Welcome to Day 2 of the College Football Playoff quarterfinals.
After we saw No. 6 Penn State take down No. 3 Boise State, 31-14, last night, we have 3 more games on deck today.
The action starts at noon ET when the No. 5 Texas Longhorns face the No. 4 Arizona State Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl. Then, we turn our attention to the Sugar Bowl, where the No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs.
Our staff broke down both games and came through with a pick for each, so let's stop wasting time and get to the action.
Read on for our College Football Playoff best bets and expert NCAAF picks for the three-game CFP slate on Wednesday, Jan. 1.
College Football Playoff Best Bets & Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Wednesday's slate of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 8:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas vs. Arizona State Best Bet
Betting patterns show Arizona State is generating smart money ahead of Wednesday's quarterfinal vs. Texas.
PRO Systems help to identify situational betting spots, and that includes a stash of betting models tailored to bowl season.
Public betting tickets we log also help to guide where the majority of bets are landing, versus the money.
One of our bowl-only PRO Systems that's cashing at a 70% clip alerted ASU against the spread as a sharp play on Wednesday.
When the line moves in favor of unpopular bowl sides, they cover at an excellent rate.
Kenny Dillingham’s ASU Sun Devils are bringing in just one-third of the bet slips, but the line’s dropping. That means something.
Pick: Arizona State +12.5 (Play to +11.5)
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Notre Dame vs. Georgia Pick
By Joshua Nunn
Georgia is going to be the most physical front seven that Notre Dame has faced all season, and I would expect this game to look a lot different than the first playoff game ND played at home against Indiana.
The Dawgs' defensive front has registered 36 sacks on the season and 86 tackles for loss for a defense that ranks No. 1 nationally in Explosiveness allowed.
I can see this being a complete grind for Notre Dame that's free of big plays, which we saw against Indiana 10 days ago.
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton looked really solid in the second half against Texas, and with a couple of weeks to prepare for this one, he should be comfortable in the pocket against a banged-up defensive line for the Irish that will be without Rylie Mills.
I would expect Georgia to run the ball effectively here and convert third dowsn at a high percentage against a defense that ranks just 102nd in Havoc.
Notre Dame has feasted on weaker foes this season and is at its best when it controls the physicality and line of scrimmage. That should not be what we see in this matchup against Georgia.
For all the success that Notre Dame has had this season, it's been very average in early downs, and the pass game ranks just 98th nationally in Passing Success Rate.
I would expect the Bulldogs defense to make Riley Leonard uncomfortable in the pocket. When the plays break down and quick decisions need to be made, I trust the Georgia defense.
It's easy to look at the lackluster performances of Georgia late in the season, along with the quarterback injury, and form a negative opinion, but the talent on this team is elite.
Notre Dame has been in favorable situations all season while lining up against inferior opponents, but the script will be flipped in this situation.
With three weeks to prepare, Georgia is not the challenge I would want to face with all that's at stake. I expect the defense to control this game for UGA. Lay it with the Dawgs.
Pick: Georgia ML -115 (Play to -122)
