Week 14 College Football Player Prop Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
As Conference Championship Saturday arrives, I’m reminded of a sobering fact:
College Football is almost over.
So, let's make the most of this weekend by betting sides, totals, and college football player props.
If you’re lost on the latter, here are our favorite four college football player props and picks for Conference Championship Saturday on Dec. 2, involving picks for Alan Bowman, Xavier Worthy, Jacquez Stuart and Ricky White.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Alan Bowman
Over 275 Pass Yards (+178)
By Cody Goggin
Texas heads into the Big 12 Championship Game as a 14.5-point favorite against Oklahoma State.
After a rough start, the Cowboys rebounded admirably this season and are now playing the Longhorns for the first time this year.
Oklahoma State’s passing volume has ticked upward since Alan Bowman was named the starter. He's recorded 34 or more passing attempts in all nine of his starts this year.
With the Cowboys likely playing from behind, we should see a heavy dose of Bowman from Mike Gundy and Co.
Lucky for them, Texas’ coverage unit is its biggest weakness. The Longhorns rank 65th nationally in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades and 85th in total passing defense (240.1 pass yards allowed per game).
The pass defense has been solid on a play-by-play efficiency basis. Still, Texas has faced the 12th-most pass attempts per game this year, likely due to the Longhorns generating early leads and forcing opponents to go pass-heavy in a deficit.
Bowman has exceeded this alternate total of 275 passing yards in six of his nine full games this season. Conversely, Texas has allowed five of its past seven opposing quarterbacks to rack up over 275 aerial yards.
I think Texas wins and covers, but Bowman should amass plenty of passing yards trying to keep his Pokes in the game.
I love the alternate line of over 275 yards at heavy plus money, especially considering the likely game script.
Pick: Alan Bowman Over 275 Pass Yards (+178)
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Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Xavier Worthy
Over 74.5 Receiving Yards
By Greg Liodice
Xavier Worthy is among Texas’ biggest playmakers.
The junior wide receiver leads the team in yards and targets and has formed solid chemistry with quarterback Quinn Ewers. There have been a few games where Worthy was limited to less than 50 yards, but those are so few and far between.
He has the potential to go off in any game, and those games usually happen when there’s a lot at stake. He’s had his best games against higher-end opponents like TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas and Alabama.
With the Big 12 championship looming, a big game from Worthy is more than viable.
The Cowboys are a fairly middle-of-the-road program at stopping the pass. They’re ranked 38th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, but they're also among the worst at preventing Explosive passing plays.
Redshirt freshman defensive back Cameron Epps has done a solid job creating Havoc, nabbing three interceptions. However, he has yet to face a quarterback as dominant as Ewers, who can perfectly place the ball anywhere he wants, completing just under 70% of his passes for over 2,700 yards.
With the separation Worthy can create and Oklahoma State's penchant for allowing big passing plays, there's a high chance Worthy racks up over 75 yards on Saturday.
Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 80.5)
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Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
Jacquez Stuart
Over 36.5 Rush Yards
By Doug Ziefel
Peny Boone may get all the glamour as the Toledo Rockets lead back, but he's not the running back to target in the MAC Championship game.
The Rockets are an elite rushing team, ranking fifth nationally in yards per carry. But their ground game will face a tough test against a RedHawks' defense that ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed.
Looking at the top two backs for the Rockets, Boone has been very efficient, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. But his line is set at 112.5, meaning he'd have to maintain that average for all his projected 15 carries in a brutal matchup.
Instead, let's look at Jacquez Stuart, who averages eight carries per game and 4.7 yards per carry. At that rate, he'd amass 38 yards.
However, when these two met in October, Stuart got 12 carries and managed 60 yards, as the Rockets went with a rush-first attack. That was in a favorable game script, as the Rockets led most of the game.
The RedHawks' offense won't be as potent this time, given starting quarterback Brett Gabbert is hurt. So, Toledo might generate an even wider lead in this one, only increasing its rushing volume and benefitting Stuart's backup workload.
Stuart's proven he can surpass this total, as he's eclipsed 36 rush yards in eight of ten games he's played this year.
Pick: Jacquez Stuart Over 36.5 Rush Yards (Play to 40.5)
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Boise State vs. UNLV
Ricky White
Over 149.5 Rec Yards (+390)
Ricky White should have been a Biletnikoff finalist with the season he put together.
Despite the growing pains of working with a backup quarterback, White finished the season with 1,300 receiving yards. He averaged over 17 yards per catch and ended the regular season on a heater.
White had over 110 receiving yards in each of the last five games while adding five scores. If you zoom out, he exceeded 150 receiving yards in five of his final 10 games.
He should feast against Boise State's secondary. The Broncos rank 104th nationally in Pro Football Focus's Coverage grades, and 112th in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
UNLV-Boise State has the highest total of the eight title games on Saturday, so there's a good chance this turns into a shootout on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium.
Finally, I mentioned UNLV’s quarterback situation at the top, but I think it’s time to take the “backup” label off of Jayden Maiava.
Since mid-October, he’s posted four games with a QBR north of 83. He can run this GoGo offense at a very high level and is morphing into a strength for the Runnin’ Rebels.
Pick: Ricky White Over 149.5 Rec Yards (+390)
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