The College Football Playoff is upon us, but Indiana vs. Notre Dame isn’t the only show in town on Friday.
I’m dipping into the Gasparilla Bowl with a ladder strategy before the mercury drops by nearly 50 degrees as I switch venues from Tampa to South Bend.
From there, we have a quarterback duel on the menu that may be more pop-gun than six-shooter.
Let's dive into my college football player props for Friday, Dec. 20, including picks for Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard and Florida wide receiver Elijhah Badger.
College Football Player Props
- Elijhah Badger Receiving Yards Ladders (Florida vs. Tulane)
- Riley Leonard to Have More Passing Yards Than Kurtis Rourke (Notre Dame vs. Indiana)
Elijhah Badger Receiving Yards Ladder
- Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (1 Unit)
- Over 99.5 Receiving Yards (+230 · 0.5 Unit)
- Over 124.5 Receiving Yards (+450 · 0.25 Unit)
For starters, Badger has confirmed that he’ll play in this game, which is a relief in the transfer portal era. But it’s not just Badger’s availability that has me bullish on this prop bet.
A combination of injuries and coaching indecision delayed the hard launch of DJ Lagway as Florida’s quarterback of the future. In the end, Lagway started six games and played in five others. But let’s focus on his starts and how his presence as the Gators’ QB1 impacted Badger.
In his first career start against Samford, Lagway connected with Badger three times for 123 yards. In his second start against Kentucky, Lagway was a big-play machine, connecting on five passes of 40-plus yards. Three of those deep shots went Badger’s way, as the senior finished with three catches for 148 yards.
After bouncing back from an injury, Lagway found Badger repeatedly against LSU in a convincing 27-16 win at The Swamp. Badger finished that game against the Bayou Bengals with a line of 6/131/1.
When these two are healthy and on the field at the same time, big things happen, full stop.
This prop really boils down to Tulane’s secondary and its ability — or lack thereof — to stop the deep ball. Tulane was actually a respectable 34th in terms of limiting aerial explosives this past season.
But when you drill down into Tulane’s box scores, you’ll find that the Green Wave created a “No Fly Zone” against teams that couldn’t pass like Southeastern Louisiana, Temple, Navy and Army.
In those four games, they gave up a grand total of 185 yards through the air on 56 attempts (3.3 YPA). But when the Green Wave drew competent quarterback competition, they looked far less fearsome.
Memphis’ Seth Henigan was fully in charge during a 34-24 upset of Tulane down in the Big Easy, posting a QBR of 79.1 and connecting with his top receiver, Roc Taylor, seven times for 96 yards.
North Texas’ Chandler Morris shredded Tulane’s secondary to the tune of 449 yards and three touchdowns. He had not one, but two receivers finish above 100 yards receiving.
Even UAB’s top receiver, Amare Thomas, flirted with 100 yards receiving against TU earlier this season.
This is all to say, for teams that are willing to bomb away, there are big plays out there against this Tulane secondary, which is potentially down Caleb Ransaw if he decides to focus on NFL Draft prep and the Reese’s Senior Bowl.
We do know that defensive end Matthew Fobbs-White has hit the transfer portal, and his 91.3 PFF Pass Rush grade will be sorely missed in this game.
His full body of work indicates that Badger can surpass his receiving prop in two receptions and that his upside resides in the 150-plus receiving yard neighborhood. He’s tailor-made for a ladder strategy.
Riley Leonard to Have More Passing Yards Than Kurtis Rourke (+112)
The player prop market for the four College Football Playoff games this week is chock-full of one-off markets. By my rough estimate, FanDuel is offering twice as many player props as usual.
I came into this game hoping to fade Kurtis Rourke’s passing total, but instead of laying -114 on his total that's sitting at 198.5, I can instead opt for this head-to-head market and take Leonard to rack up more through the air at +112.
So, why the Rourke hate? After all, he just finished ninth in the Heisman race, squeezing out two first-place votes. That made him the first Hoosier to crack the Heisman top 10 after Tevin Coleman did so a decade ago.
Simply put, Rourke was the beneficiary of a Charmin-soft schedule this season.
He threw for over 300 yards on four occasions. Those four breakout performances came against pass defenses with an average ranking of 105th in Maryland, Northwestern, Purdue and UCLA.
Against pass defenses with a pulse, like Nebraska (52nd) and Michigan State (47th), Rourke was efficient but far less explosive. His yards per attempt against the Cornhuskers and Spartans came in at 9.04, compared to 10.8 against the aforementioned lackluster secondaries.
His aDOT similarly came down when facing Nebraska and Michigan State by nearly the same differential. This is all to say that the “free yardage” buffet that helped him pad his stats this season doesn’t apply to every defense he faced.
When he took a massive jump up in competition, Ohio State and its second-ranked pass defense suffocated Rourke and IU. Rourke finished 8-for-18 for just 68 yards through the air.
Notre Dame features the third-rated pass defense in the country. Its secondary has one of the highest PFF coverage grades, and its pass rush has cracked the top 20 while racking up 30 sacks this season.
Rourke has also dealt with injuries both at IU (thumb) and during his time at Ohio (ACL). So, a disruptive defensive line like Notre Dame’s puts the possibility of an early exit on the table for Rourke.
Now, for the Riley Leonard side of the equation.
Indiana has a strong pass defense utilizing an impressive pass rush (6th) and an experienced secondary to squeeze teams through the air.
But much like Rourke’s passing numbers against lowly competition, the IU defense clamped a handful of laughably bad offenses. Charlotte, Michigan, Purdue and Western Illinois comprised a quarter of the Hoosiers' schedule this season.
The Boilermakers and Wolverines finished 112th and 130th in passing, respectively. Western Illinois, which finished 4-8 at the FCS level, threw up the white flag during a 77-3 beatdown. And Charlotte gave backup Trexler Ivey his only start of 2024. He finished with 119 yards passing against IU.
Additionally, Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines will need to commit more defenders to stop Notre Dame’s running game.
Yes, the Hoosiers finished with the nation’s top-rated run defense, but a big reason for that was they faced many aerially-challenged teams.
If the Irish struggle to run, Leonard will see north of 25 attempts in this game, which favors my action here. And should ND find early success on the ground, Indiana will need to walk more defenders into the box. In those seven and eight-man box scenarios, IU will be susceptible to the big play off of play-action.
As for Leonard’s modest passing average (174.3 yards per game), I would say those figures are reflective of Notre Dame’s dominance over the past three months.
Leonard was either pulled or simply asked to hand the ball off repeatedly in eight wins of 17-plus points this season. I don’t believe the Irish will blow out the Hoosiers, and four quarters of Leonard utilizing Mike Denbrock’s full playbook should give him every opportunity to surpass 200 yards passing in this game.
Weather conditions earlier in the day will be dicey, with snow and wind on the menu. But by kickoff, winds will have tapered down into the 5-10 MPH range, and snow showers will have long since moved out of the area.
At plus-money of any kind, I’m ready to back Leonard over Rourke in this market.
