College Football Playoff Futures: Top Picks & Eliminated Teams Ahead of Week 3

Welcome to the first edition of what will be a regular column all the way until the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is officially unveiled on Sunday, Dec. 8.

We're in uncharted territory with 2024 marking the first year of an expanded postseason that will triple the number of schools that will have the opportunity to compete for a National Championship.

In each edition, I'll be sorting teams into different tiers based on their likelihood of qualifying for the playoff. I'll also be discussing their “To Make the Playoff” odds and discussing whether or not I see any value on respective teams based on those numbers (all odds are via DraftKings).

Additionally, as I have done before, I will slowly be eliminating teams with each edition that no longer have any pathway to the playoff.

We started the year with 133 hopefuls (Kennesaw State is ineligible for the postseason while making the transition from FCS to FBS), but that number will eventually drop down to the mid-teens before Selection Sunday.

A quick reminder on the new format — the four highest-ranked conference champions receive an auto bid, top-four seed and bye into the quarterfinal round. The fifth highest-ranked conference champ, presumably the top Group of Five champ, receives an auto bid into the first round.

The remaining seven entrants will be at-large bids based on the final committee rankings on Dec. 8.

Without further ado, let’s get into the first edition of my College Football Playoff futures in Week 3 Playoff Palooza.

Tier 1: In the CFP Driver’s Seat (8)

It's important to note that this early in the year, teams can fall out of this tier quickly. Just ask Notre Dame.

Through two weeks, each of these teams has been dominant and are well-positioned to continue to win throughout the year. Any team in the “Driver’s Seat” tier throughout the year would qualify for the playoff if the season ended today.

Georgia Bulldogs (-750 to Make CFP)

The Bulldogs don’t need much of an introduction. Georgia is the No. 1-ranked team in America and is 40-0 in its last 40 regular-season games.

Once again loaded with talent, Kirby Smart’s team is heavily juiced to make the playoff in part because of its talent and in part because it could afford a couple of losses with a loaded SEC schedule.

I don’t recommend a wager at this juiced of a number, but it’s hard to see any scenario where Georgia is not among the final 12.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee

Ohio State Buckeyes (-750)

Just like Georgia, there’s no value at this number, but the Buckeyes appear very well-positioned to make the postseason.

This is the most talented roster in the Big Ten, and with early struggles from Oregon and Michigan, this schedule looks even more manageable.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Iowa, at Oregon, vs. Nebraska, at Penn State, Michigan

Texas Longhorns (-450)

The Longhorns made a statement last Saturday, going into the Big House and dominating Michigan from start to finish.

Texas qualified for the final version of the four-team playoff last year and appears well on its way to making the expanded version in 2024.

I’ll pass at this number and would rather look at the Horns at +260 to win the SEC.

Toughest Remaining Games: Oklahoma (neutral), vs. Georgia, at Texas A&M

Oregon Ducks (-330)

The Ducks have two wins, but it hasn’t exactly been the start Oregon fans were hoping for. Boise State outgained Dan Lanning’s team in Eugene on Saturday and easily could have won that game.

The Ducks were also sloppy in the opener against Idaho and have been the least impressive team in this top tier so far. There's plenty of time to clean it up, but I want no part of this number right now.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ohio State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Washington

Penn State Nittany Lions (-220)

The Nittany Lions were impressive in an opening win at West Virginia before being tested last week against a scrappy Bowling Green team.

The schedule is very manageable with two big tests — one on the road at USC and one at home to OSU. Get a split in those. and James Franklin’s team is likely on its way to the bracket. I’ll pass for now.

Toughest Remaining Games: at USC, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, vs. Washington

Ole Miss Rebels (-200)

I’ve been really impressed with the Rebels thus far, and this is the first team I’d recommend placing a wager on to get to the playoff.

Jaxson Dart is a legitimate Heisman candidate, and this offense is as explosive as any in America. This felt like a “put up or shut up” year for Lane Kiffin, and thus, far his team is answering the bell.

Toughest Remaining Games: at LSU, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Georgia

Alabama Crimson Tide (-175)

With Nick Saban no longer roaming the sidelines, the Crimson Tide have flown a little bit under the radar thus far.

Jalen Milroe’s return gives new head coach Kalen DeBoer one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country, and there's still loads of talent on this roster. I’ll hold for now and will be interested to see how Bama performs on the road in Madison this week.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU, at Oklahoma

Miami Hurricanes (-150)

This is not a team I would've been expected to be in the "Driver’s Seat" tier at the beginning of the year, but the Canes made a statement in Gainesville.

Additionally, with the early struggles of the ACC, Miami is now the clear favorite in that conference with a great chance to secure an auto bid.

I’d recommend playing Miami at -150 to make the playoff. This is the best team in the ACC right now, and the schedule is very doable.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Cal, at Louisville, vs. Florida State, at Syracuse

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Tier 2: On the Cusp of CFP Contention (7)

This group is reserved for teams that have shown promise and have a pathway in front of them to navigate into the 12-team pack.

They’re far from a certainty to make the bracket, but the road is there based on how they perform in swing games later in the season.

Tennessee Volunteers (+100)

The Vols looked unbelievable Saturday in a 51-10 beatdown of NC State. Nico Iamaleava is living up to the hype and then some. At even-money, give me the Vols as the third team I’d endorse taking a wager on to make the 12-team bracket.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Oklahoma, vs. Alabama, at Georgia

Missouri Tigers (+155)

Missouri got one of the more favorable schedule draws in the SEC, which can be a blessing and a curse. The Tigers will have easier opponents to maneuver but also fewer chances at signature wins.

Hold for now, as Mizzou has been untested through two weeks.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Texas A&M, at Alabama, vs. Oklahoma

Utah Utes (+200)

The Utes won an ugly game against Baylor and also saw star quarterback Cam Rising leave the game with a hand injury. It appears to not be too serious, which is critical because Utah really struggled to move the ball once he departed last season.

I don't have any real thoughts on the Utes until I see how they fare early in Big 12 play.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, vs. Iowa State, at UCF

USC Trojans (+200)

At odds of 2-1, I see value on the Trojans to make the bracket.

Quarterback Miller Moss was phenomenal in the opening week win over LSU and showed no signs of letting up against Utah State in Week 2.

The game at Michigan no longer appears as daunting, and home tilts with Penn State and Notre Dame offer plenty of upside.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Michigan, vs. Penn State, vs. Nebraska, vs. Notre Dame

Kansas State Wildcats (+300)

The Wildcats had their hands full with Tulane on Saturday but found a way to pull through. They're still one of the clear favorites in the Big 12 with a very manageable schedule in front of them. Definitely a team to monitor.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Arizona, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Kansas, at Iowa State

Oklahoma Sooners (+450)

This is basically the total opposite of Missouri's draw. Oklahoma has to face six of the top seven in the SEC.

After struggling with Houston in Norman, it’s just hard to see the Sooners being able to stay afloat with such a difficult path ahead. A record of 7-5 or 8-4 feels realistic, which wouldn’t even necessarily be a bad season but would not be nearly enough to get an at-large look.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Tennessee, Texas (neutral), at Ole Miss, at Missouri, vs. Alabama, at LSU

Oklahoma State Cowboys (+500)

Arkansas dominated the Pokes for much of the day on Saturday, but Mike Gundy’s team found a way as it typically does in Stillwater.

However, the injury to linebacker Collin Oliver really hurts an already somewhat thin defense. That said, the Pokes are still loaded on the offensive side and have a manageable Big 12 schedule.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU

Tier 3: Down But Not Out (6)

Each team in this tier is currently on the outside looking in after setbacks in the early portion of the season. There's still an opportunity to play their way back into the mix but minimal margin for error moving forward.

Clemson Tigers (+200)

Fortunately for the Tigers, they lost out of conference and still control their destiny in the ACC. The Georgia loss was ugly, but the Bulldogs can do that to teams, so all is not lost for Clemson — especially with the ACC continuing to struggle.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. NC State, at Florida State, at Virginia Tech, vs. South Carolina

LSU Tigers (+250)

Another opening weekend loss for Brian Kelly at LSU.

The Tigers let it slip away against USC in Vegas, and with a difficult SEC schedule ahead, the path to the bracket is now very difficult. That said, there are ample opportunities to add big resume wins on the SEC schedule.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, vs. Oklahoma

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+350)

After a great win in College Station, the Irish gave it all back and then some with a stunning home loss to Northern Illinois.

ND will now need to be perfect the rest of the way, including beating USC on the road in its final game of the regular season.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Purdue, vs. Louisville, vs. Florida State, at USC

Texas A&M Aggies (+450)

The Aggies are a team I'm somewhat high on to bounce back after the early Notre Dame loss.

There was reason to expect some rust in Mike Elko’s first game on the sidelines, but the schedule sets up for some opportunity to string together some wins and get back into the race.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. Missouri, vs. LSU, at South Carolina, vs. Texas

Michigan Wolverines (+550)

The Wolverines were outclassed by Texas at home. It shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given how much Michigan lost from last season.

With a difficult schedule ahead, I have a feeling the Wolverines won’t last in this tier much longer.

Toughest Remaining Games: vs. USC, vs. Oregon, at Indiana, at Ohio State

Iowa Hawkeyes (+600)

The Hawkeyes lost in the final seconds to in-state rival Iowa State and now leave themselves with no breathing room entering Big Ten play.

The good news is that other than a trip to Columbus, Iowa could be favored in every other Big Ten game.

Toughest Remaining Games: at Ohio State, at Michigan State, vs. Wisconsin, vs. Nebraska

Tier 4: College Football Playoff Dark Horses (33)

With still so much season ahead of us, there are plenty of power conference teams still unbeaten that are optimistic they could go on a special run to get into the playoff mix.

Here’s a list of them, ranked by my confidence level on their respective chances.

I tended to favor teams in the Big 12 and ACC, as the opportunity to take the auto-bid is far more feasible in those two leagues.

Tier 5: Group of Five CFP Hopefuls (30)

A reminder that the highest-ranked Group of Five champ gets an auto-bid to the playoff and a chance to advance to the quarters.

This list will update constantly throughout the year, but here are my current power rankings of the teams most likely to nab that bid.

Tier 6: Hanging By a Thread (16)

Either due to early losses or simply poor performance on the field, each team here is on life support. It’s difficult to imagine any road toward playoff contention, but there’s not quite enough data points to fully eliminate them.

• Arkansas
• Auburn
• Baylor
• Cincinnati
• Colorado
• Georgia Tech
• Florida
• Florida State
• Houston
• Maryland
• Minnesota
• Mississippi State
• Northwestern
• SMU
• Stanford
• Wake Forest

Tier 7: Eliminated From CFP Contention (34)

With 100 teams accounted for in the six tiers above, that leaves 34 teams remaining. You guessed it, those 34 have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.

Even if it has just been two weeks, all of these are Group of Five teams who have already lost at least once and don’t have much of a ceiling moving forward. Playoff dreams will have to wait until 2025.

Eliminated: Air Force, Akron, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Charlotte, Connecticut, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Georgia State, Hawaii, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State (ineligible as it transitions to FBS), Kent State, Massachusetts, Middle Tennessee State, Nevada, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Ohio, Old Dominion, Rice, Sam Houston, San Diego State, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Temple, Troy, Tulsa, UAB, Utah State, UTEP, Western Michigan, Wyoming.

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