If we perform as well as we did in last week's player prop market, Saturday's Week 10 will be a breeze.
Four of our five plays in the Michigan vs. Michigan State contest cashed, while all three of our bets on the national front won.
Let's scan the board for this weekend and dig up some more value. You can find these plays at PrizePicks, which is available in 30 states.
Liberty QB Malik Willis: Over/Under 64.5 Rushing Yards
This is the first bet on Willis all year, and let me tell you: I am giddy.
Not only does he pace all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season (684), he's arguably the most dangerous runner at any position.
Top Rusher EPA (Expected Points Added) in 2021
per Football Outsiders
| Player | Team | Total Rusher EPA |
|---|---|---|
| QB Malik Willis | Liberty | 58.64 |
| QB Matt Corral | Ole Miss | 53.45 |
| RB Zach Evans | TCU | 37.23 |
| RB Zach Charbonnet | UCLA | 35.56 |
| RB Abram Smith | Baylor | 33.69 |
| RB Tyler Allgeier | BYU | 32.66 |
| RB Kenneth Walker III | Michigan State | 32.42 |
| RB Chase Brown | Illinois | 29.01 |
| RB Jerome Ford | Cincinnati | 28.86 |
| RB Dylan McDuffie | Buffalo | 27.33 |
Willis will have his fingerprints all over this game, which has all the makings of a track meet.
The dual-threat quarterback averages an even 14 rushing attempts this season. However, when looking back at Liberty's three "biggest" games this year — all on the road against Troy, UAB and Syracuse — Willis put up north of 17.3, averaging 95.3 yards on the ground per contest.
We recommended the over on Auburn QB Bo Nix's rushing total last week against the Rebels, which came through. I have no problem fading Ole Miss yet again. The rush defense is 99th in rushing yards allowed per game, 78th in yards per carry and 72nd in tackling.
Pick: Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker Over/Under 222.5 Passing Yards
Tennessee is very much a run-first offense, but Josh Heupel isn't going to jam the ball into the teeth of a Kentucky defense that's allowing just 3.3 yards per carry.
The Wildcats' secondary, on the other hand, is 124th nationally in Pass Success rate allowed and 125th in opponent completion percentage.
It's a unit that'll bend, offering Hooker plenty of opportunities to pick up chunks in the passing game.
Hooker's volume has slowly ticked up since taking over for Joe Milton. After bottoming out at 19 attempts a few weeks ago against Missouri, Hooker has 23, 26 and 28 over his last three games.
This is a soft number on a quarterback who has cashed this number in four straight and only getting more comfortable.
Pick: Over 222.5 Passing Yards
Coastal Carolina WR Jaivon Heiligh Over/Under 87.5 Receiving Yards
Heiligh has been ridiculously good in 2021, to the extent he's leading receivers on the national front.
His 4.19 RYPTPA (Reception Yards per Team Pass Attempt) paces the entire country, ahead of names like Arkansas' Treylon Burks and USC's Drake London.
Heiligh averages 88 yards per game — right around Saturday's posted prop total — but the matchup against Georgia Southern's a recipe for a breakout.
The senior draws an Eagles secondary ranking 116th in yards per completion (14.6) and 83rd in completion percentage (63.2%).
He has shattered this number in six of eight games this season, so let's capitalize on another deflated total.
Pick: Over 87.5 Receiving Yards
