We're back for the third edition of what will be a regular column all the way until the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is officially unveiled on Sunday, Dec. 8.
We are in uncharted territory with 2024 marking the first year of an expanded postseason that will triple the number of schools that will have an opportunity to compete for a National Championship.
As with every edition, I've sorted teams into different tiers based on their likelihood of qualifying for the playoff. I'll also discuss their “To Make the Playoff” odds and evaluate whether or not I see value on any teams based on those numbers. All odds are via DraftKings as of Tuesday morning.
Additionally, as I've done in the past, I'll slowly eliminate teams that no longer have any pathway to the playoff. We started the year with 133 hopefuls (Kennesaw State is ineligible for the postseason as it transitions to FBS), but that number will decrease all the way down to the mid-teens before selection day.
A quick reminder on the new format — the four highest-ranked conference champions receive an auto-bid, top-four seed and bye into the quarterfinal round. The fifth-highest ranked conference champ, presumably the top Group of Five team, receives an auto-bid into the first round.
The remaining seven entrants will be at-large bids based on the final committee rankings on Dec. 8.
Without further ado, let’s dive into some College Football Playoff futures and picks in this edition on Playoff Palooza.
Tier 1: In the CFP Driver’s Seat (7 Teams)
For the first time all season, there's a team in the "Driver's Seat" that has suffered a loss. Alabama and Georgia played a classic in Tuscaloosa, and that loss won't hurt Georgia much in the long run.
Meanwhile, the SEC trio of Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Kentucky pulled off major upsets over the last two weeks, which sent three big name SEC teams down a notch.
Any team in the “Driver’s Seat” tier throughout the year would qualify for the playoff if the season ended at that moment.
Texas Longhorns (-1000 to Make CFP)
Texas isn't worth a wager at this number, but it feels like the Longhorns can put themselves in a different level of safety for a playoff spot with a win over Oklahoma this week.
This is the only SEC team still undefeated and loaded on both sides of the ball.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Oklahoma (neutral), vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M
Ohio State Buckeyes (-1600)
Like Texas, the number is too inflated already, but Ohio State has a chance to all but guarantee a playoff berth if it can secure a win in Eugene on Saturday night.
That game will give the winner a clear path to the Big Ten Championship game.
Plus, the Buckeyes proved to be dominant against Iowa.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Oregon, vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, vs. Indiana, vs. Michigan
Oregon Ducks (-700)
Oregon has started to look the part after a somewhat sluggish start to the year, and the Boise State win continues to age like fine wine.
A win over OSU would obviously be massive for the Ducks' Big Ten title hopes, but even with a loss, this team should be well-positioned the rest of the way.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ohio State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington
Penn State Nittany Lions (-300)
The Nittany Lions have a very important game this week at USC.
A win gives them even more breathing room heading into the stretch run, while a loss puts additional pressure on the showdown with Ohio State later in the year.
James Franklin's team has yet to really be tested, but I think that changes on Saturday.
Toughest Remaining Games: at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, at Washington
Georgia Bulldogs (-450)
I think this number is a little bit too high following the loss to Alabama and wouldn't fault anyone looking to take a "No" dart on UGA to miss the playoff.
The Bulldogs have two very tough road games still on the schedule in Texas and Ole Miss and then also host Tennessee. If Georgia were to drop two more, the debate for them to still be a playoff team at 9-3 would be very interesting.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee
Miami Hurricanes (-300)
What a comeback it was for the Hurricanes late Saturday night in Berkeley.
The schedule continues to be extremely manageable, so that escape was crucial to give the Canes some margin for error. You'd have to think Miami gets in if it doesn't lose more than once, even if it were to come to Clemson in the ACC Championship game.
This number feels right for now.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Louisville, vs. Florida State, at Syracuse
Iowa State Cyclones (+180)
Matt Campbell's team continues to fly under the radar, but it has been the most consistent team in the Big 12 to date.
The Cyclones have important test this week in Morgantown against a West Virginia team that's also still undefeated in Big 12 play. Most of the other key games the rest of the way take place in Ames.
Toughest Remaining Games: at West Virginia, vs. UCF, vs. Texas Tech, at Utah, vs. Kansas State
Tier 2: On the Cusp of the CFP (10)
This group is reserved for teams that have shown promise and have a pathway in front of them to make their way into the 12-team pack.
They’re far from a lock to make the bracket, but the road is there based on how they perform in swing games later in the season.
Alabama Crimson Tide (-600)
Am I actually recommending wagers on both Alabama and Georgia to miss the playoff? At these numbers, indeed I am.
When you look at the Tide's remaining schedule and how poor the defense has looked at times, there are plenty of losable games still out there.
The Georgia win will go a long way, but a 9-3 record that includes a loss to Vanderbilt would put Alabama right on the bubble.
Plus, they have difficult trips to Knoxville, Baton Rouge and Norman remaining, and things seem to always get weird in the Iron Bowl against Auburn.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Tennessee, at LSU, at Oklahoma
BYU Cougars (+1200)
Talk about a candidate for surprise team of the year. BYU continues to just keep winning, and its nonconference win over SMU is looking better and better.
With the Big 12 winner receiving an auto-bid to the playoff, I could not fault anyone for backing the Cougars at 12-1 to get in.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF, at Utah
Clemson Tigers (-110)
I like Clemson to make the playoff at this number because I believe it's clearly the best team in the ACC. Yes, Miami is still undefeated, but I'd love the Tigers' chances to take out the Canes if the two were to meet in Charlotte for the title.
Clemson could also slip once in the regular season and still be playing for an auto-bid, giving this number even more value.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Louisville, at Virginia Tech, at Pittsburgh, vs. South Carolina
Indiana Hoosiers (+400)
The Hoosiers are flat-out for real. One of only three teams still yet to trail on the season, this offense led by Kurtis Rourke is putting up incredibly efficient numbers.
Indiana may be favored in every game the rest of the way aside from the trip to Columbus, giving value to this number at 4-1. If IU can get to 11-1, even with a weak schedule, I don't see a Big Ten team being left out.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Ohio State
LSU Tigers (+220)
I believe the Tigers are far too flawed defensively to make a serious push toward a playoff spot. There are too many tough games remaining against offenses that should be able to put up serious numbers against LSU.
That said, a win this week over Ole Miss would certainly create a more feasible path.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, at Oklahoma
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-150)
The Week 1 win at Texas A&M is looking better and better for Notre Dame, and it needs to given that a loss to Northern Illinois is also on the resume.
The Irish will be significant favorites in every game until the finale at USC.
There's no margin for error moving forward, but an 11-1 finish feels doable. This number is pretty spot-on as of this moment.
Toughest Remaining Games: at Navy, vs. Army, at USC
Ole Miss Rebels (-120)
I think a 10-2 or an 11-1 finish gets Ole Miss comfortably in, whereas a 9-3 finish would put Lane Kiffin's team in a dicey spot.
Thus, the Rebels can likely afford just one more loss. I still believe this is a top-three team in the SEC, so I trust it to either win at LSU or beat Georgia in Oxford.
Give me Ole Miss at -120 to make the playoff.
Toughest Remaining Games: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia
Pitt Panthers (+3500)
Another surprise team that has come out of nowhere and is still perfect on the year. This number is still this high for a reason, however.
Pitt has done a nice job of finding a way to win against opponents in its weight class, but this team is definitely a tier or two below the top in the country.
I see the Panthers dropping at least two games in ACC play as the year progresses, which would likely keep them out of the ACC Championship game. I can't fault anyone taking a chance at a number this big, but I don't see Pitt in the playoff.
Toughest Remaining Games: at SMU, vs. Clemson, at Louisville
Tennessee Volunteers (+100)
The Vols were somewhat exposed Saturday night in Fayetteville and now have their work cut out for them.
Alabama and Georgia will both desperately need wins when they face Tennessee later in the year, and Josh Heupel's team likely needs to win one of them to create a playoff worthy resume. A pass for me at this number.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Alabama, vs. Kentucky, at Georgia
Texas A&M Aggies (+150)
The Aggies won the SEC schedule lottery, avoiding the likes of Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee. That has in turn created a scenario where A&M could be playing Texas to end the year with a trip to the SEC title game on the line.
Heck, if it could handle business against LSU in College Station and survive road games at South Carolina and Auburn, A&M could lose to Texas and still sneak into that game. This number feels right for now, but keep an eye on the Aggies.
Toughest Remaining Games: vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. Texas
Tier 3: College Football Playoff Dark Horses (11)
With still so much season ahead of us, there are plenty of power conference teams still in the fold with optimism they could go on a special run to get into the playoff mix.
Here’s a list of those teams ranked by my confidence level on their respective chances. The Big 12 has the most representatives given that league is wide open and the winner will secure an auto bid.
| Team | CFP Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. SMU | +450 |
| 2. Texas Tech | +700 |
| 3. Kansas State | +200 |
| 4. Utah | +220 |
| 5. West Virginia | +700 |
| 6. Colorado | +800 |
| 7. Nebraska | +1800 |
| 8. Illinois | +2400 |
| 9. Oklahoma | +1500 |
| 10. Washington | +8000 |
| 11. Syracuse | +5000 |
Tier 4: Group of Five CFP Hopefuls (16)
A reminder that the highest-ranked Group of Five champ gets an auto-bid to the playoff and a chance to advance to the quarters.
This list will update constantly throughout the year, but here are my current power rankings of the teams most likely to nab that bid. I’ve got 16 G5 teams still alive through six weeks.
| Team | CFP Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Boise State | +150 |
| 2. Tulane | +500 |
| 3. Liberty | +500 |
| 4. Navy | +3000 |
| 5. Army | +2000 |
| 6. Memphis | +1000 |
| 7. Toledo | +2500 |
| 8. Louisiana | +2000 |
| 9. UNLV | +1500 |
| 10. Northern Illinois | +3500 |
| 11. James Madison | +2000 |
| 12. North Texas | +10000 |
| 13. Coastal Carolina | +10000 |
| 14. San Jose State | +25000 |
| 15. Texas State | +3000 |
| 16. Georgia Southern | +30000 |
Tier 5: Hanging By a Thread (19)
Either due to early losses or poor performance on the field, each team here is on life support. It’s difficult to imagine any road toward playoff contention, but there aren't quite enough data points to fully eliminate them.
- Arizona
- Arizona State
- Arkansas
- Cincinnati
- Duke
- Florida
- Iowa
- Kentucky
- Louisville
- Michigan
- Missouri
- Oregon State
- Rutgers
- UCF
- USC
- Virginia
- Virginia Tech
- Washington State
- Wisconsin
Tier 6: Eliminated From the College Football Playoff (71)
Fifty-four teams were eliminated in the first two editions, and now another 17 have joined the fold.
None of these teams have any sort of a path into the bracket and are now just fighting to make the most of their season. Through six weeks, 71 schools have been eliminated and 63 teams remain.
Latest 17 Going Home: Appalachian State, Baylor, Boston College, Bowling Green, California, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, South Florida, Stanford, TCU, UTSA, Western Kentucky
Eliminated in Edition 2: Arkansas State, Auburn, Ball State, Colorado State, East Carolina, Houston, Kansas, Florida State, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Miami (OH), Minnesota, Mississippi State, NC State, Northwestern, Purdue, UCLA, UL Monroe, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
Eliminated in Edition 1: Air Force, Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State, Hawaii, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State (ineligible as it transitions to FBS), Kent State, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Ohio, Old Dominion, Rice, Sam Houston, San Diego State, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Temple, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, Western Michigan, Wyoming.
