We're back for the fourth edition of what will continue to be a regular column all the way until the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is officially unveiled on Sunday, Dec. 8.
We are in uncharted territory, with 2024 marking the first year of an expanded postseason that will triple the number of schools that will have an opportunity to compete for a National Championship.
As with every edition, I've sorted teams into different tiers based on their likelihood of qualifying for the playoff.
I'll also discuss their “To Make the Playoff” odds and evaluate whether or not I see value on any teams based on those numbers. All odds are via DraftKings as of Tuesday morning.
Additionally, as I've done in the past, I'll slowly eliminate teams that no longer have any pathway to the playoff. We started the year with 133 hopefuls (Kennesaw State is ineligible for the postseason as it transitions to FBS), but that number will decrease all the way down to the mid-teens before selection day.
A quick reminder on the new format — the four highest-ranked conference champions receive an auto-bid, top-four seed and bye into the quarterfinal round. The fifth highest-ranked conference champ, presumably the top Group of Five team, receives an auto-bid into the first round.
The remaining seven entrants will be at-large bids based on the final committee rankings on Dec. 8.
Without further ado, let’s dive into some College Football Playoff futures and picks in this edition of Playoff Palooza.
College Football Playoff Futures & Picks
- Tennessee to Make CFP (-150)
- Indiana to Make CFP (+120)
- Alabama to Not Make CFP
- LSU to Not Make CFP
Tier 1: In the CFP Driver’s Seat (8 Teams)
There's been some shake-up within the teams in this top tier, but as of Week 9, I've still got eight teams holding it down in the Driver's Seat.
Some are certainly in a more comfortable spot than others, but as remains the case, any team in the “Driver’s Seat” tier throughout the year would qualify for the playoff if the season ended at that moment.
Oregon Ducks (-2500 to Make Playoff)
After the massive win over Ohio State, the Ducks are all but a lock to be in the playoff.
The only real question that remains: Can Dan Lanning and company keep rolling and win the Big Ten and take the No. 1 overall seed in the inaugural 12-team playoff?
Toughest Remaining Games: at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
Penn State Nittany Lions (-750)
The comeback win over USC was massive for PSU's playoff hopes and now gives it some wiggle room if it can't get it done against Ohio State in Columbus.
That said, PSU better be ready to go this week against a Wisconsin team that has been playing a lot better of late.
Everything is still on the table for the Nittany Lions.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, at Washington
Georgia Bulldogs (-1000)
The number is too inflated to do anything, but Georgia cemented its ticket to the postseason in my eyes with the dominant performance in Austin.
Yes, the Bulldogs still have to play Ole Miss and Tennessee, but a split in those two would be enough to get into the bracket. I don't see the Dawgs losing both.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee
Ohio State Buckeyes (-1200)
Ohio State lost to Oregon in the final seconds and now has its work cut out for it the rest of the way.
Winning in State College will be tricky, and the Indiana game is starting to look more and more difficult than anyone would have ever imagined.
The Buckeyes are still a safe bet to make the playoff but not a guarantee.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Indiana, vs. Michigan
Texas Longhorns (-1000)
All of a sudden the Michigan and Oklahoma wins aren't that impressive, and Texas was beaten up in its first matchup against stiff competition.
The good news for Longhorn fans is the schedule is favorable the rest of the way, and the showdown against A&M to end the year could be for a spot in the SEC title game.
A trip to Nashville this week will be a good litmus test of how Texas will respond the rest of the year.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Vanderbilt, at Texas A&M
Miami Hurricanes (-400)
Style points don't necessarily matter all that much for the Hurricanes — as long as they keep winning, the better their playoff chances become.
When the toughest remaining games look like trips to Georgia Tech and Syracuse, you know you got a favorable schedule draw.
I don't think Miami is a top-12 team in the country, but it feels like it will find its way into the bracket.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Florida State, at Georgia Tech, at Syracuse
Tennessee Volunteers (-150)
The Vols won a huge playoff swing game on Saturday, taking out Alabama in come-from-behind fashion in the Third Saturday of October.
Winning in Athens will be very difficult, but if Tennessee can handle business in its other four games, this team will be in the playoff.
With the number only sitting at -150, mark me down for "Yes" on the Vols to make the playoff.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Kentucky, at Georgia, at Vanderbilt
Iowa State Cyclones (+100)
Why is Iowa State in the Driver's Seat but not BYU? I just think the Cyclones are a more complete team and feel better about their chances of running the table in the Big 12.
It's also worth noting that even if ISU were to drop one game in the regular season, it would still be playing in Jerry World for a Big 12 title and top-four seed.
I expect Matt Campbell's team to make the playoff.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Texas Tech, at Utah, vs. Kansas State
Tier 2: On the Cusp of the CFP (8)
This group is reserved for teams that have shown promise and have a pathway in front of them to make their way into the 12-team pack.
They’re far from a lock to make the bracket, but the road is there based on how they perform in swing games later in the season.
To me, this is the most intriguing tier right now, as plenty of these teams will ultimately make the bracket while there's also a contingent that will miss out.
Indiana Hoosiers (+120 to Make Playoff)
What a story the Hoosiers have become. Curt Cignetti's team has been dominating opponents, and last week against Nebraska was no different.
The Kurtis Rourke thumb injury is a little concerning, but it sounds like he will be back sooner rather than later. Tayven Jackson will get the start Saturday against Washington with College GameDay coming to town.
Indiana should be favored in every game aside from the trip to Columbus, so an 11-1 finish and CFP berth is absolutely plausible. Give me the Hoosiers to make the playoff at plus-money.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Washington, at Michigan State, at Ohio State
Alabama Crimson Tide (-105)
Bama couldn't get it done in Knoxville, and now things look dicey with some difficult games remaining on the schedule.
The Crimson Tide likely need to win out to get in, which would include beating LSU in Baton Rouge. I haven't been all that impressed with this team and don't see the Tide running the table.
Give me "No" on Bama at around even money.
Toughest Remaining Games: at LSU, at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn
BYU Cougars (+250)
It may not always be pretty, but you have to give the Cougs credit for continuing to find ways to win.
This Saturday is another scary game with a trip to the Bounce House to take on UCF. It's been a heck of a story, but I ultimately see BYU going down a few times between now and the end of November.
Toughest Remaining Games: at UCF, at Utah
Pitt Panthers (+900)
The one undefeated power conference team that absolutely nobody is talking about.
The odds are still 9-1 for a reason — most of the Panthers' toughest games are still ahead of them. Tip of the cap to Pat Narduzzi for an awesome bounce-back year, but Pitt is a class below the elite in the ACC.
Toughest Remaining Games: at SMU, vs. Clemson, at Louisville
Clemson Tigers (-300)
The best odds of anyone in this tier. Ever since the opening loss to Georgia, Clemson has been absolutely steamrolling teams.
It's worth noting that there are a couple of tricky road games still remaining in the regular season. That said, even if the Tigers were to drop one of those, they'd still likely make the ACC Championship game and be playing for a first-round bye.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pittsburgh, vs. South Carolina
LSU Tigers (-110)
An argument could be made that LSU belongs in the Driver's Seat after another big win over Arkansas. However, I'm still not sold on the Tigers and expect them to go down in College Station on Saturday night.
A loss there would put LSU in a dicey spot, especially with the USC loss looking worse by the day. Give me "No" here.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Oklahoma
Texas A&M Aggies (-110)
Texas A&M is close to even money both ways to make the playoff, which feels about right.
Something tells me that well-documented rivalry reunion matchup against Texas on Thanksgiving weekend will likely decide A&M's fate.
It's worth mentioning, though, that if the Aggies can keep winning before then, they can lose to Texas and still make the SEC title game.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. Texas
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-250)
It's pretty simple for Notre Dame in my opinion. Win the final five, and it'll be in the bracket. Drop one, and it's eliminated.
The NIU loss is too big an eyesore for the Irish to have a chance at 10-2, even with the win at A&M looking better and better.
The good news for the Irish is they will be a favorite in every remaining game; the bad news is the service academies continue to play good football, and USC will relish the spoiler role to end the year.
This is a pass for me for now.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Navy, vs. Army, at USC
Tier 3: College Football Playoff Dark Horses (13)
With still plenty season ahead of us, there are some power conference teams out there that have stumbled but still have plenty of opportunity in front of them to make a run into the heat of the playoff conversation.
Here’s a list of those teams ranked by my confidence level on their respective chances. I tend to place ACC and Big 12 teams higher on this list because they have a more realistic path to an auto-bid.
| Team | CFP Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Kansas State | +130 |
| 2. Ole Miss | +150 |
| 3. SMU | +150 |
| 4. Virginia Tech | +2800 |
| 5. Cincinnati | +1700 |
| 6. Colorado | +1000 |
| 7. Texas Tech | +1600 |
| 8. Missouri | +200 |
| 9. Illinois | +900 |
| 10. Wisconsin | +4000 |
| 11. Syracuse | +3000 |
| 12. Washington State | +750 |
| 13. Duke | +13000 |
Tier 4: Group of Five CFP Hopefuls (10)
A reminder that the highest-ranked Group of Five champ gets an auto-bid to the playoff and a chance to advance to the quarterfinals.
This list will update constantly throughout the year, but here are my current power rankings of the teams most likely to nab that bid. I’ve got 10 G5 teams still alive after eight weeks.
| Team | CFP Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Boise State | +100 |
| 2. Army | +750 |
| 3. Navy | +1500 |
| 4. Liberty | +700 |
| 5. Tulane | +800 |
| 6. Memphis | +800 |
| 7. UNLV | +700 |
| 8. Toledo | +3000 |
| 9. Louisiana | +1500 |
| 10. Georgia Southern | +7500 |
Tier 5: Eliminated From the College Football Playoff (94)
Seventy-one teams were eliminated in the first three editions, and now another 24 have joined the fold.
None of these teams have any sort of a path into the bracket and are now just fighting to make the most of their season. Through eight weeks, 95 schools have been eliminated and just 39 teams remain.
Latest 24 Going Home: Arizona, Arizona State, Arkansas, Coastal Carolina, Florida, Iowa, James Madison, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan, Nebraska, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon State, Rutgers, San Jose State, Texas State, UCF, USC, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia
Eliminated in Edition 3: Appalachian State, Baylor, Boston College, Bowling Green, California, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, South Florida, Stanford, TCU, UTSA, Western Kentucky
Eliminated in Edition 2: Arkansas State, Auburn, Ball State, Colorado State, East Carolina, Houston, Kansas, Florida State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Miami (OH), Minnesota, Mississippi State, NC State, Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, UL Monroe, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
Eliminated in Edition 1: Air Force, Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State, Hawaii, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State (ineligible as it transitions to FBS), Kent State, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Ohio, Old Dominion, Rice, Sam Houston, San Diego State, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Temple, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, Western Michigan, Wyoming.
