Week 7 of the college football season is here. How does the season go so fast?
It's best to take advantage of what Saturday has to offer by diving into some college football player props.
Here are our four favorite player prop picks for Saturday, Oct. 12's slate.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | |
| 4 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Cal vs. Pitt Player Prop
Eli Holstein Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135)
Holstein has been racking up yards and touchdown passes, but he's due for a bad game.
He only has a 63.9 PFF Passing grade for the season, mainly because he chucks the ball up too often. He's made nine turnover-worthy plays in five games, compared to just eight big-time throws.
He also collapses under pressure, with his YPA dropping from 9.7 in a clean pocket to 7.7 in a crowded one.
Additionally, Pitt running back Desmond Reid might be out for this game. Reid was Holstein's main target last week, as the two connected for over 100 yards on 11 receptions.
Without Reid, Holstein will have to throw down the field more often, which will likely result in an interception.
Cal can pressure Holstein. The Bears rank in the top 50 nationally in Havoc and PFF's Pass Rush grades. They've also generated 11 interceptions this year while ranking 29th in EPA per Pass allowed.
There's a good chance Holstein throws a pick on Saturday.
Pick: Eli Holstein Over 0.5 Interceptions (-135 · Play to -150)
Arizona vs. BYU Player Prop
Noah Fifita Over 249.5 Pass Yards (-115)
By Cody Goggin
Arizona wants Noah Fifita to throw the ball.
He's a solid quarterback, but the Wildcats are struggling through the air, ranking 75th nationally in Pass Success Rate.
But the 'Cats sacrifice efficiency for volume. They pass at the 18th highest rate nationally, ranking 41st in Pass Explosiveness and 52nd in Pass PPA.
Fifita has thrown over 30 times in every FBS game this year, including 42- and 49-attempt efforts in two losses when Arizona was playing from behind.
His passing yards prop seems low this week, likely because BYU has an excellent pass defense. The Cougars rank seventh nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, eighth in Pass PPA allowed and 16th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
But that's a strength-of-schedule factor. The Cougars have played SMU, Wyoming, Kansas State and Baylor — all four rank 77th or worse nationally in Pass Success Rate. None of them care to throw the ball.
BYU ranks 56th in PFF's Coverage grades and 61st in PFF's Pass Rush grades, which is more indicative of the Cougars' true talent level. This is a good secondary, but not a top-10 one.
We're getting a good price to back Fifita in the passing prop market.
Pick: Noah Fifita Over 249.5 Pass Yards (Play To 256.5)
Ole Miss vs. LSU Player Prop
Tre Harris Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Alex Hinton
Tre Harris leads the FBS with 885 receiving yards.
He started the year with four consecutive 100-yard games. However, that streak ended last week (81 yards against South Carolina), but he was just a first down shy of hitting over 91 receiving yards in six consecutive games.
Harris should start a new streak this week against LSU. In last year's matchup, Harris caught eight balls for 153 yards and a score. LSU's defense has improved in some areas. However, the secondary is still highly vulnerable. The Tigers rank 93rd nationally in pass defense, allowing 236.4 aerial yards per game while ranking 121st in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Last year’s game was a 55-49 thrilling Ole Miss victory. With another close spread (Ole Miss -3.5) and high total (62.5), this year’s game may be another shootout. That would also mean Jaxon Dart will target his WR1 early and often.
Harris had a 56-yard reception in last year’s game. This season, he's averaging 17 yards per reception, with nine receptions of 35 yards or more. If he has a few explosive plays in this game, he will likely go over 100 yards again.
Pick: Tre Harris Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Syracuse vs. NC State Player Prop
LeQuint Allen 80+ Rush Yards (+110)
The Syracuse Orange (4-1, 1-1) will face the North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-3, 0-2) at 8 p.m. at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina.
The Orange will look to continue its hot season and should not have a hard time hitting paydirt against a struggling North Carolina State defense.
Entering this game, North Carolina State has the worst scoring defense in the ACC, allowing opposing offenses to score 33.7 points per game. While my initial inclination was to research the passing prop market, I stumbled upon what I thought was excellent value in this rushing prop.
The edge for this bet is the combination of LeQuint Allen's talent and the Wolfpack's weakness in the trenches.
The North Carolina State rush defense ranks 88th nationally, allowing 158.7 yards per game.
Coming into this game, Allen is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 71.6 yards per game. These statistics are dragged down by a game against Stanford, where the Orange fell behind early. If you remove that game from his statistics, Allen is averaging 83.3 yards per game, which should be our target for his productivity in this game.
In three of six games this year, North Carolina State has allowed an opposing back to rush for more than 100 yards. Allen has been and will see the lion's share of the work out of the backfield and shouldn’t have an issue eclipsing the 80-yard mark.
Lastly, North Carolina State has been susceptible to getting chewed up on the ground. It ranks 118th in the nation in Opponent Long Rushing Plays, giving up 36 rushing plays of 10+ yards.
Pick: LeQuint Allen 80+ Rush Yards (+110 · Play to -110)
