Through two rounds, the College Football Playoff was taking on the look and feel of the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Top teams were dump-trucking underdogs, and bettors were left wondering how they could make these games interesting.
Well, after an electric Orange Bowl between Notre Dame and Penn State, I’m hoping college football keeps the hits coming in Dallas.
Here are two props that I really like — one in the coin-flip neighborhood and the other a bowl season-making long shot that I believe to be criminally mispriced.
Let's dive into my college football player props for Ohio State vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinal on Friday, Jan. 10.
College Football Player Props
- Bert Auburn Over 6.5 Points (+106)
- Jeremiah Smith & Matthew Golden 10+ Receiving Yards in Each Quarter (+3500)
Bert Auburn Over 6.5 Points
+106 at FanDuel
In seven of his last eight games, Auburn has exceeded 6.5 points. And that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given the fact that Texas has averaged 30 points per game during this stretch.
But Texas’ offensive ceiling isn’t the reason I’m interested in Auburn’s over in this spot. It’s Ohio State's red-zone defense.
The Buckeyes play phenomenal defense inside their own 20-yard line, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on just 41.4% of their trips, which ranks fourth nationally.
This is critical because the Texas offense has reliably driven the ball all season long, closing the regular season 25th in Quality Drives. I anticipate the Longhorns crossing into Ohio State territory with regularity in what could be a shootout on the fast track at Jerry World.
But much like UT’s games with Georgia, I foresee the Longhorns’ drives stalling out when they get within spitting distance of the end zone.
In their second meeting with UGA, Texas relied heavily on its senior placekicker, trotting him out for six field-goal attempts.
Inside 40 yards, he’s nails (10-for-11), and while he’s had some high-profile misses from 40-plus, head coach Steve Sarkisian still has enough faith in him to give him the opportunity to put points on the board inside 55 yards.
The script here is simple: Texas, aided by an inspired Sark game plan, moves the ball consistently, while Ohio State stiffens in the red zone, allowing Auburn to attempt two or three field goals in this game.
One final element that's trending toward a big game for Auburn is that Texas has been tremendously efficient late in the first half. The Longhorns rank second nationally in “Middle 8” margin, with Auburn connecting on two field goals in the final two minutes of the first half.
Some coaches act conservatively late in the first half, while others have an attacking mentality. Sark is the latter and has faith in Auburn to cash in on his opportunities.
Jeremiah Smith & Matthew Golden 10+ Receiving Yards in Each Quarter
+3500 at FanDuel
Let’s start with Matthew Golden for a moment.
The clear No. 2 in the Longhorns' receiving corps has played second fiddle to Isaiah Bond this season. But Bond has been banged up multiple times and enters this game with a questionable tag next to his name on the official injury report.
With Bond dinged up lately, Golden has received a whopping 27 targets in the last three games. Those opportunities have translated to 17 receptions and 360 receiving yards.
Even if Bond guts it out and plays on an ankle that's clearly less than 100%, Golden will retain his status as the new go-to receiver for Quinn Ewers.
And from a game flow perspective, it’s more likely than not that Texas will be playing from behind for portions of this game. If the Longhorns are trailing, that will mean more throws going Golden’s way.
Now for the easy part, Jeremiah Smith. The breakout true freshman has 290 receiving yards in the CFP thus far, and he wasn’t utilized at all in the fourth quarter against Tennessee.
As Dan Patrick used to say, Smith is “en fuego” right now, and Chip Kelly is only finding more ways to get him loose deep in opposing secondaries.
You can throw it to him at the line of scrimmage in the screen/RPO game, on quick slants or allow him to use his body control and vertical to "Moss" defenders deep downfield.
The 17 targets he’s received during Ohio State’s playoff run indicate that feeding him has been and will remain a top priority for an offense that's leaning into its aerial potential following the Michigan letdown.
The 10-yard threshold in each quarter doesn’t scare me away at all with Smith because he’s been a big-play threat both in terms of target depth and his monster YAC capabilities all season long.
It’s really boiling down to the question, “Will he catch a pass in each quarter?” As long as we avoid another Ohio State runaway, I think the answer is yes.
Game flow will undoubtedly play a faction here, but at 35-1, I can’t wait to roll the dice on a prop that I believe is badly mispriced by nearly double.
