Between pro and college games on Saturday, football bettors are in heaven.
Do you know what would make this celestial Saturday even better?
Some winners.
Here are my three favorite college football player props for Saturday, Dec. 21, including picks for Brashard Smith, Quinn Ewers and Dylan Sampson.
Prop Bet #1: Brashard Smith Touchdown & Yardage Parlay
Odds: +135, FanDuel
- Over 109 Scrimmage Yards (-114)
- Anytime Touchdown (-150)
In recent years, Brashard Smith was a lightly used weapon in Miami’s “running back by committee” approach.
He offered a clear upside to the 'Canes as a receiving option out of the backfield, but he wisely chose to leave Miami for SMU last cycle.
That decision paid off handsomely for Smith and the Mustangs.
Smith has been the offensive engine for SMU down the stretch, averaging over 24 touches per game since October 26th. Whether Kevin Jennings is handing him the ball or throwing it to him, good things happen when Smith gets his hands on the pigskin. He’s taken those 24 touches per game in the past two months and generated 133 yards from scrimmage per game with ten total touchdowns.
Penn State faced three running backs that are reasonable comparisons for Smith: Minnesota’s Darius Taylor, Oregon’s Jordan James, and USC’s Woody Marks.
That trio averaged 109 yards from scrimmage against the Nittany Lions, exactly the number books landed when handicapping this market.
I’ve found success this season in blending my projections with those of Joe DiSalvo and his model. I’m projecting Smith to hit 26 touches (21 carries, five receptions) for 119 yards and a score. DiSalvo’s projections are similar to Smith's, with Smith reaching 112 total yards and a touchdown.
As long as this number doesn’t cross over 110.5 yards for his rushing & receiving prop, I still like this parlay as packaged.
One final note: SMU has leaned on certain run concepts this season to free up Smith, including traps and outside zone rushing attempts. Penn State, which sports a top-ten run defense, has posted average defensive figures against these two concepts.
We’ll see if Rhett Lashlee can win the chess match against Tom Allen and scheme up some space for his Swiss Army Knife on Saturday afternoon in Happy Valley.
Prop Bet #2: Quinn Ewers & The Texas Fade Parlay
Odds: +197, FanDuel
- Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+152)
Ewers’ passing explosion in the SEC Title Game against Georgia has inflated this market by about 20 yards.
I’m happy to take advantage of that by playing the under on his passing yards and touchdowns.
During the regular season, Ewers was up and down due to injuries (oblique, ankle) and a sneaking suspicion that the Texas fans and coaching staff wanted to switch horses midstream.
In October and November, Ewers drew four ranked opponents. In those ranked matchups, he averaged 229 yards through the air with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 7-to-5.
Now he has a high ankle sprain to compete with, an injury that has the potential to flare up and knock him out at any time.
It doesn’t help that Kelvin Banks Jr., the left tackle, is dealing with his ankle injury. If Banks Jr. is out or guts it out with limited lateral quickness, Ewers will be under fire in this game.
Even before the injury, Ewers wasn’t the most outstanding passer when facing pressure. In SEC regular season play, Ewers faced double-digit pressures against Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Ewers completed 60% of his passes for just 690 yards (230 per game).
Clemson also flies down to the 40 Acres with a game plan that will dare Texas to stick to the run.
The Tigers rank 23rd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed. They’ve blended a ranking of 36th in coverage with a top-50 grade in pass rush to squeeze opposing passers.
If they smell blood in the water with a wounded left tackle and/or pocket passer, they will dial up the pressure early and often.
What they can’t scheme up is an answer to the run. Clemson has been below average all season long against the run. The Tigers sit outside the top 65 in Rushing Success Rate allowed, Defensive Line Yards, and Stuff Rate.
Sark has trusted Quintrevion Wisner more and more down the stretch, putting the ball in the sophomore’s hands regularly (26 touches per game in his last four games).
Sprinkle in the likelihood we see Arch Manning in short-yardage and goal-to-go scenarios, and it becomes increasingly difficult to see Ewers throwing two touchdown passes after failing short of that mark against Georgia and Texas A&M in recent games.
Prop Bet #3: Dylan Sampson & The Tennessee Bell Cow Parlay
Odds: +607, FanDuel
- Over 124.5 Rushing Yards (+210)
- First-Half Anytime Touchdown (+150)
- 2+ TDs (+350)
This is Sampson’s game to win.
Ohio State’s “No Fly Zone” pass defense is just fantastic.
For all of the heat that Ryan Day has rightfully received in the past month, it’s not his defense’s fault. The Buckeyes are third in Success Rate against the pass, with teams cobbling together just 144.3 yards per game through the air. Opponents have thrown nine interceptions to just four passing touchdowns. No one gets loose in this secondary. Ohio State has given up just six pass plays of 30-plus yards all season, tied for the lead nationally,.
So how can Tennessee hang here?
By feeding Dylan Sampson early and often.
Sampson was a workhorse with a nose for the end zone all year. He led the SEC in rushing yards (1,485), rushing touchdowns (22) and PFF's Rushing grades. His contact balance, tempo between the tackles, and elite vision explain how he nearly ran for 1,000 yards … after contact.
When Tennessee is facing a big test, like playing the underdog role against a ranked opponent, they turn to Sampson.
Against the Crimson Tide, he carried it 26 times for 139 yards and a pair of rushing scores. The Volunteers won, 24-17.
Against Georgia, he received 22 touches, converting those opportunities into 117 yards and a score.
Can they do the same against the Ohio State front? The metrics and recent history would say yes.
Surprisingly, the Buckeyes rank 95th nationally in Stuff Rate and 50th in Line Yards. You can move those Silver Bullets in the box.
In Ryan Day’s two losses this season, Oregon and Michigan committed to punching Ohio State square in the mouth. The Ducks rushed for five yards per carry against Ohio State, and feature back Jordan James finished with a line of 23/115/1.
In an absolute street brawl with “The Team Up North,” the Wolverines ran for 172 yards, controlled the clock and got their bell cow into the end zone, as Kalel Mullings ran 32 times for 116 yards and a score.
I’ve seen this strategy deployed before and seen it work. At 6-to-1 odds I’m willing to buy into it working for the third time this season.
