry.
As for his nose for the end zone, when Waylee gets more than 10 carries in a game, he’s found the end zone in seven of his last 10 games.
I would play this at any number north of +150.
Owen McCown & Chandler Morris Both 400+ Pass Yards (+1038)
Friday Night Lights in the Lone Star State with two homegrown gunslingers? Yes, please.
This game has the highest total on the board in Week 12 at 73. The secondaries involved look like they feature five strangers who just met minutes before kickoff. Blown coverages, huge chunk plays and points await the Mean Green and Roadrunners’ quarterbacks in this one.
Let’s double-click into these pass defenses.
Up first, North Texas. The Mean Green can’t cover anyone (110th), limit aerial explosives (117th) or force teams to throw underneath (8.4 YPA, 111th).
South Alabama’s Gio Lopez killed them through the air (432 yards), as did a trio of Texas Tech passers (354), FAU’s Cam Fancher (351) and Memphis’ Seth Henigan (319).
Game flow and a matchup with Army have dressed up their pass defense numbers. Don’t be fooled: In a shootout, UNT has nowhere to hide on the back end.
The Roadrunners’ secondary isn’t much better. Sticking with receivers (114th), plays of 30-plus yards through the air (129th), opposing passers’ yards per attempt average (8.7, 127th), it’s all a trainwreck for UTSA.
The only thing the Roadrunners can do that UNT cannot is get to the passer. Jeff Traylor’s team is ninth in pass rush, per PFF, while UNT is barely on the FBS spectrum (133rd).
Now for this game prop to hit, we need lots of plays. Well, both of these teams are willing to play at warp speed. The tempo report couldn’t be better: UNT ranks fourth in seconds per play, while UTSA is ninth.
This game will flirt with 160 plays and 80 pass attempts.
I’m super confident in UNT to bomb away the whole game, and UTSA’s offense has only been improving down the stretch. In UTSA’s last three games, the Roadrunners have averaged 42.3 points behind McCown’s emergence as a star. In the past month, McCown has averaged 348 total yards per game with 13 total touchdowns.
Our friends over at theCFFsite project Morris and McCown as the top two passers in Week 12 with a total of 655 yards forecast between the two of them. Count on River Walk fireworks on Friday night.
