Welcome to college football Week 6.
And welcome to another week of college football player props action.
Our staff is offering three more prop picks on this Saturday, Oct. 5, including plays for Louisville's Tyler Shough, Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia, and Michigan's Alex Orji.
College Football Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our college football staff's top player prop picks from Saturday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 12 p.m. | |
| 4:15 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
SMU vs. Louisville Player Prop
Tyler Shough Over 275 Passing Yards
By Cody Goggin
Tyler Shough has been a great addition to Louisville's offense, which ranks 17th nationally in Pass Success Rate and sixth in overall Success Rate.
The Cardinals have thrown the ball 53% of the time this year despite playing from ahead in most games. Shough still dropped 230 yards on 24 attempts against Austin Peay and 270 yards on 19 against Georgia Tech.
In the Cardinals' other two games, Shough ripped off 350 yards on 33 attempts against Jacksonville State and 260 yards on 41 attempts against an elite Notre Dame defense.
I expect more passing volume from the Louisville offense this Saturday when it plays SMU.
SMU's pass-defensive metrics look solid, but the Mustangs haven't played many elite aerial attacks. The one above-average passing attack that SMU faced this year was TCU, and the Frogs amassed 384 yards on a 97th-percentile EPA per Dropback performance en route to a 42-point performance.
Ultimately, I expect Shough will be forced into more passing situations than typical, and I trust Jeff Brohm's passing attack to keep moving the ball efficiently.
Pick: Tyler Shough Over 275 Passing Yards (+110) | Play to (-105)
Alabama vs. Vanderbilt Player Prop
Diego Pavia 80+ Rushing Yards (+550)
While the final score wasn't close, Alabama struggled against South Florida dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, who rushed for 108 yards on 22 attempts against the Tide's front seven.
This Saturday, Alabama will face dual-threat, jack-of-all-trades quarterback Diego Pavia just seven days after an emotional rivalry victory over Georgia.
And similar to what South Florida did, Vanderbilt should try to muck up the game.
Pavia is the man for the job and will be one of the biggest wildcards of the season for the Alabama defense.
After transferring from New Mexico State, the energetic Pavia runs a non-traditional option offense.
The proof is in the stat line, with Pavia averaging 69.8 yards per game on the ground and 180.3 yards in the air. If Vanderbilt wants to have any chance to keep the game close, they will have to rely on Pavia to move the ball on the ground, keep the Tide defense off balance, and shorten the game.
Vanderbilt has a track record of exceeding expectations this year, beating Virginia Tech as two touchdown dogs and taking Missouri to overtime. Pavia kept both games close with his legs, rushing for 104 and 84 yards, respectively.
Alabama will not be surprised to see Pavia rely on rushing the ball, but that doesn’t mean he will be any easier to defend. The combination of excellent coaching and a Pavia-led option-style offense should still generate yards. Alabama has shown susceptibility to a running quarterback once this season, and I think that could happen again on Saturday in Nashville.
I recommend backing the elusive Pavia to rush for 80+ yards and would be this at +450 or longer.
Pick: Diego Pavia 80+ Rushing Yards (+550) | Play to (+450)
Michigan vs. Washington Player Prop
Alex Orji Under 92.5 Passing Yards
Everyone knows Alex Orji cannot throw the ball, so teams are stacking the box against Michigan.
Orji can only make throws to his first read when everything is on schedule. In any other situation, he can't hit any open receiver.
He’s only attempted 36 passes this season, is averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt, and has only completed two passes over 10 air yards. Michigan has had the benefit of playing with a lead for most of the past three games, so Orji hasn’t been under pressure to throw the ball at a high rate.
Washington leads the nation in Pass Success Rate allowed. Even if Michigan falls behind and Orji is forced to throw, the Junior quarterback has too tough a test ahead of him.
Unless Michigan breaks off a huge screen play, I don't see Orji exceeding his passing yard total — especially on the road.
Pick: Alex Orji Under 92.5 Passing Yards (-115) | Play to Under 87.5 (-110)
