We’re quarterback-heavy this week in the college prop picks department.
Two dual threats are set to go off on Saturday night, while a surprisingly competent Colorado defense is set to put on a coverage clinic in Northwest Texas.
Here are our three favorite college football player props for college football Week 11 on Saturday, Nov. 9.
CFB Player Prop Picks for Week 11
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of Week 11 games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 4 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Colorado vs. Texas Tech Player Props
Behren Morton Under 252.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Last season, any over against the Colorado defense was more or less a free square. The Buffs ranked 130th nationally in total defense while allowing a hair under five touchdowns per game.
But that was last year, and a talent infusion and coaching shakeup on the defensive side of the ball has made all the difference.
Robert Livingston appeared to be an NFL lifer in the making, having spent the past 12 seasons as a scout and assistant in Cincinnati. But Deion Sanders convinced him to change course and head to Boulder. That decision is working out for both of them.
Livingston has whipped this pass defense into shape. The Buffaloes rank 27th nationally in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades and have ratcheted up the pressure — The Buffs have cracked the top 35 in Havoc (34th), sacks (23rd), and pass breakups (7th).
While the CU defense is trending upward, Behren Morton is headed in the opposite direction.
After throwing for 701 yards in his first two games, he’s been slipping ever since. In his past four starts, Morton’s QBR has regressed considerably (43.3). He’s fallen to eighth in the Big 12 in aDot (8.8), and he’s been knocked out of a game recently when he suffered a shoulder injury (non-throwing).
Against an aggressive CU pass defense and rush that is getting home, I think it’s likely that he struggles or is knocked out of this game altogether.
Another game-planning element to consider here: Colorado still struggles to stop the run.
The Buffaloes allow 155.4 rush yards per game (79th). And Texas Tech has a bell-cow back capable of 25-plus carries in Tahj Brooks. He’s toted the rock at least 25 times in 66% of Tech’s games this season.
And in Morton’s four starts where he’s attempted 29 or fewer passes, he’s fallen short of this total on three occasions. The game-script favors an under here as well.
I would play this down to 248.5.
Pick: Behren Morton Under 252.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Alabama vs. LSU Player Prop
Jalen Milroe Rushing Yards Ladder
Last season, Milroe victimized the LSU defense with his legs.
He tore off big run after big run, breaking the pocket and LSU backers’ hearts. He finished with 155 yards on the ground and four scores, outdoing the future Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.
Have the Bayou Bengals shored up their run defense since then?
Against running backs, yes. Against dual-threat quarterbacks, no.
LSU’s run defense allows explosive runs at the fifth-worst rate in college football. Athletic signal callers like South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (88 yards, 2 TDs) and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed (62 yards, 3 TDs) gave them real problems. Milroe has hit 50 or more on the ground in half of his games this season and exploded for 117 against Georgia.
Now, with any quarterback rushing over, you must always be mindful of sack yardage working against you. The game within the game between the Alabama offensive line and LSU pass rush seems to favor the Tigers at first blush.
Pro Football Focus rates Alabama’s passing block 44th while the LSU pass rush checks in at eighth nationally — his upside extends into triple digits on the ground.
The loss of Harold Perkins hasn’t slowed down LSU, but the Tigers have inflated their sack numbers by harassing traditional pocket passers. Against UCLA’s Ethan Garbers and A&M’s Connor Weigman, they racked up one-third of their sacks for the entire season.
Milroe is a different animal, and while I don’t foresee a clean sheet for the Alabama offensive line from a sack perspective, I would be shocked to see him take more than 15 negative yards from sacks.
Picks:
- Jalen Milroe Over 50 Rush Yards (-112), 1 unit
- Jalen Milroe Over 70 Rush Yards (+194), .5 unit
- Jalen Milroe Over 100 Rush Yards (+490), .25 unit
Utah State vs. Washington State Player Prop
John Mateer Over 252.5 Pass Yards (-115)
Mateer has been an absolute monster this season when slinging it around on the Palouse.
At Martin Stadium, he’s averaged 288 yards per game through the air with a QBR of 85.
And keep in mind, he was pulled early in the third quarter against Portland State and took to the bench with ten minutes remaining in a blowout win over Hawaii. Had he played those games fully, with the entire playbook at his disposal, it’s reasonable to assume his average would have exceeded 325 yards per game through the air.
Now he draws a laughably bad Aggies defense.
On Standard Downs, Utah State ranks 132nd nationally against the pass. That distinction is vital because the Aggies fail to generate enough Havoc (122nd) to push teams behind the sticks and into passing situations.
With the threat of run, teams are picking the Aggies apart.
In terms of comps for Mateer, Utah State has drawn two elite dual-threat quarterbacks so far this season in New Mexico’s Devon Dampier and UNLV’s Hajj-Malik Williams.
The Lobos and Rebels both scored 50 points on this Aggie defense. Dampier finished with 272 through the air and 105 on the ground with four total touchdowns. Williams only threw for 233 yards, but that was because his running game went nuclear (313 yards, 6.7 YPC).
Unlike Dampier and Williams, Mateer can’t just turn around and hand the ball off 40-plus times. Wazzu ranks 115th in run blocking, and their lead back, Wayshawn Parker, has exceeded 12 carries just once all season long.
This is the Mateer Show, both through the air and on the ground (575 yards, 10 rushing touchdowns).
For that reason, I’m also deploying a ladder strategy on Mateer’s rushing yards. I’ll be playing him over 65 yards for one unit, 75 yards for a half unit, and 90 yards for a quarter unit.
Mateer is universally viewed as the top college fantasy quarterback this week, so stacking tickets on his overs from passing and rushing to touchdowns and alternate props is the best way to go about it.
Pick: John Mateer Over 252.5 Pass Yards (-115)
